NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 5

[NatP4]

Noah Clowney at 19 years old: 13.5 points 9.0 rebounds 1.8 assists 0.8 steals 1.1 blocks 1.4 turnovers 62% TS up to 39% from 3.

One of the 5 or so best players in the 2023 draft class. No one talking about him. This is exactly what Collin Murray-Boyles is going to be.

[NatP4]

Do we circle back on Jalen Green now? He had his hot stretch, now back down to earth.

When does everyone stop pretending he’s a star and acknowledge that he’s a bust and was an awful pick?

[tontoz]

Do we circle back on Jalen Green now? He had his hot stretch, now back down to earth.

When does everyone stop pretending he’s a star and acknowledge that he’s a bust and was an awful pick?

He's not a bust but you can say he has been disappointing so far. Busts don't average 20 ppg in back to back seasons. Very talented but bbiq is definitely suspect.

This is just year 3. Just look at how much Deni improved in year 4.

[nate33]

Do we circle back on Jalen Green now? He had his hot stretch, now back down to earth.

When does everyone stop pretending he’s a star and acknowledge that he’s a bust and was an awful pick?

Are you kidding?

Even factoring his rather mediocre last 6 games, the kid is averaging 27 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists in the last 14 games on a TS% of .599 with a +6.7 on/off differential.

I'd gladly trade our top 5 lotto pick for him. This is a guy who doesn't even know what he is doing yet and can still accumulate those numbers. I'd bet on that talent.

[nate33]

Since the halfway point of the season, he is averaging 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists on a .559 TS% and a +2.6 on/off differential. He turned 22 two months ago.

[NatP4]

Since the halfway point of the season, he is averaging 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists on a .559 TS% and a +2.6 on/off differential. He turned 22 two months ago.

And? Jordan Poole has better numbers than that in his last 20 games.

Green has a 54% TS 4 assists to 2.6 turnovers, is a huge liability on defense. This was an awful 2nd overall pick over Mobley, Barnes, Wagner, and Suggs.

I shouldn’t say bust. Yes, he puts up a bunch of points and is a NBA player. The narrative is that he’s some superstar. No way.

[NatP4]

He’s basically on the same trajectory as RJ Barrett, another top 3 pick.

Do we really think these guys are good draft picks? A few years ago, it was the Ayton, Bagley, Wiseman, Okafor types that were going top 3 and disappointing.

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

[nate33]

Since the halfway point of the season, he is averaging 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists on a .559 TS% and a +2.6 on/off differential. He turned 22 two months ago.

And? Jordan Poole has better numbers than that in his last 20 games.

Green has a 54% TS 4 assists to 2.6 turnovers, is a huge liability on defense. This was an awful 2nd overall pick over Mobley, Barnes, Wagner, and Suggs.

I shouldn’t say bust. Yes, he puts up a bunch of points and is a NBA player. The narrative is that he’s some superstar. No way.

Green has been better than Poole over the last 14, games, the last 20, the last 40 or the entire season - however you want to look at it. And he just turned 22. Poole is 24. And the thing is, Green does it through sheer physical gifts. He is only very slowly figuring out the game. He's got way more upside ahead of him.

Jalen Green's age-21 3rd-season numbers are almost exactly the same as Anthony Edwards. They posted the same per-possession numbers in points, rebounds and assists. Edwards was a bit more efficient as a shooter, but also more turnover prone. Green actually had the better ORtg. The advanced stats are all similar as well except Edwards was definitely better at DBPM. Like Edwards, Green is a total physical freak with unlimited upside if things just click for him like they did for Edwards this year.

https://stathead.com/tiny/6qqiw

[nate33]

He’s basically on the same trajectory as RJ Barrett, another top 3 pick.

Do we really think these guys are good draft picks? A few years ago, it was the Ayton, Bagley, Wiseman, Okafor types that were going top 3 and disappointing.

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

I think you give up on these guys if they show no signs of "getting it" by their third season. But I'd say that Green's third season definitely showed signs. He had a stretch where he was one of the best players in the league. He went 14 games in March averaging 29 points on a .618 TS%. It's one thing to do that for 3 games. But to do it for 14 games at age 22 means something.

Also, I don't really like the Barrett comp because Barrett is merely a good athlete. He's not a freak like Green. Green is a top 5 athlete in this league comparable to guys like Edwards and Amen.

[nate33]

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

Ivey is another guy that intrigues me because I think he might be obtainable at a reasonable price, and I think he has break out potential in the right situation.

[NatP4]

He’s basically on the same trajectory as RJ Barrett, another top 3 pick.

Do we really think these guys are good draft picks? A few years ago, it was the Ayton, Bagley, Wiseman, Okafor types that were going top 3 and disappointing.

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

I think you give up on these guys if they show no signs of "getting it" by their third season. But I'd say that Green's third season definitely showed signs. He had a stretch where he was one of the best players in the league. He went 14 games in March averaging 29 points on a .618 TS%. It's one thing to do that for 3 games. But to do it for 14 games at age 22 means something.

Also, I don't really like the Barrett comp because Barrett is merely a good athlete. He's not a freak like Green. Green is a top 5 athlete in this league comparable to guys like Edwards and Amen.

I’m not talking about giving up or not giving up on a player, I’m saying Green was the wrong pick. Franz Wagner is a significantly better player at the same age as Green. Same goes for Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. It’s a bad pick. Jalen Green is not a good player.

No one ever circles back on these guys because they always score a lot of points. People still think Jordan Poole is a good player. It’s too easy for people to claim that Colin Sexton is having some change of scenery breakout in Utah now.

Scoot over the Thompson twins was an awful pick as well. There is a clear theme here in my view. Drunk on upside.

[NatP4]

I will gladly take Ausar, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Suggs over Scoot, Ivey, and Jalen Green long term.

[tontoz]

Bucks vs Cs last night had only 2 fts combined.

[nate33]

He’s basically on the same trajectory as RJ Barrett, another top 3 pick.

Do we really think these guys are good draft picks? A few years ago, it was the Ayton, Bagley, Wiseman, Okafor types that were going top 3 and disappointing.

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

I think you give up on these guys if they show no signs of "getting it" by their third season. But I'd say that Green's third season definitely showed signs. He had a stretch where he was one of the best players in the league. He went 14 games in March averaging 29 points on a .618 TS%. It's one thing to do that for 3 games. But to do it for 14 games at age 22 means something.

Also, I don't really like the Barrett comp because Barrett is merely a good athlete. He's not a freak like Green. Green is a top 5 athlete in this league comparable to guys like Edwards and Amen.

I’m not talking about giving up or not giving up on a player, I’m saying Green was the wrong pick. Franz Wagner is a significantly better player at the same age as Green. Same goes for Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. It’s a bad pick. Jalen Green is not a good player.

No one ever circles back on these guys because they always score a lot of points. People still think Jordan Poole is a good player. It’s too easy for people to claim that Colin Sexton is having some change of scenery breakout in Utah now.

Scoot over the Thompson twins was an awful pick as well. There is a clear theme here in my view. Drunk on upside.

Franz Wagner's third year slump is a cause for concern. He was infinitely better than guys like Green and Kuminga in his first 2 seasons, but those guys made a BIG leap in Year 3 while Franz has plateaued a bit. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Franz will have a better career than Green and Kuminga.

And to be fair, I think the Suggs preference was also a bet on upside - that his elite athleticism and in-game effort would eventually overwhelm his relatively limited offensive skillset.

[nate33]

I will gladly take Ausar, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Suggs over Scoot, Ivey, and Jalen Green long term.

I like Suggs best among that group, but I'd take Green next and probably Ivey third.

But there's also the risk reward calculation. While I agree with you that Ausar, Daniels and Suggs are surer bets to be reliable rotation players for a longer period of time, but the problem is, reliable rotation players aren't as helpful as stars. At this stage of the Wizards rebuild, I'd rather take a 25% gamble on a guy like Green panning out to be an Anthony Edwards tier primary scoring option than the 75% chance that Dyson Daniels pans out as a 5th starter on a good team.

[deneem4]

I will gladly take Ausar, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Suggs over Scoot, Ivey, and Jalen Green long term.

I like Suggs best among that group, but I'd take Green next and probably Ivey third.

But there's also the risk reward calculation. While I agree with you that Ausar, Daniels and Suggs are surer bets to be reliable rotation players for a longer period of time, but the problem is, reliable rotation players aren't as helpful as stars. At this stage of the Wizards rebuild, I'd rather take a 25% gamble on a guy like Green panning out to be an Anthony Edwards tier primary scoring option than the 75% chance that Dyson Daniels pans out as a 5th starter on a good team.

I don’t see him being an antman but I’m with you Nate…
Green ceiling is extremely high

[NatP4]

I will gladly take Ausar, Dyson Daniels, and Jalen Suggs over Scoot, Ivey, and Jalen Green long term.

I like Suggs best among that group, but I'd take Green next and probably Ivey third.

But there's also the risk reward calculation. While I agree with you that Ausar, Daniels and Suggs are surer bets to be reliable rotation players for a longer period of time, but the problem is, reliable rotation players aren't as helpful as stars. At this stage of the Wizards rebuild, I'd rather take a 25% gamble on a guy like Green panning out to be an Anthony Edwards tier primary scoring option than the 75% chance that Dyson Daniels pans out as a 5th starter on a good team.

There’s no way you are taking Ivey over Ausar Thompson. Ivey is flat out terrible right now. He’s one of the 3 worst defensive guards in the league, and a tunnel vision inefficient scorer on O. I guess we will see the direction that Detroit goes in.

But primary option star can also come from the latter “approach” if you want to call it that. That’s how you get a Tyrese Haliburton (at 12th overall), while James Wiseman goes 2nd overall.

Or Franz Wagner at 8th. Not sure about a 3rd year slump. He’s posting 22 points 6 rebounds 4 assists 2 turnovers on 57.5% TS. High level versatile defender. Better numbers than Green and a significantly better defender. Same age. People questioned his upside pre-draft, labeled him a role player. He’s better than Green by a fair amount.

[NatP4]

And I’m not just talking about boom or bust prospects. Half of it is an archetype thing. Not a fan of the scoring 2 guards that are too small to guard wings, and not good enough playmakers to be true point guards.

[Kanyewest]

He’s basically on the same trajectory as RJ Barrett, another top 3 pick.

Do we really think these guys are good draft picks? A few years ago, it was the Ayton, Bagley, Wiseman, Okafor types that were going top 3 and disappointing.

Now teams have backed off on the bigs, and are looking for the high upside guards and it has resulted in Barrett, Green, Scoot Henderson, Ivey. I get that every once in awhile you get an Anthony Edwards, but that’s the exception not the norm.

I think you give up on these guys if they show no signs of "getting it" by their third season. But I'd say that Green's third season definitely showed signs. He had a stretch where he was one of the best players in the league. He went 14 games in March averaging 29 points on a .618 TS%. It's one thing to do that for 3 games. But to do it for 14 games at age 22 means something.

Also, I don't really like the Barrett comp because Barrett is merely a good athlete. He's not a freak like Green. Green is a top 5 athlete in this league comparable to guys like Edwards and Amen.

Random note, RJ has been playing much better with Toronto. He is shooting a career best 40% from 3 with a 60.7 TS%. I agree though that Green may have more upside although I wonder if he can keep up this kind of production whenever Sengun returns back to the lineup.

[tontoz]

As the Knicks were completing their comeback win against the nets Breen says "Brunson is the kind of player Knicks fans have waited a long time for". Then Clyde Frazier says " since a guy named Clyde"