Corey Kispert, Wizards Sniper.

[doclinkin]

Kispert is entering his 3rd year, and traditionally, this is when we expect a young player to take a "leap", if he is going to amount to something. We already saw some nice stats for him in the last 15 games of the season. If he is able to keep that going, there is no reason why he cant be starter quality in the league. We havent really been hearing about him in the off season. What is he doing to improve his game? Very little talk about him (excluding the trade thread), so he really is going under the radar. Could be a surprise for us in store! Maybe he comes in much improved....

Kispert got married over the summer. He said he was going to take a large chunk of the summer off, for that event and for a stretch of time afterwards before heading back to the lab to work on his game before training camp. He may not have put in as much work this summer as he did in prior summers. You know. But I agree it would be interesting to see if he can add to his game. Laterality. Ballhandling. Additional range on that jumper, or a fake and move he can use vs. a hard close-out. I suspect his insane efficiency will be hard to maintain the better he gets and the more attention he attracts. Mostly though I want him to be in the gym with Tyus Jones and Jordan Poole since chemistry with those two will help him more than any individual improvements.

[mhd]

Robbins just did another of his anonymous scouts on Kispert. Pretty much what we expected.

https://theathletic.com/4895025/2023/09/25/corey-kispert-nba-scouts-evaluate/

Some interesting tidbits:

"Scout B said: “The one thing you want to look for often with young guys is: Does he have an elite skill? Does he have something that the coaches can rely on? (Does he have a skill where) they can say, ‘We’re going to put him out there and we know for sure he can do this.’ And Corey does, right? No one’s going to question his ability to shoot.”"

"“He’s just done such a good job of playing to his strengths and attempting to hide his weaknesses,” Scout D said. “The whole league is looking for these guys that can move off the ball and get into 3-point shots. He can do that. He limits himself. He doesn’t operate outside of that little bubble, and he can be a pretty valuable player on a good team that has a lot of ballhandling and playing off of the star-level players. He’s almost been (expertly prepared) to play with good players because of his college experience.”"

"“For any number of teams, I’m sure, that are short on shooting and have dynamic playmakers, he’s an ideal fit,” Scout A said. “That’s probably a wide range of teams who could use his profile.”"

"“Being able to figure out how to be a good team defender is what I think would really help Corey,” Scout C said. “Teams will try to attack him, isolate him, which is just kind of the nature of the beast depending on who else is out there with him. But I think that he was fairly solid as a positional defender, and he’s got good size. As he gets more experience, I think that he has a chance not to be a weak link on that side of the ball.”"

[Lucky Once]

https://youtu.be/fl6krm7PveM?si=8ewvNjji1F9FO62V

Skip to the last 10 seconds or so for a shout out to Corey Kispert.

[pancakes3]

https://youtu.be/fl6krm7PveM?si=8ewvNjji1F9FO62V

Skip to the last 10 seconds or so for a shout out to Corey Kispert.

lol, i just saw this and was going to post it.

[tontoz]

On the season Kispert is averaging 19.7 per 36 with a TS of 62.7%. His 3 pt shot has been inconsistent but he is having a lot of success attacking the rim.

[nate33]

On the season Kispert is averaging 19.7 per 36 with a TS of 62.7%. His 3 pt shot has been inconsistent but he is having a lot of success attacking the rim.

Kispert is raising the cost of his extension with this play. And you're right, that 3-ball is actually probably at a fluke low relative to his likely career percentage. If he shot 40% from 3 like he is presumably capable of, he would be averaging exactly one more point per 36 (20.7) and his TS% would be .660.

20.7 points at a .660 TS% without needing to dominate possessions is pretty damn good. Guys like Hauser and Grayson Allen are similarly as efficient, but are only posting 13-14 points per 36. Honestly, the best comparisons I could find of him offensively are Lauri Markkanen (23.7 points on a.650 TS%) and Norman Powell (19.4 points of .638 TS%).

[tontoz]

I have thought for years that Powell was underrated.

[pcbothwel]

We NEED to lock him up. He keeps showing improvements, offensively, much like Beal did early on. It’s staring us in the face. The guy is a 23/5/3 (per36) player on a 60% TS. Don’t overthink it.

[nate33]

We NEED to lock him up. He keeps showing improvements, offensively, much like Beal did early on. It’s staring us in the face. The guy is a 23/5/3 (per36) player on a 60% TS. Don’t overthink it.

I definitely think they will try to lock him up to a contract similar to Avdija's. It'll be interesting to see who costs more.

Avdija had more theoretical upside, but at the time of negotiations, his development had stagnated. It was still plausible that he would pan out as a mere NBA journeyman role player - a 9th man or 10th man available for sub-MLE money; but it was also plausible that he would figure out how to shoot and become a really good role player capable of being a 4th starter on a playoff team.

Kispert was easily more productive in his 3rd season. He has a concrete floor as a 7th man instant offense guy who will absolutely help you win games in the regular season. But at the same there is the relatively high likelihood that he will never be a league average defender and he will always get targeted defensively in the playoffs - rendering him to be somewhat useless on an actual contender. Will he ever be a starter on a .500 team? Should you pay anything more than MLE type money for a guy who will never be a starter?

[pcbothwel]

We NEED to lock him up. He keeps showing improvements, offensively, much like Beal did early on. It’s staring us in the face. The guy is a 23/5/3 (per36) player on a 60% TS. Don’t overthink it.

I definitely think they will try to lock him up to a contract similar to Avdija's. It'll be interesting to see who costs more.

Avdija had more theoretical upside, but at the time of negotiations, his development had stagnated. It was still plausible that he would pan out as a mere NBA journeyman role player - a 9th man or 10th man available for sub-MLE money; but it was also plausible that he would figure out how to shoot and become a really good role player capable of being a 4th starter on a playoff team.

Kispert was easily more productive in his 3rd season. He has a concrete floor as a 7th man instant offense guy who will absolutely help you win games in the regular season. But at the same there is the relatively high likelihood that he will never be a league average defender and he will always get targeted defensively in the playoffs - rendering him to be somewhat useless on an actual contender. Will he ever be a starter on a .500 team? Should you pay anything more than MLE type money for a guy who will never be a starter?

He’s a Powell/Eric Gordon/Bojan Bogdanovic level player right now. Zero question. That is, objectively, worth 17-20M/year. His defense is only a problem if you don’t give him enough shots on offense. Remember, whatever offensive player a team tries to target Kispert with has to guard kispert on the other end. If you get his usage at 22-25%, then I’ll take that trade off.

Again, the biggest issue with Kisperts defense is the fact that he doesn’t shoot enough i.e. The other team gets to target him defensively at a higher rate than he gets to exploit his strengths.

[NatP4]

20-4-2.6 on 63% TS and 99 percentile team culture/intangibles guy.

He’s managed to be a productive/efficient player on a dumpster fire team that has been very unserious about winning for years. Throw him on a contending team that plays actual team defense, and he is absolutely a starting caliber player.

When this team eventually adds more ball dominant play makers (Topic), Kispert will shine.

[WallToWall]

I don't have number to back this… I do think he has been improving on the defensive side. I see altered shots, and stops. He has harried many of the offensive players he is guarding over the last 8 games. There seems to be a marked difference in my eye test. Again, no numbers to back this up.

[DCZards]

Really impressed by how much better Kispert has gotten at taking defenders off the dribble.

[Wizardspride]

Really impressed by how much better Kispert has gotten at taking defenders off the dribble.

Similar to the development Bradley Beal showed imo.

[tontoz]

In the 25 games since the AS break he is shooting 42.3% from 3 so it's good to see that getting back to where it should be.

On the season he's averaging 19 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%.

[nate33]

In the 25 games since the AS break he is shooting 42.3% from 3 so it's good to see that getting back to where it should be.

On the season he's averaging 19 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%.

Kispert has gone on a post All-Star break tear in each of his 3 seasons, boosting his TS% and 3P% substantially.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2022
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2023
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2024

[SUPERBALLMAN]

In the 25 games since the AS break he is shooting 42.3% from 3 so it's good to see that getting back to where it should be.

On the season he's averaging 19 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%.

Kispert has gone on a post All-Star break tear in each of his 3 seasons, boosting his TS% and 3P% substantially.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2022
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2023
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2024

Gotta like Kispert, has found his role and does it well. He's always moving, plays hard, gets his teammates involved, and seems to be one of those dudes that just gets along with everyone. Seems to have developed good chemistry with Poole and Deni especially.

[doclinkin]

In the 25 games since the AS break he is shooting 42.3% from 3 so it's good to see that getting back to where it should be.

On the season he's averaging 19 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%.

Kispert has gone on a post All-Star break tear in each of his 3 seasons, boosting his TS% and 3P% substantially.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2022
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2023
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2024

It's a strategy, he lulls the scouts to sleep with a middling first half of the season, then right when they are completely ignoring him he goes on a tear for the irrelevant part of the season. Crafty like a fox.

[nate33]

In the 25 games since the AS break he is shooting 42.3% from 3 so it's good to see that getting back to where it should be.

On the season he's averaging 19 pts per 36 with a TS of 62%.

Kispert has gone on a post All-Star break tear in each of his 3 seasons, boosting his TS% and 3P% substantially.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2022
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2023
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kispeco01/splits/2024

It's a strategy, he lulls the scouts to sleep with a middling first half of the season, then right when they are completely ignoring him he goes on a tear for the irrelevant part of the season. Crafty like a fox.

Yeah, I didn't want to say anything, but there is a pretty compelling negative interpretation of his track record. The bottom line is that his production is best in games that don't matter.

[pancakes3]

well not only do his percentages go up, his attempts go up too, which is counter to that narrative. probably better explained that he's always been pretty good but has to defer to Beal, Kuzma, Poole, and even Porzyngis and Hachimura for shots early in the season.