Political Roundtable Part XXXII

[Fairview4Life]

Holy crap....nearly half of Democrats are succumbing to Putin's campaign of destruction:

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2024/shock-poll-trump-has-biggest-lead-since-2015-as-nearly-half-of-democrats-dont-want-biden-as-nominee-nyt/

https://www.salon.com/2024/03/05/there-is-something-at-the-new-york-times/

A favorite of poll skeptics is its sampling bias. How did the New York Times come up with a polling sample that included 36 percent rural voters when the 2020 proportion of rural voters was 19 percent? Somehow, the poll’s sample of female voters was equally skewed. The poll found Trump winning the female vote by one percent, when Biden carried women in 2020 by 11 points. The Times wants you to ignore that in between, all three of Trump’s Supreme Court justices quarterbacked the Dobbs decision overturning women’s constitutional right to abortion, followed almost immediately by states banning abortion all over the country, many with no exceptions for rape or incest. The Times doesn’t say how it squares its poll numbers with the fact that women turned out in huge numbers to help win referendums confirming a right to abortion, including in such Republican strongholds as Kansas and Kentucky, and handed every special election to Democratic candidates in the bargain. They just want you to believe there’s been a 12-point swing toward Trump among women, with no evidence except, poof! It happened!

The truly incredible thing is that the New York Times provides the evidence that would cause any other reasonable journalistic enterprise to question the accuracy of its own poll. The poll shows that Trump still has the support of nearly every Republican who voted for him in 2020 — this in the face of the fact that between 30 and 40 percent of primary voters have chosen another candidate than Trump. Those people are not poll respondents. They’re voters. The Times/Siena poll also somehow comes up with 12 percent support among Democrats for Rep. Dean Phillips, who has yet to get more than two percent of the vote in a primary. Even Phillips himself posted a tweet that said “When the NYT/Siena poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it’s flawed. Only 5% even know who I am.” The poll also shows that among respondents who described themselves as unhappy with both candidates, they favor Biden over Trump by 12 points. So Biden has the utterly disaffected vote and carries independents by four points, and he’s losing to Trump by four points?

But sure, the rural population as a % of the country doubled, and Trump is winning the women vote. You should definitely listen to those 980 people.

This is funny take. So you have a problem with the polling data...do you also have a problem with the data for the other 10 or so polls that have Trump ahead?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Keep grasping for straws buddy.

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

[TGW]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin . What's your opinion?

[dckingsfan]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

At least he is out in the open about being a Trump guy now... so there is that.

[Fairview4Life]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin :lol: . What's your opinion?

Hey, bad news, I polled 50 people I found in this one very blue area of the country and Biden is gonna win 90% of the vote. How can you not believe polling data? It's data!

Trump might win because a whole bunch of voters believe some version of the dumb **** you keep posting and are very stupid. Or there is a goldilocks combo of apathetic voters and motivated racists in the right locations around the country, like in 2016.

[pancakes3]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin . What's your opinion?

I think FV4L has made it very clear that he's disputing your assertion that biden is losing, so it's really not a fair question. it'd be like if someone asked you "were you born a disingenuous sack of crap, or was it a product of your upbringing?" When you build the conclusion into your question, it's kind of hard to answer.

[TGW]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin . What's your opinion?

Hey, bad news, I polled 50 people I found in this one very blue area of the country and Biden is gonna win 90% of the vote. How can you not believe polling data? It's data!

Trump might win because a whole bunch of voters believe some version of the dumb **** you keep posting and are very stupid. Or there is a goldilocks combo of apathetic voters and motivated racists in the right locations around the country, like in 2016.

Ok buddy. You're now joining PointDweeb on my list of blocked morons. Congrats!

[TGW]

...I have a problem with the poll you highlighted as a big problem for Biden because they have the rural population at 38% of the electorate and Trump winning the women vote, amongst other baffling issues. Those aren't straws. Those are gigantic buckets dumping water on your head. You don't have to be so desperate. I have no problem believing Trump might win the election in November in part thanks to the tireless work of unpaid volunteers like yourself, but that poll isn't saying what you think it's saying.

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin . What's your opinion?

I think FV4L has made it very clear that he's disputing your assertion that biden is losing, so it's really not a fair question. it'd be like if someone asked you "were you born a disingenuous sack of crap, or was it a product of your upbringing?" When you build the conclusion into your question, it's kind of hard to answer.

No he's not...he already accepted that Trump might win. He's saying that the polling data was bad on one poll because they polled 37% of rural voters vs. 19% (who the fk cares). He keeps harping on this to invalidate the poll when there's several polls showing Biden losing. It's the typical response mechanism by Democrats when people reject their premise that Biden is a good president. Deflect, deny, attack the data, attack the people showing the data, attack the people pointing out the obvious.

You people are no better than the Trump supporters tbh.

[Fairview4Life]

[pancakes3]

No the poll is saying exactly what is reality: Trump is beating Biden. You grasping at the polling sample to dispute that fact is typical Democrat nonsense: put your head in the sand and sulk in your tin foil conspiracy theories everytime someone says anything negative about Uncle Alzheimers.

I have a simple question for you: why is Biden losing? We already know DCK thinks it's all because of Putin . What's your opinion?

I think FV4L has made it very clear that he's disputing your assertion that biden is losing, so it's really not a fair question. it'd be like if someone asked you "were you born a disingenuous sack of crap, or was it a product of your upbringing?" When you build the conclusion into your question, it's kind of hard to answer.

No he's not...he already accepted that Trump might win. He's saying that the polling data was bad on one poll because they polled 37% of rural voters vs. 19% (who the fk cares). He keeps harping on this to invalidate the poll when there's several polls showing Biden losing. It's the typical response mechanism by Democrats when people reject their premise that Biden is a good president. Deflect, deny, attack the data, attack the people showing the data, attack the people pointing out the obvious.

You people are no better than the Trump supporters tbh.

Accepting that there's a chance that Trump might win isn't accepting that Trump will win, good lord.

And to answer your question, your real question, as to why Biden is a bad president? I haven't seen anyone argue with you on that. I personally have pointed out multiple things I have issues with Biden, so has Doc and other "Biden voters" on this board. You're the one that is deflecting and denying. Yeah, Biden stinks and so does Trump. Throwing a tantrum isn't helping, especially the way you're going about it.

To be honest, Biden's biggest political threat is probably arab voters in Michigan. There's a lot of them, supporting Israel in its war crimes is objectively the wrong foreign policy (understatement), and with every day that drags on, it's becoming too little too late to correct course. Free Gaza is also growing as not just an arab-american issue, and gaining broad national support. Wrap that all up with Michigan being a significant swing state, and it's spelling political disaster for Biden.

There's a really good chance that Fetterman doesn't win re-election in PA because of it also.

You should cool it with the both-sidesing too. It's not a good faith assertion, especially when you try to position yourself on a moral high ground relative to Dems and Republicans.

[Zonkerbl]

well, if I was a black person who lived in a police state no matter who the president was, and someone told me "omg you have to vote for Biden otherwise there will be a police state for white people" I would be tempted to tell them to go stuff it. That's fair, imho. Particularly if the black vote has saved democracy repeatedly over the past six years and the person we helped elect thinks he can take my vote for granted. I mean, goddammit man. That would make me mad. That would make me wonder what is the point of this whole stupid game. Especially when I see on the Republican side their extreme right wing getting coddled and getting everything they effing want. Get rid of abortion? You got it! We'll spend 40 years undermining democracy so you can have your way. And then on our side "omg please vote against Trump to save Democracy" Ok but what am I actually GETTING out of this? Are you actively defunding the police? Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt? I am your core constituent. I am the reason you got elected. Fricking woo me man. Make me want you.

[Fairview4Life]

Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt?

...yes? As much as they can get away with anyway. I feel like they should be pushing harder for a lot more things, but what they have done has made life appreciably better for the constituencies you're talking about. And, quite frankly, it is much better to vote for the lesser of two evils if you only have two actual options.

[dckingsfan]

Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt?

...yes? As much as they can get away with anyway. I feel like they should be pushing harder for a lot more things, but what they have done has made life appreciably better for the constituencies you're talking about. And, quite frankly, it is much better to vote for the lesser of two evils if you only have two actual options.

Or another way to say it...

Read on Twitter

[Silvie Lysandra]

well, if I was a black person who lived in a police state no matter who the president was, and someone told me "omg you have to vote for Biden otherwise there will be a police state for white people" I would be tempted to tell them to go stuff it. That's fair, imho. Particularly if the black vote has saved democracy repeatedly over the past six years and the person we helped elect thinks he can take my vote for granted. I mean, goddammit man. That would make me mad. That would make me wonder what is the point of this whole stupid game. Especially when I see on the Republican side their extreme right wing getting coddled and getting everything they effing want. Get rid of abortion? You got it! We'll spend 40 years undermining democracy so you can have your way. And then on our side "omg please vote against Trump to save Democracy" Ok but what am I actually GETTING out of this? Are you actively defunding the police? Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt? I am your core constituent. I am the reason you got elected. Fricking woo me man. Make me want you.

you're not a Black person, which is exactly why you would spout this drivel. Actual Black voters don't think this way, as opposed to entitled white progressives.

Anyway, every primary poll is overestimating Trump by 10+ points (including a 35 point miss in Vermont) and underestimating Biden by 10+ points. Let's pretend this has zero implications for the general.

[TGW]

well, if I was a black person who lived in a police state no matter who the president was, and someone told me "omg you have to vote for Biden otherwise there will be a police state for white people" I would be tempted to tell them to go stuff it. That's fair, imho. Particularly if the black vote has saved democracy repeatedly over the past six years and the person we helped elect thinks he can take my vote for granted. I mean, goddammit man. That would make me mad. That would make me wonder what is the point of this whole stupid game. Especially when I see on the Republican side their extreme right wing getting coddled and getting everything they effing want. Get rid of abortion? You got it! We'll spend 40 years undermining democracy so you can have your way. And then on our side "omg please vote against Trump to save Democracy" Ok but what am I actually GETTING out of this? Are you actively defunding the police? Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt? I am your core constituent. I am the reason you got elected. Fricking woo me man. Make me want you.

you're not a Black person, which is exactly why you would spout this drivel. Actual Black voters don't think this way, as opposed to entitled white progressives.

Anyway, every primary poll is overestimating Trump by 10+ points (including a 35 point miss in Vermont) and underestimating Biden by 10+ points. Let's pretend this has zero implications for the general.

To be fair, as a black voter I tend to somewhat agree with Zonker.

[pancakes3]

So Bubba can stick with republicans for 40 years to overturn Roe but black voters can't stick with Joe for 4?

[Zonkerbl]

Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt?

...yes? As much as they can get away with anyway. I feel like they should be pushing harder for a lot more things, but what they have done has made life appreciably better for the constituencies you're talking about. And, quite frankly, it is much better to vote for the lesser of two evils if you only have two actual options.

Every time someone says "vote for the lesser of two evils" a puppy dies. It's not enough! And not true! The War on Drugs that the Democrats were all gung ho about in the 90s has done an enormous amount of damage and, since the 70s, is arguably the main reason why black people's incomes haven't caught up with those of whites.

It's also disrespectful and dismissive. If you care that much about preventing Trump from being president, you would be willing to go to the mat to defund the police, decriminalize crack and heroin, forgive all student loan debt. Commit to those issues as much as the Republicans have committed to annihilating the Constitution.

[Fairview4Life]

Are you decriminalizing drugs? Are you forgiving student loan debt?

...yes? As much as they can get away with anyway. I feel like they should be pushing harder for a lot more things, but what they have done has made life appreciably better for the constituencies you're talking about. And, quite frankly, it is much better to vote for the lesser of two evils if you only have two actual options.

Every time someone says "vote for the lesser of two evils" a puppy dies. It's not enough! And not true! The War on Drugs that the Democrats were all gung ho about in the 90s has done an enormous amount of damage and, since the 70s, is arguably the main reason why black people's incomes haven't caught up with those of whites.

It's also disrespectful and dismissive. If you care that much about preventing Trump from being president, you would be willing to go to the mat to defund the police, decriminalize crack and heroin, forgive all student loan debt. Commit to those issues as much as the Republicans have committed to annihilating the Constitution.

Those issues, for as popular as we want them to be, are not that popular amongst the people that actually show up and vote, unfortunately. Defunding the police is not popular. Decriminalizing anything (except weed) is not really popular. Even forgiving all student loan debt isn't actually popular because a whole swath of the old people that actually run the country are petty **** at heart when they go to vote. I think a lot of that is a good idea, but doing those things isn't going to keep Trump from winning. it's also strange to think you'd get anything at all from Republicans on any of those issues.

[Zonkerbl]

So Bubba can stick with republicans for 40 years to overturn Roe but black voters can't stick with Joe for 4?

??? Show me a Democrat who has said, out loud, in public, "stick with me and I will deliver on my promise to defund the police. no matter how long it takes, I will be by your side" Not even ONE Democrat has ever said this, much less the entire party.

The entire Republican party promised evangelical Christians, loudly and publicly, that they would do everything in their power to overturn Roe v Wade. Dobbs was the culmination of 40 years of loudly proclaiming support, showing up at political rallies and promising they would do it, passing laws and training judges. There is NOTHING like that sort of commitment from the Democrats to defunding the police, decarceration, student loan forgiveness. It's a laughable comparison.

Compare that to what they've delivered for the LGBTQ+ community. What is the equivalent of Obergefell for the Dems core voting block?

[Fairview4Life]

So Bubba can stick with republicans for 40 years to overturn Roe but black voters can't stick with Joe for 4?

??? Show me a Democrat who has said, out loud, in public, "stick with me and I will deliver on my promise to defund the police. no matter how long it takes, I will be by your side" Not even ONE Democrat has ever said this, much less the entire party.

The entire Republican party promised evangelical Christians, loudly and publicly, that they would do everything in their power to overturn Roe v Wade. Dobbs was the culmination of 40 years of loudly proclaiming support, showing up at political rallies and promising they would do it, passing laws and training judges. There is NOTHING like that sort of commitment from the Democrats to defunding the police, decarceration, student loan forgiveness. It's a laughable comparison.

The democrats aren't in lockstep as a political party on all of those issues.

[Zonkerbl]

So Bubba can stick with republicans for 40 years to overturn Roe but black voters can't stick with Joe for 4?

??? Show me a Democrat who has said, out loud, in public, "stick with me and I will deliver on my promise to defund the police. no matter how long it takes, I will be by your side" Not even ONE Democrat has ever said this, much less the entire party.

The entire Republican party promised evangelical Christians, loudly and publicly, that they would do everything in their power to overturn Roe v Wade. Dobbs was the culmination of 40 years of loudly proclaiming support, showing up at political rallies and promising they would do it, passing laws and training judges. There is NOTHING like that sort of commitment from the Democrats to defunding the police, decarceration, student loan forgiveness. It's a laughable comparison.

The democrats aren't in lockstep as a political party on all of those issues.

:yoda voice: "And that... is why you fail"