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Political Roundtable Part XXXII

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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1441 » by Fairview4Life » Wed Mar 6, 2024 3:48 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
??? Show me a Democrat who has said, out loud, in public, "stick with me and I will deliver on my promise to defund the police. no matter how long it takes, I will be by your side" Not even ONE Democrat has ever said this, much less the entire party.

The entire Republican party promised evangelical Christians, loudly and publicly, that they would do everything in their power to overturn Roe v Wade. Dobbs was the culmination of 40 years of loudly proclaiming support, showing up at political rallies and promising they would do it, passing laws and training judges. There is NOTHING like that sort of commitment from the Democrats to defunding the police, decarceration, student loan forgiveness. It's a laughable comparison.


The democrats aren't in lockstep as a political party on all of those issues.


:yoda voice: "And that... is why you fail"


The constituencies of people that vote for democrats are not clamoring en masse for the police to be defunded or crack to be decriminalized.
9. Similarly, IF THOU HAST SPENT the entire offseason predicting that thy team will stink, thou shalt not gloat, nor even be happy, shouldst thou turn out to be correct. Realistic analysis is fine, but be a fan first, a smug smarty-pants second.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1442 » by pancakes3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 4:01 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
Fairview4Life wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
??? Show me a Democrat who has said, out loud, in public, "stick with me and I will deliver on my promise to defund the police. no matter how long it takes, I will be by your side" Not even ONE Democrat has ever said this, much less the entire party.

The entire Republican party promised evangelical Christians, loudly and publicly, that they would do everything in their power to overturn Roe v Wade. Dobbs was the culmination of 40 years of loudly proclaiming support, showing up at political rallies and promising they would do it, passing laws and training judges. There is NOTHING like that sort of commitment from the Democrats to defunding the police, decarceration, student loan forgiveness. It's a laughable comparison.


The democrats aren't in lockstep as a political party on all of those issues.


:yoda voice: "And that... is why you fail"


Bernie's been trying to Eat the Rich for 35 years. Dems don't wanna hear it because the tent's too big.

But to the original point, is it a candidate problem (like you said, Biden has no full throated platforms) or is it a voter problem (like FV4L and you point out, there are too many platforms to commit to)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1443 » by Fairview4Life » Wed Mar 6, 2024 4:06 pm

pancakes3 wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
Fairview4Life wrote:
The democrats aren't in lockstep as a political party on all of those issues.


:yoda voice: "And that... is why you fail"


Bernie's been trying to Eat the Rich for 35 years. Dems don't wanna hear it because the tent's too big.

But to the original point, is it a candidate problem (like you said, Biden has no full throated platforms) or is it a voter problem (like FV4L and you point out, there are too many platforms to commit to)


There are a whole bunch of problems, including the media consistently operating on the assumption that Republicans are right on every issue, or actively misinforming their audiences. But the biggest is just how the electoral college is setup. Some people's votes for president are worth more than others.
9. Similarly, IF THOU HAST SPENT the entire offseason predicting that thy team will stink, thou shalt not gloat, nor even be happy, shouldst thou turn out to be correct. Realistic analysis is fine, but be a fan first, a smug smarty-pants second.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1444 » by Zonkerbl » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:07 pm

Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1445 » by dorianwrite » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:33 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.



See, here's a problem that needs to be overcome if systems and situations are going to be fixed: to paraphrase a recent popular movie title, everyone wants everything all at once. That's not generally how change works (and yes, I know I'm largely preaching to the choir). Within this system, change is incremental, often frustratingly so. Unless -- as some argue it should be -- the entire system is overthrown, then usually you've got to accept smaller victories until one day, things don't look or operate the same anymore. Every progressive victory that I can think of has been bit-by-bit. Sure, that's maddening, especially when the changes being demanded are the result of systemic oppression, but remind me of some problem that got solved both satisfactorily and all-at-once. (Note, I'm sure there are such situations, but they aren't common.)
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1446 » by popper » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:59 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.


Just a note of clarification --- he didn't really cancel the debt, he just reassigned the obligation to future taxpayers. I also wonder how student loans will be handled in the future given the precedent. I assume the current student loan system will have to be scrapped or modified since the premise behind it (a student borrows money, a student pays it back) is no longer operable.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1447 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Mar 7, 2024 12:01 am

popper wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.


Just a note of clarification --- he didn't really cancel the debt, he just reassigned the obligation to future taxpayers. I also wonder how student loans will be handled in the future given the precedent. I assume the current student loan system will have to be scrapped or modified since the premise behind it (a student borrows money, a student pays it back) is no longer operable.


Lol if getting bailed out by the government makes something "no longer operable" I guess us automobile manufacturing is no longer operable either
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1448 » by dckingsfan » Thu Mar 7, 2024 12:23 am

Zonkerbl wrote:
popper wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.

Just a note of clarification --- he didn't really cancel the debt, he just reassigned the obligation to future taxpayers. I also wonder how student loans will be handled in the future given the precedent. I assume the current student loan system will have to be scrapped or modified since the premise behind it (a student borrows money, a student pays it back) is no longer operable.

Lol if getting bailed out by the government makes something "no longer operable" I guess us automobile manufacturing is no longer operable either

Or producing the fossil fuels they run on as well. One of the most subsidized industries out there...

But if we get to the heart of the problem, many Americans are no longer willing to invest in America. That goes with infrastructure, education, technology, etc., etc.. It follows the fallacy from Libertarians lunacy that the country does much better without government intervention.

Kind of like a corporation that is just milking the profits not caring what happens in the future.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1449 » by popper » Thu Mar 7, 2024 12:44 am

Zonkerbl wrote:
popper wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Hm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/03/06/biden-student-loan-forgiveness/

Biden has canceled $138 billion of student loan debt. Total student loan debt is $1.7 trillion.

138 billion / 1.7 trillion is 8%.

Well, it's not nothing, a little more than I expected.


Just a note of clarification --- he didn't really cancel the debt, he just reassigned the obligation to future taxpayers. I also wonder how student loans will be handled in the future given the precedent. I assume the current student loan system will have to be scrapped or modified since the premise behind it (a student borrows money, a student pays it back) is no longer operable.


Lol if getting bailed out by the government makes something "no longer operable" I guess us automobile manufacturing is no longer operable either


In a rational political system, it would. Unfortunately this is not a rational system. Why? Because politicians can push the financial pain of bad policy choices into a future which lay beyond their political longevity. That doesn't change the effects of bad policy decisions, it just transfers the cost to future taxpayers (who no longer have the ability to hold the guilty politicians responsible.)

Bailing out our automobile manufacturers was bad policy just as forgiving student loans is bad policy (I'm not opposed to modifying bankruptcy laws though). Frankly I'm surprised that an educated and credentialed economist would advocate for such a policy.

Edit - you're right though, I should have said rationally operable.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1450 » by dckingsfan » Thu Mar 7, 2024 1:22 am

Turns out that bailing out our automotive industry was a good thing economically over the longer term. The automakers got back on their feet, which helped the recovery of the U.S. economy. Reminder, the auto industry’s had a huge contribution to the recovery -- an unintended and unexpected consequence of the bailout.

Same with the bailout of the banks which kept us out of a depression era downturn.

Forgiving student loans would pay off in a big way in time. It would allow for more investment in the future (instead of what is happening now with those saddled with debt).

So, if you judge rational by the end result... well then, you might draw a different conclusion.

Just saying...
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1451 » by popper » Thu Mar 7, 2024 1:35 am

dckingsfan wrote:Turns out that bailing out our automotive industry was a good thing economically over the longer term. The automakers got back on their feet, which helped the recovery of the U.S. economy. Reminder, the auto industry’s had a huge contribution to the recovery -- an unintended and unexpected consequence of the bailout.

Same with the bailout of the banks which kept us out of a depression era downturn.

Forgiving student loans would pay off in a big way in time. It would allow for more investment in the future (instead of what is happening now with those saddled with debt).

So, if you judge rational by the end result... well then, you might draw a different conclusion.

Just saying...


I disagree but understand a case can be made for that position.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1452 » by dckingsfan » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:14 am

popper wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Turns out that bailing out our automotive industry was a good thing economically over the longer term. The automakers got back on their feet, which helped the recovery of the U.S. economy. Reminder, the auto industry’s had a huge contribution to the recovery -- an unintended and unexpected consequence of the bailout.

Same with the bailout of the banks which kept us out of a depression era downturn.

Forgiving student loans would pay off in a big way in time. It would allow for more investment in the future (instead of what is happening now with those saddled with debt).

So, if you judge rational by the end result... well then, you might draw a different conclusion.

Just saying...

I disagree but understand a case can be made for that position.

I'll assume that you disagree but can't articulate your argument since it is a belief.

Now if you want to talk about spending that has no return. Look at the Bush (2.6T) and Trump tax cuts (2.3T) and the forever wars (4.5T).

The return for a college education to the US is near to dollar for dollar even in the short-term. Just saying, if we had taken that $9.4T and invested it in education and adjusted the tax code accordingly, we wouldn't have debt.

Fun fact, when the US invests in infrastructure or subsidizes capital expenditures in the private sector there is also a huge return. Research our electrical grid, railroads, etc..

But if you believe that US investment is a waste, then you won't be able to see it. I guess sometimes things have to be believed to be seen.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1453 » by popper » Thu Mar 7, 2024 3:05 am

dckingsfan wrote:
popper wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Turns out that bailing out our automotive industry was a good thing economically over the longer term. The automakers got back on their feet, which helped the recovery of the U.S. economy. Reminder, the auto industry’s had a huge contribution to the recovery -- an unintended and unexpected consequence of the bailout.

Same with the bailout of the banks which kept us out of a depression era downturn.

Forgiving student loans would pay off in a big way in time. It would allow for more investment in the future (instead of what is happening now with those saddled with debt).

So, if you judge rational by the end result... well then, you might draw a different conclusion.

Just saying...

I disagree but understand a case can be made for that position.

I'll assume that you disagree but can't articulate your argument since it is a belief.

Now if you want to talk about spending that has no return. Look at the Bush (2.6T) and Trump tax cuts (2.3T) and the forever wars (4.5T).

The return for a college education to the US is near to dollar for dollar even in the short-term. Just saying, if we had taken that $9.4T and invested it in education and adjusted the tax code accordingly, we wouldn't have debt.

Fun fact, when the US invests in infrastructure or subsidizes capital expenditures in the private sector there is also a huge return. Research our electrical grid, railroads, etc..

But if you believe that US investment is a waste, then you won't be able to see it. I guess sometimes things have to be believed to be seen.


You assumed wrong and I'll explain tomorrow. Finishing up season 4 of "Jack Ryan" so be patient. Priorities matter.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1454 » by popper » Thu Mar 7, 2024 1:25 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
popper wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Turns out that bailing out our automotive industry was a good thing economically over the longer term. The automakers got back on their feet, which helped the recovery of the U.S. economy. Reminder, the auto industry’s had a huge contribution to the recovery -- an unintended and unexpected consequence of the bailout.

Same with the bailout of the banks which kept us out of a depression era downturn.

Forgiving student loans would pay off in a big way in time. It would allow for more investment in the future (instead of what is happening now with those saddled with debt).

So, if you judge rational by the end result... well then, you might draw a different conclusion.

Just saying...

I disagree but understand a case can be made for that position.

I'll assume that you disagree but can't articulate your argument since it is a belief.

Now if you want to talk about spending that has no return. Look at the Bush (2.6T) and Trump tax cuts (2.3T) and the forever wars (4.5T).

The return for a college education to the US is near to dollar for dollar even in the short-term. Just saying, if we had taken that $9.4T and invested it in education and adjusted the tax code accordingly, we wouldn't have debt.

Fun fact, when the US invests in infrastructure or subsidizes capital expenditures in the private sector there is also a huge return. Research our electrical grid, railroads, etc..

But if you believe that US investment is a waste, then you won't be able to see it. I guess sometimes things have to be believed to be seen.


A lot to unpack here but on the auto bailout, there are literally hundreds of articles on the subject, pro and con. I tend to agree with this snippet.

"The objection to the auto bailout was not that the federal government wouldn’t be able to marshal adequate resources to help GM. The most serious concerns were about the consequences of that intervention — the undermining of the rule of law, the property confiscations, the politically driven decisions and the distortion of market signals.

Any verdict on the auto bailouts must take into account, among other things, the illegal diversion of TARP funds, the forced transfer of assets from shareholders and debt‐​holders to pensioners and their union; the higher‐​risk premiums consequently built into U.S. corporate debt; the costs of denying Ford and the other more worthy automakers the spoils of competition; the costs of insulating irresponsible actors, such as the autoworkers’ union, from the outcomes of an apolitical bankruptcy proceeding; the diminution of U.S. moral authority to counsel foreign governments against market interventions; and the lingering uncertainty about policy that pervades the business environment to this day.

GM’s recent profits speak only to the fact that politicians committed more than $50 billion to the task of rescuing those companies and the United Auto Workers. With debts expunged, cash infused, inefficiencies severed, ownership reconstituted, sales rebates underwritten and political obstacles steamrolled — all in the midst of a recovery in U.S. auto demand — only the most incompetent operations could fail to make profits.

But taxpayers are still short at least $10 billion to $20 billion (depending on the price that the government’s 500 million shares of GM will fetch), and there is still significant overcapacity in the auto industry.

The administration should divest as soon as possible, without regard to the stock price. Keeping the government’s tentacles around a large firm in an important industry will keep the door open wider to industrial policy and will deter market‐​driven decision‐​making throughout the industry, possibly keeping the brakes on the recovery. Yes, there will be a significant loss to taxpayers. But the right lesson to learn from this chapter in history is that government interventions carry real economic costs — only some of which are readily measurable."

https://www.cato.org/testimony/lasting-implications-general-motors-bailout

On the flip side, the article below somewhat supports your conclusion but with warnings and caveats.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/knowledge-at-wharton-podcast/auto-bailout-ten-years-later-right-call/

I don't believe that all U.S. investments are a waste (or counterproductive), just some of them.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1455 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:23 pm

popper wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:
popper wrote:
Just a note of clarification --- he didn't really cancel the debt, he just reassigned the obligation to future taxpayers. I also wonder how student loans will be handled in the future given the precedent. I assume the current student loan system will have to be scrapped or modified since the premise behind it (a student borrows money, a student pays it back) is no longer operable.


Lol if getting bailed out by the government makes something "no longer operable" I guess us automobile manufacturing is no longer operable either


In a rational political system, it would. Unfortunately this is not a rational system. Why? Because politicians can push the financial pain of bad policy choices into a future which lay beyond their political longevity. That doesn't change the effects of bad policy decisions, it just transfers the cost to future taxpayers (who no longer have the ability to hold the guilty politicians responsible.)

Bailing out our automobile manufacturers was bad policy just as forgiving student loans is bad policy (I'm not opposed to modifying bankruptcy laws though). Frankly I'm surprised that an educated and credentialed economist would advocate for such a policy.

Edit - you're right though, I should have said rationally operable.


Sigh. This is what's wrong with neoconservatism, everybody thinks economists are libertarians and we are most definitely not. The whole point of economics is to start off with the perfectly competitive market, think about why it is a good thing, and then investigate the real world and find out where actual markets fail. And then design solutions - which are mostly government interventions! - that can help fix those failures. An "educated and credentialed" economist will NEVER say that all government intervention is bad. An educated and credentialed economist will have published several papers investigating market failures and proposing ways to address them. The god of libertarianism himself Milton Friedman proposed a precursor of the UBI in the sixties - a government intervention!

I myself spent six weeks in Moscow in the mid 1990s investigating bankruptcy law in post-Soviet Russia and am extraordinarily familiar with the market failures that bankruptcy policy is intended to address. It is not in society's interest to seize all of an economic actor's productive assets, nor is it in the interests of his or her creditors - you want your debtor to be able to earn money to pay off at least some of the loans. There is a tradeoff between penalizing people for not paying their debts and penalizing them so severely that you end up losing money anyway. For corporations the issues are even more complex, because you have multiple creditors and someone has to decide who gets paid first when the bankrupt corporation's assets are liquidated. So there's both a "penalizing debtors into annihilation" market failure and also a coordination failure.

Student loans, by the way, have been EXEMPT from bankruptcy relief since the mid aughts, which as an economist I find enormously insane. The WHOLE POINT of bankruptcy is to allow people to be able to start over without stripping them of their ability to earn money. Exempting someone's largest loans from bankruptcy is highly irrational, petty, vindictive, and not in society's best interest.

Right now, the way they are treated in bankruptcy law, student loans are a scam designed to transfer money from poor people to rich people and are extremely broken as a policy and a financial instrument. Of course the ideal approach would be to treat student loans the same as all other debt gets treated in bankruptcy law (and to allow interest rates to float, they have been absurdly high since interest rates went to zero after the Great Recession). But forgiving student loans is a valid second best solution.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1456 » by dckingsfan » Thu Mar 7, 2024 4:33 pm

popper wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
popper wrote:I disagree but understand a case can be made for that position.

I'll assume that you disagree but can't articulate your argument since it is a belief.

Now if you want to talk about spending that has no return. Look at the Bush (2.6T) and Trump tax cuts (2.3T) and the forever wars (4.5T).

The return for a college education to the US is near to dollar for dollar even in the short-term. Just saying, if we had taken that $9.4T and invested it in education and adjusted the tax code accordingly, we wouldn't have debt.

Fun fact, when the US invests in infrastructure or subsidizes capital expenditures in the private sector there is also a huge return. Research our electrical grid, railroads, etc..

But if you believe that US investment is a waste, then you won't be able to see it. I guess sometimes things have to be believed to be seen.


A lot to unpack here but on the auto bailout, there are literally hundreds of articles on the subject, pro and con. I tend to agree with this snippet.

"The objection to the auto bailout was not that the federal government wouldn’t be able to marshal adequate resources to help GM. The most serious concerns were about the consequences of that intervention — the undermining of the rule of law, the property confiscations, the politically driven decisions and the distortion of market signals.

Any verdict on the auto bailouts must take into account, among other things, the illegal diversion of TARP funds, the forced transfer of assets from shareholders and debt‐​holders to pensioners and their union; the higher‐​risk premiums consequently built into U.S. corporate debt; the costs of denying Ford and the other more worthy automakers the spoils of competition; the costs of insulating irresponsible actors, such as the autoworkers’ union, from the outcomes of an apolitical bankruptcy proceeding; the diminution of U.S. moral authority to counsel foreign governments against market interventions; and the lingering uncertainty about policy that pervades the business environment to this day.

GM’s recent profits speak only to the fact that politicians committed more than $50 billion to the task of rescuing those companies and the United Auto Workers. With debts expunged, cash infused, inefficiencies severed, ownership reconstituted, sales rebates underwritten and political obstacles steamrolled — all in the midst of a recovery in U.S. auto demand — only the most incompetent operations could fail to make profits.

But taxpayers are still short at least $10 billion to $20 billion (depending on the price that the government’s 500 million shares of GM will fetch), and there is still significant overcapacity in the auto industry.

The administration should divest as soon as possible, without regard to the stock price. Keeping the government’s tentacles around a large firm in an important industry will keep the door open wider to industrial policy and will deter market‐​driven decision‐​making throughout the industry, possibly keeping the brakes on the recovery. Yes, there will be a significant loss to taxpayers. But the right lesson to learn from this chapter in history is that government interventions carry real economic costs — only some of which are readily measurable."

https://www.cato.org/testimony/lasting-implications-general-motors-bailout

On the flip side, the article below somewhat supports your conclusion but with warnings and caveats.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/knowledge-at-wharton-podcast/auto-bailout-ten-years-later-right-call/

I don't believe that all U.S. investments are a waste (or counterproductive), just some of them.

Note: the government didn't fall short if you take into account tax receipts or the economy not recovering nearly as fast. It was a full out win. And the same goes for the banks. The government received more money back ($266.7 billion, according to the Treasury) than it handed out to banks under the bailout law ($245.2 billion).

From your article:

Paul Eisenstein, publisher of online trade publication The Detroit Bureau, notes that some “people were screaming about bailouts for Detroit and yet they seemed to accept as just inevitable that we should be bailing out the banks and Wall Street.”


So, when you take the entire intervention as a whole. It was hardly a net negative. ESPECIALLY against the notion of a deeper recession or depression like event. And guess what - we still have competitive auto industry today. Will there be headwinds tomorrow - sure. But that goes to every industry.

And a note: when we almost always focus on bad government investments, the nation is then skewed to believing that government should therefore be reduced to zero (or as close as possible). If instead, media was focusing on those 1000 scholarships produced 500 doctors and 500 nurses which saved x lives... well then, it would be a different story.

BTW, the Cato institute article is from 2011 where it was still the heat of the moment. "Lasting Implications" need to be measured in decades not two years later. Just saying.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1457 » by pancakes3 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 7:40 pm

good stuff. I guess I just have to add:

1) I agree with popper that (a) the current student loan system needs change; and (b) the current system is not operable.

2) I'm not thrilled at the prospect of using bankruptcy as a fix for student loans because it doesn't get to the heart of the issue, with the issue being that (a) education costs are out of control; and (b) like Zonk said, it's just a way to take money from the poor to give it to the rich; the rich are collecting unearned benefits with the current system - employers are benefiting by having an educated labor pool, schools are benefiting by being cartels that exact monopolistic profits from educational licensing, and students/laborers are left to bootstrap themselves by paying for their credentials with no compensation since the salaries they get after graduating is only compensating them for their labor, not their education.

3) If we're playing by the rules of textbook capitalism, you could have employers directly pay for an employee's college the same way they would pay for someone's professional licensing or MBA. One step removed from that, you could have employers indirectly pay the government to subsidize education, the same way we're already subsidizing K12.

4) And on the school-side of things, you could have price ceilings, tax reform to prevent these "non-profits" from hoarding profits in endowments, or just straight up free college (for the public ones anyway), none of which require the current student loan framework.

5) Higher Ed is a teetering jenga tower of an issue though, because the academic structure currently is such a massive river of money that any disruption to it would massively affect so many different areas like (a) higher education is also the hub of all meaningful research in America; (b) education is one of the foundational pillars of immigration; (c) higher ed is of extreme cultural significance by way of "the college experience" and how it directly affects how adolescents are socialized into adulthood; (d) housing/real estate; (e) any number of other downstream industries suckling at the teat of higher education like textbooks, school supplies, dorm supplies, bars...
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1458 » by dobrojim » Thu Mar 7, 2024 7:54 pm

popper wrote:
You assumed wrong and I'll explain tomorrow. Finishing up season 4 of "Jack Ryan" so be patient. Priorities matter.


big snip and diversion from the usual subjects discussed here but going to jump in on this...

I have this habit of re-reading books I read years ago, in some cases, re-read multiple times.
A random friend recently criticized me for this saying he NEVER reads a book twice. But I digress...

Even though he was adored by the cons of the day, I enjoyed quite a few of the Clancy books
featuring Jack Ryan or his buddy John Clark. But he got more and more hypercritical of anything
hinting of left thought and the book about the radical environmental terrorists and the other book
about the war between China and Russia were the clinchers in ending my further interest in Clancy
books. But I have reread Red October and Cardinal of the Kremlin recently.

We can't know the answer but I do wonder if Clancy would be a Trumper if he were alive today.
It's pretty clear he became hugely critical of left wing thought as he got older.

I've watched (I think) all the seasons on Amazon's Jack Ryan series. But I honestly don't think
they are that good. Neither are the continuing James Bond movies. So formulaic, so violent.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1459 » by popper » Thu Mar 7, 2024 8:06 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
popper wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:I'll assume that you disagree but can't articulate your argument since it is a belief.

Now if you want to talk about spending that has no return. Look at the Bush (2.6T) and Trump tax cuts (2.3T) and the forever wars (4.5T).

The return for a college education to the US is near to dollar for dollar even in the short-term. Just saying, if we had taken that $9.4T and invested it in education and adjusted the tax code accordingly, we wouldn't have debt.

Fun fact, when the US invests in infrastructure or subsidizes capital expenditures in the private sector there is also a huge return. Research our electrical grid, railroads, etc..

But if you believe that US investment is a waste, then you won't be able to see it. I guess sometimes things have to be believed to be seen.


A lot to unpack here but on the auto bailout, there are literally hundreds of articles on the subject, pro and con. I tend to agree with this snippet.

"The objection to the auto bailout was not that the federal government wouldn’t be able to marshal adequate resources to help GM. The most serious concerns were about the consequences of that intervention — the undermining of the rule of law, the property confiscations, the politically driven decisions and the distortion of market signals.

Any verdict on the auto bailouts must take into account, among other things, the illegal diversion of TARP funds, the forced transfer of assets from shareholders and debt‐​holders to pensioners and their union; the higher‐​risk premiums consequently built into U.S. corporate debt; the costs of denying Ford and the other more worthy automakers the spoils of competition; the costs of insulating irresponsible actors, such as the autoworkers’ union, from the outcomes of an apolitical bankruptcy proceeding; the diminution of U.S. moral authority to counsel foreign governments against market interventions; and the lingering uncertainty about policy that pervades the business environment to this day.

GM’s recent profits speak only to the fact that politicians committed more than $50 billion to the task of rescuing those companies and the United Auto Workers. With debts expunged, cash infused, inefficiencies severed, ownership reconstituted, sales rebates underwritten and political obstacles steamrolled — all in the midst of a recovery in U.S. auto demand — only the most incompetent operations could fail to make profits.

But taxpayers are still short at least $10 billion to $20 billion (depending on the price that the government’s 500 million shares of GM will fetch), and there is still significant overcapacity in the auto industry.

The administration should divest as soon as possible, without regard to the stock price. Keeping the government’s tentacles around a large firm in an important industry will keep the door open wider to industrial policy and will deter market‐​driven decision‐​making throughout the industry, possibly keeping the brakes on the recovery. Yes, there will be a significant loss to taxpayers. But the right lesson to learn from this chapter in history is that government interventions carry real economic costs — only some of which are readily measurable."

https://www.cato.org/testimony/lasting-implications-general-motors-bailout

On the flip side, the article below somewhat supports your conclusion but with warnings and caveats.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/podcast/knowledge-at-wharton-podcast/auto-bailout-ten-years-later-right-call/

I don't believe that all U.S. investments are a waste (or counterproductive), just some of them.

Note: the government didn't fall short if you take into account tax receipts or the economy not recovering nearly as fast. It was a full out win. And the same goes for the banks. The government received more money back ($266.7 billion, according to the Treasury) than it handed out to banks under the bailout law ($245.2 billion).

From your article:

Paul Eisenstein, publisher of online trade publication The Detroit Bureau, notes that some “people were screaming about bailouts for Detroit and yet they seemed to accept as just inevitable that we should be bailing out the banks and Wall Street.”


So, when you take the entire intervention as a whole. It was hardly a net negative. ESPECIALLY against the notion of a deeper recession or depression like event. And guess what - we still have competitive auto industry today. Will there be headwinds tomorrow - sure. But that goes to every industry.

And a note: when we almost always focus on bad government investments, the nation is then skewed to believing that government should therefore be reduced to zero (or as close as possible). If instead, media was focusing on those 1000 scholarships produced 500 doctors and 500 nurses which saved x lives... well then, it would be a different story.

BTW, the Cato institute article is from 2011 where it was still the heat of the moment. "Lasting Implications" need to be measured in decades not two years later. Just saying.


I understand your position dck. Like I mentioned in an earlier post, a case can be made along the lines you have described. If I was making the decision, I would have given the bank shareholders a massive haircut before bailout dollars flowed (my memory is that that did not happen).

So we're left with what exactly? What industries and individuals qualify for bailouts. So far it's the banking, auto manufacturing and a subsection of student borrowers' (probably a few others I'm forgetting). I'm all for a government that occasionally makes investments (the interstate highway system for example) but I'd prefer the criteria for bailouts to be openly debated and mapped out in advance. That won't happen of course because ultimately it's a political decision, which brings me back to my earlier point (politicians make decisions effecting future generations of taxpayers that extend far beyond their political longevity (IOW - they are unaccountable in many instances). I understand for some very long term projects it's unavoidable.

However I'll be the first to admit that the government will have to assist if we're going to bring back our domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capability. I think they're already assisting with domestic chip manufacturing and I believe modular small scale nuclear power demonstration projects as well. I support all three.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XXXII 

Post#1460 » by pancakes3 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 8:45 pm

popper wrote:What industries and individuals qualify for bailouts. So far it's the banking, auto manufacturing and a subsection of student borrowers' (probably a few others I'm forgetting).



defense contractors
airline industry (same stakeholders as defense contractors, tbh)
savings and loans in the 80's
AIG got a piece of the bank bailout in 2008

However I'll be the first to admit that the government will have to assist if we're going to bring back our domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing capability. I think they're already assisting with domestic chip manufacturing and I believe modular small scale nuclear power demonstration projects as well. I support all three.


if we're defining subsidies as a form of bailout?

energy (fossil fuel primarily, with a fraction going to green energy), agriculture (crop insurance), healthcare, housing (section 8), education (pell grants), food (food stamps)...

so really it just breaks down into (a) things that the every day american needs; and (b) things the government needs.

Every day americans need to meet immediate food, water, and shelter, and then they need things to get jobs (gas for their car, baseline education).

The government needs americans to be working, national defense, and to prop up privatized services that would otherwise be nationalized (banking, airlines, railroads).

That's the linedrawing. That's the weighing as to who gets bailed out and who doesn't.

Higher ed fits into that framework.
Childcare fits into the "things everyday americans need to get jobs" category but isn't being met.
Housing is becoming increasingly expensive, that there should be some sort of subsidy there as well; FHA loan is proving to be insufficient to fill that need.

But to a point that Zonk made a few pages ago, the administrative costs of running these programs are high, and it's also additionally expensive to means test the individual recipients to see who's "worthy" or not, especially since with wealth disparity being as wide as it is, most americans qualify one way or another, and it's more cost effective to give everyone free lunch than it is to pay someone to sort the students into who needs it and doesn't need it.

So to cut through these inefficiencies, at least on the individual level, it's arguably more cost effective to just take the money that we would put towards social programs, and instead cut everyone a check (UBI) and the recipient can more efficiently allocate the money to go towards what they need to get paid, whether it's food, water, shelter, diapers gas money, school supplies, drugs, alcohol, etc.

But to bring it back to bipartisan talk, there's no discussion on this. And republicans' are only crying out "we can't afford it" while voting for an ever-increasing military budget. They cry over a bailout of GM, but single-handledly keep the entire defense industry afloat (there are no other customers for F35's but for the US government).

Are UAV's and missiles ESSENTIAL for the national defense, or merely BENEFICIAL? What's the point of national defense, if (1) we shouldn't be fighting foreign wars; (2) the people we're defending are literally starving; (3) we're neglecting more cost-effective areas of national defense like cybersecurity and disinformation; and (4) our military spending is fueling by definition an arms race by forcing other nations (China) to hypermilitarize to keep up with us which in turn forces us to spend more on defense, which forces other nations (China) to hypermilitarize...
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