Deni Avdija - Part II

[doclinkin]

Grizz fan here back, I wanted him before the 43 points lol. What realistic offer would you guys consider for Deni.
Ziaire Williams, Jake Laravia and 24 pick currently #6 would be my offer.

We already resigned him to a pretty cheap deal before the season. I can't see any scenario where they would trade him now.

Yeah I can see that but he is your teams best asset and could net a real return.

He's our best core building block and after the recent string of high numbers is probably untouchable.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

With Deni's 43 pts performance he surpassing some notable players' career highs:

Lameo Ball - 38pts, Scottie Barens - 32 pts , Franz Wagner - 38 pts, OG Anunoby - 36 pts, Bam Adebayo - 42 pts, Collin Sexton - 42 pts, Ben Simmons - 42 pts, Domantas Sabonis - 42 pts

He ties the career highs of Zion Williamson, Chris Paul and Paulo Banchero.

Banchero's 43 pts performance stat sheet:
13-25 FG, 11-14 FTs, 4 Reb, 5 Ast in 45 Minutes.

Deni's 43 pts:
13-24 FG. 11-13 FT, 15 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 BLK in 39 minutes.

Yep, it was a night to remember.

It's all astonishing how bad the team was for those 9 minutes he was off the court. Zion got a bit hot towards the end of the third with Deni in, but he absolutely started to dominate and change the momentum of the game once he sat the first 3 or so of the third. Not to say Deni didn't need the breather, but yeah team was a circus without him.

[nate33]

Grizz fan here back, I wanted him before the 43 points lol. What realistic offer would you guys consider for Deni.
Ziaire Williams, Jake Laravia and 24 pick currently #6 would be my offer.

It's just not even realistic to ask. No team trades a 23 year old who is just breaking out. We don't even know his upside yet. Then factor his contract and it's just not a conversation we're going to have - not until he levels off and we get a sense of where his ceiling might be.

[nate33]

With Deni's 43 pts performance he surpassing some notable players' career highs:

Lameo Ball - 38pts, Scottie Barens - 32 pts , Franz Wagner - 38 pts, OG Anunoby - 36 pts, Bam Adebayo - 42 pts, Collin Sexton - 42 pts, Ben Simmons - 42 pts, Domantas Sabonis - 42 pts

He ties the career highs of Zion Williamson, Chris Paul and Paulo Banchero.

Banchero's 43 pts performance stat sheet:
13-25 FG, 11-14 FTs, 4 Reb, 5 Ast in 45 Minutes.

Deni's 43 pts:
13-24 FG. 11-13 FT, 15 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 BLK in 39 minutes.

Yep, it was a night to remember.

It's all astonishing how bad the team was for those 9 minutes he was off the court. Zion got a bit hot towards the end of the third with Deni in, but he absolutely started to dominate and change the momentum of the game once he sat the first 3 or so of the third. Not to say Deni didn't need the breather, but yeah team was a circus without him.

Yeah, it was real bad without him. New Orleans has a lot of big forwards who can score (Zion, Ingram, Murphy) and Deni and Coulibaly were the only guys on our roster who could slow them down. Whenever those guys had the opportunity to go to work on a smaller guard or a slower center, it was a joke.

Deni was real solid defensively until the 4th quarter when he clearly was tongue-dragging tired.

[QMemphis]

Grizz fan here back, I wanted him before the 43 points lol. What realistic offer would you guys consider for Deni.
Ziaire Williams, Jake Laravia and 24 pick currently #6 would be my offer.

It's just not even realistic to ask. No team trades a 23 year old who is just breaking out. We don't even know his upside yet. Then factor his contract and it's just not a conversation we're going to have - not until he levels off and we get a sense of where his ceiling might be.

Definitely realistic to ask lol, but given Ziaire’s false hope game just made me rescind my offer.

[nate33]

Over his first 30 games, Deni averaged 11 points, 5.5 boards and 3.8 assists in 26.7 minutes per game on a TS% of .578. That was basically in line with his prior two seasons (8.7 points, 5.9 boards, 2.4 assists in 25.3 minutes, TS% .535) except with a modest improvement in aggressiveness and finishing around the rim.

Over the last 24 games, Deni is averaging 17.0 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists in 30.0 minutes per game on a TS% of .645 and a USG of 22.3%. That's a long enough sample size that it is almost surely real. Those averages rank him 60th in scoring, 30th in rebounding, and 18th in TS% (9th if you ignore rim-running bigs with a USG% below 18) - all while being a plus defender who is switchable 1-4.

Over the last 6 games, it's 24.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 33.3 minutes a game on a TS% of .700 and a USG of 25%. While that shooting efficiency is surely not sustainable, the overall production is evidence that he may be even better than his averages over the last 24 games.

[Frichuela]

Excited for Deni’s future.

As discussed many times, confidence is the key and running plays for him. Deni needs the ball in his hands. I hope Kuz reins in his usage and let’s Deni run the show. We are much better off with Kuz increasing his catch and shoot opportunities, particularly from the corner 3.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I posted part of this on the GB thread talking about Deni, and found it absolutely stunning and thought I'd share with the gang...

On the season, the Wizards roster's On-Off numbers among players who have played have played 60% of the teams games (they've played 54) since being on the roster or overall who and have averaged at least 10+ MPG:

-Delon Wright (13.8 MPG in 33 games): +5.6
-Deni Avdija (28.2 MPG in 54 games): +3.6
-Daniel Gafford (26.5 MPG in 45 games with Washington): +2.8
-Marvin Bagley (24.1 MPG in 11 games with Washington): +2.6
-Landry Shamet (15.1 MPG in 37 games): +2.0
-Richaun Holmes (12.0 MPG in 2 games with Washington): -0.5
-Bilal Coulibaly (26.9 MPG in 53 games): -5.4
-Jordan Poole (29.2 MPG in 52 games): -5.4
-Kyle Kuzma (31.7 MPG in 52 games): -5.6
-Corey Kispert (22.5 MPG in 53 games): -5.6
-Tyus Jones (29.0 MPG in 54 games): -7.0

The other two players that that have averaged 10+ minutes but have been traded away that don't meet that games played threshold are:

-Danilo Gallinari (14.8 MPG in 26 games with Washington): -2.5
-Mike Muscala (14.1 MPG in 24 games with Washington): -10.8

So on a roster that has been relatively injury free for the season, Avdija's on-off numbers speak volumes given that he's one of two players on the roster to have played every game this season (Jones being the other). Among players who have played 20+ MPG he's one of the three to have a positive on-off, which he leads among the three. One of those other players Gafford has been traded and the other Bagley has played 20% of the teams games this season after being traded for.

The only other guys to have a positive on-offs are two journey man guards who have both missed approximately 40% of the season and both average less than 15 MPG.

The top five players other than him still on the roster in terms of MPG (minus Bagley who has only played 11 games with the team) are:

-Bilal Coulibaly (26.9 MPG in 53 games): -5.4
-Jordan Poole (29.2 MPG in 52 games): -5.4
-Kyle Kuzma (31.7 MPG in 52 games): -5.6
-Corey Kispert (22.5 MPG in 53 games): -5.6
-Tyus Jones (29.0 MPG in 54 games): -7.0

Of those five guys, they've missed a grand total of 6 games. Deni is +9 to the next nearest guy in Bilal Coulibaly.

If this isn't proof of his impact on the court is, especially defense, I don't know what is...

[nate33]

I posted part of this on the GB thread talking about Deni, and found it absolutely stunning and thought I'd share with the gang...

On the season, the Wizards roster's On-Off numbers among players who have played have played 60% of the teams games (they've played 54) since being on the roster or overall who and have averaged at least 10+ MPG:

-Delon Wright (13.8 MPG in 33 games): +5.6
-Deni Avdija (28.2 MPG in 54 games): +3.6
-Daniel Gafford (26.5 MPG in 45 games with Washington): +2.8
-Marvin Bagley (24.1 MPG in 11 games with Washington): +2.6
-Landry Shamet (15.1 MPG in 37 games): +2.0
-Richaun Holmes (12.0 MPG in 2 games with Washington): -0.5
-Bilal Coulibaly (26.9 MPG in 53 games): -5.4
-Jordan Poole (29.2 MPG in 52 games): -5.4
-Kyle Kuzma (31.7 MPG in 52 games): -5.6
-Corey Kispert (22.5 MPG in 53 games): -5.6
-Tyus Jone (29.0 MPG in 54 games): -7.0

The other two players that that have averaged 10+ minutes but have been traded away that don't meet that games played played threshold are:

-Danilo Gallinari (14.8 MPG in 26 games with Washington: -2.5
-Mike Muscala (14.1 MPG in 24 games with Washington): -10.8

So on a roster that has been relatively injury free for the season, Avdiija on-off numbers speak volumes given that he's one of two players on the roster to have played every game this season (Jones being the other). Among players who have played 20+ MPG he's one of the three to have a positive on-off, which he leads among the three. One of those other players Gafford has been traded and the other Bagley has played 20% of the teams games this season after being traded for.

The only other guys to have a positive on-offs are two journey man guards who have both missed approximately 40% of the season and both average less than 15 MPG.

The top five players other than him still on the roster in terms of MPG (minus Bagley who has only played 11 games with the team) are:

-Bilal Coulibaly (26.9 MPG in 53 games): -5.4
-Jordan Poole (29.2 MPG in 52 games): -5.4
-Kyle Kuzma (31.7 MPG in 52 games): -5.6
-Corey Kispert (22.5 MPG in 53 games): -5.6
-Tyus Jone (29.0 MPG in 54 games): -7.0

Of those five guys, they've missed a grand total of 6 games. Deni is +9 to the next nearest guy in Bilal Coulibaly.

If this isn't proof of his impact on the court is, especially defense, I don't know what is...

Deni is really the only impact player on the roster.

Gafford and Bagley are okay, but look good in on/off differential mostly because they have no credible backup.

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

This fella a brick wall

[mhd]

Latest Lowe post has Zach Lowe and John Hollinger talking Bilal and Deni. It’s towards the end of the podcast, but both are pretty bullish (especially Deni) on both.

[mhd]

Discussion about Bilal (and then Deni) starts at around 1 hour, 27 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5231&v=5Dnfaa_c60w&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2F&feature=emb_logo

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Discussion about Bilal (and then Deni) starts at around 1 hour, 27 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5231&v=5Dnfaa_c60w&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2F&feature=emb_logo

Heavy praise from Lowe on Avdija. Basically echoing what a whole bunch of folks have been saying for awhile: Smart player, great defender, nice secondary ball handler who before this season, hadn't figured things out on offense but now just bullies his way to the rim and his let's the three fall with greater. Also said he now looks like a plus starter who you can plug in at multiple position.

The Bilal stuff was spot on. He's got the tools, just needs to be a sponge right now.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Now we're seeing while Poole is getting so much run. They had an idea that Deni might blow up, and Deni playing like this without a negative player like Poole eating so many minutes actively ruins the tank. Maybe Poole as a neutral player and us having a real backup center doesn't get us to the playin, but it takes us out of play for #1, especially if Deni can be a 2nd or 3rd scoring option. And sure this draft sucks ass, but I'd rather have a top 3 pick in an ass draft than another #9-12 pick in an ass draft.

[nate33]

Now we're seeing while Poole is getting so much run. They had an idea that Deni might blow up, and Deni playing like this without a negative player like Poole eating so many minutes actively ruins the tank. Maybe Poole as a neutral player and us having a real backup center doesn't get us to the playin, but it takes us out of play for #1, especially if Deni can be a 2nd or 3rd scoring option. And sure this draft sucks ass, but I'd rather have a top 3 pick in an ass draft than another #9-12 pick in an ass draft.

I was honestly hoping for a better record this year, even if it meant we'd pick in the 5-9 range instead of 1-5. A team can only take so much losing and I was hoping to save the real tanking for next season in a stronger draft. So if they are playing Poole with the intention to lose, I think it's a mistake.

(TBH, I don't think Poole's high minute load is some type of 4D chess. I think they are committed to getting him back on track, at least as an instant-offense 6th man type of player, since we're stuck with his contract.)

[payitforward]

Right...
No one "tanks" by going out on the court & playing to lose. That's just a silly idea.

[Dolevi]

All of u think it's just because Deni has improved his game, you are 100% dis-respecting the influence of the mental and psychological areas in sports. Deni did improved his game, but it's not just that. It's the touches he gets, it's the role he has now, it's the fact that it's not Beal's team anymore, not Russ and not anybody else. It's not only the USG% rating, it's the trust of his teammates and coaches that want him to be the ball handler. U can't just like that becoming a ball handler and play as a PG. It's a process. I'll remind you that a lot of coaches have come and gone since Deni has been drafted. A lot of players came and go. Chemistry changes all the time. And chemistry between players inside the roster also. Both these factors, have also a big part why a player can suddenly show different skill set. The atmosphere in your team has a big part on it. Deni couldn't do the things he does now before. Not *only* because he has less skills.

[tontoz]

All of u think it's just because Deni has improved his game, you are 100% dis-respecting the influence of the mental and psychological areas in sports. Deni did improved his game, but it's not just that. It's the touches he gets, it's the role he has now, it's the fact that it's not Beal's team anymore, not Russ and not anybody else. It's not only the USG% rating, it's the trust of his teammates and coaches that want him to be the ball handler. U can't just like that becoming a ball handler and play as a PG. It's a process. I'll remind you that a lot of coaches have come and gone since Deni has been drafted. A lot of players came and go. Chemistry changes all the time. And chemistry between players inside the roster also. Both these factors, have also a big part why a player can suddenly show different skill set. The atmosphere in your team has a big part on it. Deni couldn't do the things he does now before. Not *only* because he has less skills.

Beal missed roughly half the games over the last two seasons. What did Deni do when Beal was out?

Wes was the coach last year and until Jan 25 this year. Deni started attacking the basket more at the start of the season while Wes was the coach. Are you trying to say Wes prevented him from driving last year, then suddenly changed his mind this season?

No coach would ever tell Deni not to drive when a defender closes out aggressively. This year Deni finally started attacking, had some success, and as a result of that success got more touches. It isn't rocket science, and it certainly wasn't Beal or Wes that prevented Deni from driving to the basket.

[Pistol King]

I'm thinking out loud.

The last 24 games he's averaging:

17/8/3.8 on 11 shots per game.

To end up with a season 17PPG he would need to average 23.2PPG in the remaining 28 games.

Which means maintaining the same PPG he's averaging on his only last 7 games.

Nah, that's an impossible task currently (unless they decide making him the focal point).

But If he could somehow end up the season with a 15PPG on good TS% (he'll need to average 17PPG in the remaining games for that), that would be an impressive enough leap from last season.

How IMO he could get there?

1. Increasing FT attempts from 3.3 per game to 5.0 (drive more to the rim Deni).
2. get 33-35MPG
3. Increasing shot attempts per game from 10 to 12 while maintaining good %TS.
4. Be more aggressive on the boards. When Deni gets more boards it seems more things clicking for him offensively*

*Take a look at this interesting stat line:

Deni had 8 games this season with 10 or more rebounds. In these games, he's averaging 22.6 points.

In the games he grabs 9 rebounds or less: he's averaging 12.6 points.

Very small sample size, but worth testing this correlation further.

I'm very intrigued to see how his breakout game and a 1 full week off to think about it would affect him in the next games.

[tontoz]

Deni got robbed in his rookie year

Watch on YouTube