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The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#941 » by NatP4 » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:45 pm

Favorite mock draft/comparisons. Great content: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

Give me #5, #22, and #36.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#942 » by nate33 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:38 pm

NatP4 wrote:Favorite mock draft/comparisons. Great content: https://nbadraft.theringer.com/

Give me #5, #22, and #36.

Coming away from this draft with Topic and Murray-Boyles would be pretty sweet. It would be sweeter still if we got Topic by trading down from #1 or #2 to #5 and picked up something a little extra in the process. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if management took Castle over Topic because of our desperate need for backcourt defense.

I've expressed some concerns about Murray-Boyles but I do really like the upside. I also like that he clearly has a new level he can reach if he sheds a little weight and manages to turn that 80% FT% into a reliable 3-point shot. I wouldn't be surprised if he spends the next 3 months doing exactly that and blows everyone away at the Combine with his fitness and 3-ball in shooting drills.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#943 » by doclinkin » Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:52 pm

pancakes3 wrote:If Edey is an actual 60% fg%, 65% TS% scorer who can give you 20-25ppg in the low post, drawing fouls and grabbing boards, I think it'd be a good way for a team to zig when everyone else is zagging. You can still play with space with a guy working in the low post, it doesn't have to be 5 out.

It's a big if though.


Yes, that's my personal big if. Zach is the Big IF. But it is not only my supposition. Turns out others have been crunching data on what I theorized. From an article in the Athletic:

Let’s start with the basic thing with which analytics impacted the NBA most heavily: Three is more than two. Basketball teams were incredibly slow to realize this and fully take advantage of it. As a result, for several years, a simple life hack stood available to any team interested in seizing it: increase 3-point attempts, and move up the offensive charts. Take away 3s, and move up the defensive charts. Three-point frequency correlated heavily with success at both ends.

Not anymore. We’ve now escalated to the point that the relationship has completely broken down. Everyone is launching 3s and spacing the floor now; if they’re not bombing away, it isn’t because of Neanderthal math; it’s because they suck at it. There are no more Brook Lopezes or Marc Gasols to suddenly unleash as 3-point shooters.

Teams are taking more 3s than ever, making up about 39.2 percent of total field goal attempts, but diminishing returns have hit hard. With league averages of 36.7 percent on 3s and 54.5 percent on 2s, we’ve roughly hit the threshold where a typical 3 no longer has a higher expected return than a typical 2. (A paper at this conference argued that once we account for the much higher free-throw rates on 2s, teams have actually already sailed past the equilibrium point here.)

In a related story, the relationship between frequency of 3s and overall offensive efficiency has broken down. The Memphis Grizzlies are third in 3-point rate and last by a mile in efficiency; on the flip side, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are second and third in offense, respectively, with below-average 3-point rates. (They still shoot 3s at rates that would have led the league as recently as 2016, mind you; they just haven’t needed to push the envelope any further.)

The more interesting story, however, is on the defensive end. The thing about stopping opposing 3-point attempts is that it turns out you literally can’t. Or at least, nobody has figured out how without opening the floodgates in other areas. While a few teams have had success with low opponent 3-point rates — Denver, Orlando and Minnesota — most of the teams at the top of this category are getting cooked.

The most notable example is Indiana, as any Pacers fan can attest; the Pacers have sold out on preventing 3s and give up just 28.6 per 100 possessions, by far the fewest of any team. They also rank 25th in defense, allowing a hailstorm of rim attempts and free throws as part of the bargain despite employing an elite rim protector in Myles Turner. Against most NBA teams, this strategy seems likely to backfire; protecting the basket remains the most critical part of defense, and even the best shot blockers can only “limit” an opponent to 65 percent or so shooting on rim attempts. Better to take those attempts away and surrender the rest to the whims of the 3-point variance gods.


The rest of the article goes on to suggest the strategy is blown open by the Celtics, who hit threes efficiently from every position on the floor, and can do so while remaining large. Which neuters the strategy of walling off the paint and collecting every miss with strong rebounding. Letting the Celts bomb away. But the Celts are an anomaly. They have Zinger and Horford who both can play at the high post, and teams have not yet given up on following the Bigs out of the paint. The Celts will be the sole team that can live with the strategy. At least until Wemby and Chet have shooters surrounding them.

And still. I think the counter to a Unicorn is an Ogre. Size all around. Stay big up front. Notice the teams that are cited as defending the 3 well: Minnesota, Denver both are huge in the front court. Orlando is uniformly big all around and have a demon defender at the point of attack. Their draft philosophy is to go big at every position. If you can shut down the court and rob teams of space, if you can force teams to rely on the outside shot, you have a chance even when teams play tall ball and hide their big guy outside the arc.

Porzingis struggled when teams forced him to play in the paint full time. He suffered injuries from the banging, his eFG% went down. He likes the option of floating out in space, but that does not mean you have to chase him out there. Wemby started the year hucking from way out top, but his efficiency increased when he played full time at center. However he's still broomstick thin. He doesn't do as well when you can body him. If you can force him back to that outside role you have a better chance. Chet lost a year to a bad bump, looks to me like he defends and scores while avoiding contact, using his slimness to slip into spaces on the interior and shoot over peoples heads. Zach will be as tall as any of them and outweigh them all, while still being balanced and mobile.

All Edey needs to add to his game on offense is a jumper above the FT line. That's it. If so he can be even more of a threat when he steps up to erase a defender with a pick. He's a dangerous roll threat even if seemingly slow. He has great hands even in motion. Has a bank shot/hook game that extends to the midrange and can shoot over everyones heads. He passes well, over and through traffic. If he can groove a standstill jumper, then all the backdoor action opens up for players like Kispert or Deni. He can pass over most defenders. If he can basically take his rainbow FT shot from 2 long steps backwards, he doesn't even have to jump. Nobody is blocking his shot even if it is a standstill set shot, high overhead. Like Marc Gasol or Brook cited above.

On defense, yes you would still need long mobile defenders who can switch everything and are smart enough to funnel penetration to your monster on the interior. Like say a trio of 6'9" guys who can rebound well. Like we already have. Add a point of attack defender to slow up the transition attack. I dunno, Stephon Castle, as a giant PG. Team. Team Ogre.

It's not crazy. Its a tactic. Other teams are headed that direction. And as they get bigger, you will need a big boy option. This draft there's nobody bigger.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#944 » by DCZards » Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:14 pm

As it stands now, I want Castle as our lottery pick. Yes, he needs to become a better shooter but he has so many of the skills (and physical makeup) that you want in a modern NBA wing. His D, passing and bball IQ are all above average. I just love his intangibles.

I’m increasingly seeing Edey’s potential as an outstanding pro (thanks, in part, to doc) and I’m all for drafting him with our second first round pick…although I think he’ll be gone by then.

If we decide to go small with that second pick in the first round, I’m looking at a pure PG like KJ Simpson or Devin Carter. I also like Kevin McCullar in this spot if he’s available.

I’m starting to really like UNC’s Harrison Ingram. He’s a high energy player whose rebounding and defense will carryover to the NBA. (Tari Eason, doc?) The Zards should seriously consider taking him in the second round.

Adding Castle and Ingram to a perimeter D that already has Deni and Bilal would be awesome.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#945 » by nate33 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:If Edey is an actual 60% fg%, 65% TS% scorer who can give you 20-25ppg in the low post, drawing fouls and grabbing boards, I think it'd be a good way for a team to zig when everyone else is zagging. You can still play with space with a guy working in the low post, it doesn't have to be 5 out.

It's a big if though.


Yes, that's my personal big if. Zach is the Big IF. But it is not only my supposition. Turns out others have been crunching data on what I theorized. From an article in the Athletic:

Let’s start with the basic thing with which analytics impacted the NBA most heavily: Three is more than two. Basketball teams were incredibly slow to realize this and fully take advantage of it. As a result, for several years, a simple life hack stood available to any team interested in seizing it: increase 3-point attempts, and move up the offensive charts. Take away 3s, and move up the defensive charts. Three-point frequency correlated heavily with success at both ends.

Not anymore. We’ve now escalated to the point that the relationship has completely broken down. Everyone is launching 3s and spacing the floor now; if they’re not bombing away, it isn’t because of Neanderthal math; it’s because they suck at it. There are no more Brook Lopezes or Marc Gasols to suddenly unleash as 3-point shooters.

Teams are taking more 3s than ever, making up about 39.2 percent of total field goal attempts, but diminishing returns have hit hard. With league averages of 36.7 percent on 3s and 54.5 percent on 2s, we’ve roughly hit the threshold where a typical 3 no longer has a higher expected return than a typical 2. (A paper at this conference argued that once we account for the much higher free-throw rates on 2s, teams have actually already sailed past the equilibrium point here.)

In a related story, the relationship between frequency of 3s and overall offensive efficiency has broken down. The Memphis Grizzlies are third in 3-point rate and last by a mile in efficiency; on the flip side, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are second and third in offense, respectively, with below-average 3-point rates. (They still shoot 3s at rates that would have led the league as recently as 2016, mind you; they just haven’t needed to push the envelope any further.)

The more interesting story, however, is on the defensive end. The thing about stopping opposing 3-point attempts is that it turns out you literally can’t. Or at least, nobody has figured out how without opening the floodgates in other areas. While a few teams have had success with low opponent 3-point rates — Denver, Orlando and Minnesota — most of the teams at the top of this category are getting cooked.

The most notable example is Indiana, as any Pacers fan can attest; the Pacers have sold out on preventing 3s and give up just 28.6 per 100 possessions, by far the fewest of any team. They also rank 25th in defense, allowing a hailstorm of rim attempts and free throws as part of the bargain despite employing an elite rim protector in Myles Turner. Against most NBA teams, this strategy seems likely to backfire; protecting the basket remains the most critical part of defense, and even the best shot blockers can only “limit” an opponent to 65 percent or so shooting on rim attempts. Better to take those attempts away and surrender the rest to the whims of the 3-point variance gods.


The rest of the article goes on to suggest the strategy is blown open by the Celtics, who hit threes efficiently from every position on the floor, and can do so while remaining large. Which neuters the strategy of walling off the paint and collecting every miss with strong rebounding. Letting the Celts bomb away. But the Celts are an anomaly. They have Zinger and Horford who both can play at the high post, and teams have not yet given up on following the Bigs out of the paint. The Celts will be the sole team that can live with the strategy. At least until Wemby and Chet have shooters surrounding them.

And still. I think the counter to a Unicorn is an Ogre. Size all around. Stay big up front. Notice the teams that are cited as defending the 3 well: Minnesota, Denver both are huge in the front court. Orlando is uniformly big all around and have a demon defender at the point of attack. Their draft philosophy is to go big at every position. If you can shut down the court and rob teams of space, if you can force teams to rely on the outside shot, you have a chance even when teams play tall ball and hide their big guy outside the arc.

Porzingis struggled when teams forced him to play in the paint full time. He suffered injuries from the banging, his eFG% went down. He likes the option of floating out in space, but that does not mean you have to chase him out there. Wemby started the year hucking from way out top, but his efficiency increased when he played full time at center. However he's still broomstick thin. He doesn't do as well when you can body him. If you can force him back to that outside role you have a better chance. Chet lost a year to a bad bump, looks to me like he defends and scores while avoiding contact, using his slimness to slip into spaces on the interior and shoot over peoples heads. Zach will be as tall as any of them and outweigh them all, while still being balanced and mobile.

All Edey needs to add to his game on offense is a jumper above the FT line. That's it. If so he can be even more of a threat when he steps up to erase a defender with a pick. He's a dangerous roll threat even if seemingly slow. He has great hands even in motion. Has a bank shot/hook game that extends to the midrange and can shoot over everyones heads. He passes well, over and through traffic. If he can groove a standstill jumper, then all the backdoor action opens up for players like Kispert or Deni. He can pass over most defenders. If he can basically take his rainbow FT shot from 2 long steps backwards, he doesn't even have to jump. Nobody is blocking his shot even if it is a standstill set shot, high overhead. Like Marc Gasol or Brook cited above.

On defense, yes you would still need long mobile defenders who can switch everything and are smart enough to funnel penetration to your monster on the interior. Like say a trio of 6'9" guys who can rebound well. Like we already have. Add a point of attack defender to slow up the transition attack. I dunno, Stephon Castle, as a giant PG. Team. Team Ogre.

It's not crazy. Its a tactic. Other teams are headed that direction. And as they get bigger, you will need a big boy option. This draft there's nobody bigger.

I dunno, Doc.

Two of the top 3 teams in the league are OKC and Boston, and both rely on a skinny stretch 5 as their sole interior defender.

I don't see a lot of teams trying to get bigger and slower at center. Big plodders like Valanciunas and Nurkic are falling by the wayside and teams are not looking to find new guys to fit that prototype. I agree that teams are getting bigger, but I think what we are seeing is the return of the power forward.

Teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee and Minnesota are having success playing a jumbo-sized power forward, giving them one guy to defend the opposition's elite low post player, and freeing up their other big to roam the paint and play help D. Even teams like LA are trying it (with Rui guarding Jokic and Davis roaming). New York does it with Randle (or sometimes OG) playing big. Denver does it with Aaron Gordon, who plays more like an old school power forward rather than a new-school 3&D forward. Miami did it when Love was healthy.

So if I'm right, the solution isn't to draft Edey, it's to draft a guy like Murray-Boyles who is stout enough to play post D against a center, and free up our shot blocking center (not yet on the roster) to roam.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#946 » by NatP4 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:54 pm

I have a lot of pause on Edey still. A good productive regular season player? Sure. There’s a reason why Purdue has never won anything with Edey despite consistently being one of the top ranked teams in the country. Consistently get upset in the early rounds of the tournament by teams like FDU, North Texas, Saint Peters. We’ll see about this year.

Edey just hasn’t developed the ability to pass out of double teams. Posted a negative A/TO ratio all 4 years of college. 179 assists to 256 turnovers in his career. Defense is a real struggle and a major concern at the next level. I don’t see how he’s going to be able to stay on the floor in crunch time/playoffs. In any big NCAA game, teams just spread the floor and force him to guard outside the paint.

To me, Edey is a productive backup C you snag in the 2nd round. Produces like a Montrez Harrell type, as opposed to a guy you use a 1st round pick on and expect him to be a core piece.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#947 » by TGW » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:45 pm

Re: Stephon Castle

I've been trying to figure out who he reminds me of, and a recent lottery player stuck out to me: Isaac Okoro. Okoro is burlier, but their game appear similar. Both are slasher types that don't really excel at anything particular (Okoro has recently become a pretty good three point shooter though). Okoro is probably more athletic, while Castle possesses more guard skills. At the end of the day, is this the player I want at the top of a draft, and my answer is no. And that's not a dig on either player. Okoro is a useful NBA player, much like Castle will be, but picking Castle isn't a home run swing. It's is a base hit, maybe a double at best, at a position (G/F) that we are pretty deep at. Long story short...not my pick. Top 3 pick....you swing for the fences, especially in a weak draft like this. Tankathon has him at #10, and I think that's where he belongs.

Re: Edey

Edey is the most polarizing player i've seen in recent memory. My gut tells me he needs a lot of work to crack an NBA rotation. Right now, it's jump hook, more jump hook, and.....jump hook. And an occasional pinning of his man under the rim or screen and roll. If he wants to be in an NBA rotation, he has to develop some sort of face up game. Obviously, everyone wants to compare him to Yao, but Yao had a supreme face up game. Edey will need to diversify his offensive moves in order to have that same level of effectiveness.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#948 » by doclinkin » Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:59 pm

NatP4 wrote:I have a lot of pause on Edey still. A good productive regular season player? Sure. There’s a reason why Purdue has never won anything with Edey despite consistently being one of the top ranked teams in the country. Consistently get upset in the early rounds of the tournament by teams like FDU, North Texas, Saint Peters. We’ll see about this year.


Consistently? You credit Edey for the Purdue loss when he was a sophomore playing fewer minutes than Trevion Williams at the same position. Weak argument. Purdue hasn't won the Tournament because it is very hard to win the tournament. Can't say Purdue 'never won anything' when their record with Edey is 89-18. And has improved the more he has played. As he gets better he carries the team with him. Which is my point on him. His asst/TO ratio has improved. Even as his usage increases. Even while triple teamed. You have a habit of lumping in all of a players past years instead of crediting the advances. To an absurd level when you're citing the stats of a 15 year old like Risacher. Improvement is what creates stars out of talented nobodies.

TGW wrote:Edey is the most polarizing player i've seen in recent memory. My gut tells me he needs a lot of work to crack an NBA rotation. Right now, it's jump hook, more jump hook, and.....jump hook.


You forget also: dunk dunk dunk. That's the part that teams have to send defenders to stop. And foul. And where bigs have an advantage.

We've seen other mighty giants in the NCAA. Some like Tacko Fall with an ungodly 10'+ standing reach. You haven't seen me flack for all of these guys. Drew Timme or Tyler Hansbrough or Art Parakouski or Jahidi White, or whomever. There are guys who are built for college and likely to fall short at the next level.

But none of them have put up the stats that Edey has. Especially not at that combination of both efficiency and usage rate. And lack of fatigue. And durability. And steady improvement. You've got to figure he's doing something right. Some team will take him and figure out how to use him, and everyone will smack their heads saying they shoulda known. Hah, it'll probably be the Spurs.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#949 » by Benjammin » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:54 pm

If big Z is there with the second first round pick, I hope they take him.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#950 » by NatP4 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:50 pm

Actually, I cited NCAA tournament losses for all 3 seasons of Edey’s career, all of which came against inferior competition/lower seeded teams, a couple of embarrassing 1st round exits. It’s kinda like how I cited Risacher’s numbers from the last 4 years, not just his age 15 season. There’s no reason to continue to intentionally take people out of context in an attempt to win an argument.

I also posted his college career A/TO ratio, not any one year in particular. Obviously, the number has improved in 4 full seasons. As it stands, still significantly negative overall. With all the post touches and usage, he’s simply not a playmaker that you can run an offense through. He dunks the ball and shoots hook shots if you don’t double him.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#951 » by Hibachi_0 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:58 pm

Interesting matchup between LeDee and Clingan tonight. Looking forward to see more from Castle too
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#952 » by payitforward » Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:13 pm

Look... there are no "sure thing" draft picks. Not even at the very top of the draft.

Anyone remember when Zion was gonna be the greatest thing to hit basketball in decades? &, to be sure, he's turned out to be quite a good player too! But not that. Not a superstar or anywhere close.

That said, I've never seen a player with college numbers like Zach Edey's wind up failing in the league. Never. Period. Not even one time.

Of course, there's always a first time for everything! All the same, it's hard for me to imagine someone I'd be more likely to pick w/ our later R1 pick than Edey. Not the top one -- there would be no need to do that. Even though he might well wind up being the best player out of this draft, who knows...?
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#953 » by doclinkin » Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:09 am

NatP4 wrote:Actually, I cited NCAA tournament losses for all 3 seasons of Edey’s career, all of which came against inferior competition/lower seeded teams, a couple of embarrassing 1st round exits. It’s kinda like how I cited Risacher’s numbers from the last 4 years, not just his age 15 season. There’s no reason to continue to intentionally take people out of context in an attempt to win an argument.


Its just a stupid argument. I'm not taking out of context. You are providing no context.

You're counting it against the back-up freshman Center that a team full of upperclassmen lost against a motivated lower seeded team. He played scant minutes off the bench in a relief role. And your statement was: "There's a reason why Purdue has never won anything with Zach Edey...". It's clownalytics.

What a player did as a freshman is relevant if you are drafting him as a freshman. The reason why teams like youth is because they project those stats into the future and forecast potential future development. It is irrelevant when you actually can see the development. No crystal ball necessary. Edey was not a good player as a freshman. He's all world now. The no question 2-time best player in college. I mean we could go back into his toddler years to average his stats and sure he would look terrible. But the fact that he is improving this significantly is what's noteworthy.

Likewise what Zacky Ricochet did before he grew a single pubic hair is not quite as relevant as the fact that he is actually playing BETTER against tough competition. Go back and find all the superlatives you laid on Bilal, about how tough that league is, the 3rd best league in the world, etc, etc, ad nauseum, and apply the same standard to Risacher. Minus Wemby's gravity.

I also posted his college career A/TO ratio, not any one year in particular. Obviously, the number has improved in 4 full seasons. As it stands, still significantly negative overall.


Except it's not. In fact is is pretty close to flat-even. Edey is at a 2.1:2.2 ast/to ratio.

However what's notable is that he only coughs the ball up twice a game, considering his 33% usage rate. Everybody knows where the ball is going. He is doubled and tripled on every possession. Still manages absurd efficiency. And does not lose the ball, nor foul.

Look at it this way: 13.3FGA + 12.1 rebounds + 2.1 assists. In 26.5 touches a game, he loses the ball twice.

With all the post touches and usage, he’s simply not a playmaker that you can run an offense through. He dunks the ball and shoots hook shots if you don’t double him.


Ha! He takes hook shots when triple teamed, while being shoved. And makes them. More importantly, the hook is a shot he did not have as a freshman or at IMG. It's a smart shot since it is way above the traffic and not subject to being blocked. And if he is stopped outside the lane he still can reach up and put it on the shelf. It is one of the techniques he learned to avoid picking up offensive fouls instead of plowing through a crowd of little guys. It's basically a lay-up for him from out to 15 feet. But it's not only hook shots. Bank shot, drop step, little push shot. He's got better footwork than I've seen from most goliaths. Actually leaps for the lob dunk. Good second jump on offensive putbacks without bringing the ball down. And while he is not skying in from outside the FT line for a putback, even at 10-12 feet out from the basket he is only one hopstep away from a dunk. Or one dribble and stretches out for a one hand slam. Somehow we are arguing that his dunks and hook shots are a bad thing? He's hitting 62% While being fouled the whole time, even if they can only call about a third of the actual fouls.

Check him out again, the passing over the triple teams is what is new to his repertoire:

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#954 » by tontoz » Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:04 am

Clingan has looked pretty awkward trying to finish inside.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#955 » by doclinkin » Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:48 am

But Castle imposed his will on the game. I'd be happy with him as our pick. Toughminded. Defense. Team play. Floor leader. We'd be big around the perimeter. Even if we couldn't shoot.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#956 » by NatP4 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:02 am

None of my post was exclusive to Edey’s freshman season. Purdue has lost to inferior lower seeded teams in every year of his career. That’s 3 separate seasons. FDU and North Texas in round 1, and Saint Peters. His career A/TO is not flat even, it is 179 assists to 256 turnovers. Pretty simple google.

These are facts. No amount of YouTube highlight reels can change facts.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#957 » by NatP4 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:14 am

22/23: Purdue was ranked 3rd in the country and a #1 seed in the tournament, was 29-6 overall. 23.5 point favorite. Lost to #16 seed Farleigh Dickinson in round 1.

21/22: Purdue was ranked 10th in the country, 29-8 overall and a #3 seed in the tournament. Lost to #15 seed Saint Peters in the sweet 16.

20/21: Purdue ranked 20th overall, 18-10 overall. #4 seed in the tournament, lost to #13 seed North Texas in round 1.

We shall see about this year, but how is this not a pattern? Great regular season play, consistent top 10 ranking, but when it matters, Purdue never wins anything.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#958 » by doclinkin » Fri Mar 29, 2024 2:21 am

Obviously, the number has improved in 4 full seasons. As it stands, still significantly negative overall.


NatP4 wrote:None of my post was exclusive to Edey’s freshman season. Purdue has lost to inferior lower seeded teams in every year of his career. That’s 3 separate seasons. FDU and North Texas in round 1, and Saint Peters. His career A/TO is not flat even, it is 179 assists to 256 turnovers. Pretty simple google.


No because "as it stands" = in it's present condition. Meaning 'now'. You know, the year where Edey is a 2 time repeat POTY. And where his A/TO is no longer 'significantly negative'. And where he is not a freshman who played the 9th most minutes on the team, or sophomore at #6 on the depth chart. And where he has actually ironed out many flaws in his game.

But that's cool, from now on when we trade for a player I fully expect you to reference their rookie year and average that in to their current stats so I know what we are getting. Tell me about Stephon Castle's middle school stats, I wanna know if we should take him. :crazy:

Here we go. I found Paul George's freshman stats from highschool. Tell me how this relates to his possible hall of fame career:
https://www.maxpreps.com/ca/palmdale/knight-hawks/athletes/paul-george/basketball/stats/?careerid=sq4sl3k9ith22&sportSeasonId=7241e348-c3f2-4534-a68a-fd0e2675da5b
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#959 » by NatP4 » Fri Mar 29, 2024 3:21 am

Hate to break it to you, but career stats already include the rookie season of a player.

I don’t think it would be necessary to examine a player’s freshman year of high school numbers, but maybe their freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior years of college production are relevant in the evaluation/draft process? Just a thought.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#960 » by doclinkin » Fri Mar 29, 2024 4:15 am

NatP4 wrote:Hate to break it to you, but career stats already include the rookie season of a player.


Sure, and when you trade for a player is it because you expect their rookie stats? Or most recent.

The only thing relevant about a player's early stats is how they have changed and what that indicates about their ability to grow and adjust. You are not hiring a player's entire career, you are bringing in the player they are now. Giannis is scoring 31 points per game. As a rookie he scored 6. His career average is 23. What is more the relevant number to how he will likely perform next year?

Career improvement is a useful metric. Career average is meaningless. I suppose prior years could matter if there was an injury, coaching change or school change. But in that case averaging the numbers together would make even less sense.

I don’t think it would be necessary to examine a player’s freshman year of high school numbers,


My point exactly. Someone should tell this guy:

NatP4 wrote:3 main concerns on Risacher:
(currently 18 years old)
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers

(at 15 yrs old)
Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
2020/2021:

( at 15 yrs old)
Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect.


:lol:

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