The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[Rafael122]

BTW, DX latest mock has us taking Sarr at 2, and Kyshawn George with the Clippers pick.

[TGW]

Doc: "I hope the basketball gods let us see Clingan vs Edey. That's godzilla vs mechagodzilla. That would be a hellofa final. We might see Edey vs Kalkbrenner in the next round if all goes well."

[tontoz]

Cody Williams looked good yesterday on both ends. He is faster than I thought and has some game off the dribble. On defense he had some nice contests. On one ATO play he chased his man around 3 screens and still got a contest

Check out this move:

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

Sarr: not a good player in the Australian league. Rebounds like a wing, averages twice as many turnovers as assists, and can’t shoot at all. His biggest strength is being tall.

Risacher: is exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. Struggles defensively, limited off the dribble, not a playmaker. His upside is Michael Porter Jr.

Watch on YouTube

Not sure how you decide the top-end of a player based on their performance as an 18 year old. I'm also curious how you were so high on Bilal in the same league, but decided to become a naysayer on the next one, when Risacher has performed better. Without the benefit of playing next to Wemby.

My read on Rishacher is that he has an NBA role waiting for him without an 'if-he-could-develop-a' caveat. What he does already is a fit for what he is supposed to do at the next level. He gets open for the pass. Makes smart cuts. Finishes at the basket. Hits his shots whether open or closely guarded. Does not overhandle the ball. Shoots quick or passes and resets for the pass back. Sets screens for teammates. And plays smart team defense. To me his skillset looks truly advanced for a teenager in a grown man's league.

I agree, like most Euro players he will struggle on defense early on. The NBA doesn't let rookies get away with fouls, and Euroball allows players to be far more handsy and mug a ballhandler. NBA players are faster. He will see guards who are too quick and forwards who are too strong. He will get called for hacking. But he is a good-effort active defender who does not shy away from contact and is willing to be in the poster. He's smart. He marks the spaces between players and shifts to cut off angles. When ballwatching he stays in motion, still tracking his man instead of standing still with his feet planted. He will get significantly better as he gets stronger and more experienced.

If you are picking a teenager you are looking for upside. You are looking for mindset and potential growth. You also want them to have game-ready skills so they can actually earn minutes and not have to learn in practice (limited time) or by watching from the bench. Otherwise you hope they are motivated and have a team behind them to improve in the offseasons. Zaccharie has a team.

I don't think the kid is a finished product. I like his chances. I don't think he will get much thicker up top. But he has his dad's solid legs and balance. Plus at least 2 inches of height. (May be still growing). And 20 years of science and technology to learn to build strength. Here's his dad as a pro.

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

If I roll the dice on upside, I’m going with Castle. Holland and Buzelis are close behind him.

As I’ve said all year, Castle has a SGA type of skill set but he’s being asked to be a glue guy wing player in between 2 great upperclassman ball handling guards, and 2 great front court players. Karaban is an elite floor spacing PF, which allows Castle to not have to shoot and space the floor. He’s almost more of a small ball 4 right now.

I'm biased towards Castle. Like his demeanor and frame and defensive game. Though he's exactly the sort of caveat player that has an if-only attached to them. If he can learn to shoot from range, he could become a damned good player. Personally I wish he would stay in school one more year. He would take over that team, playing the role currently filled by highly accomplished upperclassmen. What Castle needs most is opportunity for leadership. I get the sense that is in his make-up, but he won't get to be the Guy in the NBA for a few years. In the NCAA he would seize the opportunity in one year. Normally I'd say he should come get his money, as a player mocked in the lottery. But I think he still has top 5 potential even next near if he showed a jumpshot and leadership skills. Maybe UConn has a booster come through with big $ to keep him. There's some rich folks in CT, and UConn is their only pro team. Basically.

The upside on Holland is that he cares more than anybody on court at any time. That is his superpower. His measurables I think will come up a little short. His heart measures large, but I think everything else will look underwhelming when they bust out the tapes. That said if you have heart there's no telling what your top end is. I'd rather have a guy who maxes out his solid talent than an if-only guy who falls short. BUT I don't think this front office takes him.

Buzelis is probably the most talented of the three in terms of positional size and versatility. His if-only is also his shooting since he is trying to play as a stretched out face-up wing player. The shot looks good, it just doesn't fall. He's got unicorn problems. So far none of the unicorns have won a chip. Maybe Porzingis gets one this year? Chet and Wemby are going to push for it.

Okay if we count Durant as a unicorn, then we have seen one, singular, uno, one dude win a chip as a giant 2 guard. I don't think he counts really.

[NatP4]

3 main concerns on Risacher:

Defense: twofold, poor feel for that end, gets lost regularly, caught ball watching alot, struggles with rotations. Also, fairly slow laterally, gets blown by. Guessing that anyone calling him a potential wing stopper is doing so based on measurements or highlight reels, not full games. He’s clearly below average on that end. Other teams seek him out on switches and go at him in isolation.

Playmaking/primary ball handling/isolation scoring: currently, he’s exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. There’s almost no off the bounce/isolation scoring.
A/TO ratio:
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers
2021/2022: 2.94 assists/2.75 turnovers
2022/2023/ 3.09 assists/3.22 turnovers
2023/2024: 1.47 assists/2.31 turnovers

Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
3pt%&FT%
2020/2021:
34% 83%
2021/2022:
32% 73%
2022/2023:
30% 70%
2023/2024:
42% 68%

Pretty streaky at best. Last 10 games of this season he’s shooting 28% from 3 and 61% from the free throw line.

Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect. Don’t see that as worth a top 5 pick.

[Benjammin]

^Unless the Wizards trade down, you have to pick someone. That's the reality of this draft.

[nate33]

Playmaking/primary ball handling/isolation scoring: currently, he’s exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. There’s almost no off the bounce/isolation scoring.
A/TO ratio:
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers
2021/2022: 2.94 assists/2.75 turnovers
2022/2023/ 3.09 assists/3.22 turnovers
2023/2024: 1.47 assists/2.31 turnovers

Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
3pt%&FT%
2020/2021:
34% 83%
2021/2022:
32% 73%
2022/2023:
30% 70%
2023/2024:
42% 68%

Pretty streaky at best. Last 10 games of this season he’s shooting 28% from 3 and 61% from the free throw line.

Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect. Don’t see that as worth a top 5 pick.

C'mon now! He was 15 years old in 2020/21.

[pancakes3]

i'm not too concerned about the kentucky kids. it's no secret that Cal only cares about getting his kids drafted high and he doesn't give a flip about winning games. in fact, I'm pretty sure he did an interview recently where he said his ultimate basketball goal was to have an allstar team of entirely Kentucky kids, not winning a championship, not going 32-0, nothing about college ball whatsoever.

his entire recruiting pitch is to say "i've got 10 guys playing at all-star caliber levels in the league from the past 10 drafts and nobody else has more than 3-4, and that's how you're gonna get paid."

no blue chip recruit is gunning for Tourney MOP, they want to be the #1 overall and get a supermax rookie extension. it's gotten to the point where if the guy's from Kentucky, you can assume that Cal already did some sort of vetting and can be somewhat assured that he's got guys whose games will translate, or else he's not gonna bother giving up a scholarship for the kid. 2000's Duke had a similar reputation, but on a lower level. You knew that everyone on that team is fundamentally sound, plays with effort, and has high IQ. You'd have to go back to 80's UNC and 70's UCLA to have the kind of draft dominance that Cal re: draft floors/ceilings for his players.

[payitforward]

Playmaking/primary ball handling/isolation scoring: currently, he’s exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. There’s almost no off the bounce/isolation scoring.
A/TO ratio:
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers
2021/2022: 2.94 assists/2.75 turnovers
2022/2023/ 3.09 assists/3.22 turnovers
2023/2024: 1.47 assists/2.31 turnovers

Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
3pt%&FT%
2020/2021:
34% 83%
2021/2022:
32% 73%
2022/2023:
30% 70%
2023/2024:
42% 68%

Pretty streaky at best. Last 10 games of this season he’s shooting 28% from 3 and 61% from the free throw line.

Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect. Don’t see that as worth a top 5 pick.

C'mon now! He was 15 years old in 2020/21.

Then there's the fact that Michael Porter Jr. is quite a good player -- & was absolutely tremendous before multiple back surgeries!

[NatP4]

To be clear, that’s Risacher’s top end outcome in my opinion: present day post-back surgeries Michael Porter Jr.

Not worth a top 5 pick. Would rather go way off the board and take Clingan 1st overall than pick Risacher or Sarr.

[bsilver]

Watching UConn last night didn't see where Castle was making a case to be a high pick. Had to look for him to see what he was doing. OTOH Clingan was dominating. He seemed quite mobile to me. I think he should be a top 5 pick and is much more a sure thing than Sarr.

[DCZards]

Watching UConn last night didn't see where Castle was making a case to be a high pick. Had to look for him to see what he was doing. OTOH Clingan was dominating. He seemed quite mobile to me. I think he should be a top 5 pick and is much more a sure thing than Sarr.

But that's what I like about Castle--he's a talented, heralded kid who doesn't press or feel the need to be "the man." Being on a team with very good, experienced players like Clingan, Newton and Spencer does mean you have to "look for him" to see what he's doing. But that's alright in this current situation.

In the second half of yesterday's game against Northwestern, Castle had the ball on a 2-on-1 break and probably could have taken it in for an easy bucket. Instead, he made a nifty pass to Newton for an even easier bucket. I like that kind of maturity and unselfishness on the part of a five-star freshman.

I could be way off but I believe Castle has the physical and mental makeup, and the bball skills, to be one of the top 2 or 3 players to come out of this draft.

[doclinkin]

Defense: twofold, poor feel for that end, gets lost regularly, caught ball watching alot, struggles with rotations. Also, fairly slow laterally, gets blown by. Guessing that anyone calling him a potential wing stopper is doing so based on measurements or highlight reels, not full games. He’s clearly below average on that end. Other teams seek him out on switches and go at him in isolation.
...

Playmaking/primary ball handling/isolation scoring: currently, he’s exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. There’s almost no off the bounce/isolation scoring.
A/TO ratio:
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers
...

Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
3pt%&FT%
2020/2021:
34% 83%
...
2023/2024:
42% 68%

Pretty streaky at best. Last 10 games of this season he’s shooting 28% from 3 and 61% from the free throw line.

Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect. Don’t see that as worth a top 5 pick.

C'mon now! He was 15 years old in 2020/21.

Right. It reads like a situation where someone has taken a stance and just decided to dig in on it. Cherry picking and confirmation bias. Like somehow the stats are more relevant for a 15 year old playing with and against other kids compared to when he is in an organized situation playing with grown adults in a pro league. That it is held against him that he has been MORE efficient when the stakes are higher and competition is harder.

It's also flat wrong. Most of the JL Bourg games are available online both live streamed on youtube or up as full games for a while before they are taken down. This is not a kid with inattention on defense. He might get beat on footspeed or muscle. Occasionally he will guess wrong on a screen when a skilled PG uses it to erase his pressure. But his coaches call upon him to attack the ballhandler. trust him with that primary role. And he does not give up on a play, chasing down when he has been beat and often erasing mistakes from behind with his length and shotblocking. Honestly it sounds to me like someone read a scouting report and picked a stance then doubled down on it. He tracks the ball while still shifting to deny the pass to his man, protecting against backdoors while providing weakside defense.

Me I've been watching the cat and the scouting reports have not been updated as his game grew.

Heres an example vs Ulm.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=basketballvideos

In his first shift they have him zoning up on the interior. Playing both to defend the paint and mark his wing attacker. I count one slip where his man scored on him, most of the time the scheme has him switching the screens and picks but he manages the space well and covers for worse defenders who are playing next to him.

Shift two they have him pressing the primary ballhandler. My guy Nuñez who is notably shifty. Nuñez uses picks and screens well. It's his main game. I count one instance at 30:30 where he fakes the kid in the wrong direction and blows past him on a rejected pick. Otherwise Nuñez is stalled in bringing up the ball and can't get past or shoot over him. Nobody is setting up switches to exploit him, the coaches send him out to break up the attack. Check the 35:00 mark where he forces Nunez to give up the ball then harrasses him to a late clock heave from 3 that misses.

In this game you can see him bodying up to block out Trevion Williams, who started ahead of Zach Edey. A big boy who carried like 270lbs at Purdue. Zacc is leaning on him and stuffing him out of the paint. When do you see Porter Jr ever detailed to both stop the primary ballhandler and fight above his weight class in the paint. MPJ is noted for shying away from contact, here you see an 18 yr old kid calling his own number on every defensive possession, staying with the action North South and East West. If there's a flaw in his defense it's that he is trying to do too much. All at once. Not that he is lost or not paying attention or disinterested on D like MPJ. Kid is already pretty good and is only going to get better. He may struggle early but when his body catches up to his understanding he should be above average at least. Good even, in team defense, with the right coach or scheme.

Nah you're wrong. It's okay. Be wrong. Own up to it and move on.

[tontoz]

Cody Williams on defense:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

To be clear, that’s Risacher’s top end outcome in my opinion: present day post-back surgeries Michael Porter Jr.

Not worth a top 5 pick. Would rather go way off the board and take Clingan 1st overall than pick Risacher or Sarr.

I think we will pick 5 or 6. Yeah it is soWiz to pick 1st in the year where there is no true #1 choice. But I think I'll be happy with the guys available with that top 5 pick. To be forced into the smart choice. LOL

[NatP4]

Defense: twofold, poor feel for that end, gets lost regularly, caught ball watching alot, struggles with rotations. Also, fairly slow laterally, gets blown by. Guessing that anyone calling him a potential wing stopper is doing so based on measurements or highlight reels, not full games. He’s clearly below average on that end. Other teams seek him out on switches and go at him in isolation.
...

Playmaking/primary ball handling/isolation scoring: currently, he’s exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. There’s almost no off the bounce/isolation scoring.
A/TO ratio:
2020/2021: 0.95 assists/2.54 turnovers
...

Shooting. The one thing he does really well currently, has been very inconsistent prior to this year.
3pt%&FT%
2020/2021:
34% 83%
...
2023/2024:
42% 68%

Pretty streaky at best. Last 10 games of this season he’s shooting 28% from 3 and 61% from the free throw line.

Almost identical to Michael Porter Jr as a prospect. Don’t see that as worth a top 5 pick.

C'mon now! He was 15 years old in 2020/21.

Right. It reads like a situation where someone has taken a stance and just decided to dig in on it. Cherry picking and confirmation bias. Like somehow the stats are more relevant for a 15 year old playing with and against other kids compared to when he is in an organized situation playing with grown adults in a pro league. That it is held against him that he has been MORE efficient when the stakes are higher and competition is harder.

Wait, what?

I posted the stats from the last 4 seasons including all games played in the pro league. Obviously didn’t value one particular year over the other. You are just making up random things to argue with yourself about. No need to take disagreement so personally.

How can you call someone “wrong” about a prospect 3 months prior to the draft anyways?

[NatP4]

To be clear, that’s Risacher’s top end outcome in my opinion: present day post-back surgeries Michael Porter Jr.

Not worth a top 5 pick. Would rather go way off the board and take Clingan 1st overall than pick Risacher or Sarr.

I think we will pick 5 or 6. Yeah it is soWiz to pick 1st in the year where there is no true #1 choice. But I think I'll be happy with the guys available with that top 5 pick. To be forced into the smart choice. LOL

It’s a different front office. They traded up to get Coulibaly over Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks, who were consistently mocked above Coulibaly. Ended up trading down in round 2. Dawkins has an elite draft resume.

We want the best pick possible. They will make the right decision.

[doclinkin]

C'mon now! He was 15 years old in 2020/21.

Right. It reads like a situation where someone has taken a stance and just decided to dig in on it. Cherry picking and confirmation bias. Like somehow the stats are more relevant for a 15 year old playing with and against other kids compared to when he is in an organized situation playing with grown adults in a pro league. That it is held against him that he has been MORE efficient when the stakes are higher and competition is harder.

Wait, what?

I posted the stats from the last 4 seasons including all games played in the pro league. Obviously didn’t value one particular year over the other. You are just making up random things to argue with yourself about. No need to take disagreement so personally.

How can you call someone “wrong” about a prospect 3 months prior to the draft anyways?

LOL. True. Honestly I think at this point we are all just working hard to find a guy in a year where we are finally tanking, but the prospects are all question marks. I have favorites all up and down the draft. But nobody I would pick at #1 overall.

Plus in the Ulm game he does get torched in the last few possessions. So, fair point. He's a college freshman against grown pros, every now and again he will slip.

[DCZards]

This article about Castle mirrors what I’ve been saying about his maturity and unselfishness. Talks a lot about his outstanding D, which would fit in real nice next to Bilal. I like the part about the impact of his parents. (Link to the full article is at the bottom.)

STEPHON CASTLE, UCONN'S 'ANTI-ENTITLED' FRESHMAN, STARS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE COURT
By John Fanta

There were plenty of individual standouts in UConn's dominant 75-58 win over Northwestern on Sunday night.

There was Dononvan Clingan, who lived up to his nickname of "Cling Kong," posting 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks, becoming the first player to put up a performance of that nature since The Admiral, David Robinson, accomplished the feat for Navy back in 1986.

There was point guard Tristen Newton, who put together a 20-point, 10-assist gem, his 11th double-double of the season.

All of those performances were impressive, but in the midst of the Huskies' victory over the No. 9-seeded Wildcats, a five-star freshman showed why he will likely be a lottery pick this June, not with how he scored, but in the way he defended an All-American guard in Boo Buie.

The Wildcats' fifth-year senior guard was held to 0-for-6 shooting from the floor and only two points in the first half. He finished the final game of his college career going 2-of-15 and ended up with nine points.

That's because Stephon Castle made a statement. The 6-foot-6 wing from Covington, Georgia showed his length and willingness to play with physicality in meeting the challenge against Buie.

"Steph is the anti-entitled five-star freshman," Dan Hurley said following his program's eighth straight NCAA Tournament win by double-digits, one shy of a Big Dance record. "He does nothing but help his team win. The size, the speed, the foot strength. Steph caused problems."

Castle, the son of Quannette, a Delta Airlines employee, and Stacey, who works in education, credits his parents for keeping him focused.

"Other parents, when they see their kids, they want the best for them, but they want them to take every shot and be the star on the team," Castle said. "They've been real with me my whole life. They don't sugarcoat anything for me. They push me to work hard, and they've been unbelievable supporters."

Ironically, Castle's defensive showcase, which likely got the attention of several NBA scouts, came at the same site where the 2024 NBA Draft will take place – the Barclays Center. While Castle is expected to enter this summer's NBA Draft, Hurley says the freshman standout is focused on the present, which goes back to his parents.

"I saw his parents … I saw them rip his you know what, multiple times," Hurley said. "His parents aren't fans. They hold him accountable and responsible to have an elite work ethic and be coachable and not thinking that the world spins around him at 17, 18 years old. We knew what we were getting, and NBA teams, you know they salivate over him.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/stephon-castle-uconns-anti-entitled-freshman-stars-on-both-ends-of-the-court