The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[doclinkin]

In the podcast below they are very negative on Topic...He is rated as a back up guard in a good scenario, who is pretty bad defensively...

They are also quite negative on Risacher and fine with Sarr taken in the lottery though probably not top 5 in a "normal" draft.

The way I see this draft, I would not select Topic or Risacher in the top 6 where we will draft. Full disclosure, I am not overly excited about anyone in this draft, but, if I was Dawkins/Winger, this would be my board:
1) Sarr
2) Clingan
3) Castle
4) Sheppard
5) Dillingham

You can see I have two centers at the top. I think both Sarr and Clingan are likely to be pretty decent defensively from the get go, which is something this team desperately needs.

Yeah honestly the first picks on my board would be Trade Down and Trade Forward. I want more future picks so we can reload on the fly or consolidate a few for the right swap later. I'm happy with many of the guys pencilled into the late lotto or mid first. I don't know that I have a top 3 this year LOL.

Every player I've liked developed flaws during the process, with the exception of Castle who steadily maintained his flaws but his strengths grew even stronger. So by default he has become my favorite in the draft. At this point I want to slide to 4-5 with him still on the board so we will be forced to pick the guy that I know will be able to do what he can do, with a chance for a better upside. More so than risk a pick on a guy whose upside may be an all-star, but whose flameout potential is bigger or whose current flaws bother me.

--Sarr. I don't want a big who does not rebound and can't finish in traffic, plays small.
--Topic. I don't want a guard who is dribble heavy but can't hit from outside, and does nothing else but dominate the ball. Including disinterest on Defense.
--I wish Risacher had not fallen apart, but he did. Do you bank on a skinny 18 year old to develop consistency? Was his rise fuled not by love of the game but by having a pro team around him that is geared to landing him a top pick, but not future improvmeent?
--Dillingham. Child sized guards no longer are spotlit, in fact with rules changes they are becoming an endangered species right now.
--I like Holland for his energy, he will not cheat you on effort. But he will not measure long for his position, so defense and rebounding will be sub-par.

I like Sheppard for his game smarts, he maxed out all the categories of Fundamentally Sound. He's a okay if underwhelming in upside.
I like Clingan for his defense and passing, but have a suspicion there will be Centers picked later who will have a stronger two-way effect and greater upside. Kel'El Ware for instance, if not my other guy.
I suspect Knecht will be able to do what he does at an NBA level. Including both scoring AND not defending.

I dunno. I expect there will be some shuffling after the combine measurements. And of course post-lotto when the picks are locked in. I trust our brain trust to make the right read. But right now my ideal scenario would be land #1, sell off Sarr to drop back a couple spots, pick Castle plus a package of picks.

[nate33]

But right now my ideal scenario would be land #1, sell off Sarr to drop back a couple spots, pick Castle plus a package of picks.

That works for me. Of course, it depends on the return.

I'd do it in a heartbeat if we could trade back from #1 to #5 while picking up a 2025 likely lotto pick in the process. But I'm not sure if any team would trade a 2025 lotto pick to move up for Sarr. I think the only type of offers we would get would be a late 2025 pick to move up. Maybe a team like Memphis makes that move, assuming the 2025 pick they convey won't be very good.

Toronto might be the best bet. Would they trade an unprotected (or, say top 3 protected) 2025 pick to move up from #6 to #1? They might do so thinking that they're good enough to avoid the lottery next year in a weak East.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

In the podcast below they are very negative on Topic...He is rated as a back up guard in a good scenario, who is pretty bad defensively...

They are also quite negative on Risacher and fine with Sarr taken in the lottery though probably not top 5 in a "normal" draft.

The way I see this draft, I would not select Topic or Risacher in the top 6 where we will draft. Full disclosure, I am not overly excited about anyone in this draft, but, if I was Dawkins/Winger, this would be my board:
1) Sarr
2) Clingan
3) Castle
4) Sheppard
5) Dillingham

You can see I have two centers at the top. I think both Sarr and Clingan are likely to be pretty decent defensively from the get go, which is something this team desperately needs.

Yeah honestly the first picks on my board would be Trade Down and Trade Forward. I want more future picks so we can reload on the fly or consolidate a few for the right swap later. I'm happy with many of the guys pencilled into the late lotto or mid first. I don't know that I have a top 3 this year LOL.

Every player I've liked developed flaws during the process, with the exception of Castle who steadily maintained his flaws but his strengths grew even stronger. So by default he has become my favorite in the draft. At this point I want to slide to 4-5 with him still on the board so we will be forced to pick the guy that I know will be able to do what he can do, with a chance for a better upside. More so than risk a pick on a guy whose upside may be an all-star, but whose flameout potential is bigger or whose current flaws bother me.

--Sarr. I don't want a big who does not rebound and can't finish in traffic, plays small.
--Topic. I don't want a guard who is dribble heavy but can't hit from outside, and does nothing else but dominate the ball. Including disinterest on Defense.
--I wish Risacher had not fallen apart, but he did. Do you bank on a skinny 18 year old to develop consistency? Was his rise fuled not by love of the game but by having a pro team around him that is geared to landing him a top pick, but not future improvmeent?
--Dillingham. Child sized guards no longer are spotlit, in fact with rules changes they are becoming an endangered species right now.
--I like Holland for his energy, he will not cheat you on effort. But he will not measure long for his position, so defense and rebounding will be sub-par.

I like Sheppard for his game smarts, he maxed out all the categories of Fundamentally Sound. He's a okay if underwhelming in upside.
I like Clingan for his defense and passing, but have a suspicion there will be Centers picked later who will have a stronger two-way effect and greater upside. Kel'El Ware for instance, if not my other guy.
I suspect Knecht will be able to do what he does at an NBA level. Including both scoring AND not defending.

I dunno. I expect there will be some shuffling after the combine measurements. And of course post-lotto when the picks are locked in. I trust our brain trust to make the right read. But right now my ideal scenario would be land #1, sell off Sarr to drop back a couple spots, pick Castle plus a package of picks.

I don’t have Dillingham in my top 5, but do have him above Topic.

[badinage]

What if we won the lottery, and then traded out of the draft entirely — never been done before. Is it realistic that a team would give us a 2025 no. 1 and a 2027 no. 1? Or — better — a 2025 no. 1 and a 2026 no. 1 acquired from another team?

[nate33]

What if we won the lottery, and then traded out of the draft entirely — never been done before. Is it realistic that a team would give us a 2025 no. 1 and a 2027 no. 1? Or — better — a 2025 no. 1 and a 2026 no. 1 acquired from another team?

The reason why we are so willing to trade out of the lottery is the same reason others won't be that interested in trading into it.

As to the return we would get, it depends on what you mean by "no.1". Not all first round draft picks are the same. I'm sure OKC would give us a late 2025 pick and a late 2026 for our high lotto 2024 pick, but that doesn't sound so great, does it?

I'd trade for just one 2025 pick if I knew the pick was going to be high. Like, maybe a trade with Portland, who has no chance to succeed next year in a ridiculous Western Conference.

[NatP4]

It's fascinating the contrast between Dillingham and Sheppard. They are polar opposites in their style of play. Sheppard is selective and efficient, but lacks the explosion and creativity to create in space. His game promotes ball movement and teammate involvement but he can't really get you a bucket on his own. Dillingham is reckless and wild, but makes jaw-dropping highlights and can get off a (bad) shot whenever he wants, making more than you would expect.

It's so hard to predict where they will end up in the NBA.

I could see Sheppard leveling up in the NBA with a more structured system and better spacing. His ability to pull up off of a high screen may be all the on-ball shot creation he'll need. If you are great at that one skill, it makes the pick-and-roll a deadly weapon. Stockton didn't really have any moves but was a Hall of Famer. On the other hand, maybe Sheppard is just an undersized shooting guard who is mismatched defensively at that position - a Grayson Allen. That's not very exciting at the top of the lottery.

Likewise, you can look at Dillingham and see Kyrie or Arenas - just an audacious ability to get a shot off and get to the rim and create havoc. But he also has tunnel vision and horrific shot selection. He might just be Bones Hyland.

Comparing Dillingham to Kyrie Irving is insane. Irving drew fouls at 3x the rate of Dillingham, posted a 70% TS and was literally unguardable.

That’s a generational prospect vs a 6th man microwave scorer.

[doclinkin]

Eurocup doesn’t even feature the top teams in Europe. It’s a 2nd tier competition for teams that don’t make the Euroleague.

Cool let's look at all those top players in the ABA and see how they stack up against the 2nd tier competition of the Eurocup.

https://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/18/Adriatic-League-Liga-ABA/players/1222
Sort by country, in reverse order, find by Round 1 and Round 2 picks.

The only name you can find in the league that anyone would recognize is Frank the Tank Kaminsky. If you search long and hard you can also find the husk of Shabazz Napier among all the players with last names ending "-itches". 4 1st round picks, but none more recent than Frank at 2015. 18 2nd rounders in the total list. But of those 2nd round draftees looks like only Joel Bolomboy played in the NCAA. So. Pretty much not what you said.

Compare with the limited teams in the Eurocup, where the rosters can at least boast of Trevion WIlliams and Sam Dekker, Mike James, a few others who had a sip of java in the NBA. Not notables but more recently seen in the NBA anyway. 3 1st round picks, 15 rd 2 picks, in the limited pool of invited teams. A few NCAA players.
https://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/2/Eurocup/players

The majority of Risacher's games were played in what is now the French Jeep Elite. Boasting names like Kemba Walker and a few other former NBA-ers who had actual careers here. 4 1st round picks, 14 2nd rounders. 8 NCAA players who were 2nd round picks.
https://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/12/French-Jeep-Elite/players

But RIsacher actually played well in Euroleague play. There you can find most of the names listed above plus guys like Denzel Valentine, the Hernangomez hermanos, Bellinelli, Ibaka, Rubio, etc. who had significant careers then retired to the better life of overseas ball.
https://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/1/Euroleague/players

I will cede that the loose goose Topić played well. Against poor competition. I don't like his game in that I don't think it works against the bigger faster players he will face in the NBA. Teams don't let you skip into the paint and fling up uncontested lay-ups. I don't see evidence of a midrange game that will translate if he is forced to pull up, and the opposite of an outside shot to set up his dribble drive. And I don't think his style works in that he has to diddle with the ball for 5 or 6 dribbles to set up his interior attack. Meanwhile his teammates stand around uninvolved, and defenses get set.

I don't see how it translates. If I am stacking him against Risacher to decide between them, I'd take the skinny kid who has a game and a role in the NBA without having to change what he does already. Even if he will have to get stronger before any part of it can translate. That role fits in next to any player. Topic you would have to build an entire team around to suit what he does. Don't see that it's worth it.

[NatP4]

I don’t know what Risacher has to do with Topic. I simply corrected you posting incorrect information, which you just did again when you said “Risacher has played well in Euroleague play”. He has not played in the Euroleague. His team is not on Euroleague.

I also have no idea where the idea of comparing the Adriatic league to the NBA comes from, or the French league for that matter.

I specifically contrasted the ABA league to NCAA in another thread, comparing Dillingham’s numbers to Topic’s numbers.

[DCZards]

Likewise, you can look at Dillingham and see Kyrie or Arenas - just an audacious ability to get a shot off and get to the rim and create havoc. But he also has tunnel vision and horrific shot selection. He might just be Bones Hyland.

I’d draft Dillingham with the hope that with coaching, maturity and experience he’d learn to play the right way.

He’s signed with Klutch Sports (LeBron’s agency) so he’ll probably have access to the mentoring and wisdom of King James.

[NatP4]

Jokic in ABA per 36: 20.1 points 11.8 rebounds 3.9 assists 1.7 steals 1.2 blocks 2.5 turnovers 61% TS- won MVP of the league

Saric in ABA per 36(20 years old): 18.7 points 10.4 rebounds 3.7 assists 1.1 steals 1.0 blocks 3.8 turnovers 58% TS-won MVP of the league

Nikola Topic in the ABA+3 euroleague games per 36(18 years old): 19.1 points 7.1 assists 4.2 rebounds 1.1 steals 0.2 blocks 3.1 turnovers 60.4% TS- clearly would’ve won MVP if he doesn’t get hurt.

Guys like Jokic and Sengun didn’t play in Euroleague. Deni put up 10 points 7 rebounds 3 assists on 51% TS in Euroleague. Vukcevic couldn’t get any minutes in Euroleague or the ABA. That’s some perspective. Our 2nd round pick from last year, who is 21 years old, couldn’t get minutes in the league that Topic would’ve been MVP.

Young players hardly ever play a significant role and succeed in Euroleague. We’re talking about rare exceptions like Luka and Wemby. Topic even playing in a couple of Euroleague games and playing a sizeable role at 18 years old is rare.

He’s easily the top pick in the draft.

[closg00]

Likewise, you can look at Dillingham and see Kyrie or Arenas - just an audacious ability to get a shot off and get to the rim and create havoc. But he also has tunnel vision and horrific shot selection. He might just be Bones Hyland.

I’d draft Dillingham with the hope that with coaching, maturity and experience he’d learn to play the right way.

He’s signed with Klutch Sports (LeBron’s agency) so he’ll probably have access to the mentoring and wisdom of King James.

I have the more confidence in Dillinghams upside than any of the other Top-10 picks, even if we could get Sarr, I fear that Dillingham could be the far better pick. If we can’t get Sarr I’d be happy taking Dillingham and the best of the leftover Centers with other FRP.

[pancakes3]

What's the upside on Dillingham though? It's not Kyrie. I figure it's Brunson/Mitchell. I will say though, dude can shoot.

[payitforward]

With our #51 pick I like... Jonathan Mogbo:

First, take a look at these numbers! https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jonathan-mogbo-1.html
He's a 4-5 in college -- yet, he averages over 5 assists per 40 minutes & posts a .648 TS% even though he really can't shoot much.

Now look at some video:

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=LeagueHim
Above all, notice his ability to put the ball on the floor, his passing, & the way he moves w/o the ball.

I see an NBA player -- a pretty good one too. & if he develops a jumper (let alone a 3 !!) -- watch out!

[The Consiglieri]

What’s our second first-round pick — number what?

Our picks:
Top 6.
26.
50.

Is "26" locked as 26, or could it move if the Clippers flame out in round 1?

[closg00]

What's the upside on Dillingham though? It's not Kyrie. I figure it's Brunson/Mitchell. I will say though, dude can shoot.

His upside is becoming a great PG with already lethal scoring ability, he is the number 1 ranked prospect on some boards, call him a Kyrie-type player.
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/prospect-rankings/

[Rafael122]

What’s our second first-round pick — number what?

Our picks:
Top 6.
26.
50.

Is "26" locked as 26, or could it move if the Clippers flame out in round 1?

It's based on wins at this point I think.

[payitforward]

Our pick at #26:

Johnny Furphy? I like him!
Here's a good analysis by a guy who is pretty clearly a coach:

Watch on YouTube

Tyler Kolek? I like him too!
Here's a good analysis of Kolek by the same guy:

Watch on YouTube

In both cases, it's analysis not hype. By a grown-up professional. In all it's a good channel: https://www.youtube.com/@HoopsProfile

[The Consiglieri]

It is finished.

The season of tanking has come to fruition.

Unfortunately, this draft is nebulous near the top. Seems to me mediocre teams who select mid to late lottery have an equal chance of selecting the best player.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

I think it's more the era of tanking. This team is gonna be god awful for years, it's just unfortunate we finally got a clue in time for the worst draft in forever, and in time for rule changes with the lottery that are criminally stupid and incredibly nasty towards garbage teams like ours. I fully expect us to bottom 3 in '24-'25 as well, and probably bottom 5 in '25-'26 with plenty of bottom 3 potential. Hopefully we land the #1 ball combination next year, rather than this.

[pancakes3]

I think our squad is markedly more talented than the other bottom dwellers like Portland, Detroit, Toronto, and Brooklyn. Charlotte was bad too but that's due to Lamelo being injured; they've got talent on their roster.

We were sunk by Poole playing historically awful, and also playing a bunch of guys major minutes that have no business getting major minutes (Johnny Davis, Muscala, Anthony Gill, Omoruyi, Champagnie).

Next season, we have a decent roster that in my estimation is comparable to Orlando/Atlanta, which is good enough for late lottery picks but also play-in competitive. And the east is soft enough that even if we drew a Knicks or Cavs, it'd be a 7 game series.

But that fits my personal expectations for the Wizards - to be marginally competitive. Cooper Flagg would be great, but I don't think we'll be in the running unless Poole inexplicably has another historically terrible 55-game run, and we decide to give 10+mpg to a bunch of 2-way contract guys again.

That said, if we trad Kuz away for say... Gordon Hayward's expiring + pick, and we're forced to throw Bilal into the deep end, sure, we'd easily be in the Flagg/Bailey conversation.

That's actually not a bad deal. OKC gets to offload some of their first rounders for Kuz, who has no choice but to play the role he's best at in being a 3rd option. OKC also needs PG depth in the worst way possible so a s&t with Tyus Jones?

Kuz + Tyus for Hayward + Isaiah Joe + 2 protected picks (Utah top 10 protected expiring 2026 in time for Boozer Twins, Miami top 14 protected expiring 2026, Clippers unprotected 2026 pick)?

[nate33]

I think our squad is markedly more talented than the other bottom dwellers like Portland, Detroit, Toronto, and Brooklyn. Charlotte was bad too but that's due to Lamelo being injured; they've got talent on their roster.

We were sunk by Poole playing historically awful, and also playing a bunch of guys major minutes that have no business getting major minutes (Johnny Davis, Muscala, Anthony Gill, Omoruyi, Champagnie).

Next season, we have a decent roster that in my estimation is comparable to Orlando/Atlanta, which is good enough for late lottery picks but also play-in competitive. And the east is soft enough that even if we drew a Knicks or Cavs, it'd be a 7 game series.

But that fits my personal expectations for the Wizards - to be marginally competitive. Cooper Flagg would be great, but I don't think we'll be in the running unless Poole inexplicably has another historically terrible 55-game run, and we decide to give 10+mpg to a bunch of 2-way contract guys again.

Sorry, but you are totally wrong on this. Yes, Poole was a trainwreck for most of the year, but that alone doesn't turn a 36-win team into a 15-win team.

This team is NOT good. Our starting center is a guy who couldn't get minutes on freaking Detroit. Our backup center is a guy who only managed to play 237 minutes in Dallas, a team with only one true center - a rookie. Coulibaly is an extremely inefficient player despite extremely low usage. His on/off on the second worst team in the league was -4.4. He has a long way to go. Kispert is a nice backup who would start on maybe 6 or 7 teams in the league. Poole wouldn't start on more than a handful of teams either. The only guys on our roster who would start on 75% of the teams in the NBA are Kuzma and Deni. Deni would be the third or fourth best player on most teams. Kuzma, the fourth or fifth. We have nobody on our roster who would be a top 2 player on a .500 team.

This team is going to stink next year. Maybe they'll be a bit better than 15 wins, but I wouldn't expect more than 24 or so. The league has gotten really good.

Look at it this way. How many teams in the NBA are worse than us next year? I can't confidently name a single team. I think Portland will probably finish with a worse record because they play in the West, but they have more talent than us. Detroit has more talent than us too, though they have terrible coaching. So maybe we beat Portland and Detroit. Probably one more kinda bad team has a bunch of injuries and finishes below us too. But that's about it. There's no way we finish better than the 4th worst record in the league.