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The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#881 » by DCZards » Fri Mar 22, 2024 8:43 pm

nate33 wrote:The thing that bugs me about Castle is that he gets virtually no elevation when he jumps. He can bully ball skinny college kids, but he's actually not all that quick or explosive. It's not like he is prime Baron Davis, with the ability to get past defenders even though they aren't respecting his jumper.

So basically, he is a PG who can't shoot and can't really blow by people. That bully ball game can be easily negated by just putting a bigger player on him.

I’m not seeing a lot bully ball when I watch Castle. I’m seeing a guy who uses his lean frame to gain an advantage by being more slithery than physical.

Agree that he’s not necessarily explosive but neither is SGA who Castle has been compared to. Not suggesting, of course, that he has SGA-level talent.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#882 » by Jay81 » Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:28 pm

If Bilal was in this draft..he would be easily the #1 pick lol
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#883 » by NatP4 » Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:22 am

The Florida-Colorado game was insane. Game of the year.

KJ Simpson with 23-5-5 on 12 shots and a step back game winning jump shot with 1 second left.

Tristan Da Silva should be flying up everyone’s board. He was unstoppable. Plays an almost identical game to Kyle Kuzma, but a better shooter.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#884 » by Jay81 » Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:53 am

NatP4 wrote:The Florida-Colorado game was insane. Game of the year.

KJ Simpson with 23-5-5 on 12 shots and a step back game winning jump shot with 1 second left.

Tristan Da Silva should be flying up everyone’s board. He was unstoppable. Plays an almost identical game to Kyle Kuzma, but a better shooter.

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#885 » by payitforward » Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:55 am

DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:The thing that bugs me about Castle is that he gets virtually no elevation when he jumps. He can bully ball skinny college kids, but he's actually not all that quick or explosive. It's not like he is prime Baron Davis, with the ability to get past defenders even though they aren't respecting his jumper.

So basically, he is a PG who can't shoot and can't really blow by people. That bully ball game can be easily negated by just putting a bigger player on him.

I’m not seeing a lot bully ball when I watch Castle. I’m seeing a guy who uses his lean frame to gain an advantage by being more slithery than physical.

Agree that he’s not necessarily explosive but neither is SGA who Castle has been compared to. Not suggesting, of course, that he has SGA-level talent.

The SGA reference is very interesting, Zards.

On the numbers, Castle & SGA posted very similar results in their 1 college year:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/stephon-castle-2.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/shai-gilgeous-alexander-1.html

In neither case were the numbers anywhere near spectacular -- good, yes, but not particularly great. & they're pretty similar -- esp. if you look at the per 100 possessions.

Seems pretty clear that, taken at 12, SGA was one of the 3 best players out of that draft, the other 2 being Luka (3) & Brunson (33). Is that fact predictive in Castle's case? Nah -- yet, it could turn out that way... who knows?
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#886 » by closg00 » Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:10 pm

NatP4 wrote:Castle is the guy that has the most to gain from a deep run in the tournament. Uconn has a crazy difficult bracket, will need Castle to breakout and be the x factor if they are going to beat Auburn and Iowa State back to back.

Outside of that, we're in the home stretch, the top 10 is just about settled. The Ignite was a total disaster, it hurt Holland and Buzelis and is going away for good reason. I think this should be the top 10:

1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan
4. Collin Murray-Boyles
5. Matas Buzelis
6. Ron Holland
7. Stephon Castle
8. Kel'el Ware
9. Dalton Knecht
10. Devin Carter
Sarr, Risacher, Holmes, Simpson, Walter, Filipowski, and Furphy in some order after that.


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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#887 » by doclinkin » Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:39 am

closg00 wrote:
Reed sh*t the bed on the big stage, I wonder if he'll stay one more year now, he could be a dropper if he stays


No way. Next year's draft is stronger. If he stays it'd be against any agent's advice. He won't be in the discussion for top 5 next year. I mean it'd show big cojones if he bets on himself and manages to improve next year. That'd be awesome. Somehow I think it would be impossible to improve on historically efficient stats, not in limited minutes, and without playing next to a high volume gunning senior and a flashy ballhandling phenom that drew a ton of attention from opposing defenses.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#888 » by 9 and 20 » Sun Mar 24, 2024 7:38 am

If we draft Sheppard, I hope he turns out great. Until he plays in the NBA and proves that, I'll be pretty mad about slogging through the worst season in franchise history for a short white dude who's drafted based on stat nerd opinions, excuse me stat nerd facts.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#889 » by tontoz » Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:12 pm

I think I will check out UConn to get a look at clingan and castle. Clingan looks like a high floor player.

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#890 » by nate33 » Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:
closg00 wrote:
Reed sh*t the bed on the big stage, I wonder if he'll stay one more year now, he could be a dropper if he stays


No way. Next year's draft is stronger. If he stays it'd be against any agent's advice. He won't be in the discussion for top 5 next year. I mean it'd show big cojones if he bets on himself and manages to improve next year. That'd be awesome. Somehow I think it would be impossible to improve on historically efficient stats, in limited minutes, without playing next to a high volume gunning senior and a flashy ballhandling phenom that drew a ton of attention from opposing defenses.

Yeah, even if he slides big time, there's no way he slips out of the lottery. If he doesn't go top 5, he'll still go by 11 or 12 at the latest. The risk reward calculation is really bad for going back to school if you know you will be a lottery pick. If he is drafted 12th, his rookie contract will pay him $18.5M.

Is it really worth it to go back to school and gamble that he can move up? Given the strength of the top of the draft next year, it looks all but impossible to break into the top 5 or so. So if he is drafted 6th, that's a rookie contract that pays him $27M over 4 years, but he has one less year in his career to earn money. Is that worth the risk? No way.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#891 » by NatP4 » Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:31 pm

Excited for Colorado-Marquette.

Kam Jones, Tyler Kolek, and Ighodaro all look like 1st round picks to me. Reminds me of the Nova team with Brunson, Divincenzo, and Bridges.

Colorado has Simpson, the most underrated player in the country, and Tristan Da Silva, who is flying up mock drafts. Cody Williams is starting to look healthy and contributing again. Dangerous team.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#892 » by NatP4 » Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:42 pm

9 and 20 wrote:If we draft Sheppard, I hope he turns out great. Until he plays in the NBA and proves that, I'll be pretty mad about slogging through the worst season in franchise history for a short white dude who's drafted based on stat nerd opinions, excuse me stat nerd facts.


Sarr: not a good player in the Australian league. Rebounds like a wing, averages twice as many turnovers as assists, and can’t shoot at all. His biggest strength is being tall.

Risacher: is exclusively a spot up/movement shooter. Struggles defensively, limited off the dribble, not a playmaker. His upside is Michael Porter Jr.

Cody Williams: Liability defensively, doesn’t get steals or blocks, rebounds like a PG, poor feel for the game, more turnovers than assists. He can score, but only 15 points per 36.

If I roll the dice on upside, I’m going with Castle. Holland and Buzelis are close behind him.

As I’ve said all year, Castle has a SGA type of skill set but he’s being asked to be a glue guy wing player in between 2 great upperclassman ball handling guards, and 2 great front court players. Karaban is an elite floor spacing PF, which allows Castle to not have to shoot and space the floor. He’s almost more of a small ball 4 right now.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#893 » by dobrojim » Sun Mar 24, 2024 6:15 pm

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/23/zach-edey-7-foot-4-purdue-nba/

Kinda interesting piece. She praises his (Edey) college dominance but predicts he won't be much in the NBA.
edit to add -Actually now that I re-red it, she's not going on any limbs with her predictions.


Can he become a passable 3 point shooter? It may come down to that.


PPS - from what I've seen, Clingan looks a bit more promising.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#894 » by NatP4 » Sun Mar 24, 2024 11:12 pm

Jared McCain looks really good. 8 3s today, up to 30 points. Looked great in round 1. Has had a solid but unspectacular freshman season (at 20 years old). Would be happy with him at 25th overall.

Seems like a ton of a solid guards will be available late 1st. McCain, Kolek, Simpson, Carter. That extra pick is gold.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#895 » by tontoz » Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:59 am

NatP4 wrote:Excited for Colorado-Marquette.

Kam Jones, Tyler Kolek, and Ighodaro all look like 1st round picks to me. Reminds me of the Nova team with Brunson, Divincenzo, and Bridges.

Colorado has Simpson, the most underrated player in the country, and Tristan Da Silva, who is flying up mock drafts. Cody Williams is starting to look healthy and contributing again. Dangerous team.


Watching now. Koleck looks bigger than Sheppard. I wonder if his listed ht/wt are from his freshman year.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#896 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:35 am

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#897 » by Frichuela » Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:54 am

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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#898 » by Tyrone Messby » Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:21 pm

9 and 20 wrote:If we draft Sheppard, I hope he turns out great. Until he plays in the NBA and proves that, I'll be pretty mad about slogging through the worst season in franchise history for a short white dude who's drafted based on stat nerd opinions, excuse me stat nerd facts.

What does being white have anything to do with it? :roll:
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#899 » by doclinkin » Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:59 pm

dobrojim wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/23/zach-edey-7-foot-4-purdue-nba/

Kinda interesting piece. She praises his (Edey) college dominance but predicts he won't be much in the NBA.
edit to add -Actually now that I re-red it, she's not going on any limbs with her predictions.


Can he become a passable 3 point shooter? It may come down to that.


PPS - from what I've seen, Clingan looks a bit more promising.


I agree Clingan has significant potential as a mobile giant, a defending big man who can pass a little bit and cover a large section of the court. There is a reason he is mocked in the lottery. I'd have no complaints taking him high up the draft board.

My contention on Edey is he will have serious value where he is picked. He will be better than many of the players picked before him. There are those who suggest he is unplayable. That part I disagree with.

I think the 3pt shot is irrelevant though I suspect he will add one. His free throw shot is a rainbow, incredibly high arc, which is one reason why ultrabigs like Shaq fail to develop a shot from the line, they bounce line drives off the rim because they have a poor angle and no backspin. Teammates say he hits them in practice, he says he doesn't shoot the 3pt shot because its an inefficient shot in college. Given his effectiveness up close he is absolutely right. He doesn't need to. He is unstoppable underneath and teams are forced to foul him.

That is the aspect that is in question at the NBA level. Does his size translate to efficiency at the next level and force teams to foul him? A three point shot is more valuable than a two, unless your 2 pt shot is significantly more likely to go in AND you force opponents to send you to the line.

Here's the thing about that: the NBA is cracking down on offense since the all-star break. Fouls are being called less. Every sort of foul. Essentially the rules we see in the postseason are beginning to be called the same way in the regular season. If you want to score, you better be strong enough to do so. Better be able to score through contact.

Edey does. He scores on triple teams, he scores while being absolutely mauled by defenders. He has the advantage of being huge, and also happens to have soft touch, uses the backboard, has every shot in the low post arsenal (I mean other than a dream shake fadeaway). In the NBA he is not going to get shorter. He's also not going to see triple teams. If he is scoring efficiently teams will be forced to play at least one Big. But he is still learning and improving even in college, there is no telling where that stops since he has added aspects to his game even during this season.

Sure, he may develop at 3 pt shot, he may develop a passing game from the top of the key, these are two revolutions in the game that have been reviving Bigs even at the college level. Where bigs are learning the Jokic playbook. (Revolution? Throwback. To Bill Russell's Celtics. Everything old gets new again). He already passes well out of the doubleteam. But Edey isolated in the paint will force teams to foul him, and will score through contact, and may force refs to actually call those fouls. Refs are less likely to swallow the whistle on fouls when you make them call the and-1 after an obvious hard foul.

So again it boils down to defense and whether he is too slow. Okay sure, he is too slow. I don't think he is unplayably slow. AND. Refs are calling all fouls less. Even 3 second technicals. I think the game is tilting back towards power basketball. Refs are trying to slow it down a bit. I think the new generation of skilled Bigs is forcing a paradigm shift. Where every successful team has a superbig line-up. Let the giants back into the game again.

I hope the basketball gods let us see Clingan vs Edey. That's godzilla vs mechagodzilla. That would be a hellofa final. We might see Edey vs Kalkbrenner in the next round if all goes well.

But yeah, that was a weak article. The same thing that has been written over and over with no new insight. Meanwhile Edey keeps leaving a wake of ruined hopes behind him as Purdue crushes through the tournament.

Sorry, somebody set off the Edey signal and I had to grab my cape.
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Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking! 

Post#900 » by Rafael122 » Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:09 pm

It took like 15 minutes to play the final 2 minutes of that Houston/A and M game. Ref reviews, timeouts, TV timeouts. The product is absolutely a terrible TV experience. I think they should do away with the rule that if the team just made a shot, they're not allowed to call a timeout. What is that about?
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