The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[dobrojim]

Scouts and GMs are really going to earn their money and show their acumen even at the top of this draft.

I'll preempt PIF and say that this is true every year. Scouting and projecting NBA impact
is really hard.

[NatP4]

Scoot, Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, Wiseman, RJ Barrett, Ayton, Bagley, Ball, Fultz, Simmons, Russell, Okafor. List goes on and on.

There will always be a bust in the top 3, multiple busts potentially.

[Benjammin]

There are some years where at least the top three are clear. This year has the most uncertainty I can remember.

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[dobrojim]

I used to think the same thing. Now I have _some_ doubt about that. I guess saying
'some years' gives some truth to it. (I recognize I'm using the same escape hatch)

[NatP4]

There are some years where at least the top three are clear. This year has the most uncertainty I can remember.

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Really, when? Not in the last 20 drafts.

There’s always a bust in the top 3. I made this same statement last year when the consensus top 3 was Wemby/Scoot/Miller. It was blatantly obvious which of the 3 was likely to bust.

Portland could’ve just looked at the results from 20 consecutive drafts and chosen to go off the board with a Thompson twin, would’ve been fine.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s too early to call anything on Scoot, but he’s been awful. The mocks ALWAYS get it wrong. Right now they love Risacher and Sarr. It’s them and everyone else.

I’m very concerned for the wizards. I don’t know if we have the balls to trade out of 1/2.

[dobrojim]

The last couple comments got me thinking...

Are there measurable characteristics/traits that either significantly raise the likelihood
or indicate the improbability of success for prospective NBA players, or do they have to
be in a package which has to include other traits? For instance, 3 point shooting especially or
shooting generally form a minimal requirement? That seems like an obvious important skill,
since ultimately, you win games by doing that better than your opponent which I recognize is
a complex outcome since your ability to diminish your opponents shooting is a key factor in ultimately
being better at scoring points yourself.

TSW says these 4 factors are paramount:

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

Assuming that is true, one would think that getting players that improve your team in those
4 areas should be an important consideration in drafting.

Should the question always be asked, how will player X improve us in these keys to winning?

[tontoz]

The mistake people make routinely in the draft is overrating measurements/athletic testing and underrating basketball skill.

[Benjammin]

I think we are looking at two different things. Rating players prospectively versus evaluating a draft retrospectively. Even in the 80s with how strong many of the drafts were (many four year players in college) retrospectively there would still be mistakes, especially with big men. I am mainly concerned with prospectively, usually there is more clarity at the top of a draft than this one.

[pancakes3]

I agree with TSW's four factors but 1) I still think those are derivative stats for what you're actually trying to quantify; and 2) I think there are too many confounding variables when comparing prospects for it to be especially accurate. Useful, but not surefire reliable.

For instance:

efg% doesn't take volume into consideration.
offensive rebounding doesn't take scheme/coaching into consideration. same with ballhandling.
ft% doesn't take either volume or scheme into consideration, but it may be the most isolated and trustworthy stat out of the 4, because even if you're in a scheme where you don't get a lot of volume, and are still able to go in cold and nail your FT's, you're demonstrating what the stat is meant to capture - ability to shoot the basketball.

efg really is meant to capture skill/ability. Whether you dunk it or launch logo 3's, you know how to put the ball in the basket.

offensive rebounding means you're a smart, attentive, and athletic player who's able to track shots, get into position, and hustle your butt off to get that board.

ball handling means you're skilled, have good bbiq, and trusted/talented enough to be a significant decisionmaker within the offense.

it all still boils down to capturing what the eye test consists of: smart, skilled, athletic, and hustles.

So when the tape comes back, and someone evaluating the film says "oh, well, contextually, the team doesn't use Player X in a way that's conducive to offensive rebounds because they're being coached to sprint back and anchor the defense," you can kind of explain away low ORB% compared to Player Y.

Or the tape comes back and says "well he's got a 2.5:1 A:TO rate, but he's really more of a 3 point specialist or a low post finisher and there are some really questionable swing passes or cross-court passes on film," then maybe a guy like Reed Sheppard doesn't scream "HOF ball handler" the same way CP3's 2.4 A:TO rate does (hyperbole as an example).

I agree with Tontoz that athleticism enjoys an undeserved premium when evaluating talent, but then you have guys like Giannis and Embiid that come along (KG, Dwight, etc.) with such unnaturally absurd athletic talent that you start telling yourself that with the proper coaching and player development... it *could* work...

[Frichuela]

The mistake people make routinely in the draft is overrating measurements/athletic testing and underrating basketball skill.

Agreed. This is why I am so intrigued by Reed Sheppard. His statistical production and basketball IQ on display are stellar.

The analysis below is from a poster ("The Moose") on the RealGM draft board. Reed's numbers are very compelling...

-----

So Reed is currently sitting at 11.5 BPM, outstanding production for a freshman, currently in tied 8th position since 2008 behind Zion, AD, Beasley, Chet, KAT and Mobley. He's now tied with Harden for 8th, so, currently in a tie for best freshman guard BPM since 2008.

We have pretty solid history of freshman BPM being a useful projection tool for draft prospects.

In the last 10 years (since 2014), there has been 47 freshman 6'2+ who have registered an 8+BPM (40%+ mins played). Out of those 46, 39 (84.7%) are currently on nba rosters, only Josh Jackson, Gary Clark, Jontay Porter, Stanley Johnson, Justice Winslow, Vernon Carey Jr, Jahlil Okafor are not.

Conversely, in that same 10 year span, we have 2133 (6'2+, 40+% mins played) players that registered sub 3 BPM as freshman, 30 of which are currently playing in the NBA, so 1.4% of those players.

Now, if we continue to look at the last 10 years, 24 freshman have been drafted in the first round with an 8 BPM and 10%+ ast rate. A sub 10% ast rate is indicative of largely off ball players, typically wing shooters or rim running bigs.

So let's look at the list of freshman who had outstanding production in on ball and offensive creation roles.

1. Zion
2. Chet
3. Kat
4. Mobley
5. Lonzo
6. Brandon Miller
7. Dlo
8. Embiid
9. WCJ
10. Trae
11. Jabari Smith
12. Ayton
13. Simmons
14. Zhaire Smith
15. Winslow
16. Jamal Murray
17. Tyus Jones
18. Fultz
19. Josh Jackson
20. Suggs
21. Stanley Johnson
22. Booker
23. SGA
24. Herro

Lets break down this list into tiers

MVP Candidates/Superstars
Embiid
SGA
Booker

Allstars/Past Allstars
KAT
Simmons
DLO
Trae

Borderline all stars / future all stars
Zion Williamson
Jamal Murray
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley

Starters/ impact players
Herro
Suggs
Ayton
WCJ
Lonzo
Tyus Jones

TBD
Miller
Jabari

Busts
Zhaire Smith
Stanley Johnson
Justice Winslow
Josh Jackson

Weird injury
Fultz

So, at least from my own assessment, we have :

11/22 (excluding Miller and Jabari as its too early to say) = between superstar and borderline all star
6/22 = starters/impact players
4/21 = busts
1/21 = freak injury

Essentially, 17/22 (77%) are somewhere on the spectrum of superstar to starters/impact players.

All four of the busts failed primarily because they can’t shoot, all four are 31% or below career 3pt shooters and below 75% career ft shooters as wings, and then Fultz is Fultz.

I think we can safely assume Reed won't bust due to shooting ineptitude, and with that in mind we have 10 years worth of data to suggest it''s very likely, given his freshman production, that Reed becomes an impactful nba player at the least.

As far as his draft range, the average pick for this list of 24 players is 5.2.
I think its certainly justifiable to have Reed in the top 5 based just on recent history

[dckingsfan]

When I go to tankathon and run the lottery - we always seem to come up with the 1st or 5th pick.

#soWizards = 5th pick, Reed Sheppard?

[payitforward]

There are some years where at least the top three are clear. This year has the most uncertainty I can remember.

Actually... I think there are NO years where the top three are clear -- there are just some years where opinions about who should go 1-2-3 are more widely shared than in other years.

The opinions rarely turn out to be correct when translated into subsequent play in the NBA. In fact, it's rare that even 2 of the top 3 chosen turn out to be among the top 3 players from that class.

What seems so weird to me is that even a cursory glance at the history of the draft makes my point obvious -- try to come up with a single example why don't you? -- yet people keep repeating this claim. Go figure....

[pancakes3]

In the last 10 years (since 2014), there has been 47 freshman 6'2+ who have registered an 8+BPM (40%+ mins played). Out of those 46, 39 (84.7%) are currently on nba rosters, only Josh Jackson, Gary Clark, Jontay Porter, Stanley Johnson, Justice Winslow, Vernon Carey Jr, Jahlil Okafor are not.

nothing to add except lol @ duke

[doclinkin]

When I go to tankathon and run the lottery - we always seem to come up with the 1st or 5th pick.

#soWizards = 5th pick, Reed Sheppard?

In a year without a clear number one I fully expect the top of the list to remain volatile. The players possible at #5 are about equally likely to be the guys discussed at #1.

That said measurements and Tourney play often shake up the rankings. Tourney play should be especially interesting since a few of the top picks this year are college kids. Somebody will catch hot and become a fan favorite. Scouts are fans too.

Sheppard, Castle, Dillingham, maybe Knecht or Clingan -- all could climb into discussion at that #5 spot with strong tourney play. If Sheppard carried the team to a chip then he'd be in the conversation at #1.

Where the NCAA players gain by the tournament, overseas players and the Ignite prospects can make up the gap at the combine. Though that goes double for college ballers who measure well. Outlier measurements could boost the stock of Clingan, Ware, maybe Ivisic. Especially in the case of Ware and Clingan if they max out in the athletic testing. A guy like Ulrich Chomche could leap a few spots with a strong showing in this section of the combine.

Usually good play in the scrimmages doesn't boost players up into lottery range, but guys like DaRon Holmes might climb into the lotto if he both measures and plays well.

Often the combine serves to drag players down. Some players totally reshape their body in the run up to the draft. A guy like Dillon Jones could climb or fall based on something as stupid as body fat %. Front court guys like Oso Ighodaro or Izan Almansa could slip based on their standing reach.

[doclinkin]

Watch on YouTube

Zaccharie Risacher, projected 1st overall pick, out with a concussion
2024 February 24 06:25

Risacher got hit in the face while playing for the French national team in the EuroBasket 2025 Qualifiers and had to leave the game early. The player has entered concussion protocol.

Credit FIBA
The French national team relatively easily beat Croatia in the EuroBasket 2025 Qualifiers on Friday. However, Zaccharie Risacher managed to play for only four minutes.

The French national team announced the player would not travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina with his teammates. The 18-year-old forward, who is projected to go 1st overall in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft both by ESPN and The Athletic, has entered concussion protocol.

Risacher was hit in the face during the third quarter and did not finish the match. Namely, Croatia's Jaleen Smith was driving to the basket when Risacher committed a shooting foul. In the motion, Smith hit Risacher's face with his left backhand.

After the episode, blood could be seen on Risacher's face, seemingly coming from his lip. The talented forward stumbled to the team's bench and did not finish the game.

In just over four minutes of play of his debut match for the national team, Risacher missed both of his shots, grabbed a rebound, and committed one foul. It is currently unclear when Risacher will return to the basketball court.

As a kid with a reckless childhood I can say: Concussions will rock you. Mess with your equilibrium and confidence. Oddly I never got concussions from rock and bottle fights. Playground nonsense. Martial arts. Skateboarding. BMX. Fighting with wooden weapons and carpet/duct tape armor in the back yard. Or vandalism. It was always something dumb like an errant flipturn in the shallow end of the pool. Or getting my ankles taken out trying to outjump someone swinging a downed tetherball. Or a Mime class, true story. One car accident where I went through a windshield. Even in my seatbelt. Because the kid in the van who was seated behind me did not wear his belt and shoved me and my seat through the glass.

But yeah, whatever he does in the next couple months would not shake me. In his first game back he shot 4-10 in 29 minutes. Pushing too hard to prove something. In less than 2 weeks back on court. In his next he only took 4 shots. 3 weeks out from the hit. He's still wobbling. The docs told me to take a month or more off from strenuous activity back then. And even when I regained my balance it took a while before I could trust it.

I'll be curious if his numbers rise over the rest of the season, but a concussion hits a reset button on whatever groove you were in before it hit.

[NatP4]

24 points 7 rebounds 4 steals 2 assists on 15 shots for Murray Boyles against Arkansas.

[NatP4]

Saw some footage of Murray-Boyles shooting jump shots this week. Here’s one:

Watch on YouTube

Form looks textbook. Even shoots it off the dribble. Reading all over that his wingspan is somewhere in the range of 7’2-7’3.

Last 10 games he’s shooting 84% from the FT line and 70% from the field. This is against elite competition.

I have him top 5 at this point. He’s 18 years old, but clearly one of the best players in the country. Would easily take him over Sarr, Risacher, Williams. Right there with Topic and Sheppard.

[doclinkin]

Saw some footage of Murray-Boyles shooting jump shots this week. Here’s one:

Watch on YouTube

Form looks textbook. Even shoots it off the dribble. Reading all over that his wingspan is somewhere in the range of 7’2-7’3.

Last 10 games he’s shooting 84% from the FT line and 70% from the field. This is against elite competition.

I have him top 5 at this point. He’s 18 years old, but clearly one of the best players in the country. Would easily take him over Sarr, Risacher, Williams. Right there with Topic and Sheppard.

Those are big Wes outlet passes. And much more bouncy than I've seen in his low-post-only play. Yeah he has an x factor about him. Fun to see. If he's hitting jumpers in workouts or the combine he will climb onto more teams' radar. As a short low-post guy he's less interesting to squads, but with range he is an NBA player.

[nate33]

Those are big Wes outlet passes. And much more bouncy than I've seen in his low-post-only play. Yeah he has an x factor about him. Fun to see. If he's hitting jumpers in workouts or the combine he will climb onto more teams' radar. As a short low-post guy he's less interesting to squads, but with range he is an NBA player.

I really like these doughy natural athletes who move way better than they should be able to given their body composition. There's a whole additional upside that can be realized if he just sheds the unnecessary body fat.

Try putting on a 10-pound weight belt and going out and playing basketball. Then take the weight belt off.

[AFM]

Nate delving into what I call his "WizD bag"