The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

The next draft is always better than the current one. It’s nonsense. Plenty of overhyped 25 prospects will disappoint when the season starts and it’ll be the same talk about 26.

If a team offers you a 2024 1st in the 12-18 range for Kuzma, it’s an obvious yes.

[doclinkin]

Risacher last 10 per36: 15.64 points 4.2 rebounds 1.0 assists 1.3 steals 0.3 blocks 2.3 turnovers 47% TS

Last game, 20 minutes played: 3 points on 0-7 shooting 1 rebound 1 steal 0 assists 3 turnovers

Belongs nowhere close to the top of the draft. Holland and Buzelis are much better prospects.

Again, he was knocked out of the game in French qualifiers against Croatia, Has been on concussion protocol the last 2 games. I think he came back too early, less than a month. In the games before, you know, brain damage he was improving steadily with multiple games of 20+ points, despite coming off the bench as an 18yr old behind multiple vets in the back court.

Eurocup play, per 36: 19.6 pts/5.5r/1.7a/1.2s/.6b
Hitting .566 from 3 and .568 from 2.

French league play per 36: 16.3/5.6/1.5a/1.5s/.5b
Shooting .380 from 3 and .51 from 2.

The stats include the 2 post-concussion games where he shot poorly, going 4-12 in his 1st game back and 0-7 in the next.

I do think the slump will knock him down a few spots where he will be on the board in the 5-6 range. Recall that even if we have one of the top-2 worst records the strongest % chance is that we pick 5th, since the rest of the lotto teams all have a chance to jump into the top 4.

[payitforward]

The last couple comments got me thinking...

Are there measurable characteristics/traits that either significantly raise the likelihood
or indicate the improbability of success for prospective NBA players, or do they have to
be in a package which has to include other traits? For instance, 3 point shooting especially or
shooting generally form a minimal requirement? That seems like an obvious important skill,
since ultimately, you win games by doing that better than your opponent which I recognize is
a complex outcome since your ability to diminish your opponents shooting is a key factor in ultimately
being better at scoring points yourself.

TSW says these 4 factors are paramount:

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

Assuming that is true, one would think that getting players that improve your team in those
4 areas should be an important consideration in drafting.

Should the question always be asked, how will player X improve us in these keys to winning?

First off, here are the two numerical factors that win basketball games. There are two -- & there are no others:

1. TS%. if you have a higher TS% than your opponent, you have a chance to win the game.

2. Number of chances to score (i.e. possessions that eventuate in FGAs or FTAs). If your total of FGAs plus FTAS/2 (counting FTAs as 1/2 a FGA for obvious reasons) is higher than your opponent, you have a chance to win.

Now, it's important to understand the following two facts --

a. f you accomplish both those goals -- i.e. your team has more chances to score & also posts a higher TS% -- you cannot lose. It's mathematically impossible. No exceptions. Never. Can't happen.

b. If you accomplish neither goal -- i.e. your team has fewer chances to score & also posts a lower TS% -- you cannot win the game. It's mathematically impossible. No exceptions. Never. Can't happen.

That's just the way it is. Period. Hence "help the team win" means "help the team have a higher TS% than the opponent" & "help the team have more shots-plus-.5/FTAs than the opponent." Period.

Nothing else helps the team win. For which reason, a player who posts a high TS% is doing something that helps his team win games. & a player who adds an above average number of possessions for his position is also doing something that helps his team win games. The more a player does either or both, the more he helps.

Of course, basketball is a team game. Thus, player A can help player B get an easy shot -- but, it only helps the team win if B actually makes the shot! Still, players make easy shots at a higher clip than more difficult shots, so....

Of course, each of these also has an inverse version -- a player can give his team the higher TS% &/or more chances to score by holding down the opponent's TS% & number of FGAS/FTAs.

So, if you want to know whether a player is "good" (meaning that he helps you win games), you look at his TS%, his usage, & his possessions added.

One thing you don't do is look at how many points he scores -- i.e. in isolation from his TS%. Kuz scores lots of points, but his TS% is low, & he isn't a good player.

[NatP4]

Terrence Shannon with 40 points on 22 shots against Nebraska. Now averaging 23 points per 36 on 61% TS, draws an absurd amount of free throws.

He and Knecht are probably going to be solid pros. Just tunnel vision scorers. Both already 23 years old. Shannon will be the Quenton Grimes type from this draft.

[Mizerooskie]

The next draft is always better than the current one. It’s nonsense. Plenty of overhyped 25 prospects will disappoint when the season starts and it’ll be the same talk about 26.

If a team offers you a 2024 1st in the 12-18 range for Kuzma, it’s an obvious yes.

The scouting community has been wary of 2024 quality for several years. It's not just the "future is better" phenomenon.

I think the more likely scenario is people overvaluing 2024 prospects because of the tank and the extra FRP.

[NatP4]

Nonsense. Also, if the consensus with the “scouting community” is that 2025 is a significantly stronger draft, Kuzma should have significantly less value in terms of 2025 draft capital vs 2024 return. Another factor to weigh.

Great players in every draft. 2024 will be no different. The “scouting community” was all about the 2024 class prior to the season starting. Holland, Buzelis, Collier, Sarr, Castle, Risacher. It only turned into a disappointing draft whenever the 5 stars disappointed and the lowly 4 stars like Reed Sheppard exploded.

We’re supposed to only have to google their Rivals rating and watch 10 minutes of YouTube highlights!!

[nate33]

Nonsense. Also, if the consensus with the “scouting community” is that 2025 is a significantly stronger draft, Kuzma should have significantly less value in terms of 2025 draft capital vs 2024 return. Another factor to weigh.

Great players in every draft. 2024 will be no different. The “scouting community” was all about the 2024 class prior to the season starting. Holland, Buzelis, Collier, Sarr, Castle, Risacher. It only turned into a disappointing draft whenever the 5 stars disappointed and the lowly 4 stars like Reed Sheppard exploded.

We’re supposed to only have to google their Rivals rating and watch 10 minutes of YouTube highlights!!

There are unquestionably good draft years and weak draft years. It's subjective to assess what a group "consensus" really is, but I feel like I've been hearing that the 2024 draft class would be weak since all the way back during the 2023 draft.

[DCZards]

Nonsense. Also, if the consensus with the “scouting community” is that 2025 is a significantly stronger draft, Kuzma should have significantly less value in terms of 2025 draft capital vs 2024 return. Another factor to weigh.

Great players in every draft. 2024 will be no different. The “scouting community” was all about the 2024 class prior to the season starting. Holland, Buzelis, Collier, Sarr, Castle, Risacher. It only turned into a disappointing draft whenever the 5 stars disappointed and the lowly 4 stars like Reed Sheppard exploded.

We’re supposed to only have to google their Rivals rating and watch 10 minutes of YouTube highlights!!

There are unquestionably good draft years and weak draft years. It's subjective to assess what a group "consensus" really is, but I feel like I've been hearing that the 2024 draft class would be weak since all the way back during the 2023 draft.

No doubt the scouting community seems to have labeled the 2024 draft “weak.” It’s their job to have an opinion.

But there’s really no way of knowing what was a weak draft class or a strong draft class until probably 3-4 years after the draft. Projections sometimes turn out to be waaayyyy off.

I’m with Nat. There are outstanding players to be found in every draft…sometimes well into the second round.

You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to identify a Giannis or Kawhi or Butler or Brunson or Joker.

[NatP4]

Yeah the “scouting community” routinely gets it wrong. Doesn’t really matter what the 2024 consensus is as of now.

My personal opinion is that if Kuzma returns a 2024 lottery pick, I’m taking it. No telling what could happen in the future.

[doclinkin]

Terrence Shannon with 40 points on 22 shots against Nebraska. Now averaging 23 points per 36 on 61% TS, draws an absurd amount of free throws.

He and Knecht are probably going to be solid pros. Just tunnel vision scorers. Both already 23 years old. Shannon will be the Quenton Grimes type from this draft.

Terrance Shannon's draft stock is ballasted by his rape trial scheduled for May. Not going to indulge in speculation on the merits of the case. The charges range from misdemeanor sexual assault to rape, stemming from an incident in a bar. I haven't brought him up because yeah. Stats are fine, character matters. Who knows the real story.

[doclinkin]

For bargain hunters looking for players who might be stolen late or undrafted but could perform at the next level. TS% standouts include

Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton seven footer playing tough in the resurgent Big East. DPOY winner. Blocks everything. Not a dominant rebounder, streaky from outside but has shown occasional range out there:

Watch on YouTube

Joseph Girard III. Instant offense flamethrower with one of the prettiest shots in the college game. Had a slump this year, still posted high percentages. Must be guarded off ball due to his instant flick quick release off motion.

Watch on YouTube

I hope Indiana State gets in the tourney. They have 3 TS% darlings in Jayson Kent, Julian Larry, and the most unusual player in the game in Point Center Robbie Avila.

Watch on YouTube

Jayson Kent is a next level athlete. Big time rebounder and defender at 6'8"+ I'd love to steal him if he enters the draft.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Nonsense. Also, if the consensus with the “scouting community” is that 2025 is a significantly stronger draft, Kuzma should have significantly less value in terms of 2025 draft capital vs 2024 return. Another factor to weigh.

Great players in every draft. 2024 will be no different. The “scouting community” was all about the 2024 class prior to the season starting. Holland, Buzelis, Collier, Sarr, Castle, Risacher. It only turned into a disappointing draft whenever the 5 stars disappointed and the lowly 4 stars like Reed Sheppard exploded.

We’re supposed to only have to google their Rivals rating and watch 10 minutes of YouTube highlights!!

There are unquestionably good draft years and weak draft years. It's subjective to assess what a group "consensus" really is, but I feel like I've been hearing that the 2024 draft class would be weak since all the way back during the 2023 draft.

No doubt the scouting community seems to have labeled the 2024 draft “weak.” It’s their job to have an opinion.

But there’s really no way of knowing what was a weak draft class or a strong draft class until probably 3-4 years after the draft. Projections sometimes turn out to be waaayyyy off.

I’m with Nat. There are outstanding players to be found in every draft…sometimes well into the second round.

You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to identify a Giannis or Kawhi or Butler or Brunson or Joker.

Of course some drafts are better than others! Which you learn in retrospect not in advance -- as Zards points out.

Again... general opinion was that the 2011 draft was going to be weak. It wasn't. General opinion was that the 2012 draft was going to be strong. It featured one of the worst R1s in a long long time. & so forth....

[dorianwrite]

For bargain hunters looking for players who might be stolen late or undrafted but could perform at the next level. TS% standouts include

Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton seven footer playing tough in the resurgent Big East. DPOY winner. Blocks everything. Not a dominant rebounder, streaky from outside but has shown occasional range out there:

Watch on YouTube

Joseph Girard III. Instant offense flamethrower with one of the prettiest shots in the college game. Had a slump this year, still posted high percentages. Must be guarded off ball due to his instant flick quick release off motion.

Watch on YouTube

I hope Indiana State gets in the tourney. They have 3 TS% darlings in Jayson Kent, Julian Larry, and the most unusual player in the game in Point Center Robbie Avila.

Watch on YouTube

Jayson Kent is a next level athlete. Big time rebounder and defender at 6'8"+ I'd love to steal him if he enters the draft.

Watch on YouTube

Longtime Syracuse fan here. Run away hard from Joe Girard. Too streaky as a shooter; doesn't have the handles to play point guard and too small for shooting guard; easily overwhelmed on defense.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

The Clippers lost again. They are currently slated for the 24th pick in the draft, but are just 1 game ahead of New Orleans, 2 games ahead of New York (who has won 3 in a row with OG back), and 2.5 games ahead of Orlando. I'd say the odds are fairly good that they end up with the 23rd or 22nd pick.

Also, the Sun are currently in a tie with Dallas for 7th/8th place. They might end up in the play-in, which they could lose and end up adding some lotto balls to our total..

[JAR69]

Also, the Sun are currently in a tie with Dallas for 7th/8th place. They might end up in the play-in, which they could lose and end up adding some lotto balls to our total..

Did we get their lotto balls in the Beal trade? I'm not clear how that works. I know we have the right to swap firsts, but can you explain this? Thanks.

[JAR69]

Also, the Sun are currently in a tie with Dallas for 7th/8th place. They might end up in the play-in, which they could lose and end up adding some lotto balls to our total..

Did we get their lotto balls in the Beal trade? I'm not clear how that works. I know we have the right to swap firsts, but can you explain this? Thanks.

NVM - figured it out. If they end up higher than us in the draft because they get lucky in the lottery, we swap firsts with them. Brain not working yet.

[tontoz]

We need the Bucks and Cavs to finish strong. Cavs has been struggling with injuries.

[nate33]

Also, the Sun are currently in a tie with Dallas for 7th/8th place. They might end up in the play-in, which they could lose and end up adding some lotto balls to our total..

Did we get their lotto balls in the Beal trade? I'm not clear how that works. I know we have the right to swap firsts, but can you explain this? Thanks.

If Phoenix loses the play-in and winds up out of the playoffs, they will have the 14th position in the draft lottery, which gives them a 2.4% chance of landing a top 4 pick. We are going to be a bottom 2 team in the draft lottery which gives us a 52.1% chance at a top 4 pick.

But the lottery selection takes place before any pick swaps take place. If Phoenix gets lucky and lands a top 4 pick, that pick will go to us (assuming they leapfrogged us when they landed a top 4 pick). So the way to look at it is their top 4 odds essentially get added to our top 4 odds, so our odds of landing a top 4 pick improve from 52.1% to 54.5%.

By the way, here is the remaining schedule for Phoenix:
PHI
ATL
@SAS
@SAS
@DEN
@OKC
@NOP
CLE
MIN
NOP
LAC
@LAC
@SAC
@MIN

That's 4 cake games then an absolutely BRUTAL final 10 games.

[Tyrone Messby]

wow that is a BRUTAL schedule for the Suns, you ain’t lying. Good unexpected loss for the Clippers last night too. Complete no show vs the Hawks at home.