The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

Love Reed Sheppard, just not for us. We need to draft upside and taking shrimp guards who don’t necessarily have a first option scorers mentality is a scary proposition. There’s no doubt in mind he has the highest floor in this draft but I don’t 100% believe he’s a starter in this league

I bet the Spurs take him if he is available.

The spurs have the luxury of taking a high floor guard to pair with their superstar big if they so choose. We are lacking high end talent and need to set our sights higher even if it’s a weak draft.

What are you basing any of this on? Who is the “high end talent” and who are the “high floor guards”? based on what?

[AFM]

He might evolve a good outside shot when he gets to the league, but it will take some work and will be easily challenged until he does. Have you seen his form? He shoots it from his face. Blockable by even the shortest player in the league. He's not using the advantage of his 6'6" height, even if seven inches of that height is all neck.

To be fair, his neck is so long that if he shoots with a conventional shooting form, it looks like he shoots it from his face.

Speaking of Topic's face - dude bears an uncanny resemblance to Joran van der Sloot.

same killer instinct too

[payitforward]

...Arguably the best player in the draft, projected in the 5-10 range. There’s been top 3 conversations about Sarr, Holland, Buzelis, Risacher, Clingan, Williams, Topic, and Castle, none about Sheppard at any point.

Good point, Nat....

OTOH, obviously, for the guy who winds up being the best player in his draft class to be picked in that 5-10 range -- or significantly further down the ranks for that matter-- happens all the time.

In fact it's rare for the best player in a draft class to be picked in the top 3.
To illustrate the point, in the 18 drafts from 2005-2022, I can think of only a very few years in which the #1 pick in the draft turned out to be the best player in his draft class.

Usually not even in the top 3 -- i.e. Steph in '09, PG in '10, Kawhi in '11, Giannis in '13, Jokic in '14, Booker in '15, etc. etc. etc.).

[payitforward]

Love Reed Sheppard, just not for us. We need to draft upside and taking shrimp guards who don’t necessarily have a first option scorers mentality is a scary proposition. There’s no doubt in mind he has the highest floor in this draft but I don’t 100% believe he’s a starter in this league

I bet the Spurs take him if he is available.

What does that have to do with who the Zards draft?

Well, if they pick before us it will affect who's still available....

OTOH, calling someone a "shrimp guard" has nothing to offer either. Nor does suggesting "we need to draft upside" -- what else would anyone draft?

Don't get me wrong -- I agree with J-Ves that there's no guarantee Sheppard is "a starter in this league." In fact there's no guarantee that anyone picked at any spot in any draft will be successful in the NBA at all! The future simply doesn't come with a guarantee of any kind.

In any case, we don't need a single "savior pick."

We have exactly 1 player on this squad whom we can maybe count on to be an above average NBA player going forward: Deni Avdija. & we have 1 kid for whom we have high hopes long term: Bilal Coulibaly.

Of course there may be a couple of surprises in the current ragtag bunch - why not? But I wouln't count on it, & the genuine information out of this season is that we are starting over. Period.

We need to come out of this draft with at least 3 promising rookies. 4 would be a lot better, but we can't come away with fewer than 3.

[pcbothwel]

I like McCain and am a little leery of Sheppard maintaining his insane efficiency at the next level. On the other hand, McCain's stats don't really show much playmaking at all and Sheppard's do, albeit with a fairly high turnover rate. If one is worried about Sheppard panning out as merely an undersized shooting guard rather than a true PG, doesn't that same concern also apply to McCain?

Much of this boils down to projection. I think smart young guys like Sheppard and McCain can learn to become true PG's even if they're not quite true PG's already. The question is, which guy has the skillset to learn the PG position better? I think McCain has a tighter handle than Sheppard, but Sheppard is really good hitting 3's off the bounce. Offensively, they're pretty similar.

Defensively, Sheppard has much better numbers, but one wonders if those steals and blocks will translate. Sheppard has a tendency to gamble and roam which boosts his steals numbers but occasionally leaves him out of position to defend his man. But that's not to say that all of his steals are due to reckless gambling. He has great hands and instincts and often gets the steal from the man he is guarding one-on-one, and he blocks a ton of shots that way as well.

Right. I think Sheppard will mature into an excellent floor general type PG. I see it as the primary area of probable growth in his game. Both in setting up teammates for assists and in leadership.

The question to me is if I believe his insane numbers will translate as a starter, on both sides of the court. He gives good effort and makes smart reads so a good coach will find a way to play him. But you're taking him because of an unprecedented efficiency in his numbers. If those can directly translate, awesome. You're not taking him because you expect him to get better than those numbers. To improve. Except maybe A/TO ratio. My guess is those numbers take a hit and do not climb again to those levels once he is facing better athletes and a scouting report that has him as your lead PG.

As for McCain, guards who rebound outsized for their position do tend to translate to good defenders at the next level. That's where you get your Kyle Lowry types. When I see a PG with 6 double digit rebounding games in a tough conference, I know I have a gamer. Yes he showed himself as a gunner on Duke, not a set-up man. He did show nice efficiency in the passes he took. Decisive and on point. I can see him developing in that direction as well. So if both players have the same areas of growth potential, which one has the tools for a higher upside? Reed is younger. McCain looks like he has a better frame for physical growth. I'll be curious to see the measurements at the combine.

If they are close, or if McCain has a chance to be better with growth, then to me the question is resource allocation. Shepp is slated top 5. McCain lower down. If you're picking 1-3 and a team makes an offer to trade up for Reed. Says 'pick Sheppard for us and we will pay you in picks,' I think you listen if you think you can get McCain lower down.

I mostly agree with this and I understand the conundrum of Sheppard...HOWEVER.

A few years ago a guard burst on the scene with ELITE efficiency, Elite IQ and great hands defensively.
The problem was, he did not play as a PURE PG/Lead Guard, he had low usage, low FTA, and while he was an elite shooter...there were questions about how it would translate to the pros where he would be more of a focal point as he struggled to create his own shot.

Now 4 years later, Tyrese Haliburton looks like a multiple AS and even a couple All-NBA appearances.
It feel like not taking Sheppard would be like passing on Haliburton.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I bet the Spurs take him if he is available.

What does that have to do with who the Zards draft?

Well, if they pick before us it will affect who's still available....

OTOH, calling someone a "shrimp guard" has nothing to offer either. Nor does suggesting "we need to draft upside" -- what else would anyone draft?

Don't get me wrong -- I agree with J-Ves that there's no guarantee Sheppard is "a starter in this league." In fact there's no guarantee that anyone picked at any spot in any draft will be successful in the NBA at all! The future simply doesn't come with a guarantee of any kind.

In any case, we don't need a single "savior pick."

We have exactly 1 player on this squad whom we can maybe count on to be an above average NBA player going forward: Deni Avdija. & we have 1 kid for whom we have high hopes long term: Bilal Coulibaly.

Of course there may be a couple of surprises in the current ragtag bunch - why not? But I wouln't count on it, & the genuine information out of this season is that we are starting over. Period.

We need to come out of this draft with at least 3 promising rookies. 4 would be a lot better, but we can't come away with fewer than 3.

IMO the BANG FOR THE BUCK portion of this draft is in the 18-33 range. If we can trade back, perhaps with the Pelicans for 18 & 21, and then move up from 51... Maybe package 51 & a future 2nd, or maybe a Tyus S&T to add another pick in that range.

IDEALLY, I'd like to come away with 4 players in this tier...

Kyshawn George
Carlton Carrington
Tidjane Salaun
Yves Missi
Kel’el Ware
DaRon Holmes II
Adem Bona
Pacome Dadiet
Hunter Sallis
Jamir Watkins
Melvin Ajinca
Ryan Dunn

Ok. For example, IMO an ideal draft would come away with
Kyshawn George
Kel’el Ware
Pacome Dadiet
Hunter Sallis

2 high upside versatile wings with length, a multi-skilled big, and an athletic guard. I am telling you, That portion of this years draft is THE SWEET SPOT!

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The only players I like at the top, that I view as true top 10 prospects are Stephon Castle and Cody Williams. So if we can only add 1 more pick in that 18-33 range and we come away with something like Castle, Missi, Salaun would I be happy? Yes! Or Cody + Holmes + Carrington. Yes I'd be very happy. But to me the objective should be to get as many picks in that 18-33 range as possible, including a 2 for 1 swap if we can trade down. I'd rather come away with Kyshawn George AND Missi or Carrington AND Ware than Castle, or Williams, or Sheppard or Topic or whoever.

One scenario I see that I like is if we get #1 or #2 and can deal it to the Jazz for #8, 29, 32. I'd love that! And wed still have our 51, maybe trade up from there, or use it on a draft and stash. But this rebuild, basically adding one or two good young building blocks isn't going to do it. We need an overhaul of young prospects with potential upside, we should be taking as many swings as possible, and coming out of this draft with at least 4 or 5 players.

[DCZards]

OTOH, obviously, for the guy who winds up being the best player in his draft class to be picked in that 5-10 range -- or significantly further down the ranks for that matter-- happens all the time.

In fact it's rare for the best player in a draft class to be picked in the top 3.

The best player in the draft is often in the top 3. It’s not rare.

2023: Victor W.
2022: Banchero or Holmgren
2020: Anthony Edwards
2019: Zion Williamson or Morant
2018: Luka Doncic? (or SGA not in top 3)
2017: Jayson Tatum
2012: Anthony Davis

[NatP4]

So much wrong with that list.

[NatP4]

08: Westbrook or Kevin Love
09: Curry
10: Paul George
11: Kawhi or Jimmy Butler
12: Lillard
13: Giannis
14: Jokic
15: Towns (top 3) (could argue Booker)
16: Sabonis/Siakam
17: Tatum (top 3) (could argue Mitchell)
18: Luka (top 3) (although ATL actually wanted Trae Young and Luka was probably going 4th before the trade)
19: Morant (top 3)
20: Haliburton

Still way too early on 21/22/23, but you can make an early argument for Sengun, Jalen Williams. Wemby seems obvious for 23.

4/13 drafts from 2008-2020 in which the best player came from the top 3 picks. That is absolutely rare.

[DCZards]

So much wrong with that list.

Yup…I was wrong about 2011 and 2014. Made the correction.

[doclinkin]

All I can say is I am glad it's Winger and Dawkins making this pick this year. It's reassuring to have a new team in place. Regardless of their eventual track record, it is nice to have more trust than dread.

[doclinkin]

He might evolve a good outside shot when he gets to the league, but it will take some work and will be easily challenged until he does. Have you seen his form? He shoots it from his face. Blockable by even the shortest player in the league. He's not using the advantage of his 6'6" height, even if seven inches of that height is all neck.

To be fair, his neck is so long that if he shoots with a conventional shooting form, it looks like he shoots it from his face.

Telling you. He was bitten by a were-goose. Radioactive swan or something.

[NatP4]

All I can say is I am glad it's Winger and Dawkins making this pick this year. It's reassuring to have a new team in place. Regardless of their eventual track record, it is nice to have more trust than dread.

I strongly believe that Dawkins was the genius behind the OKC draft success.

Think we finally hit a home run with this FO

[doclinkin]

All I can say is I am glad it's Winger and Dawkins making this pick this year. It's reassuring to have a new team in place. Regardless of their eventual track record, it is nice to have more trust than dread.

I strongly believe that Dawkins was the genius behind the OKC draft success.

Think we finally hit a home run with this FO

[nate33]

All I can say is I am glad it's Winger and Dawkins making this pick this year. It's reassuring to have a new team in place. Regardless of their eventual track record, it is nice to have more trust than dread.

I'm even more excited about them implementing an actual player development program. We've already seen some promising improvement from Avdija, Kispert, Coulibaly, Butler and Vukcevic. Even Johnny Davis looked much better at the end of the season.

[dcPress]

My bet would be on one of these fellows:

Sarr
Castle
Dillingham
Butselis

Sarr > Clingan based on his speed and coordination. Higher ceiling.

Castle > Topic based on defense alone. I’m gambling that his 3 shot comes around, but Topic seems too slow on defense and too many of his moves lack verticality. Great vision though.

Dillingham will sell tickets! But don’t expect much defense. Looks like all star material.

Butselis > Risacher based on motor and speed. Looks like a top 5 in this draft.

[closg00]

Although many deemed Fultz the best prospect in the draft, Ainge felt differently. Ainge decided to trade down with the 76ers and swap picks while also adding a future draft pick for the Boston Celtics. Why did he do this, though? Simply put, Ainge preferred Tatum over Fultz. Tatum filled a need at the wing and was objectively the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. For a team that was already contending, this was important.

https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2023/10/29/boston-celtics-trade-throwback-10-2017-pick-swap-with-76ers/


Is Sarr the Markelle Fultz of this draft? Are you tempted to skip Sarr for someone else at the top?...thinking about this trade recently..

[nate33]

Although many deemed Fultz the best prospect in the draft, Ainge felt differently. Ainge decided to trade down with the 76ers and swap picks while also adding a future draft pick for the Boston Celtics. Why did he do this, though? Simply put, Ainge preferred Tatum over Fultz. Tatum filled a need at the wing and was objectively the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. For a team that was already contending, this was important.

https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2023/10/29/boston-celtics-trade-throwback-10-2017-pick-swap-with-76ers/


Is Sarr the Markelle Fultz of this draft? Are you tempted to skip Sarr for someone else at the top?...thinking about this trade recently..

I don't see this situation as being analogous at all.

The 2024 draft is tough because there is no clear cut #1. But I don't see how you can apply the lessons from 2017 to it. Why would you equate Sarr as being equal to Fultz in the analogy? Maybe Sarr is Tatum.

But the real difference from the 2017 draft is that since there is so little separation among the top prospects, I don't see anybody landing a future lotto pick just to trade down from #1 to #3. If we could land a 2025 lotto pick to move down 2 spots, I would absolutely do it.

[closg00]

Although many deemed Fultz the best prospect in the draft, Ainge felt differently. Ainge decided to trade down with the 76ers and swap picks while also adding a future draft pick for the Boston Celtics. Why did he do this, though? Simply put, Ainge preferred Tatum over Fultz. Tatum filled a need at the wing and was objectively the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. For a team that was already contending, this was important.

https://lastwordonsports.com/basketball/2023/10/29/boston-celtics-trade-throwback-10-2017-pick-swap-with-76ers/


Is Sarr the Markelle Fultz of this draft? Are you tempted to skip Sarr for someone else at the top?...thinking about this trade recently..

I don't see this situation as being analogous at all.

The 2024 draft is tough because there is no clear cut #1. But I don't see how you can apply the lessons from 2017 to it. Why would you equate Sarr as being equal to Fultz in the analogy? Maybe Sarr is Tatum.

But the real difference from the 2017 draft is that since there is so little separation among the top prospects, I don't see anybody landing a future lotto pick just to trade down from #1 to #3. If we could land a 2025 lotto pick to move down 2 spots, I would absolutely do it.

Not equating, just wondering peoples/GM's confidence level in Sarr, and if we might see a trade-down....

[DCZards]

Not equating, just wondering peoples/GM's confidence level in Sarr, and if we might see a trade-down....

Their personal interviews with him and his work ethic will have a lot to do with GM’s confidence in Sarr. He certainly has the size, length and physical skills to be an outstanding NBA player.

Right now Sarr looks to me like he should be the top pick.