The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[9 and 20]

Case closed. Kuz>Tatum. -Terd

[tontoz]

"We can't guard a stop sign," Kuzma said. "That's kind of really what it boils down to. We let anybody get whatever they want on us. So, until we change that, then that's probably going to be the result."

The Wizards have the NBA's 30th ranked defense, with a 120.6 defensive rating. They are just behind the Charlotte Hornets, who have a defensive rating of 120.3.

[closg00]

"We can't guard a stop sign," Kuzma said. "That's kind of really what it boils down to. We let anybody get whatever they want on us. So, until we change that, then that's probably going to be the result."

The Wizards have the NBA's 30th ranked defense, with a 120.6 defensive rating. They are just behind the Charlotte Hornets, who have a defensive rating of 120.3.

True, but has Wes shaken-up the rotations in any way? Wes hasn't changed anything and sticks to his rotations

[nate33]

"We can't guard a stop sign," Kuzma said. "That's kind of really what it boils down to. We let anybody get whatever they want on us. So, until we change that, then that's probably going to be the result."

The Wizards have the NBA's 30th ranked defense, with a 120.6 defensive rating. They are just behind the Charlotte Hornets, who have a defensive rating of 120.3.

True, but has Wes shaken-up the rotations in any way? Wes hasn't changed anything and sticks to his rotations

We all know the proper thing to do here is start Shamet or Coulibaly in place of Poole. The issue is, Wes' instinct has always been to manage player confidence, and doesn't want to destroy Poole's.

I'd start Shamet. (I don't think Coulibaly is ready for the spotlight of a starting position and is better off playing 20 minutes a night off the bench.)

[bubba hotep]

PIF, I've got to ask. Are you still taking Brandon Clarke over Kuzma?

[payitforward]

PIF, I've got to ask. Are you still taking Brandon Clarke over Kuzma?

??
Kyle Kuzma was the 27th pick in the 2017 draft.

Guys who went before him included: Josh Jackson (4), Frank Ntilikina (8), Dennis Smith Jr. (9), Justin Jackson (15), Justin Patton (16), D.J. Wilson (17), T.J. Leaf (18), Harry Giles (20), Terrance Ferguson (21), Tyler Lydon (24), Anžejs Pasečņiks (25), & Caleb Swanigan (26). One or two of those dozen guys may still be hanging on by a thread, but most of them didn't make it. So I think we can agree that Kuz was a high value pick!

Now... Derrick White went at 29 that year, & Josh Hart went at 30 -- they've both been better than Kuz. Still, Kuz was high value! (Btw, probably the biggest overall bargain of that draft was Kuz's buddy Monte Morris at 51)

Brandon Clarke was the 21st pick in 2019. Of the 17 guys taken 4-20, 12 are either out of the league or have been quite disappointing overall, 3 (Darius Garland, Cameron Johnson, & Matisse Thybulle) have been good in different ways, 1 (Tyler Herro) is overpaid for shooting a lot, & 1 (Chuma Okeke) has been mediocre.

Brandon Clarke tore an Achilles tendon last March & isn't playing. In his first 4 years, he was extremely good. Hugely better than almost all the 17 guys referenced above.

But that's not what you want to know, is it? You want to know who's better -- Kuz or Clarke. Right? Or who I think is better.

But, really, even that isn't exactly your point, right? You want Kuz to be better! C'mon... tell the truth! That's really what you want, isn't it?

Why don't I let you decide? Here are the per 40 minutes numbers for the 2 guys in 19-20. I'm going to leave out rebounding, because it'll give away who is who (b/c Clarke is a much stronger rebounder than Kuz):

2019-20
A:
20.5 points
2.1 assists
2.4 turnovers
.65 blocks
.75 steals
3.3 fouls

B:
21.5 points
2.5 assists
1.7 turnovers
1.5 blocks
1 steal
3.1 fouls

Notice that I also left out TS%, which obviously affects the meaning of the two guys' scoring.
Again, I did it b/c I thought that might give away their identities.

So... just based on what's there: who put up the better numbers? Was it A? Or was it B?

[payitforward]

How about in 2021-22
A:
21.5 points
2.75 assists
1.1 turnovers
2.15 blocks
1.25 steals
3.6 fouls

B:
20.5 points
4.25 assists
3.1 turnovers
1 blocks
.75 steals
2.3 fouls

Once again, I left out rebounding & TS%.

Ok, then... who's got the better numbers just using the data you have? A? or B?

[DCZards]

Context matters.

Clarke is a bench player who has averaged a little over 20 mins a game for his career, usually against other bench players.

Kuzma is a starter who averages more than 30 mins a game and for the past 3 years has been either his team’s first, second, or third offensive option.

Can’t ignore those things when comparing numbers.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

/photo/1

[Kanyewest]

Clarke unfortunately is going to lose by default because of his Achilles injury.

Might have lost anyways from a real debate anyways but we'll never really know.

[payitforward]

First off: I don't have any special interest in the NBA player Brandon Clarke. I don't follow his games. I don't follow him.
Hence, I had no idea that he'd torn his Achilles. I had no idea that he was out. Not playing this season.

I also never bring him up on the board. I didn't in this case, & I haven't for years. Sometimes his name gets a mention when I'm talking about the ways Tommy bollixed up his 4 drafts as the Wizards' GM. Hard to avoid in those instances.

Of course, I was interested in him as a draft pick -- for obvious reasons, since we made the utterly brain-dead decision to go, as Tommy said at the time, "all in on Rui Hachimura." What makes that interest especially obvious is that the two guys were teammates in college! & that Clarke was the better player -- by far, hugely, it wasn't even close -- the two guys' last year at Gonzaga. In fact, that year Clarke put up some of the best per-40-minute numbers of any college player I've ever seen. Zion was even better, but no one else was even close -- certainly not Rui.

OTOH, I am extremely interested in Kyle Kuzma: he is a Wizard, & I'm a Wizards fan. Moreover, he is an extremely interesting guy! He's generous -- gives back & pays forward. He's smart, self-aware, & thoughtful. He seems like a great teammate. By every indication he's a high-quality person.

Kuz has gotten off to a better start this season than in some time, which is great.

...Clarke is a bench player who has averaged a little over 20 mins a game for his career, usually against other bench players.

Kuzma is a starter who averages more than 30 mins a game and for the past 3 years has been either his team’s first, second, or third offensive option.

Can’t ignore those things when comparing numbers.

Of course not. & that's why I started out with a comparison of the two in '19-20.

Brandon Clarke was a rookie that year, while Kuz was in his 3d year in the league. But they were both bench players.

Now... both guys did start a few games, presumably b/c some circumstance required it. But, mostly, their minutes were, as you say, "against other bench players."

But, more importantly, just how much of a discount are you taking based on this issue? Neither of these guys was playing garbage time. & what data actually supports that discount?

After all, that year Clarke got 33% more defensive boards than Kuz. He got 260% as many offensive boards a Kuz. He had 20% more assists. Meanwhile Kuz committed 45% more turnovers, while Clarke had 33% more steals.

Oh, & Clarke also scored % more points -- not to mention that his TS% was .663, while Kuz's was .531.

Both guys off the bench. Really not a lot to point to in Kuz's favor in that comparison....

[nate33]

I just did a deep dive on Kuzma's shooting and came across a few interesting tidbits.

Kuzma is actually an outstanding 3-point shooter from the corners, and he is terrible from above the break. Sadly, he attempts a lot more shots from above the break. Presumably, much of this is because of the personnel on the roster. Kuzma is needed to run a lot of offensive actions so he doesn't have the luxury of hanging around the corners and waiting for catch-and-shoot opportunities. But the point is, the numbers suggest he could be really effective as a lower usage 3rd/4th option player on a good team.

Among the 94 players who have attempted at least 40 corner 3's, Kuzma ranks 29th in percentage, shooting a whopping 44.8%. And most of the guys ahead of him are guards and undersized forwards. Among guys who can legitimately defend the 4, only 7 players are shooting better from the corners (Batum, PG, Jaden McDaniels, Cam Johnson, Siakam, Markkanen and MPJ). So if you need a guy to stretch the floor from the 4 position, there are few better than Kuzma.



The problem's with Kuzma's efficiency is that he is taking far too many above-the-break 3's. Of the 97 players who have attempted 130 or more above-the-break 3-pointers, Kuzma ranks 90th in percentage, shooting an abysmal 31.3%. Only Vucevic, Randle, Dinwiddie, Wemby, Wagner, Lopez and Poole are worse. But what's infuriating is that he ranks 26th in above-the-break attempts, shooting 217 times from that range! The only guy who shoots more than him at a worse percentage is Jordan Poole LOL. 20 out of the 25 guys who shoot more than him do so at a percentage of at least 36% or better - they SHOULD be taking those shots.



The point is, if Kuzma got to play on a team like the Dallas Maverick, and was able to shoot more corner-threes than above-the-break 3's, he'd post a 3P% in the 38-40 range and his TS% would be significantly better. It's also worth noting that he is a 41.7% 3-point shooter (on 96 attempts) on wide open looks (nearest defender 6+ feet) and it plummets to 31.8% when there is a defender within 4-6 feet (on 151 attempts). Again, if he had the luxury of being more judicious in his shot attempts, I think the numbers show that he would be a MUCH more efficient player.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I just did a deep dive on Kuzma's shooting and came across a few interesting tidbits.

Kuzma is actually an outstanding 3-point shooter from the corners, and he is terrible from above the break. Sadly, he attempts a lot more shots from above the break. Presumably, much of this is because of the personnel on the roster. Kuzma is needed to run a lot of offensive actions so he doesn't have the luxury of hanging around the corners and waiting for catch-and-shoot opportunities. But the point is, the numbers suggest he could be really effective as a lower usage 3rd/4th option player on a good team.

Among the 94 players who have attempted at least 40 corner 3's, Kuzma ranks 29th in percentage, shooting a whopping 44.8%. And most of the guys ahead of him are guards and undersized forwards. Among guys who can legitimately defend the 4, only 7 players are shooting better from the corners (Batum, PG, Jaden McDaniels, Cam Johnson, Siakam, Markkanen and MPJ). So if you need a guy to stretch the floor from the 4 position, there are few better than Kuzma.



The problem's with Kuzma's efficiency is that he is taking far too many above-the-break 3's. Of the 97 players who have attempted 130 or more above-the-break 3-pointers, Kuzma ranks 90th in percentage, shooting an abysmal 31.3%. Only Vucevic, Randle, Dinwiddie, Wemby, Wagner, Lopez and Poole are worse. But what's infuriating is that he ranks 26th in above-the-break attempts, shooting 217 times from that range! The only guy who shoots more than him at a worse percentage is Jordan Poole LOL. 20 out of the 25 guys who shoot more than him do so at a percentage of at least 36% or better - they SHOULD be taking those shots.



The point is, if Kuzma got to play on a team like the Dallas Maverick, and was able to shoot more corner-threes than above-the-break 3's, he'd post a 3P% in the 38-40 range and his TS% would be significantly better. It's also worth noting that he is a 41.7% 3-point shooter (on 96 attempts) on wide open looks (nearest defender 6+ feet) and it plummets to 31.8% when there is a defender within 4-6 feet (on 151 attempts). Again, if he had the luxury of being more judicious in his shot attempts, I think the numbers show that he would be a MUCH more efficient player.

After last night's game he's at the second lowest TS% of his career. He needs a major mental adjustment anywhere he goes.

[nate33]

Some interesting stuff from Josh Robbins at the Athletic about the Kuzma trade talks with Dallas:

When Wizards chief decision-maker Michael Winger informed Kuzma that the general framework of a trade was in place to send Kuzma to the Mavericks — a potential deal that Winger felt only lukewarm about — Kuzma told Winger he wanted to remain with the Wizards.

“There was a point in time, Dallas, they definitely did want me,” Kuzma told The Athletic on Monday, before the Wizards played the Mavericks at American Airlines Center. “Winger presented me with what the trade was and obviously didn’t want to trade me and kind of left the decision up to me a little bit and asked me what I wanted to do. I told him I wanted to stay and continue to build something. And that was kind of the end of it.”

Winger called the Mavericks back and said the deal was off the table.

If that level of transparency between team officials and a player ahead of a trade deadline sounds a bit unusual — well, it is unusual.

Kuzma does not have a no-trade clause built into the four-year, $90 million guaranteed contract that he and the Wizards agreed to last summer. But Kuzma committed to re-signing with Washington after team officials traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis; those trades set in motion a rebuild that almost certainly will take years to complete. Winger pledged to Kuzma and Kuzma’s agent, Austin Brown, that, unless the Wizards’ received a trade offer in the future for Kuzma that was too good to refuse, he would listen to Kuzma’s input about potential trades.

The potential trade with Dallas was one of those instances — a potential trade that, from the Wizards’ perspective, was fair but not a home run.

I really like the approach management has with it's key players. Winger told Kuzma that he would only trade him with Kuzma's consent, but also left the door open to trade him without his consent if the offer was too good to refuse. That seems like a fair and honest way of dealing with the players without jeopardizing the future development of the team.

[Rafael122]

Some interesting stuff from Josh Robbins at the Athletic about the Kuzma trade talks with Dallas:

When Wizards chief decision-maker Michael Winger informed Kuzma that the general framework of a trade was in place to send Kuzma to the Mavericks — a potential deal that Winger felt only lukewarm about — Kuzma told Winger he wanted to remain with the Wizards.

“There was a point in time, Dallas, they definitely did want me,” Kuzma told The Athletic on Monday, before the Wizards played the Mavericks at American Airlines Center. “Winger presented me with what the trade was and obviously didn’t want to trade me and kind of left the decision up to me a little bit and asked me what I wanted to do. I told him I wanted to stay and continue to build something. And that was kind of the end of it.”

Winger called the Mavericks back and said the deal was off the table.

If that level of transparency between team officials and a player ahead of a trade deadline sounds a bit unusual — well, it is unusual.

Kuzma does not have a no-trade clause built into the four-year, $90 million guaranteed contract that he and the Wizards agreed to last summer. But Kuzma committed to re-signing with Washington after team officials traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis; those trades set in motion a rebuild that almost certainly will take years to complete. Winger pledged to Kuzma and Kuzma’s agent, Austin Brown, that, unless the Wizards’ received a trade offer in the future for Kuzma that was too good to refuse, he would listen to Kuzma’s input about potential trades.

The potential trade with Dallas was one of those instances — a potential trade that, from the Wizards’ perspective, was fair but not a home run.

I really like the approach management has with it's key players. Winger told Kuzma that he would only trade him with Kuzma's consent, but also left the door open to trade him without his consent if the offer was too good to refuse. That seems like a fair and honest way of dealing with the players without jeopardizing the future development of the team.

I'm curious what the offer would have been. My guess is it would have been Williams and Holmes plus a future first.

[Frichuela]

Kyle Kuzma aka efficiency be damned..

I have been vocal on my wish to trade him but I guess we have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that this FO sees Kuzma as a key cog here for the foreseeable future...while I am convinced Turd also pushes for Kyle to stay due to his perceived "marketability"...

[nate33]

Kyle Kuzma aka efficiency be damned..

I have been vocal on my wish to trade him but I guess we have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that this FO sees Kuzma as a key cog here for the foreseeable future...while I am convinced Turd also pushes for Kyle to stay due to his perceived "marketability"...

I think Kuzma will be moved when it makes sense to move him. Ideally, it will be after we've acquired a guy capable of taking on significant usage, and ideally, it will be in exchange for two FRP's.

Moving him right now for a single, not-so-good future pick from Dallas and Grant Williams' lousy contract doesn't strike me as a great idea.

[Frichuela]

Kyle Kuzma aka efficiency be damned..

I have been vocal on my wish to trade him but I guess we have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that this FO sees Kuzma as a key cog here for the foreseeable future...while I am convinced Turd also pushes for Kyle to stay due to his perceived "marketability"...

I think Kuzma will be moved when it makes sense to move him. Ideally, it will be after we've acquired a guy capable of taking on significant usage, and ideally, it will be in exchange for two FRP's.

Moving him right now for a single, not-so-good future pick from Dallas and Grant Williams' lousy contract doesn't strike me as a great idea.

Yes. That may be the plan. However, there is always the bird in hand argument...injuries can happen...

I think is likely they'll be better offers by the draft/off-season and in that case I hope this FO accepts and we move on from Kuz...

[penbeast0]

I just did a deep dive on Kuzma's shooting and came across a few interesting tidbits.

Kuzma is actually an outstanding 3-point shooter from the corners, and he is terrible from above the break. Sadly, he attempts a lot more shots from above the break. Presumably, much of this is because of the personnel on the roster. Kuzma is needed to run a lot of offensive actions so he doesn't have the luxury of hanging around the corners and waiting for catch-and-shoot opportunities. But the point is, the numbers suggest he could be really effective as a lower usage 3rd/4th option player on a good team.

Among the 94 players who have attempted at least 40 corner 3's, Kuzma ranks 29th in percentage, shooting a whopping 44.8%. And most of the guys ahead of him are guards and undersized forwards. Among guys who can legitimately defend the 4, only 7 players are shooting better from the corners (Batum, PG, Jaden McDaniels, Cam Johnson, Siakam, Markkanen and MPJ). So if you need a guy to stretch the floor from the 4 position, there are few better than Kuzma.



The problem's with Kuzma's efficiency is that he is taking far too many above-the-break 3's. Of the 97 players who have attempted 130 or more above-the-break 3-pointers, Kuzma ranks 90th in percentage, shooting an abysmal 31.3%. Only Vucevic, Randle, Dinwiddie, Wemby, Wagner, Lopez and Poole are worse. But what's infuriating is that he ranks 26th in above-the-break attempts, shooting 217 times from that range! The only guy who shoots more than him at a worse percentage is Jordan Poole LOL. 20 out of the 25 guys who shoot more than him do so at a percentage of at least 36% or better - they SHOULD be taking those shots.



The point is, if Kuzma got to play on a team like the Dallas Maverick, and was able to shoot more corner-threes than above-the-break 3's, he'd post a 3P% in the 38-40 range and his TS% would be significantly better. It's also worth noting that he is a 41.7% 3-point shooter (on 96 attempts) on wide open looks (nearest defender 6+ feet) and it plummets to 31.8% when there is a defender within 4-6 feet (on 151 attempts). Again, if he had the luxury of being more judicious in his shot attempts, I think the numbers show that he would be a MUCH more efficient player.

The problem with this is that Kuzma's convinced that's a good shot for himself. Smart players know what they can do and work on improving their skills. I don't know if Kuzma can focus on improving his skills when he doesn't recognize what he does well and what he does poorly out on the floor. Hopefully the coaching staff can try to force feed this information past his ego.

[tontoz]

No need to do a deep dive on Kuz. It is obvious that his problem is shot selection. The question is whether or not he is capable of changing it. I have my doubts. Sometimes guys just are who they are.