Wizards Future Picks (incoming & outgoing)

[mhd]

Bumped, to reflect to Bagley trade

[doclinkin]

My brain turns to poached egg trying to follow our 2nd rounders. For 2025 I think we lost this 2nd round pick in the Dinwiddie deal? Then somehow it hopscotched to Detroit. So this trade means we get the worse of: Our 2025 pick or Detroit. Because GSW will automatically be better than us. Nuh?

Okay so chronologically our picks are probably (?):

2024
1st round:
Our pick (top 12 protected). Plus PHX's lotto combos, if any (nope).

2nd round:
PHX.
(Lost ours).

2025
1st round:
Own pick (if top 10).

2nd round:
The worse of ours or Detroit. (or GSW but they will be better than us).
PHX.

2026
1st round:
Ours (if top 8 in lotto, giving our 2nd rounder to the Knicks), plus PHX lotto combos, if any.

2nd round:
Bulls.
Worse of: MIN/NYK (whichever pick is better) vs NO/POR (whichever is better). So probably either a pick swap with the Knicks, or we pick up the Wolves pick, but lose ours to the Knicks.
PHX.

2027
1st round: Ours.

2nd round:
Pistons.
PHX.
GSW.
Bulls.
(Probably lost our pick to the Knicks the year before).

2028
1st round: Ours, or the worse of Brooklyn/PHX pick.
2nd round: None?

2029
1st round: Ours.
2nd round:
Ours.
Lakers


2030
1st round:
Ours or the PHX lotto combos.
GSW (if 21-30)

2nd round:
Ours
PHX

No?

[mhd]

My brain turns to poached egg trying to follow our 2nd rounders. For 2025 I think we lost this 2nd round pick in the Dinwiddie deal? Then somehow it hopscotched to Detroit. So this trade means we get the worse of: Our 2025 pick or Detroit. Because GSW will automatically be better than us. Nuh?

Okay so chronologically our picks are probably (?):

2024
1st round:
Our pick (top 12 protected). Plus PHX's lotto combos, if any (nope).

2nd round:
PHX.
(Lost ours).

2025
1st round:
Own pick (if top 10).

2nd round:
The worse of ours or Detroit. (or GSW but they will be better than us).
PHX.

2026
1st round:
Ours (if top 8 in lotto, giving our 2nd rounder to the Knicks), plus PHX lotto combos, if any.

2nd round:
Bulls.
Worse of: MIN/NYK (whichever pick is better) vs NO/POR (whichever is better). So probably either a pick swap with the Knicks, or we pick up the Wolves pick, but lose ours to the Knicks.
PHX.

2027
1st round: Ours.

2nd round:
Pistons.
PHX.
GSW.
Bulls.
(Probably lost our pick to the Knicks the year before).

2028
1st round: Ours, or the worse of Brooklyn/PHX pick.
2nd round: None?

2029
1st round: Ours.
2nd round:
Ours.
Lakers


2030
1st round:
Ours or the PHX lotto combos.
GSW (if 21-30)

2nd round:
Ours
PHX

No?

Pretty much regarding the 2025 2nd. From what I gather, before the Bagley trade, we were getting the lesser of the 2025 2nd and GSW 2nd. After it, we get the lesser of (Detroit 2025 2nd and (more favorable of Wiz 2025 2nd and GSW 2025 2nd). So, instead of the likely 2025 2nd being GSW, now it will likely be the 2025 Det 2nd instead.

[payitforward]

In the 2020 draft, didn't we trade the #37 (which we had from the Bulls) to OKC in return for the #53 (used on Cassius Winston) plus a R2 pick in 2024?

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

2027 is shaping up to be PIF’s dream. Maybe we can trade Jones, Gafford, Kuz and a first and accumulate 6 or so more seconds that year. We’d have like a 1 in 3 chance of drafting the next 2nd round steal.

[doclinkin]

2027 is shaping up to be PIF’s dream. Maybe we can trade Jones, Gafford, Kuz and a first and accumulate 6 or so more seconds that year. We’d have like a 1 in 3 chance of drafting the next 2nd round steal.

Ha!

Though this front office crew sold two 2028 2nd rd picks to move up one spot for Bilal. Collect and spend.

[AFM]

That’s what they’re there for doc.

In other news, wiretap says Wiz are asking for 2 first rounders for Kuz and no ones biting. Sounds about accurate. I can’t imagine what team would trade two firsts for Kuz for him to be their, what, 4th option?

[pcbothwel]

That’s what they’re there for doc.

In other news, wiretap says Wiz are asking for 2 first rounders for Kuz and no ones biting. Sounds about accurate. I can’t imagine what team would trade two firsts for Kuz for him to be their, what, 4th option?

I dont think its about no one biting. I think the phrasing of the ask/value is trash. "Two First Round picks" from the Celtics, OKC, Denver, etc. mean nothing. The 28-30th pick in the 2024 & 2026 draft are less valuable one 1st from a team in the 20-23 range.
Something like Fournier and the better of the NKY/DAL 1st for example.

[doclinkin]

That’s what they’re there for doc.

In other news, wiretap says Wiz are asking for 2 first rounders for Kuz and no ones biting. Sounds about accurate. I can’t imagine what team would trade two firsts for Kuz for him to be their, what, 4th option?

Front office sources also leaked to Aldridge that that narrative is a little overblown. There's some flexibility there. The story is they like Kuz and his contract is a good value, and he is young enough to help on the timeline, and well liked by the team. So while they will listen on trades, they won't give him away cheaply. But if there's a godfather offer of course they will have a conversation.

[Rafael122]

Phoenix had to forfeit a 2nd round pick, and I still haven't found if that's the pick that was suppose to go to us in this year's draft?

[payitforward]

...The 28-30th pick in the 2024 & 2026 draft are less valuable one 1st from a team in the 20-23 range.
Something like Fournier and the better of the NKY/DAL 1st for example.

You mean that 2 of the 3 picks from #28-#30 together are less valuable than the one of #20-23 pick alone? I.e. b/c the value drops so quickly?

You sure about that?

Because it just isn't true --
2011: 20-23 -- Motiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic
Off the top of your head, do you recall who went at #29 that year? & who went at #30?

2018 -- would you rather have the guys who went #6, 7, 9, 13, 16, 22, -- or would you prefer the guy who went 34? Or 36? Or ? Or ? Or undrafted (Kenrich Williams -- whom you may never heard of but who has played over 7000 productive minutes in 6 years including over 4200 for OKC, a team that knows what it's doing)?

It's the same pretty much every year.

2019: Would you rather have one of the guys who went from 14 to 19? Or would you rather have the guy who went at 36 -- Cody Martin? Or his twin brother Caleb who went undrafted & is a premier role player in the league?

James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Killian Hayes, or Jalen Smith -- would you like to have any of those top 10 picks from 2020? Or maybe you'd rather have Desmond Bane? He went at 30. Or Tyrese Maxey (21), or Immanuel Quickley (25), or Xavier Tillmann, or Nick Richards, or Tre Jones, or Isaiah Joe, or KMart Jr. -- or Sam Merrill, who's shooting 43% on 3-pointers for Cleveland & producing a 63% TS% at guard! He was the 60th pick of that draft.

Even the first 3 picks in the draft aren't guaranteed to succeed in the NBA. About 1/3 of them have failed to pan out over the last 20-plus drafts.

[payitforward]

2027 is shaping up to be PIF’s dream. Maybe we can trade Jones, Gafford, Kuz and a first and accumulate 6 or so more seconds that year. We’d have like a 1 in 3 chance of drafting the next 2nd round steal.

Ha!

Though this front office crew sold two 2028 2nd rd picks to move up one spot for Bilal. Collect and spend.

My goal is to wind up with all of the picks in R2 one year. They're never going to get there with moves like the above!

Meanwhile, doc, the truth is that you like R2 picks every bit as much as I do! & lower picks in general (i.e. trading down for multiples).

Here's my list of the eight best players in the league right now (who've played 1000+ minutes in the season so far) -- in no particular order: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexader, Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, Jimmy Butler, & Kawhi Leonard. Average pick position = 15.5.

Expand it to the 25 best, & the average pick position won't rise.

Just the way it is....

[doclinkin]

Meanwhile, doc, the truth is that you like R2 picks every bit as much as I do! & lower picks in general (i.e. trading down for multiples).

I do and I also do not I'm contrary.

You know my arguments. I think you can get great value with late picks. And the more picks you have, the more chances. With expanded rosters your chances are even better.

BUT you can only play 5 guys at a time, so developmental minutes for rookies and young pups are limited. AND Stats seem to suggest you have a higher hit rate of all-stars towards the top.

SO yeah, either draft way at the top in the right year, or get every single draft pick lower down.

Honestly I am just happy we seem to have a competent front office and I'm breathing deep the new car smell where they have not yet accumulated a history of mistakes so I can enjoy the illusion that we will have nothing but successes from here on out on the draft front.

Doesn't mean I won't still look for late bargains and overlooked talent. My personal hit rate on guys would have assembled a damn good team, but one that still missed on Giannis, Jokic, Devin Booker, DeAaron Fox, SGA, and others. I'm better on 2nd rounders and guys with stats than I am on potential and upside. So, yeah, I could assemble a winning team out of 2nd round picks, but my squad would get beat by the incandescent talents at the top end of the draft, I think. So. I'll let the talent whisperers make the choices among the prodigies, while I point out the guys who are obviously being overlooked who will clearly show later they know how to play in the league.

[pcbothwel]

...The 28-30th pick in the 2024 & 2026 draft are less valuable one 1st from a team in the 20-23 range.
Something like Fournier and the better of the NKY/DAL 1st for example.

You mean that 2 of the 3 picks from #28-#30 together are less valuable than the one of #20-23 pick alone? I.e. b/c the value drops so quickly?

You sure about that?

Because it just isn't true --
2011: 20-23 -- Motiejunas, Nolan Smith, Kenneth Faried, Nikola Mirotic
Off the top of your head, do you recall who went at #29 that year? & who went at #30?

2018 -- would you rather have the guys who went #6, 7, 9, 13, 16, 22, -- or would you prefer the guy who went 34? Or 36? Or ? Or ? Or undrafted (Kenrich Williams -- whom you may never heard of but who has played over 7000 productive minutes in 6 years including over 4200 for OKC, a team that knows what it's doing)?

It's the same pretty much every year.

2019: Would you rather have one of the guys who went from 14 to 19? Or would you rather have the guy who went at 36 -- Cody Martin? Or his twin brother Caleb who went undrafted & is a premier role player in the league?

James Wiseman, Patrick Williams, Killian Hayes, or Jalen Smith -- would you like to have any of those top 10 picks from 2020? Or maybe you'd rather have Desmond Bane? He went at 30. Or Tyrese Maxey (21), or Immanuel Quickley (25), or Xavier Tillmann, or Nick Richards, or Tre Jones, or Isaiah Joe, or KMart Jr. -- or Sam Merrill, who's shooting 43% on 3-pointers for Cleveland & producing a 63% TS% at guard! He was the 60th pick of that draft.

Even the first 3 picks in the draft aren't guaranteed to succeed in the NBA. About 1/3 of them have failed to pan out over the last 20-plus drafts.

PIF. With all do respect, please stop posting this type of analysis anytime someone brings up the draft.
If someone wants to argue where in the draft the best players are found and how to acquire them… fine, have at it.
My post was to point out TRADE VALUE.

Point being, if we trade Kuz for filler and the 22nd pick, that would be equivalent to getting say… the 28th pick this year and a pick in the 25-30 range in 2026-2027.
So “Two 1st” is somewhat ambiguous when talking trade value.

[payitforward]

Aah -- I misunderstood your point.

To my knowledge, Kevin Pelton has made the only systematic attempt to gauge pick position vs. trade value -- http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2 -- tho there may be others I'm not aware of. Pelton assigns numeric values to the pick positions, & using his valuations the #20 pick is almost exactly as valuable as the #29 & #30 pick combined.

Naturally, this doesn't translate into the truth in every draft; no one would be foolish enough to make such a claim! But, it's a starting point.

His valuations make your idea (of #20 being worth the same as #28-30 combined) seem a little bit enthusiastic. But, so what... that's not your main point, is it?

As you say, saying we can get "2 R1 picks" for Kuz or anyone doesn't communicate much real information without clarity as to which picks in what drafts: $1 today is worth more than $1 I'll get in 3 years!

[RinseRepeat]

That’s what they’re there for doc.

In other news, wiretap says Wiz are asking for 2 first rounders for Kuz and no ones biting. Sounds about accurate. I can’t imagine what team would trade two firsts for Kuz for him to be their, what, 4th option?

I dont think its about no one biting. I think the phrasing of the ask/value is trash. "Two First Round picks" from the Celtics, OKC, Denver, etc. mean nothing. The 28-30th pick in the 2024 & 2026 draft are less valuable one 1st from a team in the 20-23 range.
Something like Fournier and the better of the NKY/DAL 1st for example.

also, the demands are likely not as egregious. Asking for two firsts could be asking for one first and a very likely to become a 2nd unless insanely outlandish conditions are met. I have no doubt that Kuzma could get us a first rounder plus (either a conditional 1st or second plus returning young player and salary ballast)

[mhd]

UPDATED to Reflect the Gafford Trade:

PICKS OWED:
1). 2024 1st rounder to New York (top 12 protected in 2024, top 10 protected in 2025, top 8 protected in 2026). If not conveyed by 2026, Wizards owe 2026 2nd & 2027 2nd to Knicks.
2). Wizards 2024 2nd (either to Utah or Minnesota)
3). Wizards 2028 2nd (Wizards get less favorable 2nd round pick amongst their own and LAL 2nd rounder) (See below)
4). Phoenix 2028 2nd (to Indiana) and 2028 Wizards/LAL 2nd (to Indiana) (Bilal trade up & Rui trade)

PICKS INCOMING
1). Suns 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030 2nd rounders (Beal trade)
2). Right to swap 1st rounders with Phoenix in 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030. Note for 2028, Brooklyn has first swap rights. (Beal trade)
3). GSW 2027 2nd rounder (CP3 trade)
4). GSW 2030 1st (top 20 protected) (CP3 trade)
5). Bulls 2026 2nd (2023 draft night trade)
6). Bulls 2027 2nd (2023 draft night trade)
7). Pistons 2027 2nd (Monte Morris trade)
8). 2029 LAL 2nd (Rui trade)
9). 2025 Less Favorable of EITHER: ((A). More Favorable of 2025 Wiz 2nd or GSW 2nd) OR B). Detroit 2025 2nd) (Bagley Trade)
10). 2026 Less Favorable of EITHER: ((A). More Favorable of 2026 Min 2nd or NYK 2nd) OR B). More Favorable of NO 2026 2nd & Por 2026 2nd) (Bagley Trade)
11). More favorable of 2024 LAC & OKC 1st round pick (Gafford Trade)

[doclinkin]

LOL I always want to see this year-by-year, since I don't really care where the picks came from so much as what we are getting and when. But today I am too lazy to re-shuffle it.