Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[penbeast0]

Anyone have Poole's starting/reserve splits so far?

[nate33]

Anyone have Poole's starting/reserve splits so far?

These reserve stats are what I was expecting to see from Poole when we traded for him: high volume scoring on so-so efficiency, but with enough terrible defense to post a lousy on/off differential.

If he played like this consistently, he might fool somebody into trading for him to fill a need for a bench scorer.

[doclinkin]

The fact that Kispert started and played well is a good thing. It may be harder for Keefe to remove him from the starting line-up even when Marvin and Holmes are healthy and Kuz shifts back to 4. I like Bilal playing next to Tyus though, since having a real PG keeps young players on the same page (ie. playing professional team basketball, not AAU summer ball). Still, given that some of us were clamoring at the beginning of the year for Poole to start as a 6th man and Kispert to play guard, it would be nice to see the experiment get some run while we play out the rest of the year. Kispert even showed a little bit of a handle. Bodes well for him if he can transition to that swing position. We have a few players who can slide between 3/4, but having options at the 2/3 gives added flexibility.

[closg00]

I was hoping to get a good look at all of the G-League and Two-way guys, but with a two win streak going, coach will probably stick to a tight rotation as he tries to prove his worth as a coach.

[nate33]

The fact that Kispert started and played well is a good thing. It may be harder for Keefe to remove him from the starting line-up even when Marvin and Holmes are healthy and Kuz shifts back to 4. I like Bilal playing next to Tyus though, since having a real PG keeps young players on the same page (ie. playing professional team basketball, not AAU summer ball). Still, given that some of us were clamoring at the beginning of the year for Poole to start as a 6th man and Kispert to play guard, it would be nice to see the experiment get some run while we play out the rest of the year. Kispert even showed a little bit of a handle. Bodes well for him if he can transition to that swing position. We have a few players who can slide between 3/4, but having options at the 2/3 gives added flexibility.

It is really frustrating that this hasn't happened yet. It makes so much sense. Kispert is an off ball player. He is exceptional offensively at most things except on-ball creation. Fortunately, the other three non-centers in our starting lineup are all above-average for their position at on-ball creation so Kispert is the perfect fit to complement them. Kispert has also become quite a bit better defensively. His on-ball defense still suffers because of his lack of length and strength, but his rotations are good and he is usually there to tag a roll man or close out on a shooter when the scheme calls for it.

[2Fluffy4U]

How about we trade for Jokic.
A lineup of Tyus/Bilal/Kispert/Deni/Jokic should be fun to watch.. can we make it happen?
(Its nice to dream from time to time)..

[NatP4]

More Jared Butler please

[2Fluffy4U]

Fun Fact: With the 14th win of the season, the Wizards are also holding the longest winning streak in the EAST. (W3).

[gambitx777]

Obviously we need to shut TV down for the year lol. We can afford a winning streak lol.

Kid looks so solid!

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[NatP4]

We have to give Butler a multi year extension and a bigger role next year. He’s the real deal. 8.5 assists per 36, and the 3 ball will absolutely start to fall. Plays high level defense too. He should’ve been a lottery pick out of college. Doesn’t turn 24 until late august. Same age as a projected 1st round pick like Tyler Kolek.

[penbeast0]

I'm glad he still looks decent while getting bigger minutes. I wanted to see what we had since all we had were G-league stats and garbage time numbers. But I've been saying we need to sign him properly all year as he at least showed promise. I'd look to resign at least one of our bigs too. Holmes seems the player he was in Sacramento and Bagley at least plays NBA offense. We still need a long term solution at the 5 but either can be a capable backup if they continue to produce like they have for us this year.

[9 and 20]

How about we trade for Jokic.
A lineup of Tyus/Bilal/Kispert/Deni/Jokic should be fun to watch.. can we make it happen?
(Its nice to dream from time to time)..

Best comment on this site I've ever seen. Combination of genius in its simplicity and sheer laziness is fantastic. Well done.

[dckingsfan]

So with respect to PG, I hope we can figure out how to take the BPA and it is also a PG . That and sign Tyus to a declining contract along with Butler and we are good at another position moving forward.

With respect to C, we don't have to do anything for next year. Just play out Bagley/Holmes while we draft younger players and hope that Vukcevic develops as well.

I think it looks something like this.

Code: Select all

Tyus Jones      27   ??             Draft Pick        ??   ??          Jared Butler      23   ??
Corey Kispert   25   $3,722,040     Jordan Poole      24   $27,455,357 Johnny Davis      22   $5,050,800
Deni Avdija     23   $6,263,188     Bilal Coulibaly   19   $6,614,280          
Kyle Kuzma      28   $25,568,182    Patrick Baldwin   21   $2,337,720          
Richaun Holmes  30   $12,046,020    Marvin Bagley     25   $12,500,000  Tristan Vukcevic 21   $2,424,892

I am missing the 20 something draft pick - have no idea where that will go.

That is now becoming a youngish team with expiring contracts (Holmes, Bagley & Kispert), contracts that you wouldn't exercise for the following year (Davis) and flexibility moving forward if they can sign Tyus on a declining contract. I think that Kuzma (if he stays healthy) becomes more valuable over time as well.

The key will be to swing for the fences with your picks and hope you hit a top 25 player with one of them.

[nate33]

The solid play of Holmes and Bagley prove the wisdom of trading Gafford. Gafford might be slightly better than those guys, but not by much. Better to have a guy who is 95% of Gafford plus an extra FRP, than have Gafford alone.

The bottom line is that it's pretty easy to replace mediocre players. The difference between the 150th best player in the league and the 180th best player in the league is practically nothing. You barely notice the loss. What matters is the top end. The difference between the 30th and 60th best players in the league is significant, and the difference between the 1st, and 31st best player is massive.

[doclinkin]

So with respect to PG, I hope we can figure out how to take the BPA and it is also a PG .

Entirely possible since it looks to be a strength of this draft.

Topic
Castle
Dillingham
Sheppard

All have been mocked in the top 5. Lower down there are another half dozen who look like viable candidates, available and productive with lower value picks. You can draft a scenario to fit any of them in the Wizards line-ups. Even Dillingham, who looks like the player we imagined we were getting with Poole.

Which sort of nods to the direction I think we will go though. Yes we will select BPA. That may be a ballhandling guard. But the statistical uptick that Poole has shown may give the front office the cover to let Jones go and leave Poole as the lead guard. Yes he still is not good. However that is the point. So to speak. We need to keep losing, playing Poole gives us the best chance to do so. (And maybe to rehab the value of the contract for a trade at a later date, but that is a sunk cost at this point). HIs value is to help us lose in various exciting ways.

Now is not the time to tweak the roster for ideal fit. Scouts don't see a franchise savior in this draft. We still need to harvest losses for the next couple years, to stockpile lotto combinations that might win us that franchise star. Yes we hate to watch bad basketball, but marginal improvement gets us nowhere. I think they will make an offer for Jones, but he will probably sign elsewhere for a team that has a better chance to win. I don't think we will break the bank to keep him, even if it is better for the development of our younger players.

If we select a PG as BPA then maybe it gives the staff a reason to play the new kid in that lead spot and leave Poole on the bench. Live with the mistakes of the new guy. But if so I don't see us able to keep Jones unless we offer a contract bigger than others put on the table. It's not like he will be excited to lose a starting role to stay with a losing team, just to mentor his replacement, cement his rep as a back-up, and reduce the value of his next contract.

I think they will draft BPA of the player who has the greatest possible upside, more than short term potential and productivity. At all of our selections. Me personally I like picking guys who have a track record of success. Often that means not ruling out upperclassmen etc since you can track their ability to improve. But those guys are more plug and play. They may improve the team immediately in the short run, but build us towards the better end of mediocre as opposed to being contenders for a trophy.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The solid play of Holmes and Bagley prove the wisdom of trading Gafford. Gafford might be slightly better than those guys, but not by much. Better to have a guy who is 95% of Gafford plus an extra FRP, than have Gafford alone.

The bottom line is that it's pretty easy to replace mediocre players. The difference between the 150th best player in the league and the 180th best player in the league is practically nothing. You barely notice the loss. What matters is the top end. The difference between the 30th and 60th best players in the league is significant, and the difference between the 1st, and 31st best player is massive.

I was wrong about the Gafford trade.

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[gambitx777]

The solid play of Holmes and Bagley prove the wisdom of trading Gafford. Gafford might be slightly better than those guys, but not by much. Better to have a guy who is 95% of Gafford plus an extra FRP, than have Gafford alone.

The bottom line is that it's pretty easy to replace mediocre players. The difference between the 150th best player in the league and the 180th best player in the league is practically nothing. You barely notice the loss. What matters is the top end. The difference between the 30th and 60th best players in the league is significant, and the difference between the 1st, and 31st best player is massive.

I was wrong about the Gafford trade.

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I liked it right away but I didn't think holmes was gonna come alive again! Bagleys been great and our new euro wonder looks great what a swing


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[nate33]

I'm starting to believe that Deni as the long term solution at PG might just work out. We would still want a dynamic shot creator on the floor with him to bend a defense, but it's looking more and more like Deni is capable of running the team and getting them into their sets. I'm not suggesting he be Luka on offense, but something more like Pippen.

The impact of Deni at PG is that the defense can become elite because there is no short player to exploit. As long as you find a switchable center, you can switch all screens and force teams to play isolation offense all the time. This is what Boston did in the last 2 seasons with Horford at center and Smart at PG. They ranked 1st and 5th defensively in those two seasons.

This is a strong argument to draft Sarr if he is available. A team with Deni at PG, the idealized version of Sarr at center, a defense-bending star scorer at wing (Flagg? Bailey?) and good role players 6-6 or taller elsewhere would be formidable. We may already have some of those good role players in Coulibaly and Kispert, plus the #26 pick and maybe Kuzma (or whomever we trade him for).

Keep Butler around as a more conventional PG option if we need to chase around a Trae Young type of jitterbug scorer at PG. Vukcevic also fits as a stretch big to really open up the offense (at a cost to the defense).

Poole is the short term stand-in as the dynamic scorer. He would hopefully be replaced by our 2025 lotto pick.

Coulibaly is the X-factor. It won't work at all if he can't shoot; it works pretty well if he is a reliable 3&D guy; and it would be awesome if he becomes a more dynamic offensive player who can handle the ball and make decisions.

[NatP4]

Repeating myself here, but I really want Topic&Murray-Boyles at #1-6 and #26. Vukcevic might be a real player here. There just aren’t that many legit 7 footers that can shoot like that, and it can pair really well with an undersized defensive force like what Murray-Boyles projects to be. Topic-Avdija-Vukcevic-Coulibaly are certain to have that euro ball chemistry in terms of playing the right way and moving the ball.

Jared Butler also looks like a real player, I’m thinking legit starting impact guard. He was a lottery pick without the health problems. We got a steal here if we can lock him up, and he pairs so well with more ball dominant playmakers like Topic and Deni.

Still think Davis just turns into a solid hustle/defender that you keep around for cheap and is useful. Something like a Garret Temple.

I’m not so sold on Flagg&Bailey in 2025, there’s a ton of other really talented prospects in the class, but I love this:

Topic Butler
Coulibaly Davis
Avdija Kispert
Murray-Boyles
Vukcevic

[doclinkin]

This is a strong argument to draft Sarr if he is available. A team with Deni at PG, the idealized version of Sarr at center, a defense-bending star scorer at wing (Flagg? Bailey?)

If not Sarr, or Flagg/Bailey, let's just tank for (Duke commit) Khaman Maluach

Watch on YouTube

7'2" player doing this. And he may not be done growing.