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Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II 

Post#241 » by pancakes3 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:49 pm

Dat2U wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.


Defense. Upside. I'm erring on both in this case.

Long term Coulibaly is a 3. I don't see the frame to play the 4 extensively anytime soon although he's certainly switchable 1-4.

But next season I like Coulibaly & Avdija as our main wings provided we go big or guard in the draft. You have two long, athletic switchable defenders to cover up Poole or whoever we draft. Add a defensive C and suddenly you have an NBA caliber unit capable of getting stops.

This is also contingent on Kuz being here as they don't seem to be in a rush to move him nor is he pushing to leave. Ideally you move Kuz for an SG at some point in the near future and you can slide Deni & Bilal into their natural positions at the 3 & 4.


Bilal measured at 6'6 and some change without shoes at the combine, but based off eye test and corroborating twitter sleuths, he grew significantly (see below). He's gonna be 6'9ish with shoes. But that's really not the point. The way I see it for the next 2-3 seasons:

1) Deni has the offensive and defensive skills to play either forward spots seamlessly, so that's really good for the team.

2) Kuz can play SF, but doesn't have the footspeed to guard SF's (Tatum, Kawhi, Butler, Michael Porter Jr, Scottie Barnes, et al) so he can only really guard power forwards, and even then, not especially well. He'd get cooked at sg.

3) Bilal can guard anyone that Deni can guard, but I think neither of them could legitimately pick up a SG for extended stretches. Deni maybe, Bilal probably a tougher time, and even then, only the bigger SG like Booker, Ant, Jaylen Brown. They shouldn't be chasing CJ McCollum, Donovan Mitchell, or Immanuel Quickley around screens.

4) So you've got 3 guys to play at the forward spots, and in certain matchups, could guard 2-guards as well. The issue with sticking one of them at 2-guard (Deni to me is the most capable) is that it limits the offense (Kispert/Poole can do more from the 2-guard position) for marginal increases in defense.

5) While it's true that a team can have different roles offensively and defensively, especially with positionless schemes on offense, and have Kuz "play" sg on offense but have Deni "play" sg on defense, at the end of the day it's still a man-to-man league. Yes, you can hide guys on defense by switching defensive assignments, that's usually between pg/sg, but not entirely different shifts between 3+ players. It gets too chaotic, and you'll get caught out of position. When you go down the court and run your set, and the guy you're supposed to guard is on the other end of the court, and takes off after a miss, you have to make up the ground to get back on defense and the other guy has to do the same with his switched assignment. Doing all of this in transition, with 3 moving pieces is a level of defensive discipline that I don't think we're capable of - or really any team is capable of.

Like, picture Kuz coming off a screen for a shot at the top of the key being guarded by Lebron, Bilal's the screener being guarded by Reeves, and Deni is in the corner being guarded by Rui. Kuz misses. Do you want Kuz to stick with Lebron? Do you want Bilal to pick up Lebron and have Kuz cover Reeves? What happens when it's Deni who's setting the screen and now you have Lebron and Rui taking off with Deni and Kuz at the top of the key and Bilal in the corner with Reeves? Bilal's assignment is... who? Reeves? What if it was Lebron? He has to make up the distance from corner to the top of the key plus the head start Lebron had after the miss. But Deni's already taken off in transition to keep Rui/Bron from getting a layup, and he's supposed to stick Reeves. How do they reset? When do they reset? Does this sound complicated? It sounds complicated to me, and I'm the one who posited the hypo.

tl;dr, Let Bilal/Deni/Kuz rotate the forward spots, and just let Kispert play sg.

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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II 

Post#242 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 2:16 pm

pancakes3 wrote:Like, picture Kuz coming off a screen for a shot at the top of the key being guarded by Lebron, Bilal's the screener being guarded by Reeves, and Deni is in the corner being guarded by Rui. Kuz misses. Do you want Kuz to stick with Lebron? Do you want Bilal to pick up Lebron and have Kuz cover Reeves? What happens when it's Deni who's setting the screen and now you have Lebron and Rui taking off with Deni and Kuz at the top of the key and Bilal in the corner with Reeves? Bilal's assignment is... who? Reeves? What if it was Lebron? He has to make up the distance from corner to the top of the key plus the head start Lebron had after the miss. But Deni's already taken off in transition to keep Rui/Bron from getting a layup, and he's supposed to stick Reeves. How do they reset? When do they reset? Does this sound complicated? It sounds complicated to me, and I'm the one who posited the hypo.

tl;dr, Let Bilal/Deni/Kuz rotate the forward spots, and just let Kispert play sg.


I think the scenario you painted belies your point.

If you are worried about transition defense across matchups, wouldn't it be better to have your 3 wings be Deni, Kuz and Bilal rather than just two of those guys plus Kispert? I'll take any of Deni, Kuz or Bilal on Lebron before I put Kispert on Lebron!

The real question is whether or not the shooting, spacing and smart cutting of Kispert helps the offense more so than his bad defense hurts. And I agree that is lineup dependent and matchup dependent. If the other team likes to hunt on offense, Kispert is going to be a problem. A team like Dallas will bring Kispert's matchup into a high screen to force Kispert to switch onto Doncic. But other teams don't hunt mismatches as much so Kispert is fine.
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Re: Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II 

Post#243 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:38 pm

I'm going to unsticky this thread now. We can start a new one next year when we know what our rotation will look like.

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