Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[9 and 20]

I prefer trading for Jokic (see above) to drafting Khaman Malauch.

[nate33]

This is a strong argument to draft Sarr if he is available. A team with Deni at PG, the idealized version of Sarr at center, a defense-bending star scorer at wing (Flagg? Bailey?)

If not Sarr, or Flagg/Bailey, let's just tank for (Duke commit) Khaman Maluach

Watch on YouTube

7'2" player doing this. And he may not be done growing.

I was hoping to land our primary-option scorer in the lottery of 2025.

[nate33]

One interesting aspect of Poole moving to starting PG is that it changes Deni's role. For most of the year, Deni has been a starter, but he has been pulled early from the rotation so that he can run the second unit as the default PG while Tyus was off the court. The second-order affect of that was that Kuzma stayed with the starters where his inefficient high usage was taking shots from other guys who might be able to take on more usage efficiently (Kispert, Gafford, Bagley, Tyus).

But if Tyus is out and Poole starts, than it kinda makes sense for Deni to just stick with the starting lineup alongside Poole the whole time to serve as a secondary PG, since Poole is really more of a combo-guard. Butler is more of a true PG who can handle running the 2nd unit without Deni's help. With that the case, Kuzma should now take on Deni's old rotation where Kuzma sits early and then comes in to anchor the offense of the second unit. That might actually be a better role for Kuzma. His inefficient shot creation should become more efficient against second-string defenses, and the second unit needs a primary defense-bender.

[tontoz]

One interesting aspect of Poole moving to starting PG is that it changes Deni's role. For most of the year, Deni has been a starter, but he has been pulled early from the rotation so that he can run the second unit as the default PG while Tyus was off the court. The second-order affect of that was that Kuzma stayed with the starters where his inefficient high usage was taking shots from other guys who might be able to take on more usage efficiently (Kispert, Gafford, Bagley, Tyus).

But if Tyus is out and Poole starts, than it kinda makes sense for Deni to just stick with the starting lineup alongside Poole the whole time to serve as a secondary PG, since Poole is really more of a combo-guard. With that the case, Kuzma should now take on Deni's old rotation where Kuzma sits early and then comes in to anchor the second unit. That might actually be a better role for Kuzma. His inefficient shot creation should become more efficient against second-string defenses, and the second unit needs a primary defense-bender.

Or maybe you are reaching to find a useful role for Kuzma

Sorry couldnt resist but Kuzma needs to be gone this summer.

[nate33]

One interesting aspect of Poole moving to starting PG is that it changes Deni's role. For most of the year, Deni has been a starter, but he has been pulled early from the rotation so that he can run the second unit as the default PG while Tyus was off the court. The second-order affect of that was that Kuzma stayed with the starters where his inefficient high usage was taking shots from other guys who might be able to take on more usage efficiently (Kispert, Gafford, Bagley, Tyus).

But if Tyus is out and Poole starts, than it kinda makes sense for Deni to just stick with the starting lineup alongside Poole the whole time to serve as a secondary PG, since Poole is really more of a combo-guard. With that the case, Kuzma should now take on Deni's old rotation where Kuzma sits early and then comes in to anchor the second unit. That might actually be a better role for Kuzma. His inefficient shot creation should become more efficient against second-string defenses, and the second unit needs a primary defense-bender.

Or maybe you are reaching to find a useful role for Kuzma

Sorry couldnt resist but Kuzma needs to be gone this summer.

There's nothing wrong with trying to make a guy fit as well as possible and leverage his strengths where they are most needed.

[tontoz]

One interesting aspect of Poole moving to starting PG is that it changes Deni's role. For most of the year, Deni has been a starter, but he has been pulled early from the rotation so that he can run the second unit as the default PG while Tyus was off the court. The second-order affect of that was that Kuzma stayed with the starters where his inefficient high usage was taking shots from other guys who might be able to take on more usage efficiently (Kispert, Gafford, Bagley, Tyus).

But if Tyus is out and Poole starts, than it kinda makes sense for Deni to just stick with the starting lineup alongside Poole the whole time to serve as a secondary PG, since Poole is really more of a combo-guard. With that the case, Kuzma should now take on Deni's old rotation where Kuzma sits early and then comes in to anchor the second unit. That might actually be a better role for Kuzma. His inefficient shot creation should become more efficient against second-string defenses, and the second unit needs a primary defense-bender.

Or maybe you are reaching to find a useful role for Kuzma

Sorry couldnt resist but Kuzma needs to be gone this summer.

There's nothing wrong with trying to make a guy fit as well as possible and leverage his strengths where they are most needed.

There is nothing wrong with getting rid of a guy who clearly doesnt fit with long term plans in order to give more opportunities to young players.

Kuzmas bad shot selection is part of who he is. It isn't realistic to think that will suddenly change on a bad team regardless of when he plays.

[nate33]

There is nothing wrong with getting rid of a guy who clearly doesnt fit with long term plans in order to give more opportunities to young players.

I agree. I'm just saying we should maximize his talents here while we have him, which would hopefully boost his trade value.

I'm totally in favor of moving him this offseason if a good deal comes along. I'm just not at the point where I think he is detrimental to the development of our roster. If only bad trade offers are on the table this summer, I'm content to be patient... at least up until the Trade Deadline.

This past season, I was of the belief that Kuzma's shot creation and usage absorption was important so that other guys could develop at a usage rate appropriate for their skillset. I stand by that belief. I was fine with how Kuzma played this season. But going forward, given the development from Poole, Avdija and Kispert, and the addition of Bagley, I no longer believe the same dynamic is in play. I think we now have enough guys who are capable of responsibly absorbing the extra possessions that would be available if Kuzma is moved.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

With the draft approaching, what do we currently have with the roster next year ?

C - Vukcevic, Bagley, Holmes
PF- Kuzma, Baldwin, Omoruyi
SF- Avdija, Kispert
SG- Bilal, Davis
PG- Poole, Butler

With the Butler signing I don't see Tyus coming back. I don't hold out much hope for Davis, or PBJ for that matter after this season. I can see Champagnie finding a spot off the bench in place of Davis.

[nate33]

With the draft approaching, what do we currently have with the roster next year ?

C - Vukcevic, Bagley, Holmes
PF- Kuzma, Baldwin, Omoruyi
SF- Avdija, Kispert
SG- Bilal, Davis
PG- Poole, Butler

With the Butler signing I don't see Tyus coming back. I don't hold out much hope for Davis, or PBJ for that matter after this season. I can see Champagnie finding a spot off the bench in place of Davis.

That's our roster, but Omoruyi is non-guaranteed. If we draft at that position or find other walk-ons better than Omoruyi, it's likely that he will be let go. He has great energy, but let's face it, the guy is 27 years old. He is not part of the future.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they bring Anthony Gill back. It's crazy how beloved that guy is in the locker room.

[TGW]

Despite this terrible season, I see alot of positives. Will Dawkins is doing a great job identifying good young players. Get him more swings at bat, and he'll find talent.

I was very down on Poole, but he has played considerably better and I can actually see him in a regular rotation now.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.

[dckingsfan]

Despite this terrible season, I see alot of positives. Will Dawkins is doing a great job identifying good young players. Get him more swings at bat, and he'll find talent.

I was very down on Poole, but he has played considerably better and I can actually see him in a regular rotation now.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.

This. Keefe has been pretty darn good. Deni has finally broken out (and his contract is really good). Kuz' contract is looking pretty good in the future. We have 3 expiring contracts that can be used in trades (Kispert, Bagley & Holmes).

[NatP4]

Despite this terrible season, I see alot of positives. Will Dawkins is doing a great job identifying good young players. Get him more swings at bat, and he'll find talent.

I was very down on Poole, but he has played considerably better and I can actually see him in a regular rotation now.

There is light at the end of the tunnel.

Fully agree, and the 2025 draft class really looks awesome. Flagg looks like a guy that wins championships.

Dawkins is going to CRUSH the 2024 draft. We are sitting in a great spot.

[dckingsfan]

With the draft approaching, what do we currently have with the roster next year ?

C - Vukcevic, Bagley, Holmes
PF- Kuzma, Baldwin, Omoruyi
SF- Avdija, Kispert
SG- Bilal, Davis
PG- Poole, Butler

With the Butler signing I don't see Tyus coming back. I don't hold out much hope for Davis, or PBJ for that matter after this season. I can see Champagnie finding a spot off the bench in place of Davis.

Slight changes from my view.

C - Bagley, Vukcevic, Holmes
PF- Kuzma, Baldwin
SF- Avdija, Bilal
SG- Kispert, Davis
PG- Poole, Butler

+ 2 FRPs - that gets us to 13. I really hope it isn't a 30 win team that bumps us out of the lottery. I say that because Avidja is clearly on the upside, Bilal is going to get better (IMO), this is a "decent" C rotation and Poole seems to be pretty okay at PG. That and Keefe seems to know how to work with this group. Of course, the trio of Poole, Kispert and Kuz may continue to be really bad defensively (so there is that).

I also think that one of Bagely or Holmes get bundled in a trade (expiring). I think it is one more year or at the trade deadline before Kuz gets moved.

[nate33]

I really hope it isn't a 30 win team that bumps us out of the lottery. I say that because Avidja is clearly on the upside, Bilal is going to get better (IMO), this is a "decent" C rotation and Poole seems to be pretty okay at PG. That and Keefe seems to know how to work with this group. Of course, the trio of Poole, Kispert and Kuz may continue to be really bad defensively (so there is that).

I guess the way to look at it is to assess what other teams have worse talent than us. The way I see it, there are only 6 teams who might consider tanking hard, and really probably only 2 or 3 of them will.

Detroit is obviously a candidate to finish worse than us since they're worse than us now. I do think they want to win though since they are so starved for a sign of progress. So if they have a half-decent start early in the year, I think they'll try and push for a play-in.

San Antonio is going to improve faster than us because of Wemby. They had to overtly tank the first 50 games this year - intentionally sabotaging their roster with no PG and a minutes restriction on Wemby to do as bad as they did. That won't happen next year.

Portland could be awful. I expect them to move Brogdon and Grant and position themselves for ultra tanking. And given that they're in the West, it should be easy.

I don't think Toronto will commit to tanking with Barnes, Quickley, Barrett on the roster. The fact that they traded OG for actual flesh and blood young players instead of future draft capital suggests they don't have the stomach to tank an entire season.

Charlotte has way better young talent than us with Miller, Ball and Bridges, but they seem to get hurt every year. They should be better than us, but who knows?

Utah is the only other team that might tank. They have enough talent to get to 35 wins, but Ainge is ruthless. I wouldn't be surprised if they moved to Markkanen and committed to tanking given the talent in this draft. It's never been easier to tank than in the West these days.

I can't think of anyone else who will commit to tanking. Brooklyn is terrible, but they don't own their pick so they'll keep trying. Golden State isn't going to trade Curry and tank. Chicago doesn't seem to want to tank. Maybe Atlanta trades Trae and resets, but I think they still have too much talent with Murray, Jalen Johnson and some decent vets.

So I guess we can expect Portland and Detroit to be at the bottom of the standings with us. I figure at least one more team gets an early injury or something and decides to shift gears and tank, but that's probably about it. So we are in good shape to finish in the bottom 4.

[9 and 20]

We better tank next year! I want to see Johnny Davis and Jordan Poole in the backcourt together for 20 minutes a game. Might need to decide for sure of Davis is a bust and get that JPoop trade value up.

Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey mixtapes have me thinking back to watching John Wall high school highlights after we won the lotto that year.

[tontoz]

We better tank next year! I want to see Johnny Davis and Jordan Poole in the backcourt together for 20 minutes a game. Might need to decide for sure of Davis is a bust and get that JPoop trade value up.

Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey mixtapes have me thinking back to watching John Wall high school highlights after we won the lotto that year.

Keep in mind that teams are a lot healthier/more motivated earlier in the season. Late in the season a lot of teams are tired/uninterested/tanking/injured/ resting starters.

Don't let these late season wins fool you into thinking we aren't still bad.

[DCZards]

I also wouldn't be surprised if they bring Anthony Gill back. It's crazy how beloved that guy is in the locker room.

Not only is AG beloved…the Zards probably get more bang for the buck out of him than anyone on the roster. Gill makes $2 mil a year and gives you smart play, effort and a solid contribution every time he steps on the court.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Curious what the opinion is on Bagley?

At first I thought we might have really lucked out and found another piece to build on. The one man's trash is another man's treasure scenario. But he seems to be injury prone, and has a recurring back issue which usually isn't something that goes away and generally tends to only get worse.

Should we try to move him this offseason, or is he someone we should try to lock up for a reasonable deal, and establish him as a key building block off the bench (along with Kispert & Butler) as our main big off the bench. Or keep him for now to hopefully build his value to deal at next year's deadline?

The last scenario just seems like a path to nowhere as we saw with Shamet & Tyus, whereas Gafford was deal-able because he was signed longer term. Probably better to move him sooner than later, if we don't see him as someone we want to keep here. Is he even tradeable with his contract I think its 12 mil the final year, or is this just a Shamet situation we've got him for a season then he's gone. I guess at that point at least we get some salary cap space.

[nate33]

Curious what the opinion is on Bagley?

At first I thought we might have really lucked out and found another piece to build on. The one man's trash is another man's treasure scenario. But he seems to be injury prone, and has a recurring back issue which usually isn't something that goes away and generally tends to only get worse.

Should we try to move him this offseason, or is he someone we should try to lock up for a reasonable deal, and establish him as a key building block off the bench (along with Kispert & Butler) as our main big off the bench. Or keep him for now to hopefully build his value to deal at next year's deadline?

The last scenario just seems like a path to nowhere as we saw with Shamet & Tyus, whereas Gafford was deal-able because he was signed longer term. Probably better to move him sooner than later, if we don't see him as someone we want to keep here. Is he even tradeable with his contract I think its 12 mil the final year, or is this just a Shamet situation we've got him for a season then he's gone. I guess at that point at least we get some salary cap space.

Detroit had to spend 2 SRP's just to dump the final year of his salary, so I seriously doubt he is moveable - at least not for value. He has played better here than in Detroit but not so much better that teams will give us anything for the privilege of paying him $12.5M.

I assume we will keep him for next year and give him an opportunity to step up his game. I expect Bagley will be highly motivated to play well because this will probably be his last chance to impress suitors in the free agency market. If he improves a whole lot, maybe we will give him an extension or trade him for a late pick. But I think the higher likelihood is that he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2025 and moves on (or he is moved at the Trade Deadline as salary ballast in some larger deal).

TLDR, he is a short-term place-holder at center until he can be replaced with a better player. If we don't know who that "better player" is by Summer 2025, maybe we keep Bagley a bit longer.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Curious what the opinion is on Bagley?

At first I thought we might have really lucked out and found another piece to build on. The one man's trash is another man's treasure scenario. But he seems to be injury prone, and has a recurring back issue which usually isn't something that goes away and generally tends to only get worse.

Should we try to move him this offseason, or is he someone we should try to lock up for a reasonable deal, and establish him as a key building block off the bench (along with Kispert & Butler) as our main big off the bench. Or keep him for now to hopefully build his value to deal at next year's deadline?

The last scenario just seems like a path to nowhere as we saw with Shamet & Tyus, whereas Gafford was deal-able because he was signed longer term. Probably better to move him sooner than later, if we don't see him as someone we want to keep here. Is he even tradeable with his contract I think its 12 mil the final year, or is this just a Shamet situation we've got him for a season then he's gone. I guess at that point at least we get some salary cap space.

Detroit had to spend 2 SRP's just to dump the final year of his salary, so I seriously doubt he is moveable - at least not for value. He has played better here than in Detroit but not so much better that teams will give us anything for the privilege of paying him $12.5M.

I assume we will keep him for next year and give him an opportunity to step up his game. I expect Bagley will be highly motivated to play well because this will probably be his last chance to impress suitors in the free agency market. If he improves a whole lot, maybe we will give him an extension or trade him for a late pick. But I think the higher likelihood is that he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2025 and moves on (or he is moved at the Trade Deadline as salary ballast in some larger deal).

TLDR, he is a short-term place-holder at center until he can be replaced with a better player. If we don't know who that "better player" is by Summer 2025, maybe we keep Bagley a bit longer.

I can see him playing himself into a contract here. But I think the main thing that will hold him back is his inability to stay healthy.