Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[dckingsfan]

I noted some interesting team Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating and Net Rating rankings for the Wizards this year.

For the season, the rankings look like this:
Net: 28th
Off: 25th
Def: 28th

I'm going to focus on two key inflection points:

The first took place on December 29th when Wes finally abandoned the Gallo at backup center experiment. For the first 30 games, the strategy was clearly to try and outscore the opposition with pace and space. Defense was an afterthought. But they could only take so many blowout losses before their eyes started to bleed and the finally went with a more conventional rotation.

First 30 games (pace and space)
Net: 27th
Off: 25th
Def: 30th

Next 8 games (no Gallo)
Net: 24th
Off: 25th
Def: 23th

It's a relatively subtle distinction, but you can see that the defense improved to at least a passable competence. The offense was the same, or rather, it was probably a bit worse as a team, but that was offset a bit by Poole no longer being quite the disastrous train wreck he was in the first 20 games or so.


The next inflection point took place after the Bagley trade. Muscala was doing his best to play like a professional NBA center, but let's face it, he's really not that guy anymore. Replacing him with a genuine NBA center has done wonders for the defense. The offense would probably be a bit better too, but this stretch has coincided with Kuzma going into an offensive funk (TS% of just .507 over this stretch).

Last 10 games (with Bagley)
Net: 24th
Off: 26th
Def: 15th

For what it's worth, there does not appear to be a significant change under Keefe. I think, generally speaking, the team shift to focus on playing professional NBA defense actually happened about 18 games ago and was subsequently boosted by the talent infusion of Bagley. The recent games with Keefe have also benefitted from a pretty easy schedule featuring Detroit, San Antonio and the not-really-that-good Heat:

Last 5 games (since Keefe took over)
Net: 21th
Off: 26th
Def: 12th

Overall, I'm very happy with the development. I think it's a better developmental strategy to focus on being competent on defense and just living with whatever you can muster on offense. The offense will get better as the individual offensive talent improves, while the defense is much more dependent on the culture. You want the young guys to be indoctrinated into a good defensive culture.

Yep, the Bagley trade was a good one. I think the coaching change as well. Now, have Poole come off the bench and our offensive rating will come up as well (IMO). I would be really happy with that change.

Now, who should start in his place? I would think it would be Kispert but... I wouldn't fight if it was Bilal or Shamet.

[dckingsfan]

With Jones out, who can fill in as pg?

They will probably use Delon but . . . JARED BUTLER! Give him starter minutes and let's see how he plays with the big boys.

This - that would allow Delon to come off the bench. And why not make the transition now to:

Butler - Wright
Kispert - Poole
Deni - Bilal
Kuz - Deni
Gafford - Bagley

Then again, not sure Bagley will be back with the back contusions.

[dckingsfan]

So, it was Kuz out and Bilal that got the start. Any thoughts on that?

[nate33]

So, it was Kuz out and Bilal that got the start. Any thoughts on that?

It didn't mind the decision to start Bilal, but the fact that he scored 0 points in 25 minutes helps to explain why he hasn't been a regular starter.

If we actually cared about winning games, Kispert is probably the better choice to start if Kuzma is out. Or possibly Omoruyi. That guy does nothing but produce.

[nate33]

We really need to see some more of Omoruyi. His production is ridiculous, and it doesn't seem to get any worse even as the sample size increases.

Per 36, the guy is averaging:
27.3 points
10.3 rebounds
3.8 assists
3.2 steals
2.4 turnovers
.647 TS%
+14.0 on/off

He is up to 133 total minutes so far, so he has basically produced like this for the equivalent of 4 full NBA games (albeit against backups).

[dckingsfan]

We really need to see some more of Omoruyi. His production is ridiculous, and it doesn't seem to get any worse even as the sample size increases.

Per 36, the guy is averaging:
27.3 points
10.3 rebounds
3.8 assists
3.2 steals
2.4 turnovers
.647 TS%
+14.0 on/off

He is up to 133 total minutes so far, so he has basically produced like this for the equivalent of 4 full NBA games (albeit against backups).

If/when we trade Kuz a rotation of Deni/Bilal + Kispert/Eugene would be fine. Mostly because (I think) it will accelerate the development of Deni & Bilal.

I still would rather have Kispert at SG but it seems like that ship has left the doc (pun).

[dckingsfan]

So, it was Kuz out and Bilal that got the start. Any thoughts on that?

It didn't mind the decision to start Bilal, but the fact that he scored 0 points in 25 minutes helps to explain why he hasn't been a regular starter.

If we actually cared about winning games, Kispert is probably the better choice to start if Kuzma is out. Or possibly Omoruyi. That guy does nothing but produce.

I liked the decision - but like you say, if you are trying to win now...

[doclinkin]

If we actually cared about winning games, Kispert is probably the better choice to start if Kuzma is out. Or possibly Omoruyi. That guy does nothing but produce.

I liked the decision - but like you say, if you are trying to win now...

Right.

We'd be playing Jared Butler and Landry Shamet in all of Poole's minutes. Omoruyi and Kispert while Kuz is out.

But instead we are trying to rehab some of Poole's value for an eventual future trade (next year at the earliest) and preserve our draft position not just in this year but for the next few years. Good drafts coming in 2025 and 26. Meanwhile if we get developmental minutes for Bilal, that's all good. It helps him figure out what he can and cannot do at this level. And what he will need to work on in years 2&3.

That said I'll be curious to see the line-ups after the trade season has passed. It occurs to me Kuz might be resting a shoulder in part because there are trade conversations happening right now.

[Pistol King]

Any guess which players are these three youngsters down below? Their numbers per-36 minutes (they are around the same age):

Pts / Reb / Ast

Player A
16.6/8/5 on 12 shots

Player B
20.7/8.2/5.9 on 16 shots

Player C
22.6/6/4.3 on 18 shots

[tontoz]

Any guess which players are these three youngsters down below? Their numbers per-36 minutes (they are around the same age):

Pts / Reb / Ast

Player A
16.6/8/5 on 12 shots

Player B
20.7/8.2/5.9 on 16 shots

Player C
22.6/6/4.3 on 18 shots

Player A looks like Deni. Not sure about the other 2.

[payitforward]

A is Deni for sure
B & C don't seem to be on our team -- based on 49-game data from https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2024.html

[2Fluffy4U]

A is Deni for sure
B & C don't seem to be on our team -- based on 49-game data from https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2024.html

This is odd. Deni is listed as 6-9, 210 while Kuz is 6-9, 221.. How???

[pcbothwel]

Any guess which players are these three youngsters down below? Their numbers per-36 minutes (they are around the same age):

Pts / Reb / Ast

Player A
16.6/8/5 on 12 shots

Player B
20.7/8.2/5.9 on 16 shots

Player C
22.6/6/4.3 on 18 shots

Deni vs. Scottie Barnes vs Franz.

I made this point on the general board (Except I compared Mikal Bridges instead of Barnes).

Due to age and contract, I have Deni is equal to, or more valuable than Franz and Mikal...But not Barnes

[tontoz]

Any guess which players are these three youngsters down below? Their numbers per-36 minutes (they are around the same age):

Pts / Reb / Ast

Player A
16.6/8/5 on 12 shots

Player B
20.7/8.2/5.9 on 16 shots

Player C
22.6/6/4.3 on 18 shots

Deni vs. Scottie Barnes vs Franz.

I made this point on the general board (Except I compared Mikal Bridges instead of Barnes).

Due to age and contract, I have Deni is equal to, or more valuable than Franz and Mikal...But not Barnes

Good thing we resigned Deni before the season. He would have been a lot more expensive this summer.

[Pistol King]

Deni vs. Scottie Barnes vs Franz.

I made this point on the general board (Except I compared Mikal Bridges instead of Barnes).

Due to age and contract, I have Deni is equal to, or more valuable than Franz and Mikal...But not Barnes

Great catch pcbothwel !

Yesterday out of curiosity I started checking some youngsters stats and found it interesting the pretty much of similarity between these three per-36.

Considering he takes a few less shots, I wondered if he could match their PPG as well while taking the same amount of theirs.

[tontoz]

As long as Deni can make open 3s and convert on drives when available that is enough for him to be a big asset because of his defensive versatility. Last season he did neither now he is doing both.

[payitforward]

Any guess which players are these three youngsters down below? Their numbers per-36 minutes (they are around the same age):

Pts / Reb / Ast

Player A
16.6/8/5 on 12 shots

Player B
20.7/8.2/5.9 on 16 shots

Player C
22.6/6/4.3 on 18 shots

Keep in mind that to judge between these guys, we'd need a little more per-36 minute info:

1. Number of FTAs
2. Number of TOs
3. Number of steals
4. Number of fouls
5. &, of course, rebounding info.

It's a given that Deni's overall numbers are quite good.
All the samee, suppose we compare him another young player -- for the moment I'll just call him "Mr. X."

This year, which is what we're talking about here, Deni gets his team 16.5 points per 36 minutes, Mr. X gets 16.1 -- advantage Deni (+.4).
On top of that Mr. X's points cost his team 2.5 more shots FGAs Deni! -- Deni's advantage grows! (+2.9)

OTOH, Deni takes 1.4 more FTAs -- now a FTA can be treated as having more or less 1/2 the cost of a FGA, so that brings the two guys .7 closer. But, Deni is still producing more value at a lower cost in possessions. (+2.2)

Still, we really have to look at turnovers as well. Deni turns the ball over .9 more times than Mr. X in that same 36 minutes -- so, now, Deni's advantage over Mr. X drops a bit -- to +1.3.

Naturally, a steal is the opposite of a turnover, & Deni gets 1.2 fewer steals than Mr. X in those 36 minutes. So... it's neck and neck, but Deni's still ahead by a nose!! By .1

Now... assists have offensive value too, right? If you figure that a 2-pointer is plus 2 (the points) at minus 1 (the cost of a FGA) for a net of +1, then on that basis many analysts give an assist the a value of "1/2" in this kind of calculation. &, since Deni gets 3 more assists than Mr. X every 36 minutes, well... he's back up by 1.6.

Of course, you could argue that defensive boards are kinda sorta part of a player's offensive contribution - since a defensive rebound does give his team an offensive possession, & Mr. X gets 1.3 more of them than Deni in our 36 minute metric. But, let's leave those aside.

OTOH, we really can't leave offensive boards out of the picture we're painting -- after all an offensive board, essentially, takes away the negative of a missed FGA. Deni gets 1.3 of them. But, here is where the party ends, because Mr. X grabs a pretty extraordinary 3.4 every 36 minutes.

Thus, Mr. X passes Deni comfortably. Not much question about it.

Now... you may well wonder who Mr. X is. But, really, what does it matter?

I'll say this much -- he's a few months younger than Deni, & he was a R1 pick in 2022.

A couple of very good young NBA players; each of them is going to have outstanding long NBA careers. Oh, & here's one more thing:

Spoiler:

Mr. X = Tari Eason.

[pcbothwel]

PIF
I loved Eason and wanted to draft him, but let me play devils advocate.
Eason is a better defender than those guys, but he is more of a tweener big. He doesn’t play make from the wing position like they do. And while his rebounding is also more advanced, his scoring inefficiency, and lackluster free throw rate is something to keep an eye on considering his shot profile.

[payitforward]

Like every player in the league, if he did everything at the level of the things he does best, Tari Eason would be even better.

Nor is that a fact about basketball. Or even about sports. It's a fact about human life!

But, as it is right now, Tari Eason does enough stuff well enough that, overall, he's outstanding. He is, for example, a zillion times better than Paolo Banchero.

As to his "scoring inefficiency," I remind you that every time you get an offensive board you have erased the cost of 1 missed shot. I.e., what matters is overall contribution to team efficiency on offense, & that is through the roof in the case of Eason.

E.g. every 36 minutes, Paolo Banchero scores 22.3 points to Eason's 15.6 -- that's 43% more points! &, therefore, I bet you that most fans (perhaps including most on this Board?) need no more info than that to conclude that he's a much much much better offensive contributor than Eason.

But, in fact, he's not -- in fact, he's a far worse offensive player! Way way worse.

For starters, to get those extra 6.7 points, Paolo takes 3.8 more shots & 4.9 more FTs -- meaning that he's getting them at a TS% of 56.2%, which is way below average for an NBA 4.

Since, along the way, Eason gets 2 steals to Banchero's 1 & commits 1.9 turnovers to Banchero's 3, there isn't really much question as to who's the better scorer -- unless you want 6.7 points at the cost of 3.8 shots, 4.9 FTAs, 3 turnovers minus a steal.

Oh, & then there's the extra 2.7 FGAs Eason gets for the rest of his team by being a far better offensive rebounder than Banchero.

In short, Banchero provides 6.7 points more than Eason provides, while Eason instead provides @10.9 extra chances for his team to score (i.e. from 3.8 fewer FGAs & almost 5 fewer FTAs taken; 1 extra steal, .9 fewer turnovers, + 2.7 more from the extra offensive boards)

Last year, from that list of extra offensive opportunities provided by Eason's 36 minutes as opposed to Banchero's, an average NBA team produced @11.4 extra points.

Taking them away (by having Banchero's per 36 minute productivity instead of Eason's) gets you Banchero's extra 6.7 points.

[DCZards]

PIF, Eason (who plays 22 mins a game) and Banchero (who plays 35 mins a game) have vastly different roles on their teams, as well as different skill sets. That has a significant impact on their respective offensive and rebounding #s.

IMO, you’re comparing apples and oranges when you compare Eason and Banchero.