Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[pancakes3]

We better tank next year! I want to see Johnny Davis and Jordan Poole in the backcourt together for 20 minutes a game.

I get wanting to tank but a Johnny/Jordan backcourt for 20mpg is an affront to the sport, and the basketball gods will punish us for tanking so brazenly.

[Dat2U]

Curious what the opinion is on Bagley?

At first I thought we might have really lucked out and found another piece to build on. The one man's trash is another man's treasure scenario. But he seems to be injury prone, and has a recurring back issue which usually isn't something that goes away and generally tends to only get worse.

Should we try to move him this offseason, or is he someone we should try to lock up for a reasonable deal, and establish him as a key building block off the bench (along with Kispert & Butler) as our main big off the bench. Or keep him for now to hopefully build his value to deal at next year's deadline?

The last scenario just seems like a path to nowhere as we saw with Shamet & Tyus, whereas Gafford was deal-able because he was signed longer term. Probably better to move him sooner than later, if we don't see him as someone we want to keep here. Is he even tradeable with his contract I think its 12 mil the final year, or is this just a Shamet situation we've got him for a season then he's gone. I guess at that point at least we get some salary cap space.

Detroit had to spend 2 SRP's just to dump the final year of his salary, so I seriously doubt he is moveable - at least not for value. He has played better here than in Detroit but not so much better that teams will give us anything for the privilege of paying him $12.5M.

I assume we will keep him for next year and give him an opportunity to step up his game. I expect Bagley will be highly motivated to play well because this will probably be his last chance to impress suitors in the free agency market. If he improves a whole lot, maybe we will give him an extension or trade him for a late pick. But I think the higher likelihood is that he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2025 and moves on (or he is moved at the Trade Deadline as salary ballast in some larger deal).

TLDR, he is a short-term place-holder at center until he can be replaced with a better player. If we don't know who that "better player" is by Summer 2025, maybe we keep Bagley a bit longer.

I can see him playing himself into a contract here. But I think the main thing that will hold him back is his inability to stay healthy.

I think only reason Bagley was acquired was for the picks and the only reason he'll be here next year is because he's under contract. Personally i prefer Richaun Holmes to Bagley and honestly Vukcevic isn't a much worse defender and can actually space the floor.

Bagley's numbers are pretty much the definition of empty stats.

[Dat2U]

I wouldn't mind starting off with this rotation next year.

g Jordan Poole x Jared Butler
g Bilal Coulibaly x Corey Kispert x Johnny Davis
f Deni Avdija x Ron Holland (R)
f Kyle Kuzma x Tristan de Silva (R) x Eugene Omoruyi
c Richaun Holmes x Tristan Vukcevic x Marvin Bagley

[nate33]

I wouldn't mind starting off with this rotation next year.

g Jordan Poole x Jared Butler
g Bilal Coulibaly x Corey Kispert x Johnny Davis
f Deni Avdija x Ron Holland (R)
f Kyle Kuzma x Tristan de Silva (R) x Eugene Omoruyi
c Richaun Holmes x Tristan Vukcevic x Marvin Bagley

My only problem with the Ron Holland pick is that there is a limit to the number of poor-shooting defense-first type forwards we can field in the lineup. We already have Coulibaly and Deni, and if all goes well, we will be in position to draft Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey next summer.

It would be nice to address our weaknesses at guard and/or center in this draft.

It's only a small quibble though. I get that we aren't really in position to draft for need yet. We need talent. If you like Holland best, then that probably outweighs positional considerations. I'm just saying that it looks like the only position where we actually already have talent for the future is at the defensive forward positions.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I wouldn't mind starting off with this rotation next year.

g Jordan Poole x Jared Butler
g Bilal Coulibaly x Corey Kispert x Johnny Davis
f Deni Avdija x Ron Holland (R)
f Kyle Kuzma x Tristan de Silva (R) x Eugene Omoruyi
c Richaun Holmes x Tristan Vukcevic x Marvin Bagley

I like it! Plus maybe hold on to PBJ and Champagnie for some young dudes with some potential as shooters.

[pancakes3]

I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.

[closg00]

I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.

I am still perplexed as-to what position Bilal will play, or what position we are grooming him for...

[tontoz]

I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.

I am still perplexed as-to what position Bilal will play, or what position we are grooming him for...

The position thing isn't a big deal. If he is sharing the court with Kispert i would think he will defend the best wing scorer on the other team whether they are a 2 or a 3.

Bilal doesn't have the size to defend the 4. We have Deni there anyway after Kuzma leaves.

[nate33]

I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.

I am still perplexed as-to what position Bilal will play, or what position we are grooming him for...

My view is that positions, particularly the wing positions (SG, SF and PF), are defined by different criteria depending on whether we are talking about offense or defense.

On defense, your position is based on your size and agility. Agile guys are SG's, long and strong guys are PF's. Guys with both agility and length and strength are multi-position defenders. Coulibaly can play SG, SF or PF defensively (although PF is a stretch until he bulks up a bit more). As can Deni. Kuzma is a SF or PF defensively, but not really a SG.

On offense, your position is based on your skillset. PF's have the least skill, and SG's have the most. The more ball-handling, decision-making, and off-the-bounce shot creation you have, the more you can play SG. The less skilled you are, the more you are limited to just the PF position. Coulibaly can only play PF on offense at the moment. Deni and Kuzma can play SF and PF. Den and Kuz can almost play SG too, but they're still too turnover prone and not quite good enough shooters.

[pancakes3]

I'm talking about offense. Defense is too matchup dependent and it's switch everything anyway.

And the point wasn't so much that Bilal won't work, but that Kispert is right there so why would you try to fit a Bilal-shaped peg into the Kispert-shaped hole just to get him into the starting lineup?

[dckingsfan]

Let's give Bilal a couple of years before we pigeonhole him.

[nate33]

I'm talking about offense. Defense is too matchup dependent and it's switch everything anyway.

And the point wasn't so much that Bilal won't work, but that Kispert is right there so why would you try to fit a Bilal-shaped peg into the Kispert-shaped hole just to get him into the starting lineup?

Yes. I agree that Bilal can't handle SG on offense. He's not even really skilled enough to be a SF at this point, though that might change with an offseason of training. In Dat2U's lineup, I'd argue that Deni would technically be the SG, Kuzma the SF, and Bilal the PF.

It's a semantic distinction that doesn't really mean much. Ultimately, none of those guys are really a SG. As you said, Kispert is probably the most qualified guy on the roster to play SG. But to play him there, one of Bilal, Deni or Kuzma would need to be benched.

[dckingsfan]

I'm talking about offense. Defense is too matchup dependent and it's switch everything anyway.

And the point wasn't so much that Bilal won't work, but that Kispert is right there so why would you try to fit a Bilal-shaped peg into the Kispert-shaped hole just to get him into the starting lineup?

Yes. I agree that Bilal can't handle SG on offense. He's not even really skilled enough to be a SF at this point, though that might change with an offseason of training. In Dat2U's lineup, I'd argue that Deni would technically be the SG, Kuzma the SF, and Bilal the PF.

It's a semantic distinction that doesn't really mean much. Ultimately, none of those guys are really a SG. As you said, Kispert is probably the most qualified guy on the roster to play SG. But to play him there, one of Bilal, Deni or Kuzma would need to be benched.

I am okay if Kispert is the starting SG, especially if they are going to use him as trade bait and want to enhance his value.

But yeah, long-term not so much.

[NatP4]

2024 offseason plan

Trade Kuzma to SAC for #13. Pick Collin Murray-Boyles. Make him a draft promise to get him to declare, no chance he passes on a lottery promise.

Dump Poole in a BOYD deal. Call Orlando and NOP. Attach 2nd round pick(s).

S&T Tyus Jones+26th overall to NOP for Dyson Daniels.

Pick Nikola Topic at #2.

Hire Dan Hurley

Topic Butler
Daniels Davis
Coulibaly Kispert
Avdija Murray-Boyles
Bagley Vukcevic

[nate33]

S&T Tyus Jones+26th overall to NOP for Dyson Daniels.

I like this! Not sure if New Orleans bites, but if they do, I'm all over it.

I'm not too enthused about the rest of your plan though. I don't think it's feasible to unload Poole that cheaply. Actually, I think Poole fits much better if we acquire a guy like Daniels to play alongside him. If nothing else, if he continues to play like he did for the last 20 games, it'll make him easier to move in the future.

I'm inclined to move Kuzma at this point, but I'd prefer to trade him for 2025 draft assets. Firstly because that's a stronger draft. And secondly, I want to ensure more tanking in 2024-25.

I still have no idea who to draft in this draft. I guess I'd take Sarr at #1, but after that I'm uncertain. I'm actually revisiting Ron Holland right now. That guy put up some pretty impressive stats in January before shutting it down. For a guy who can't shoot, he sure puts points on the board and it's not due to ball-hogging. His assist numbers are pretty impressive for a big wing.

In his last 11 games in January, he posted 24.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.6 steals per 36 minutes on a TS% of .598. He shot 80% from the FT line during that stretch.

[NatP4]

I’ve also revisited Holland, he’s become underrated throughout the year, but my mental notes from watching him:

1. He is bad defensively. Poor laterally, non-impactful. Andrew Wiggins on that end. Gambles and produces a good amount of STOCKS, but is a negative on that end.

2. Tunnel vision on O, really much more of a run and jump athlete than a skilled primary option. The Ignite were absolutely terrible all year, Buzelis and Holland were boat anchors. Huge net negative players.

3. Mediocre athlete, great when he gets a clear runway, run and jump athlete, not all that great in terms of functional NBA athleticism. He’s not all that quick laterally and first step.

4. His shooting is broken. Check the synergy numbers. On open catch and shoot attempts he was AWFUL. His profile is more role player miscast into high usage. I think we’re talking more Wesley Johnson/Corey Brewer here.

[DCZards]

Don’t understand the Dyson move. He’s shown little or nothing thus far. Can’t have a starting SG who can’t make 3s or FTs. Dyson is a defender and role player at best. Jones and the pick for Dyson is a big overpay, imo. I might S+T Jones for Dyson but they’re not also getting the 26th pick. That pick is too valuable.

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

[nate33]

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

I'd do the Dyson move because he fits with Poole. I agree that Dyson is a bad pairing with Topic.

Dyson is an elite defender though. Trading for him is a bet that he can become a passable 3-point shooter. He is still extremely young. He just turned 21 a month ago.

[NatP4]

Don’t understand the Dyson move. He’s shown little or nothing thus far. Can’t have a starting SG who can’t make 3s or FTs. Dyson is a defender and role player at best. Jones and the pick for Dyson is a big overpay, imo. I might S+T Jones for Dyson but they’re not also getting the 26th pick. That pick is too valuable.

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

Daniels just turned 21 years old a few days ago, has posted consistently good On/off numbers on a good team, and fills the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and a significantly positive A/TO ratio. Has greatly improved his 2pt%, and is one of the best defensive guards in the league already. We’re talking Jalen Suggs level elite defender. Clearly needs to continue to improve as a shooter, but most players do.

Topic posted 19.1 points and 7.1 assists 3.1 turnovers on a 60.4% TS with a 25.1 usage and a 120.5 offensive rating at 18.7 years old primarily in the Adriatic league and a couple of Euroleague games.

Dillingham posted 23.5 points and 6.0 assists 3.1 turnovers on 59.5% TS on an absurd 30.3 usage with a 118.0 offensive rating at 19.3 years old playing college basketball.

[dckingsfan]

Trade Kuzma to SAC for #13.

From a Sac also fan, this is rejected

Barnes, Murray, Vezenkov and Lyles are under contract and Sac desperately needs another rim protector. No place for Kuz here.

Well, that and we need Kevin Huerter to start making 3s again.

Lastly, Sac has been pretty good drafting recently. I think they take the BCA (defensive C) on the board.