Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread - Part II

[DCZards]

I don’t have problem trading for Dyson. But I’m not giving them Jones AND the pick.

That’s too much to give up for Dyson with the HOPE that he becomes a better shooter. I’d prefer to hold on to that pick where I could draft a Kevin McCullar, Carlton Carrington or Harrison Ingram.

[DCZards]

Don’t understand the Dyson move. He’s shown little or nothing thus far. Can’t have a starting SG who can’t make 3s or FTs. Dyson is a defender and role player at best. Jones and the pick for Dyson is a big overpay, imo. I might S+T Jones for Dyson but they’re not also getting the 26th pick. That pick is too valuable.

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

Daniels just turned 21 years old a few days ago, has posted consistently good On/off numbers on a good team, and fills the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and a significantly positive A/TO ratio. Has greatly improved his 2pt%, and is one of the best defensive guards in the league already. We’re talking Jalen Suggs level elite defender. Clearly needs to continue to improve as a shooter, but most players do.

Topic posted 19.1 points and 7.1 assists 3.1 turnovers on a 60.4% TS with a 25.1 usage and a 120.5 offensive rating at 18.7 years old primarily in the Adriatic league and a couple of Euroleague games.

Dillingham posted 23.5 points and 6.0 assists 3.1 turnovers on 59.5% TS on an absurd 30.3 usage with a 118.0 offensive rating at 19.3 years old playing college basketball.

Topic shot 30% from 3pt range…Dillingham shot 44%.

[payitforward]

Don’t understand the Dyson move. He’s shown little or nothing thus far....

Daniels just turned 21 years old a few days ago, has posted consistently good On/off numbers on a good team, and fills the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and a significantly positive A/TO ratio. Has greatly improved his 2pt%, and is one of the best defensive guards in the league already. We’re talking Jalen Suggs level elite defender. Clearly needs to continue to improve as a shooter, but most players do....

I'm with Nat on this.

We learned the value of Tyus Jones at the deadline. That plus the #26 pick for Daniels? A no-brainer as far as I can understand the deal. But... I doubt NO would go for it.

[NatP4]

Topic shot 30% from 3pt range…Dillingham shot 44%.

Yes, and your concern over the spacing with a Topic/Daniels backcourt is valid. Although, I have made the case on several occasions, that Topic will be just fine as a shooter in the NBA, same for Daniels. Made the same case for Jalen Suggs as a shooter, he’s now a solid 40% 3pt shooter.

My counterpoint was simply that Topic is an outstanding offensive talent that would actually pair nicely with a cerebral lockdown combo guard like Daniels.

Where Topic lacks a bit? He’s not really a high level POA on ball defender. He can be whenever he locks in for moments, but he’s more often the guy that Mega would matchup with a spot up shooter so that he could rest on D. He has the size to matchup with wings and temporarily switch onto bigs and give great effort. Daniels is a MENACE as the on ball defender against pick and rolls.

[doclinkin]

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

I'd do the Dyson move because he fits with Poole. I agree that Dyson is a bad pairing with Topic.

I'd rather draft Castle in that case. Defensive champion with upside and toughness. He's gone up to #2 in some mocks. I like his chances to become a stronger offensive player, and he would fit fine next to a guy like Poole. Then when we draft a 1st-option all-star scorer we already have the non prima donna defender next to him. Castle gives us the option of playing Vukcevic as a stretch Big since he rebounds well from the guard position.

[nate33]

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

I'd do the Dyson move because he fits with Poole. I agree that Dyson is a bad pairing with Topic.

I'd rather draft Castle in that case. Defensive champion with upside and toughness. He's gone up to #2 in some mocks. I like his chances to become a stronger offensive player, and he would fit fine next to a guy like Poole. Then when we draft a 1st-option all-star scorer we already have the non prima donna defender next to him. Castle gives us the option of playing Vukcevic as a stretch Big since he rebounds well from the guard position.

The only problem with that scenario is that we end up using our top 5 pick on a backcourt role player. I'd rather trade Tyus and #26 for that guy, and use our top 5 pick elsewhere.

That said, I like Castle and am open-minded to drafting him with a top pick - particularly if his 3-point shooting improves over the next 3 months of private instruction. The reality is, I don't think Daniels is available that cheaply, so it's a moot point.

[doclinkin]

I'd do the Dyson move because he fits with Poole. I agree that Dyson is a bad pairing with Topic.

I'd rather draft Castle in that case. Defensive champion with upside and toughness. He's gone up to #2 in some mocks. I like his chances to become a stronger offensive player, and he would fit fine next to a guy like Poole. Then when we draft a 1st-option all-star scorer we already have the non prima donna defender next to him. Castle gives us the option of playing Vukcevic as a stretch Big since he rebounds well from the guard position.

The only problem with that scenario is that we end up using our top 5 pick on a backcourt role player. I'd rather trade Tyus and #26 for that guy, and use our top 5 pick elsewhere.

That said, I like Castle and am open-minded to drafting him with a top pick - particularly if his 3-point shooting improves over the next 3 months of private instruction. The reality is, I don't think Daniels is available that cheaply, so it's a moot point.

I think it's an unnecessary slight on Castle to peg his potential solely as a 'back court role player'. Seems to me he has shown more. However even in what he has done so far, his output has been as a championship level role-player. Offense and defense. UConn does not win that repeat without his two-way play.

Here, in a year when the top talent is as likely to flame out as succeed, seems to me a lucky get to snatch a player who has the bonafides and potential to be 1st Team all-defense. His offensive game has upside, his work ethic is unquestioned, he will get better as an offensive player. But few rooks start out able to hang their hat on their defensive resume. Castle does that.

And frankly plays a more important position in today's league than high volume lead ballhandler. If Topic is smothered by a defender in passing and can't get to the middle, what else does he offer? Not shooting, not defense. Castle has shown he can fit in on a team with high volume scorers and take up the slack on nights when they are shut down. But more than anything he is going to give effort even when the spotlight is elsewhere. He's an allstar in dirty work. Dirty work champion. He makes the game easier.

We have seen prima donna scorers come through who are unwilling to play D based on the effort they have to put out at the other end. If we are banking on landing our top scoring talent in next year's draft it seems to me we set them up for success by stacking the team around them with potential DPOY players.

But remember Castle remade his game from first-option scorer in High School, to be a defensive specialist. He was a five-star recruit based on his mano-a-mano contests against Collier as a ballhandling strong guard and set-up man.

Watch on YouTube

He's getting knocked back because of his unselfish game, instead of seeing that he has shown a remarkable ability to adjust and play within the scheme. I think if it like this: picture if we could land a young Deni Avdija, as a 2-guard. Only without the sulking. And with a championship ring. Add him to a league that is starting to emphasize Defense again. But he comes into the Association with a high profile defensive reputation, so refs will be that much more willing to give a rookie the benefit of the doubt.

Then add work ethic and the probability of continued improvement. Personally I don't see anybody in the draft who is no-question better in their position than this kid. The only thing his game needs is a thing he is likely to add. And has shown before.

[nate33]

I'd rather draft Castle in that case. Defensive champion with upside and toughness. He's gone up to #2 in some mocks. I like his chances to become a stronger offensive player, and he would fit fine next to a guy like Poole. Then when we draft a 1st-option all-star scorer we already have the non prima donna defender next to him. Castle gives us the option of playing Vukcevic as a stretch Big since he rebounds well from the guard position.

The only problem with that scenario is that we end up using our top 5 pick on a backcourt role player. I'd rather trade Tyus and #26 for that guy, and use our top 5 pick elsewhere.

That said, I like Castle and am open-minded to drafting him with a top pick - particularly if his 3-point shooting improves over the next 3 months of private instruction. The reality is, I don't think Daniels is available that cheaply, so it's a moot point.

I think it's an unnecessary slight on Castle to peg his potential solely as a 'back court role player'. Seems to me he has shown more. However even in what he has done so far, his output has been as a championship level role-player. Offense and defense. UConn does not win that repeat without his two-way play.

Here, in a year when the top talent is as likely to flame out as succeed, seems to me a lucky get to snatch a player who has the bonafides and potential to be 1st Team all-defense. His offensive game has upside, his work ethic is unquestioned, he will get better as an offensive player. But few rooks start out able to hang their hat on their defensive resume. Castle does that.

And frankly plays a more important position in today's league than high volume lead ballhandler. If Topic is smothered by a defender in passing and can't get to the middle, what else does he offer? Not shooting, not defense. Castle has shown he can fit in on a team with high volume scorers and take up the slack on nights when they are shut down. But more than anything he is going to give effort even when the spotlight is elsewhere. He's an allstar in dirty work. Dirty work champion. He makes the game easier.

We have seen prima donna scorers come through who are unwilling to play D based on the effort they have to put out at the other end. If we are banking on landing our top scoring talent in next year's draft it seems to me we set them up for success by stacking the team around them with potential DPOY players.

But remember Castle remade his game from first-option scorer in High School, to be a defensive specialist. He was a five-star recruit based on his mano-a-mano contests against Collier as a ballhandling strong guard and set-up man.

Watch on YouTube

He's getting knocked back because of his unselfish game, instead of seeing that he has shown a remarkable ability to adjust and play within the scheme. I think if it like this: picture if we could land a young Deni Avdija, as a 2-guard. Only without the sulking. And with a championship ring. Add him to a league that is starting to emphasize Defense again. But he comes into the Association with a high profile defensive reputation, so refs will be that much more willing to give a rookie the benefit of the doubt.

Then add work ethic and the probability of continued improvement. Personally I don't see anybody in the draft who is no-question better in their position than this kid. The only thing his game needs is a thing he is likely to add. And has shown before.

You don't have to sell me. I really like Castle. I figure he is probably about equal to Marcus Smart, and that's okay in this draft. And since he is so young, the possibility remains that he can be Marcus Smart but with better shooting and decision-making, which makes him sort of like a bigger Kyle Lowry. And that's an interesting player!

I too am uneasy with Topic.

Basically, I want my high lotto pick to either play above-average defense, or be so elite on offense that he can be the one non-defender that the rest of the team covers for. (You can only cover for one, at best.) I'm not at all convinced that Topic will be that great on offense to offset his defensive weaknesses. One thing in his favor is that he has the size to guard the worst offensive player among the 1, 2 or 3 so that helps to hide him a little.

[popper]

I'm confused about Poole's role moving forward. I read here he's more productive/efficient as a 1 and terrible as a 2. Does that mean he's likely our starter at 1 next season?

[DCZards]

If you’re gonna trade for Dyson you’re better off pairing him with an offensive guard like Dillingham rather than Topic.

I'd do the Dyson move because he fits with Poole. I agree that Dyson is a bad pairing with Topic.

I'd rather draft Castle in that case. Defensive champion with upside and toughness. He's gone up to #2 in some mocks. I like his chances to become a stronger offensive player, and he would fit fine next to a guy like Poole. Then when we draft a 1st-option all-star scorer we already have the non prima donna defender next to him. Castle gives us the option of playing Vukcevic as a stretch Big since he rebounds well from the guard position.

If Poole is going to start at PG next season (and beyond) then Castle would indeed be the near perfect compliment….an unselfish “connector” with size and length who defends, passes, rebounds, and doesn’t need the ball to contribute to winning.

[nate33]

I'm confused about Poole's role moving forward. I read here he's more productive/efficient as a 1 and terrible as a 2. Does that mean he's likely our starter at 1 next season?

I'd say, yes.

They clearly value him enough to sit through 50 games of horrific basketball just to rebuild his confidence and try to salvage his value. They're didn't do all that just to relegate him to a bench role next year.

He is young and under contract. They're going to try to develop him further. I don't know if they think he is a long term piece, but I'm confident that they think he is better than what he has shown so far. Maybe they think he will at least become valuable enough to be worth the contract, and therefore tradeable.

As our young guys (Deni, Kispert, Coulibaly) become more capable, we will have less and less of a need to rely on veterans like Kuzma, Tyus and Poole. I figure Tyus is the first to go. Indeed, I think he is gone already. I think Kuzma is next to go since he plays the position of our two best young players. Poole will probably be the last to go, and only after we've acquired some young guard talent to replace him. We don't have that guy yet so Poole is going to be here all next year.

[NatP4]

Jordan Poole should have absolutely ZERO impact on who we pick in the draft.

Also, Marcus Smart at age 20.2: 19.8 points 6.5 rebounds 5.3 assists 0.6 blocks 3.2 steals 2.9 turnovers 55.2% TS 30% from 3, 12.0 BPM.

Tankathon projected him as a 35% 3pt shooter in the NBA. He’s a career 32% 3pt shooter in the NBA.

Castle at age 19.6: 14.8 points 6.2 rebounds 3.9 assists 0.7 blocks 1.1 steals 2.0 turnovers 55.1% TS. 26% from 3. 6.5 BPM

Tankathon projects him as a 33% 3pt shooter in the NBA.

Again, one guy played on a team with 4 other NBA players and a NBA coach. Back to back champions. Other guy was carrying a 29.2 usage rate, dragging a bad team with ZERO future NBA players to the NCAA tournament.

And yes, Marcus Smart also had significantly better numbers(almost the same as his sophomore season) as a Freshman, whenever he was younger than Castle as a Freshman.

[nate33]

And yes, Marcus Smart also had significantly better numbers(almost the same as his sophomore season) as a Freshman, whenever he was younger than Castle as a Freshman.

Marcus Smart's freshman numbers per 36
16.5 points
6.2 rebounds
4.5 assists
0.7 blocks
3.2 steals
3.6 turnovers
.532 TS%
.290 3P%

Castle's freshman numbers per 36:
14.8 points
6.2 rebounds
3.9 assists
0.7 blocks
1.1 steals
2.0 turnovers
.551 TS%
.267 3P%

Their numbers look pretty darn close to me except for Smart's freakishly good steals rate, which is offset by his turnovers. Freshman Smart was a terrible decision-maker who turned the ball over at an unconscionable rate. He also had to shoot a lot more than Castle to get a few more points, but the cost of those extra shot attempts was a notable disparity in TS%.

Beyond that, they're tough to compare due to their role. You correctly point out that Castle has much better teammates. But how is that affecting his numbers? Yeah, his shooting percentages are likely boosted, but his touches are significantly impacted, resulting in fewer assists and shot attempts. And how many rebounds has Clingan taken from him? Ultimately, the championship has to count for something, doesn't it? Castle is clearly a winner.

[nate33]

Jordan Poole should have absolutely ZERO impact on who we pick in the draft.

This part I agree with. I don't see Poole having a role on the Wizards 3 years down the road. However, I do think the team will ultimately be constructed around one quality backcourt scorer not yet acquired, one quality frontcourt scorer not yet acquired, plus Deni and Coulibaly. Since that quality backcourt scorer isn't really available in this draft, I'm okay with finding the "Robin" to our eventual backcourt scorer's "Batman". Poole can stand in as the temporary backcourt scorer, hopefully to be replaced with someone better in the future. But both Poole and our future backcourt scorer would benefit from playing alongside an elite defensive guard who can handle some ball distribution duties. I could see Castle in that role.

[NatP4]

UConn would’ve won that championship without Castle. Yes, he contributed a fair amount, but again, Cam Spencer was one of the best guards in the country last year, same goes for Newton. That’s the best backcourt in the country, paired with the best defensive C in the country, who was a lottery pick last year if he wanted to be, will be a top 7 pick this year. Karaban was a perfect fit as a stretch 4 and is a legit round 1 prospect that will have a long NBA career. They have the best coach in the country who will eventually be a quality NBA head coach(maybe for us?).

Castle came in and played 5th option glue guy role. He was fine, but he literally shot 26% on WIDE OPEN 3s. Like not late closeouts, like disregarded by the defense open. You just can’t compare any of that to Marcus Smart’s role/team situation in college. Smart was half a year younger as a Freshman and a significantly worse team, and still put up better numbers and was a much better player.

Maybe a guy like MKG who played 4th option on an elite Kentucky championship team and put up average production. Being likeable and easy to root for only takes a player so far.

[NatP4]

And I like Castle, and have been higher on him than anyone on the board for parts of the year, I just have shifted from the Smart to SGA spectrum to more of a MKG to Marcus Smart at best spectrum.

[DCZards]

Nate’s comparison of Castle to Smart is a good one.

I believe though that Castle’s superior size (6-7 as compared to 6-3) could result in him becoming a better all-around player than Smart.

[DCZards]

And I like Castle, and have been higher on him than anyone on the board for parts of the year, I just have shifted from the Smart to SGA spectrum to more of a MKG to Marcus Smart at best spectrum.

MKG had a terrible hitch in his shot that was obvious to everyone…but some thought could be fixed. You don’t see anything like that with Castle.

[Dat2U]

I don't think Bilal can or should play SG. His ideal position is PF. And Kispert is a better option at SG anyway.

Defense. Upside. I'm erring on both in this case.

Long term Coulibaly is a 3. I don't see the frame to play the 4 extensively anytime soon although he's certainly switchable 1-4.

But next season I like Coulibaly & Avdija as our main wings provided we go big or guard in the draft. You have two long, athletic switchable defenders to cover up Poole or whoever we draft. Add a defensive C and suddenly you have an NBA caliber unit capable of getting stops.

This is also contingent on Kuz being here as they don't seem to be in a rush to move him nor is he pushing to leave. Ideally you move Kuz for an SG at some point in the near future and you can slide Deni & Bilal into their natural positions at the 3 & 4.

[nate33]

This is also contingent on Kuz being here as they don't seem to be in a rush to move him nor is he pushing to leave. Ideally you move Kuz for an SG at some point in the near future and you can slide Deni & Bilal into their natural positions at the 3 & 4.

I think the clock is ticking on Kuzma's value. Right now, he is in the sweet spot with three years left on his deal and the most expensive year of that contract already paid off. I think he will remain valuable throughout the 2024-25 season, but by 2025, his value will start to drop as his contract starts to get short. Teams don't trade much for a rental.

I'm feeling pretty confident that Kuzma will be moved next year. The real question is, will it happen this summer or at the next Trade Deadline? I think there's room for Kuzma as part of a 3-forward rotation alongside Avdija and Coulibaly, but only if Coulibaly still isn't quite ready for prime time. If Coulibaly looks like a plus player early into next season, then Kuzma should be traded ASAP.

I'd be looking to trade him for picks rather than a good shooting guard. We have to tank next year so let's not try and fill holes.