payitforward wrote:I wasn't sure where to put this super-interesting youtube video. This might be a good spot. It's a thoughtful, well-argued & well-presented, deep dive into a point nate makes quite often & compellingly: the death of the power forward. Enjoy:
Well-reasoned, and about 3 years out of date. Missing the refs rules emphasis that has shifted the league away from the pace & space era.
The East is going Big. Consider the standings in the EC. The Celtics top the win column. Their offseason acquisition was to get bigger, adding a skilled 7+ footer and shipping out their 6'3" defensive guard. They start the game with Tatum at PF, true, but have played significant minutes with both Horford and Porzingis. Five of their top 10 most used lines have a 2-big front court.
The Bucks and Cavs both run a 2 big front. The Bucks back up Giannis with the 6'11" Bobby Portis playing over 25 minutes a game. The Cavs have parlayed their two 7 footers to a top ranked defense. New York plays PF Randle heavy minutes next to the 7 foot Robinson and Hartenstein who freely rotate in and out of the game. The 250lb Randle notably is taking far fewer 3pters this year scoring a significantly larger portion of his buckets inside of 10 feet. Philly has Embiid, who practically counts as two bigs by himself, and is one of the drivers of teams going big in the EC. Maybe they fit the mold described here since Harris has always played smallish for a traditional PF. Embiid simply needs more space than anyone else though, and by himself fills the lane at either end.
In my read, the West still hasn't fully committed to the Bigness or adjusted to the post Warriors era. Jokic brings an impossible x-factor to the equation, for which there really isn't a counter. (My feeling is you might as well go Big on him and let him pitch it from outside). The Lakers play Big, but aren't playing great. The Clips are riding multiple Hall of Famers and hoping to over-talent everyone to death. Likewise the Suns. I think they both fail in the playoffs, you never know. But OKC tops the standings out of nowhere, solely by adding a skilled 7'4" rookie defender who averages a ridiculous number of blocks per game. The W's lose thier X-factor in Draymond, and have discovered instead they need rookie TJD who plays a traditional low post game.
I've said it for a while. Biggitude is coming back. If teams can no longer rack up cheap fouls against opponents with a dribble-drive attack, and defenders can play close against a 3pt shooter without fear of cheap whistles, it becomes harder to score. So high percentage interior scoring becomes more valuable. Yes spacing matters, if you can add an outside scoring Big you have an option, a weapon, and can play a motion offense around that guy to free up lanes for that interior scoring. That's nice. It's an option.
But when finesse and motion break down it is still seriously valuable to have a guy you can pound the ball to down low who can finish despite contact. It's why to my mind a guy like Zach Edey is going to be undervalued wherever he is picked. He defends the interior with his immensity, and is unstoppable at the other end. Catches with huge soft hands above the traffic. Defends with angles and length but never fouls. Is unmovable when he has position.
Which means a true point guard becomes more valuable, if they can get that guy the ball. And why I expect at some point tall passers will be the next coveted position. Why I think Pop is trying so hard to develop Jeremy Sochan in the role. You want guys who can pass over the traffic to the big, with entry passes or lobs for easy dunks. So the role that might be deemphasized is not the shooting guard, but the small PG. The dribble-drive ball-handling guard who stalls the ball outside the arc. If he can't get the ball to the big then you won't need him. You'll still want that strong 6'6"+ guard who can ignore contact and finish despite the foul. That guy is going to get the whistles on their behalf. The 2-3 swingman is still useful. As is any big who can score, at either position.
My feeling is what teams will really want over the next era are long strong forwards who can pass well and finish through contact. A team of 1-3 swingman hybrids. And a giant switchable 4-5 front line that deters interior attacks. But its the little guy that teams can just shoot over that's going to become more and more of a liability, unless they've got that Dame/Stef Curry range. Or if you get one that's remarkably good at delivering the ball to the interior Big. And even then.
If you were building a team from scratch you'd pick the 6'5" PG Haliburton over either Dame or Trae Young or Kyrie Irving. You want the guy who doesn't get smothered up by defense. Because it's still a game of Bigness. Everybody trying to get close to that 10 foot hoop. Some guys just start with the advantage of not having to jump to get there.
