The Rookies of 2023-4

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Right now, Lively looks to have been a better pick than Bilal Coulibaly.
How about Jett Howard over Lively...?

You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.

[AFM]

Just curious PIF. Why do you think NBA execs don’t operate this way? You almost never see trade downs for more picks.

[pcbothwel]

Right now, Lively looks to have been a better pick than Bilal Coulibaly.
How about Jett Howard over Lively...?

You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.

Lively does not project to be better than Bilal. You keep falling into the same trap with low usage guys.
Was Obi Toppin and Okongwu a better pick than Anthony Edward’s after their rookie year?
What about Jaxson Hayes over Garland & Coby White?

Yes, Lively looks like a really good player. But you don’t take Jarrett Allen over Paul George. And rim running bigs always have the advantage of blocking a few shots and catching a few lobs to make their efficiency look great. But how does that project to create wins.

It’s like picking a guard or running back in the top 10 of the NFL draft, and acting like it’s great value because they performed better than the rookie QB.
Positional value matters.

[payitforward]

Just curious PIF. Why do you think NBA execs don’t operate this way? You almost never see trade downs for more picks.

?
Every draft trade is a "trade down." & every draft trade is also a trade "up," of course.

When we traded up a spot to take Bilal, Indy traded down a spot.

in 2020, to take a single example, there were over 20 draft-night trades. Of course, some were for futures but most moved one team up & another down that very night. About the same number in '21, '22 & '23.

[payitforward]

Right now, Lively looks to have been a better pick than Bilal Coulibaly.
How about Jett Howard over Lively...?

You understand, I assume, that it's the same thing every year. & I do mean every single draft. Pick a year at random & confirm it for yourself.

Lively does not project to be better than Bilal. You keep falling into the same trap with low usage guys.
Was Obi Toppin and Okongwu a better pick than Anthony Edward’s after their rookie year?
What about Jaxson Hayes over Garland & Coby White?

Yes, Lively looks like a really good player. But you don’t take Jarrett Allen over Paul George. And rim running bigs always have the advantage of blocking a few shots and catching a few lobs to make their efficiency look great. But how does that project to create wins.

It’s like picking a guard or running back in the top 10 of the NFL draft, and acting like it’s great value because they performed better than the rookie QB.
Positional value matters.

Lot of issues to straighten out here.

1. I would have taken Bilal where we took him. I.e. over Lively. I'm not criticizing anyone, just pointing out how well Derrick Lively is playing right now.

2. I assume you don't need me to define the phrase, "right now."

3. In other words, neither you nor I has any idea of how good either Lively or Bilal will be long-term. If I could predict the future, I'd turn to the stock market instead of fooling around with the NBA !!

4. Like Lively, Bilal is a "low usage guy."

5. Your point about Edwards is empty:
a. Picks 1-3 have a higher success rate long term -- different from later picks. It's just a fact, & I don't question established facts.
b. Even so, right now I'd take Tyrese Haliburton (#12 pick) over Edwards every day & twice on Sunday.

For that matter, you tell me: would you rather have Pat Williams, who went #4 that year, or would you rather have Desmond Bane? He went at 30. Or Immanuel Quickley? #25. Give me Isaiah Joe (49) over Killian Hayes (7). Same every year -- Aaron Wiggins was the 55th pick in '21 -- he's been better than 11 or 12 of the top 15 picks that year.

6. Which makes your point about Hayes vs. Garland empty as well, since the latter went at 5 & is better than RJ Barrett & DeAndre Hunter who were picked at 3 & 4 the same night.

7. "Positional value" in NFL football is utterly unrelated to basketball -- & you know it! Your list of the 10 best players in the NBA today, like my list, would be extremely likely to include at least one player at every single position.

As to the question of what might "project to wins," the answer couldn't be more straightforward. A made basket has the same statistical effect towards a win no matter who scores it. Ditto a rebound, an assist, & a steal. Ditto, in the other direction, a missed FGA, a turnover, a foul, etc. & these values can be calculated (& have been - repeatedly).

In a nutshell, wins come from two things & two things only: number of possessions of the ball & scoring efficiency in those possessions (always compared to your opponent, obviously). It's simple arithmetic, & nothing else counts. Period. That's obvious, right?

[pcbothwel]

PIF... I am NOT talking about draft position. I am talking about the fact that you use isolated stats for players in limited roles and extrapolate them.
You did this with Otto Porter, Jarrett Allen, etc. Lively is another example.
You did your elongated rundown of a per possession analysis of what Allen provides and determined he was a great player. My rebuttal then, and now, is the same. If you have 5 Rim Running Centers on the floor at the same time (Allen, Gafford, Lively, etc.), their advanced stats will PLUMMET. Because these guys dont dribble a ball more than 4 times a game or take a shot that outside 5 ft.
When a big scores off lobs and putbacks, his efficiency will be in the 60-70 TS range. When he plays next to the rim on both ends of the court, he will gather rebounds. When he doesnt dribble, create, or pass... he wont turn the ball over.

There is a reason the Gobert trade was viewed laughably and gets ran off the court in the playoffs. There is a reason that Valanciunas does NOTHING in terms of adding wins despite his amazing efficiency and rebounding.

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PIF ...you use isolated stats for players in limited roles and extrapolate them.
You did this with... Jarrett Allen, etc. Lively is another example....

...You did your elongated rundown of a per possession analysis of what Allen provides and determined he was a great player. My rebuttal then, and now, is the same. If you have 5 Rim Running Centers on the floor at the same time (Allen, Gafford, Lively, etc.), their advanced stats will PLUMMET.

How about if we have 5 point guards on the floor at the same time? Their stats will plummet too.

You tell how good a Center is by comparing him to other Centers. Jarrett Allen is a terrific NBA player because he is a terrific Center! -- above average as a scorer, above average on the miscellaneous stats (steals, TOs, assists, fouls, & blocks), & an outstanding rebounder.

If you're suggesting that Lively winding up as good as Jarrett Allen will indicate that he's nothing special, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

...When a big scores off lobs and putbacks, his efficiency will be in the 60-70 TS range. When he plays next to the rim on both ends of the court, he will gather rebounds. When he doesnt dribble, create, or pass... he wont turn the ball over....

Sure! & that's why we can't compare stats for e.g. a SG & a C directly to determine which one is better. We have to compare guys at the same position.

There is a reason the Gobert trade was viewed laughably and gets ran off the court in the playoffs. There is a reason that Valanciunas does NOTHING in terms of adding wins despite his amazing efficiency and rebounding.

In his prime, Valanciunas was a very very good player. He's fallen off significantly -- tho he's still not bad.

In general, there are two ways of "adding wins."

1. You can be an efficient scorer -- which increases your team's overall TS%. Obviously, how much your high TS% helps the team's record will depend on your usage.

2. You can have a positive effect on your team's overall number of possessions per game (i.e. by increasing your team's opportunities to score the ball).

You do understand the facts behind the above, right? I.e. the fact that if you have either a higher TS% or more chances to score (i.e. FGAs plus 1/2 FTAs) than your opponent in a game, it's possible for you to win that game. If you have both, it's impossible to lose the game. If you have neither, it's impossible to win that game.

It's simple math. There are NO exceptions. Zero. Period.

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This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

[Jay81]

This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

Let me guess. Bilal has been amongst the worst

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

The TJ-D for GS’s trash trade is enough for me to wonder about our Dawkins Winger dream team

[closg00]

Always fun content, 2023 has been a great draft class so-far.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

The TJ-D for GS’s trash trade is enough for me to wonder about our Dawkins Winger dream team

But, it wasn't "TJ-D" for Baldwin. It was the #57 pick for Baldwin! & there were only 58 picks.

In other words, even if we liked TJ-D, we were only rolling the dice on two picks! He might well have still been there.

Keep in mind as well that we also had the #35 pick, which we traded to the Bulls. TBH, *that* was the move I didn't understand.

Plus, this has nothing to do with "our Dawkins Winger dream team."

After all, Jackson-Davis has been one of the very best rookies this year, yet every single team passed on him. Most teams passed on him twice!

[NatP4]

I still can’t believe Scoot was picked before the Thompson twins. There’s just no comparison between them.

[payitforward]

This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

Let me guess. Bilal has been amongst the worst

Bilal started off strong, but he's fallen way off. I wouldn't call him one of the worst, but he hasn't been very good overall.

OTOH, come on... he just turned 19, he's just learning the NBA game, & he's 4th in minutes among all '23 draft picks!

[dckingsfan]

This year's rookie class has been really terrific overall -- a whole lot of these kids are performing at an extremely high level!

As is usually the case, how well they're playing doesn't have a high correlation with where they were picked -- although both of the Thompson twins have been very good & -- no surprise -- Wembenyana has been coming on like gangbusters lately.

Two of the three most notable rookies, to me, are Trayce Jackson-Davis & Brandon Podziemski, both of whom have been absolutely fantastic so far. Maybe GS has regained its draft-day mojo?

Dereck Lively & Cason Wallace remain in the top handful of '23 rookies. Ditto Jaquez.

Let me guess. Bilal has been amongst the worst

Bilal started off strong, but he's fallen way off. I wouldn't call him one of the worst, but he hasn't been very good overall.

OTOH, come on... he just turned 19, he's just learning the NBA game, & he's 4th in minutes among all '23 draft picks!

Yep and he already has two skills 3 & D. Now it is about if he picks up other skills and strengthens his body both seem very likely.

[penbeast0]

And improves both his 3 (under 35%) and his D (amazing highlight plays mixed with rookie mistakes). I agree he has not been impressive as a starter, also that he is young and a work in progress. We all hope he turns into a star but it's a long way from a certainty.

[tontoz]

Last game Bilal did something I haven't seen from him before. He drove into the lane, stopped and put up a fake, then scored on a floater. Baby steps I guess.

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Let's talk about Bilal in his thread.
Use this one to talk about the rest of the rookies -- the draft class overall has been really outstanding. Best in many years.