The Rookies of 2023-4

payitforward · Post #1 » by **payitforward** » Wed Dec 20, 2023 4:24 pm

With the season almost 1/3 over, I'm interested in taking a look at how this year's class of NBA rookies is faring. It goes without saying that 26-7 games does not predict a young player's future, but still....

Of course, the first question must be about Wemby -- the truth is that, overall, he hasn't been good yet. Why? Because he takes a lot of shots but misses too many of them. Plus, he also turns the ball over a whole lot.

So who among the rookies has played well?

Well, of the guys drafted this year -- who've played 200+ minutes -- the best so far seem to be Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively II, Brandon Podziemski, Ausar Thompson, Bilal, & Jaime Jaquez Jr. Plus, Chet Holmgren, drafted last year obviously, has been terrific. It's also worth mentioning Andre Jackson Jr, picked at 36, & Craig Porter Jr, who went undrafted. Both have been quite good.

Trayce Jackson-Davis would be on the list for sure but he's played 161 minutes at current writing.

The biggest "surprises" among these guys -- in the sense of playing well above their pick position, as it were -- are Lively, Podziemski & Jaquez. Plus, obviously, Jackson & Porter. Both Lively & Podziemski had strong support on the Board, btw.

Note that there are 3 "Jr"s & a "II" on the list -- it's a trend!

It's great to see a Wizards pick on the list of winners!

pancakes3 · Post #2 » by **pancakes3** » Wed Dec 20, 2023 4:56 pm

I think Wemby's doing pretty darn well. Averaging 19/11/3. Agree that his percentages are in the toilet, and yes he turns the ball over a lot, but those are superstar criticisms being levied against a 20 year old rookie who's the focal point of opposing defenses.

Lebron shot 41/29/75 (49% TS) as a [dominant] rookie compared to Wemby's 43/28/78 (52% TS).

Also, Chet's team is MUCH better. You put Wemby on OKC, and those TO's will be cut in half.

Valid criticism that Wemby's taking way too many 3's though. He should not be attempting 5 3PA/game; not when he's shooting 28%, not when he's only taking 4 FTA/game. He'd sniff 25ppg if he committed to the post and stayed off the perimeter. Embiid only takes 5 more FGA than Wemby, and is only shooting 3 3PA/game, and shoots 11 FTA. Self-proclaimed greatest big man shooter ever KAT only takes 4.7 3PA, and is averaging more points on fewer shots. But again, that's on the superstar curve. Wemby, on the rookie curve, is doing excellent, imo. Far and away the best player, and the only blue chip, surefire HOF, generational talent in the draft.

I like Holmgren, Brandon Miller didn't bust as hard as I thought, Scoot is NOT the next coming of Dwyane Wade, and Miami does it again by finding a diamond in the rough in Jaime Jaquez.

I can't comment on Lively as he went to Duke, except maybe I'll say that he looks to have a brighter future than Shelden Williams, and I like what Ausar Thompson (and Amen too) is doing but they're going to be journeymen like the Morris twins.

Also you left out Keyonte George, who's play a lot better than anyone expected.

payitforward · Post #3 » by **payitforward** » Wed Dec 20, 2023 5:15 pm

I wasn't criticizing Wembenyana; why would I? I was just reporting facts.

How is what Lebron or anyone else did as a rookie is relevant to Wemby?

The idea that a rookie on a better team usually plays better than a rookie on a worse team is, simply, not true.

How can you "like what ...Amen... is doing"? He's barely played!

I don't know what you mean by KGeorge playing "a lot better than anyone expected," btw -- he's been very bad indeed!
Maybe you had lower expectations than would normally go w/ a mid-R1 pick...?

PerkinsFor3 · Post #4 » by **PerkinsFor3** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 10:59 pm

payitforward wrote:I wasn't criticizing Wembenyana; why would I? I was just reporting facts.

How is what Lebron or anyone else did as a rookie is relevant to Wemby?

The idea that a rookie on a better team usually plays better than a rookie on a worse team is, simply, not true.

How can you "like what ...Amen... is doing"? He's barely played!

I don't know what you mean by KGeorge playing "a lot better than anyone expected," btw -- he's been very bad indeed!
Maybe you had lower expectations than would normally go w/ a mid-R1 pick...?

Keyonte George has been bad? How many games did you see him play? He has been really good!

AFM · Post #5 » by **AFM** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:19 am

I mean, his stats are absolutely abysmal. Doesn't mean he can't turn it around, he's very young.

payitforward · Post #6 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 2:16 am

PerkinsFor3 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...I don't know what you mean by KGeorge playing "a lot better than anyone expected," btw -- he's been very bad indeed!...

Keyonte George has been bad? How many games did you see him play? He has been really good!

Keyonte George is not my enemy. I don't have it in for him. He is a one and done kid who has been asked to do a whole lot as an NBA rookie who only turned 20 six weeks ago!

In his favor is the fact that he gets to the line a lot & shoots FTs well.

Good thing, as he shoots the 2 at 40.7% & the 3 at 32% -- with the result that even buoyed up by his .781 FT% on 4.75 FTAs per 40 minutes, he still has only a .500 TS%. He also turns the ball over a whole lot. & there's nothing else positive to point to in his numbers.

Does this mean that Keyonte George is a bust? A failure? OF COURSE NOT!

All it means is that in the first 1/3 of his first season in the NBA, he hasn't been good. When we point out the rookies who've played really well so far, his name doesn't come up.

9 and 20 · Post #7 » by **9 and 20** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:08 am

This guy might be decent -

Read on Twitter

payitforward · Post #8 » by **payitforward** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:22 am

Decent?

Chet has been terrific.

If we just look at rookies who've played reasonably big minutes so far -- say 400 or more -- the guys who are looking quite good are Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively, Brandin Podziemski, Chet Holmgren, Bilal (!), Ausar Thompson, & Jaime Jaquez.

Overall, every one of those guys is already producing at an above average level for an NBA player at his position.

Note that Bilal is a year younger than the youngest of the others on that list. He has a really high ceiling -- gonna be a tremendous NBA player. Already a good one.

AFM · Post #9 » by **AFM** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:33 am

Honestly I love seeing a dude who looks like a total dork ball out like crazy, I'm a huge fan already.

Kanyewest · Post #10 » by **Kanyewest** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:34 am

Wemby should take a lesson from Chet and start throwing alley oops to himself

closg00 · Post #11 » by **closg00** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:33 pm

Trae Young over Luka, I wonder if Orlando fans are doing what-if's on Chet. Pablo is solid, but Chet is on another level.

Post #12 » by **nate33** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 5:54 pm

closg00 wrote:Trae Young over Luka, I wonder if Orlando fans are doing what-if's on Chet. Pablo is solid, but Chet is on another level.

I don't think Orlando fans are too disappointed. Paolo projects to be a legit #1 scoring option and playmaker, which is what they need most. Chet strikes me as more of a #2 option and defensive anchor, which is perfect for OKC who has SGA. Ultimately, I think both parties are pretty happy.

I'm also leery of Chet's durability.

FAH1223 · Post #13 » by **FAH1223** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:45 pm

Funny thing with Wemby is that his shooting g percentages would be higher if his Spurs teammates passed him the ball for easy buckets.

Sochan, Branham, Johnson are the main culprits. Their lack of court awareness is hilariously bad! Wemby cuts open and they jack a dumb shot.

FAH1223 · Post #14 » by **FAH1223** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:19 am

Read on Twitter

NatP4 · Post #15 » by **NatP4** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 1:13 pm

Gradey Dick shot 28% in 200+ NBA minutes, got sent to the G-league where he is shooting 32% in 240+ minutes.

Yikes

Post #16 » by **nate33** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:57 pm

NatP4 wrote:Gradey Dick shot 28% in 200+ NBA minutes, got sent to the G-league where he is shooting 32% in 240+ minutes.

Yikes

Interesting. Kispert was really bad his first 25 games (20% from 3 IIRC) but then everything clicked and he immediately became an efficient off-ball scorer. Dick has a similar style game, but he is younger and less physically strong. It might take him a bit longer, but I wouldn't count him out yet.

NatP4 · Post #17 » by **NatP4** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 7:42 pm

Podziemski is now playing 23 mpg for GS. Per36: 14.0 points 8.6 rebounds 4.7 assists 1.6 steals 2.2 turnovers 56.4% TS.

Home run pick at 19.

dobrojim · Post #18 » by **dobrojim** » Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:12 pm

Black with a monster game last night. That said, it was against us but his matchup was Tyus.

Endless Loop · Post #19 » by **Endless Loop** » Wed Dec 27, 2023 8:35 pm

dobrojim wrote:Black with a monster game last night. That said, it was against us but his matchup was Tyus.

He had 5 turnovers and 1 assist, and is listed as a point guard.

dobrojim · Post #20 » by **dobrojim** » Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:47 am

Endless Loop wrote:
dobrojim wrote:Black with a monster game last night. That said, it was against us but his matchup was Tyus.

He had 5 turnovers and 1 assist, and is listed as a point guard.

I'd agree that those numbers are bad especially for as supposed PG.
Watching the game in person, I was less aware of the TOs and more aware
of the fact he went 9-13 FG, 4-6 3s, 23 pts on 13 FGAs. He also had 6 reb
and 4 steals. Very good game except for the TOs.