Official Trade Thread Part XLVI

[gesa2]

3 likely lottery picks for Deni meets my definition of “bowled over”. I’d still have to think hard about the likelihood of any of them being really good picks. Who has that to offer and would?

[nate33]

3 likely lottery picks for Deni meets my definition of “bowled over”. I’d still have to think hard about the likelihood of any of them being really good picks. Who has that to offer and would?

Yeah, nobody has 3 lottery picks to trade. OKC's future picks after 2024 actually look pretty mediocre. They own a few picks and swaps from Houston and the Clippers who could conceivably slip up and miss the playoffs in the future but I wouldn't count on it. Other than that, their picks are from reliably good teams (Denver, Dallas) or they are protected (Miami, Philly). Basically, you need to bet on a big injury for one of their future picks to pan out in the high lottery.

At the very least, if we were trading for OKC picks, I'd demand their best pick available from the 2024, 2025 and 2026 drafts. That would end up landing us a late lotto in 2024 (UTA or HOU), a mid first in 2025 (best of MIA, PHI, HOU, LAC, OKC, with MIA and PHI having protection), and a mid-to-late first in 2026 (best of HOU, LAC, OKC). I still don't like it though.

[9 and 20]

OKC has a lot of picks, including 2 lotto picks this year. Houston is young and pretty good and they have a lot of picks. They'd probably be mid-first rounders, borderline lottery. Houston has a lot of forwards though so maybe some combination of players and picks.

Deni being young, on the upswing, and signed to a super cheap deal makes him a really good trade piece and I bet that's appealing to the guys in charge now.

[penbeast0]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

[nate33]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

No. Not even remotely tempting. I really think Deni might be more valuable than the #1 pick in this draft. Surely, there will be 1 or 2 guys picked in the top 5 who will end up better than Deni, but I think it's pretty likely that 2 or 3 of the guys picked in the top 5 will have a worse career than Deni. I don't like those odds. Deni gives you no risk (it's a sure bet he's a starter on a winning team) and he will be paid roughly what a high lotto pick gets paid for just as long. And as an added bonus, there's no developmental period. Deni is good to go next year. Any rookie we draft will probably suck for the first 2 years of his rookie contract before he even approaches Deni's level of production.

[penbeast0]

I agree that Deni is better in the first year or two but (a) that's good for the tank and (b) the chance of catching lightning in a barrel is higher with the draft choice. I'd probably do either deal; dealing them both for the 1st pick is a lot riskier and I would probably say no.

[nate33]

I agree that Deni is better in the first year or two but (a) that's good for the tank and (b) the chance of catching lightning in a barrel is higher with the draft choice. I'd probably do either deal; dealing them both for the 1st pick is a lot riskier and I would probably say no.

We don't need anything that is "good for the tank". We are as good for the tank as it gets already! There is a 0% chance that we finish outside the bottom 3 next year. If you want a little more insurance, then don't resign Tyus.

At the very least, save this move for Summer 2025 when we have to worry about our 2025-26 season being good enough that we have to convey our 2026 pick to the Knicks. In that scenario, at least we are trading for a high pick in a stronger draft.

[9 and 20]

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[dckingsfan]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

No. Not even remotely tempting. I really think Deni might be more valuable than the #1 pick in this draft. Surely, there will be 1 or 2 guys picked in the top 5 who will end up better than Deni, but I think it's pretty likely that 2 or 3 of the guys picked in the top 5 will have a worse career than Deni. I don't like those odds. Deni gives you no risk (it's a sure bet he's a starter on a winning team) and he will be paid roughly what a high lotto pick gets paid for just as long. And as an added bonus, there's no developmental period. Deni is good to go next year. Any rookie we draft will probably suck for the first 2 years of his rookie contract before he even approaches Deni's level of production.

Agreed. But if OKC gave us the 9th & 11th picks (and other future compensation - the key), I would be tempted (if the guys you want were still on the board). Just saying... I could see an offer that the FO would consider.

[QMemphis]

Grizz offer 2024 1st /Salary for Deni Adviji. What realistically would it take to get this deal done.

[TGW]

Grizz offer 2024 1st /Salary for Deni Adviji. What realistically would it take to get this deal done.

About two more unprotected FRPS maybe. Even then, I'd say no.

[9 and 20]

Grizz offer 2024 1st /Salary for Deni Adviji. What realistically would it take to get this deal done.

Wiz were asking for 2 first rounders for Kuzma, and apparently had an offer from Dallas of 2 mediocre-ish picks and still didn't make the trade. So for Avdija, more than that?

[TGW]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

Hell no. Have you done any research on this draft, or are you allured by the thought of the #1 pick? This draft is similar to the 2013 draft where there was no clear #1 and Anthony Bennett was taken first (and we took Porter at #3).

[QMemphis]

Grizz offer 2024 1st /Salary for Deni Adviji. What realistically would it take to get this deal done.

Wiz were asking for 2 first rounders for Kuzma, and apparently had an offer from Dallas of 2 mediocre-ish picks and still didn't make the trade. So for Avdija, more than that?

Our pick is a top 6 pick which alone is better than anything Dallas offered. But I would add a 25 unprotected and Santi Aldama.

[penbeast0]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

Hell no. Have you done any research on this draft, or are you allured by the thought of the #1 pick? This draft is similar to the 2013 draft where there was no clear #1 and Anthony Bennett was taken first (and we took Porter at #3).

And a healthy Otto Porter getting paid reasonably is a very good NBA player. The problem was (a) someone decided to offer him a star contract (we dodged a bullet on that with Deni; it was one of my fears last year), and (b) he then has been injured consistently. Bennett was a bust, no question but there's always that chance that your pick is the guy you build around and a top pick, even in this draft, has that possibility. Certainly not a sure thing but a chance.

[Frichuela]

Grizz offer 2024 1st /Salary for Deni Adviji. What realistically would it take to get this deal done.

Wiz were asking for 2 first rounders for Kuzma, and apparently had an offer from Dallas of 2 mediocre-ish picks and still didn't make the trade. So for Avdija, more than that?

Our pick is a top 6 pick which alone is better than anything Dallas offered. But I would add a 25 unprotected and Santi Aldama.

For your 6-9th 2024 pick + Aldama + fodder (Kennard?), the Wizards are happy to offer Kuzma. Deni ain’t for sale.

[payitforward]

Someone gets the #1 pick (Detroit) that isn't convinced the players available are worth it.

Would you deal Avdija for it? Coulibaly? Both?

Hell no. Have you done any research on this draft, or are you allured by the thought of the #1 pick? This draft is similar to the 2013 draft where there was no clear #1 and Anthony Bennett was taken first (and we took Porter at #3).

Is there such a thing as "sour-cherry-picking?"

Every draft is a terrible draft. & every draft is a terrific draft. I imagine you might think 2012 was a good draft, for example. But, compare R1 from 7 to 30 in both years. 2013 was a far better R1 overall. Not to mention that the best player in both those drafts was taken at #15 in 2013.

For that matter the guys taken from 21-30 in 2013 played almost 3 times as many NBA minutes as the ones taken in 2012 -- in 1 less year, btw, so the difference is continuing to grow.

There are no bad drafts; there are only bad picks.

To put it another way, suppose I'd been able to trade my #1 pick in 2013 for the numbers 12, 15, 27 & 50 in the same draft. How would I have done?

Spoiler:

In case you have "forgotten," those guys would be Steven Adams, Giannis Antetekounmpo, Rudy Gobert, & James Ennis. Combined to play 82000 NBA minutes so far. Pretty high quality minutes too, I'd say. & the total is growing. Average pick position of those four guys is #26, btw.

[payitforward]

Wiz were asking for 2 first rounders for Kuzma, and apparently had an offer from Dallas of 2 mediocre-ish picks and still didn't make the trade. So for Avdija, more than that?

Our pick is a top 6 pick which alone is better than anything Dallas offered. But I would add a 25 unprotected and Santi Aldama.

For your 6-9th 2024 pick + Aldama + fodder (Kennard?), the Wizards are happy to offer Kuzma. Deni ain’t for sale.

Of course Deni's "for sale!" Every player is available for a trade if the deal is right.

& there's no reason to be unpleasant either. For that matter, no one in his right mind would offer a 6-9th pick plus Santi Aldama & Kennard for Kyle Kuzma.

We should be happy that people are interested in Deni. It's a good thing! -- would you have turned down QMemphis's offer a year ago?

I didn't think so....

[payitforward]

Wiz were asking for 2 first rounders for Kuzma, and apparently had an offer from Dallas of 2 mediocre-ish picks and still didn't make the trade. So for Avdija, more than that?

Our pick is a top 6 pick which alone is better than anything Dallas offered. But I would add a 25 unprotected and Santi Aldama....

The Wizards have just begun a ground-up rebuilding process, hence draft capital goes in the right direction.

Let me ask you this: if you had Deni & we had Aldama & the pick you have -- would you make the trade you're suggesting?

Would you want that #6-9 pick in the 2024 draft so much, & would you want Santi Aldama bad enough as well, that you'd be willing to give up Deni Avdija (who's pretty clearly breaking out big time & has just signed a high-value long-term contract) to get that pick & Aldama?

Nah, I didn't think so. & I don't think your extremely clever FO would either.

IOW, I think you're too smart to make that trade. We are too. &, sadly, I don't think an unknown-value 2025 R1 pick would move the needle.

...What realistically would it take to get this deal done?

See above: "a ground-up rebuilding process." Deni just turned 23, plenty young enough to be a key part of that process.

I really don't think there's a "realistic" deal. Not one I can see at least....

[penbeast0]

How about the same deal but with Giddey and the 2 picks for Deni (and maybe Tyus for Aldama)?