Where I thought we would be / where we are

[badinage]

I had thought, going into the season:

* that Poole was going to have a breakout, and be akin to Harden
* that they would win 26-28 games
* that Coulibaly would have a pretty bad rookie year, but with some flashes
* that Deni would take a leap: 15, 7, 3
* that Kuz would have been traded by now

The positives, coming out of 23-24:

* Dawkins found 3 rotation players. 3. I wasn’t expecting that.
* Vukcevic is a revelation. I imagined a stiff who could shoot. A Bertans. But: he can pass! He can drive! He has bounce! He has a knack! Super exciting future.
* Butler might be something. He might prove to be one of those PGs who figures it out later than most, a la Chauncey Billups.
* Deni didn’t take a leap; he took a major leap. And he didn’t do it by becoming a selfish player. His bully balling, his ballhandling, his shooting from range, his middy game (!) … it’s impressive, and he’s still only 23.
* Coulibaly needs work, but I would say he showed more than flashes, until he hit the rookie wall. The defense is going to be even better, and if he can get stronger and learn to tighten his handle, he’s going to be a player.
* Keefe has shown me something. Many somethings. Not saying he’s Spoelstra, but you can tell he’s prepared and he thinks the game, and you can also tell the players listen.
* We have 2 first-rounders to add. If Dawkins hits big on 1, that turbo-charges the rebuild. If he doesn’t hit big on either, but both turn out to be good, rotational pieces, also good.
* They have a player, Kuz, who can be used to acquire more draft capital.

Overall:

They’re not as good on paper as I would have thought they would be at this point. And of course, what I envisioned turned out to be very wrong. But they’re actually in better shape, foundationally. There’s a pretty good base for going forward — better than I had feared.

[Zonkerbl]

My brother was visiting for the eclipse and likes to follow sports so he listened to a Wizards podcast (because he knows I still follow them) out of curiosity. He was surprised they were just talking about normal NBA stuff (this asset is better/worse than expected, maybe we could improve if we made x trade) instead of the elephant in the room, that the Wizards are arguably the worst NBA franchise in the history of the NBA and will never, ever break 50 wins. I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

Cleveland is a city of 300,000 people and has a franchise better than DC's, even without LeBron. The DMV has what, 8 million people? And hasn't sniffed home court advantage in the playoffs in literally decades? Inexcusable.

[pancakes3]

Oh, given the age of our franchise coupled with the on-court performance and apathetic fan base, I think we're comfortably the worst franchise in the league.

[payitforward]

Let's take this thread back to its original purpose: essentially, the question badinage raises by way of his first comment is this:

Given what was possible to accomplish in the first year of a rebuild, how did Winger & Dawkins do?

1. I'm not judging them based on Poole's implosion. No one could have predicted it.
2. The Beal trade was terrific, absolutely terrific -- even though it''ll be some years before we see the benefits in R2 picks & R1 pick swaps.
3. Neither Coulibaly nor Vukcevic can be called a sure thing, b/c no draft pick is that. But, they both look to have been outstanding choices.
4. Trading Gafford for a R1 pick was a solid move given our timeline.
5. The one seemingly glaring error was failing to take a chance on Trayce Jackson-Davis, i.e. exchanging the pick for Baldwin. Yet... I probably would have done the same thing.
6. My only other question was why Dawkins traded the #35 pick rather than adding another rookie. OTOH, they did get two r2 picks for that one pick, so it might turn out to be a fine decision.

In short, I could not have predicted a better first year of work than Winger & Dawkins turned in. As far as "where we are" considered in terms of wins... I don't really care. I'm not looking at that.

[penbeast0]

I think even Wes Jr did fine in what I saw was the key to the year, player development. Deni took a huge leap, Kispert upped his usage without lessening his efficiency much, Coulibaly developed as well as could be expected. Those are much of what I was looking for. I pushed Butler all year but he didn't get to play until Tyus got injured which was after Keefe took over. I don't think there was much defensive development; Deni was a good defender last year and I didn't see Kuzma, Poole, Tyus, or Kispert playing well there.

I thought player acquisition was fine, though not outstanding. The brain trust did a great job getting something for Beal, a poor job getting value for Porzingis and Morris, they are still on the hook for thinking that Poole was a good but overpaid player, so far he's been bad but overpaid, they did a great job getting something for nothing from Detroit for Gallo, a decent return for Gafford, were unable to come up with a trade for Tyus that kept us from losing him for nothing in free agency so we will see if we can sign or sign and trade him. Mixed bag with the Beal deal pushing it positive.

Overall, I have no problem with the miserable record. I expected and even hoped for it and think we developed some of our players despite playing so badly. The key will be whether we can draft a star, if not all the incremental good things won't matter. The second key is whether we can develop a team defensive identity or whether we keep playing guys like Kuzma and Poole big minutes regardless of whether they are focusing on both ends. If the catering to inefficient scorers who don't play defense becomes the hallmark of the team, even a true star might not be enough and the team will frustrate me personally. I think we have a shot of becoming a good team, maybe even a contender, if we don't cut short the rebuild to be a perpetual middle of the road team the way we have before (the Ruland/Mahorn teams, the Jordan return, etc.). Heck, if Minnesota and arguably the Clippers could do it, the two teams clearly worse over their history than the Bullets/Wizards, so can we.

[2Fluffy4U]

Oh, given the age of our franchise coupled with the on-court performance and apathetic fan base, I think we're comfortably the worst franchise in the league.

Which is the best starting point for the rebuild.

No monkey business. Just hard work.

[9 and 20]

Oh, given the age of our franchise coupled with the on-court performance and apathetic fan base, I think we're comfortably the worst franchise in the league.

Which is the best starting point for the rebuild.

No monkey business. Just hard work.

Wiz been comfortably worst franchise in the league for about 4 decades now. Bobcats stink is only 20 years old. Wiz old heads got them comfortably beat.

Who else can claim anything like our greatest hits - Kwame and cake, poop in the shoe, trading away 3 hall of famers for Mitch Richmond, Ike Austin, and Rod Strickland's hot dogs. What about Kevin Duckworth, Michael Ruffin and the Raptors, and Eric Maynor. And my goodness the summer of Durant - Ian Mahinmi and Andrew Nicholson. And all of that just scratching the surface.

[J-Ves]

Very happy with Bilal and Vuc. Rebuilding teams aren’t graded on wins and losses but how well they do in the draft. The early returns are promising.

Even with the disastrous Poole trade I would give the FO a grade of A or A- up to this point

[penbeast0]

Oh, given the age of our franchise coupled with the on-court performance and apathetic fan base, I think we're comfortably the worst franchise in the league.

Which is the best starting point for the rebuild.

No monkey business. Just hard work.

Wiz been comfortably worst franchise in the league for about 4 decades now. Bobcats stink is only 20 years old. Wiz old heads got them comfortably beat.

Who else can claim anything like our greatest hits - Kwame and cake, poop in the shoe, trading away 3 hall of famers for Mitch Richmond, Ike Austin, and Rod Strickland's hot dogs. What about Kevin Duckworth, Michael Ruffin and the Raptors, and Eric Maynor. And my goodness the summer of Durant - Ian Mahinmi and Andrew Nicholson. And all of that just scratching the surface.

As long as the Donald Sterling years count, hard to have even the Wiz or the TWolves rated over the Clippers unless you strongly emphasize the last 2 or 3 years.

[TGW]

"1. I'm not judging them based on Poole's implosion. No one could have predicted it."

Cap. I did, and so did a few others.

[Endless Loop]

My brother was visiting for the eclipse and likes to follow sports so he listened to a Wizards podcast (because he knows I still follow them) out of curiosity. He was surprised they were just talking about normal NBA stuff (this asset is better/worse than expected, maybe we could improve if we made x trade) instead of the elephant in the room, that the Wizards are arguably the worst NBA franchise in the history of the NBA and will never, ever break 50 wins. I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

Cleveland is a city of 300,000 people and has a franchise better than DC's, even without LeBron. The DMV has what, 8 million people? And hasn't sniffed home court advantage in the playoffs in literally decades? Inexcusable.

If they wanted to, they could "rise to mediocrity" within a year, certainly 2, by signing a few midlevel free agents in the right positions for a fair price. It's just that mediocrity isn't the plan. For instance, this team wouldn't have been so bad with better play in the middle.

Also, I don't think that Poole would have been given so much rope, especially early on, if winning was the main goal. Some of the time allocation was with an eye towards potential trades.

And then coaching was an issue early in the year.

Anyway, I don't think that the team is that far from being mid, if that's the goal.

Right now, the team has several contracts that represent good value. In a league with a salary cap, that's solid progress.

[payitforward]

"1. I'm not judging them based on Poole's implosion. No one could have predicted it."

Cap. I did, and so did a few others.

True. You did. My bad.

[DCZards]

I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

This part is not true. The Zards fanbase doesn’t root for the opponents. It’s the opponent’s fan that infiltrate Cap One that you hear rooting for their team.

Same thing is happening right now in Philly where Knick fans have showed up in large numbers. The Sixers and their fans are pissed…but I’m kinda enjoying it because it’s what Philly fans do here in DC.

[payitforward]

Yeah, I guess that makes sense -- after all, there are a lot of people in DC from other parts of the country. Coming to the game to see their home town team rather than the home town team.

[Zonkerbl]

I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

This part is not true. The Zards fanbase doesn’t root for the opponents. It’s the opponent’s fan that infiltrate Cap One that you hear rooting for their team.

Same thing is happening right now in Philly where Knick fans have showed up in large numbers. The Sixers and their fans are pissed…but I’m kinda enjoying it because it’s what Philly fans do here in DC.

ok that's a distinction without a difference. The MCI center is regularly filled halfway with fans who root for the other team. What you're describing is a rare, playoff context driven occurrence. What happens in DC is almost every damn home game. Those are fans who LIVE HERE who actively root for other teams. That is a SUCKY FAN BASE. There are *reasons* - we have a transient fan base, our sucky ownership actively encouraged it - but it is still the case that a city of 8 million people has no home court advantage, which loses them 5 games a season by itself, and can't attract the free agents that cities a tenth - no, in some cases a twentieth! - their size can (Cleveland?????).

I have lived in three different cities that had NBA franchises and I immediately switched allegiance to the local home team when I moved. Rooting for some other city's team WHILE YOU ARE LIVING THERE is cowardly, shameful behavior. Grow a spine and root for the crappy home team, you carpetbagger.

[AFM]

It's not really DC's fault though. How much are decent tickets--200 each? Would you pay 800-1000 bucks to bring your family to watch the wizards suck ass for 3 hours? The value just isnt there.

[pancakes3]

It's not really DC's fault though. How much are decent tickets--200 each? Would you pay 800-1000 bucks to bring your family to watch the wizards suck ass for 3 hours? The value just isnt there.

my buddy, ostensibly a wizards fan, dropped $1k so his kid could watch Steph live.

Zards ate loss 12 on their way to a 16 game losing streak.

[Tyrone Messby]

I take solace in knowing that this past season is probably the worst it’s going to get for at least the next decade. I think next season can be really fun and then primed for take off in 2026 and beyond.

2026,2028, and 2030 swaps with the Suns (looking at you 2028) could be chef’s kiss.

[DCZards]

I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

This part is not true. The Zards fanbase doesn’t root for the opponents. It’s the opponent’s fan that infiltrate Cap One that you hear rooting for their team.

Same thing is happening right now in Philly where Knick fans have showed up in large numbers. The Sixers and their fans are pissed…but I’m kinda enjoying it because it’s what Philly fans do here in DC.

ok that's a distinction without a difference. The MCI center is regularly filled halfway with fans who root for the other team. What you're describing is a rare, playoff context driven occurrence. What happens in DC is almost every damn home game. Those are fans who LIVE HERE who actively root for other teams. That is a SUCKY FAN BASE. There are *reasons* - we have a transient fan base, our sucky ownership actively encouraged it - but it is still the case that a city of 8 million people has no home court advantage, which loses them 5 games a season by itself, and can't attract the free agents that cities a tenth - no, in some cases a twentieth! - their size can (Cleveland?????).

I have lived in three different cities that had NBA franchises and I immediately switched allegiance to the local home team when I moved. Rooting for some other city's team WHILE YOU ARE LIVING THERE is cowardly, shameful behavior. Grow a spine and root for the crappy home team, you carpetbagger.

I repeat: There aren’t many, if any, Zards fans who root for the opponents. You’re dead wrong about that.

I’m not from DC (grew up in NY a Knick fan) but I live here now and I root for all of the home teams. That's just how I roll. People who move here from NY, Boston, Philly, etc. have a right to root for the teams they grew up rooting for. Unlike you, I don’t have a problem with that.

Just win baby…and the Zards fans will be there.

[The Consiglieri]

I thought it was a little unfair but there is some truth to it, in the sense that our super sucky fanbase that consistently roots for the other team in the building probably costs the team at least 5 "home court advantage" wins a year, which over time is really crippling.

This part is not true. The Zards fanbase doesn’t root for the opponents. It’s the opponent’s fan that infiltrate Cap One that you hear rooting for their team.

Same thing is happening right now in Philly where Knick fans have showed up in large numbers. The Sixers and their fans are pissed…but I’m kinda enjoying it because it’s what Philly fans do here in DC.

ok that's a distinction without a difference. The MCI center is regularly filled halfway with fans who root for the other team. What you're describing is a rare, playoff context driven occurrence. What happens in DC is almost every damn home game. Those are fans who LIVE HERE who actively root for other teams. That is a SUCKY FAN BASE. There are *reasons* - we have a transient fan base, our sucky ownership actively encouraged it - but it is still the case that a city of 8 million people has no home court advantage, which loses them 5 games a season by itself, and can't attract the free agents that cities a tenth - no, in some cases a twentieth! - their size can (Cleveland?????).

I have lived in three different cities that had NBA franchises and I immediately switched allegiance to the local home team when I moved. Rooting for some other city's team WHILE YOU ARE LIVING THERE is cowardly, shameful behavior. Grow a spine and root for the crappy home team, you carpetbagger.

Lol, weak sauce. I've been battling Niner and Raider Fan, and Warrior fan etc in the bay for 3 decades before I moved to nowhere, it was anything but cowardly to walk into those stadiums with opponents gear, especially considering most of the time, the gear I had on represented the clear inferior team. Didn't do that so much with raider fan, just A's fans who were more congenial. But no, its not cowardly lol. Its pretty hellish to literally always be in enemy gear when you go into stadiums, knowing your gonna get heckled, constantly threatened, spit at by drunks, have your car potentially damaged by idiots etc. Not fun, but its life when your a fan of a team from far away (and neither myself, nor my brother and close friends were ever the taunting sort either).