The Eliminateds

[NYG]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2370869

Fans of the teams below... Answer the following for the teams already eliminated...

Nets
Hornets
Pistons
Rockets
Grizzlies
Trail Blazers
Spurs
Raptors
Jazz
Wizards

1. The following players will 100% be back with the team next year...
2. The following players will 100% be gone next year...
3. The 3 things my team must accomplish this off-season are... (Note: this could be cap wise, on the court needs wise, coaching change, free agency/draft needs/targets, etc.)

[AFM]

You can call it "eliminated" all you want, we call it getting a head start on next years championship

[penbeast0]

WIZARDS

CORE (traded only if blown away by one sided offer)
Deni Avdija
Bilal Coulibaly
1st round DCs (2)

BAD CONTRACT
Jordan Poole was one of the worst players in the NBA while being paid like a star. Washington is as far away from contending as any team in the league, maybe farther. No reason to trade him as I see no likelihood of a positive offer. He shoots enough and works hard enough that you keep him and hope he rehabs his value.

END OF BENCH GUYS WITH POTENTIAL
No reason to trade any of these as no one is offering anything much.
Tristen Vukevic -- showed offensive potential as a 2nd rounder in limited time toward the end of the year
Jared Butler -- played well at G league, in garbage time, then in end of year stretch as backup PG. Freshly signed to minimal 3 year deal

TRADE IF GOOD OFFER
Kuzma -- Declining contract might make him attractive to a team that needs a 3rd scorer but can't afford star salary
Kispert -- Has been a terrific shooter his whole career, last year stepped up his attack the basket game, good size but no defense. If we were a contender, this is the type of player we should keep but I don't see his ceiling any higher than normal year to year improvement so I'd move him for a reasonable offer.

WORTH A ROSTER SPOT BUT NOT VALUABLE
RIchard Holmes -- best center on roster, not saying much, expiring next year
Marvin Bagley -- best statistical center on roster, expiring next year
Anthony Gill -- end of bench vet
Eugene Omaruyi -- end of bench hustle guy
Landry Shamet -- solid journeyman bench 2 without much upside

BACK IF NOTHING BETTER PRESENTS
Guys who haven't shown much
Johnny Davis -- former lottery pick, never shown NBA talent
Patrick Baldwin Jr -- former late 1st, extremely unimpressive so far

G LEAGUE TYPES
Justin Champagne
Jules Bernard

FREE AGENT
Tyus Jones -- a player I like as much as I dislike Jordan Poole, but also a solid vet without much ceiling he hasn't shown. The team had its best stretch with him injured so likely to just run it back without him and look elsewhere to spend that money

[doclinkin]

Wizards
1. The following players will 100% be back with the team next year...
2. The following players will 100% be gone next year...
3. The 3 things my team must accomplish this off-season are... (Note: this could be cap wise, on the court needs wise, coaching change, free agency/draft needs/targets, etc.)

1. Keep.

The team has one proven core player in Deni Avdija. Homegrown player who is improving swiftly. On a great contract, resigned and extended. He's easy to build around since he is a team player who passes willingly and plays good defense. Switchable at either forward spot and versatile enough to guard both interior and wing players, he fits in every configuration at that end. He's probably the Wizards only untouchable player, inasmuch as his contract is such a good value and his improvement has been so significant that it would be unlikely for any team to offer anything of equivalent value. 100% he stays on the team.

For opposite reasons Jordan Poole will remain with the team since he would be impossible to trade. With an albatross contract, he had a historically awful start to the season. Turned it around late season when moved to the bench so he could develop confidence attacking back-ups. He actually played faux-good enough as a lead ballhandler combo guard that it may allow the team to start the year with him at PG, even while knowing the greatest benefit he adds will be as a tank commander in a year with a handful of potential franchise talents. He will give dynamic losses. Nothing is more important next year than draft position. Interestingly he actually is thought of as a good teammate and hard worker in practice, so his teammates seem not to resent his lack of defense, overdribbling and shotjacking. All seem to think he will turn it around at some point. Late game play says, maybe so. And probably not. In any significant way. But given that he is here no matter what, that is what the front office can hope for: maybe with occasional highlight reel hot streaks he turns out to be tradable later in his contract. For now: he's our best chance at Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey. 100% he's here next year.

This year's rookies of course will undoubtedly remain with the team.

Slow playing his development, they are happy with 6'8" F Bilal Coulibaly's potential and will have very clear assignments to work on over the summer. Add an offensive move. Work on his handle. Get stronger. He has a few obvious areas of development but his length, instincts and upside are still enticing, especially on defense. They're process oriented and hope to see incremental growth not anything world shattering. 98%, it would take a startling offer with 2025/2026 lotto picks to pry him away.

Surprising promise was shown by 7' F/C Tristan Vukcevic overseas. To the extent that they brought him over midway through the year to give him late season developmental time in games that didn't matter. He startled with the skills he did show. Passing, outside shooting, a bit of a handle, on offense he popped. On defense he was more lean and quick than when he was last seen in Summer League. Solid improvement though he still needs work. They will want him to add strength in the offseason so he can handle the physicality demanded in the front court. Currently he plays only as a stretch forward but his limited laterality means his ability to guard outside is not a strength. So anything he adds there is a positive. Fortunately he has a chance to play for any of four different Olympic teams, so whoever wants him from Sweden, Greece, Serbia or Italy can add him as a practice player where he can earn more valuable experience. 85% he sticks.

Jared Butler played solidly in a back-up role late season and earned a contract with the team. A pro's pro, his contract provides good value. His age fits their timeline, he was a success story as a mid-season pick up. 80% except that he's a good trade throw in if something shows up during the season.

2. Trades.

Kyle Kuzma will be a draft day trade. He has a nice contract, excellent highlight reel, championship resume, enough of a game to be desirable. Good teammate. Plays defense when his offensive role is reduced. Rebounds when he can focus on it. Has triple doubles in his history. Versatile at being mediocre to good. Known and well liked by many around the league. He does not carry the team to wins, and does not fit the timeline. He is the team's best trade asset. He doesn't have veto power but they'd like to make him happy. If his agent can find a contender who wants him the team will swap him for a package of picks. 90% he is gone before the season. His exit makes room for Deni to take a leadership role, and opens play time for Bilal.

Tyus Jones, solid soldier, good player. Poor fit next to Jordan Poole. I wish we could keep him and swap Poole, but he is a free agent who will earn offers. Nice if we could sign and trade him, but likely he will get offers that make this unnecessary. 80% he is gone. If we landed either Reed Sheppard or Stephon Castle in the draft I'd hope to pay Jones a little above the market rate to mentor them, so they learn professional habits from the NBA record holding Ast:TO leader. As opposed to whatever Poole models.

2.A. Assets.

All other players are gettable with the right offer. Probably the 2nd most valuable trade asset is Corey Kispert. I expect him to stick with the team, especially as he is showing growth as a potential guard prospect. But a team could get him as part of a strong package deal.

In order of value the rest are all gettable as throw-ins for trades.
Shamet -- reliable off ball shooter
Bagley -- physical frontcourt talent with injury history, rejuvenated some value with sturdy play when healthy
Holmes -- late career banger, likewise showed he has something left in the tank with the right team, competent back-up C.
Omoruyi -- solid end of bench undersized C hustlefck
Baldwin -- looks so good, performs so bad. Tall talented outside shooter who misses most shots. But hit a few late season. Late bloomer? Bet on a 3rd year break out?
Davis -- undersized 2-guard who can't shoot, but does play defense.

3. Offseason.
Nothing matters more than the draft. This year, next year, all future years. We can pick for upside not instant production. Positional needs are secondary. We have no position that is too deep that we can't add a new talent and get better.

This year we have a top 6 pick guaranteed. Plus one in the mid 20's. And a late 2nd rounder. This year is deep in playable talent even if it's not topheavy in all-stars and franchise players. I have my favorites, but in a year with no consensus picks the team can gamble on their hunches and data. Take a swing. No fans will tear up their season tickets because you took that player over this one. Nobody is a surefire hit.

That means you can even trade down and trade it forward if you get a good offer. We are still in the business of stockpiling draft picks. Either round. A win total in the teens means the team is happy to trade anybody on the roster for future draft picks. Our cap situation is good enough that we can even eat other teams' terrible contracts so long as they overpay in picks and swaps.

The team is transparent that we are in the rebuilding phase. Last year we talked about building from the middle. It didn't happen. We lost at an unprecedented rate. That gives them a PR shield to commit to next year as a developmental year, where they constantly audition call-ups from the G league etc. and play young players heavy minutes. Most importantly we need to lose heavy in a year when other teams will be tanking. Get a franchise player, or more than one, then build around them. Nothing else matters.

[nate33]

^^^

What Doc said. He nailed everything.

The only minor quibble is that I think Vukcevic is more of a 99% chance to return, not 85%. They're not going to just throw him into a deal Jordan Goodwin style; they will demand value. And no other team is going to offer significant assets for him when he only played a handful of meaningless games.

Tyus and Kispert are honestly the only guys worth debating. Deni, Butler, Coulibaly and Vukcevic aren't going anywhere. Kuzma is on the block and will be traded for the best offer we get between now and the 2025 Trade Deadline. All the guys further down in the rotation have no trade value.

At this point, I'm out on Tyus. He is demonstrably a terrible fit here, having the worst on/off on the entire roster. We don't have the team defense to make up for his diminutive stature, and we have enough ball-handlers (Deni, Poole and Kuzma) that we don't really benefit that much from running everything through him on offense. Tyus needs to play on a team like Minnesota who has a lot of talent but needs a true PG to get them the ball where they need it. I'd S&T him if we could get value, but I doubt such a deal materializes. If someone comes along with a full MLE offer, I wouldn't match it, which limits our leverage. We should have traded him at the Deadline for SRP's.

Regarding Kispert, I wouldn't be shopping him because I like him, but I wouldn't be not-shopping him because we need a lot more high-upside talent than we have. If Kispert could be moved for a player or pick that has a significant chance of peaking higher than where Kispert will be 3 years from now, we must consider it. On the other hand, he is a real good teammate with a veteran's demeanor despite only 3 years of experience. If he extends on a Deni-style descending contract he will be an asset both now and going forward.

[pancakes3]

1. Kuz, Poole, Deni, Kispert, Coulibali, Tristan Vukcevic, and Jared Butler are 100% back next year.
2. Shamet, and Delon Wright are 100% gone next year.
3. a. Get Poole into therapy
b. Poole/Kuz/Kispert to get above .400 shooting from 3
c. Poole/Kuz/Deni to draw more fouls
d. Unlock Patrick Baldwin Jr. PBJ was a 5-star all-star recruit coming out of HS, had offers from Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, USC - even offered at Duke before Banchero got one. He decided to go play for for his dad at UW-Wisconsin - had some injury issues his senior year of HS and college, his dad got fired, and now is in the NBA with 2 mediocre seasons w the Warriors and Wizards. Rated higher than Scoot coming out of HS.

[NatP4]

I would be shocked if Kuzma is back next year. Bottom line: there are only two for certain core pieces on this roster: Coulibaly and Avdija. Both of those guys will be starting and playing a significant role. This year, Avdija transitioned from a wild card young player in a make it or break it season, to a legit all star caliber core piece. Easily surpassed Kuzma. It’s either a reduced bench role, or an offseason trade for Kuzma.

I think Doc is spot in (with his entire post) and especially the portion about Kuzma. He’s gone on draft night. Would prefer a 2025 pick in return, if Murray-Boyles is indeed headed back to college.

Also think Poole is gone if they can find a taker. Especially if we end up picking Topic in the draft.

[nate33]

I would be shocked if Kuzma is back next year. Bottom line: there are only two for certain core pieces on this roster: Coulibaly and Avdija. Both of those guys will be starting and playing a significant role. This year, Avdija transitioned from a wild card young player in a make it or break it season, to a legit all star caliber core piece. Easily surpassed Kuzma. It’s either a reduced bench role, or an offseason trade for Kuzma.

I think Doc is spot in (with his entire post) and especially the portion about Kuzma. He’s gone on draft night. Would prefer a 2025 pick in return, if Murray-Boyles is indeed headed back to college.

Also think Poole is gone if they can find a taker. Especially if we end up picking Topic in the draft.

I think they'll gladly trade Kuzma this summer if there's a decent offer. But if there isn't, I think the lineup can still work with Avdija as the nominal PG. Just start Avdija, Poole, Coulibaly and Kuzma. Then look to move Kuzma by the trade deadline.

What I'd really like to see is Kuzma committing to becoming a high quality role player instead of a second-rate "star". With Poole playing better and Avdija emerging as a guy who can sustain a usage in the 21-24% range, we no longer need or want Kuzma in the 28-30% usage range. I'd like to see him down around 23% while getting back to playing better D and rebounding. I don't think that's in the cards though.

[pancakes3]

I don't think we're getting any value from Kuz. No comparable talent coming back, and in terms of trades, he's going to fetch what, role players + late 1st?

[nate33]

I don't think we're getting any value from Kuz. No comparable talent coming back, and in terms of trades, he's going to fetch what, role players + late 1st?

Dallas was reportedly offering at least the PJ Washington package, and maybe it was what they gave for Gafford AND Washington.

The playoffs is where we see the value in guys like Kuzma. During the regular season, you can get away with a plug-and-play low-skill 3&D forward in Kuzma's role. But as you get further into the playoffs and teams scout you thoroughly, those 1-dimensional role players can no longer hold up. You need a guy who can be a triple threat and make decision That's where teams will be willing to pay for a guy like Kuzma in that role.

[doclinkin]

2. Shamet, and Delon Wright are 100% gone next year.

Wright is already 100% gone this year since he is on Miami's roster after the buyout.

[9 and 20]

I don't think we're getting any value from Kuz. No comparable talent coming back, and in terms of trades, he's going to fetch what, role players + late 1st?

I need to see how Winger and Dawkins draft this year, but I can be talked into role players and a late first. That's all we got for Gaff. Supposedly Dallas was going to trade two firsts for Kuz and I def would have taken that.

I'd love to trade Kuz for Giannis, but you take what you can get. Trading a Tyus Jones for a ham sandwich might have been the right move going back a few months.

[TGW]

Tyus wants to comeback, which is good. Bring him back on a good contract and I'll be happy with that.