How good can the Wizards be?

[MDStar]

I know I'm taking a chance here but i don't think there is a specific topic in regards to this.

With all the conversations about Gil making us better or worst and Caron being a better leader, I decided to start this to examine what we are and what we could be. IMO I think EG has done a terrific job of putting this team together. So good in fact it started to make me think, what do we have to do, in order to be an elite team? After thinking for a while, im not so sure where not there already. Just examine our roster:

Arenas- Superstar, one of the top 10 players in the league.
Butler- Allstar, one of the top 5 players at his positon.
Jamison- Allstar, consistant 20 and 10 guy who is the leader of this team.
Haywood- One of the top defensive big men in the league, still improving.
Stevenson- Quality starter and a bargain price. Defensive guard.

Those are our starters. 1-5 as good as any in the league. Of course im not saying there the best but who has a 1-5 that completely dominates us. I can't think of one, including the Mavs, Spurs, Suns or Celtics.

Now to the bench:

Thomas, Daniels, Songalia, Mason jr.

Veterens on the team, who know their roles and are relatively productive.

Young, Opec, Blatche, DMac

Young, inexperianced but very talented players. All bring something different than the next. Plus, are no where near thier peaks. In the future, than can be anywhere from stars, starters or quality bench players.

Basically, all im saying is this team is very good and relatively young. IMO if we continue to play just league average defense, the sky is the limit for this team over the next 4-5 years. What are your thoughts on how good this team is today (healthy) and how good they can be in the future if everyone stays?

[nate33]

Obviously, much of this depends on how well Arenas can be integrated once he returns. If the team can play the same D with Arenas, maintain their unselfish play on offense, plus add Arenas' superstar offensive skillset, they will indeed be contenders.

Our top 6 might well be the best top 6 in the league. There's 3 all-stars, a top 10 perimeter defender, a top 10 interior defender, and Daniels, who is one of the better 6th men in the game.

Our depth from 7-13 is okay, but still a little inconsistent. I'd like it much better if Songaila was as steady and reliable as he was last year. I won't call our bench "good" until either Blatche or Nick Young can have good nights on a regular basis. They're both too inconsistent right now.

Overall, I think EG has done an outstanding job of assembling this team. The personell complement each other perfectly. We have a great balance of offense and defense, passing and shooting, youth and maturity.

For the first time in ages, I can't think of any "hole" in this team. I no longer spend hours on the Trade Checker figuring out how to balance out the roster. We lack a reliable scorer on the 2nd unit, but Nick Young is tracking to be that guy in a year or so. We lack a consistent backup defensive center but Blatche is tracking to be that guy as he matures.

The only concern I have right now is that we're a little thin at backup SF. We could use a defensive-minded backup swing man who can do a little of everything (except we don't need much offense from the spot). DMac looked to be a perfect fit during the preseason, but he hasn't panned out so far. A lot of guys make a significant leap in their sophomore year after realizing what it truly takes to play at the professional level. Let's hope DMac can be one of those guys.

When our cap situation improves next year, I'd like to add another minimum salary free agent SF like Mike Hall, and an emergency 3rd PG like Mike Wilks as our 14th and 15th men.

[doclinkin]

The only concern I have right now is that we're a little thin at backup SF.

Actually as Pech develops we're okay for now at back-up SF inasmuch as Jamison can slide over when TJ needs a rest, and Pech may fill in as the long-range rebounding Big. After this year we may get a peek at Veremeenko who has been playing pretty well as a PF/SF glue guy in Russia. Question marks exist if he's NBA quality, but he'd adjust easier as the third member of the post-soviet troika.

Cap-wise we may lose Mason in the offseason, so a replacement combo guard or scoring/defending PG to apprentice behind Daniels is a long-range need. But I'm pretty confident we can get one in the draft since that's the most common position available in any draft.

Fact is without any gaping needs in any position, we're in the catbird seat. Ernie has the freedom reserved for a rare few franchises of selecting for best player available (aside from Bigs) and stockpiling talent overseas. See: Spurs, San Antonio.

[BigA]

<snip>a top 10 perimeter defender<snip>

This caught my eye. Would be interesting to see whether this assessment of Stevenson is becoming more widely shared among people who watch the whole league. What do opposing team scouting reports say about DeShawn at this point?

[gizzardsfan]

It depends almost entirely on how you believe the team will be affected by the return of Arenas from injury. There are those who anticipate his return to be a detriment to team chemistry, in particular. Arenas coming back should not have any negative effect on the improved defense the Wizards have played this season.

To put an optimistic spin on it, the Wizards are capable of playing with (and beating) some of the best in the NBA without Gilbert Arenas. If you take a team that can already run with the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks of the NBA and throw in an All-Star guard like Arenas, then there really doesn't seem to be any reason this team couldn't compete for the Eastern Conference title, at least.

[MJG]

We look like championship contenders, with the one big caveat: Arenas absolutely must be able to integrate into the team with what it's doing now, rather than disrupt the flow we've currently got going. If he can come in and be a 25/7 guy who plays average defense, rather than the 29/6 guy who thinks steals are the only way to guard an opponent, the sky is the limit for this team.

[nate33]

-= original quote snipped =-



Actually as Pech develops we're okay for now at back-up SF inasmuch as Jamison can slide over when TJ needs a rest, and Pech may fill in as the long-range rebounding Big. After this year we may get a peek at Veremeenko who has been playing pretty well as a PF/SF glue guy in Russia. Question marks exist if he's NBA quality, but he'd adjust easier as the third member of the post-soviet troika.

I was thinking more about defense. Butler is solid, but we don't really have anybody else to match up with Paul Pierce's and Carmelo Anthony's of the league. What if Butler gets hurt? I don't relish idea of playing Jamison at SF full time. I like him much better at PF.

Again, it isn't a huge issue. We can certainly slide Jamison over to SF for stretches. I just would like to have a guy like the projected version of DMac on the roster. Maybe Nick Young can play some SF once he puts on some bulk.

[MDStar]

It depends almost entirely on how you believe the team will be affected by the return of Arenas from injury. There are those who anticipate his return to be a detriment to team chemistry, in particular. Arenas coming back should not have any negative effect on the improved defense the Wizards have played this season.

To be honest, that discussion is not what this thread is for. We have plenty of those floating around where the "what have you done for me lately crowd" can go and hang out. This thread is for those who can look at our team from a talent stand point and make an assumption as to how good we are and how good we can be.

[gizzardsfan]

-= original quote snipped =-



To be honest, that discussion is not what this thread is for. We have plenty of those floating around where the "what have you done for me lately crowd" can go and hang out. This thread is for those who can look at our team from a talent stand point and make an assumption as to how good we are and how good we can be.

I appreciate your intent. I wasn't trying to beat a dead horse, but in my eyes the two issues can't really be separated. After all, to properly measure the ceiling for the Wizards, you have to consider the positives and negatives of Arenas' return. It isn't as if the team will immediately score [(current PPG) + (Arenas PPG - Daniels PPG)] once he steps on the court. It isn't that simple, as I'm sure you're aware.

That said, I'm starting to really like the depth we have on this team. It's something Wizards fans can't be accustomed to, having endured the days of Michael Ruffin and Donnell Taylor and co. who contributed virtually nothing when they were on the court.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

According to my super calculations, the Wizards could be 78-4 good.

It's crazy math, but that's the outcome.

[miller31time]

We've known for quite some time that this team has a championship caliber offense. That's never been a concern. The problem has always been defense. Simple answer to our problem is that we're playing defense this year. Going fro 28th to 13th in defensive efficiency is incredible when you take into account no major additions to the team have been made (ie: trading Jamison for a Kirilenko, etc). This is a credit to the acquisition of Ayers who seems to be able to get everyone to buy into his system, more PT for Brendan and an emerging role for Andray.

For the past few weeks, we haven't been the 13th best defensive team in the NBA. We've been right up there in the top 5 (IMO).

So in short (and I apologize for using Gilbert here), when Arenas comes back and our offense goes from 11th in efficiency to around 3rd (as it was last season when he was healthy), and our defense can remain at around 13th, we move up into that category of "sort of title contenders". Unfortunately, we won't be in the category of the Celtics, Pistons and Spurs, since they are not only top 10 offenses but top 10 defenses, but we'll be closer than I ever thought we'd be.

[TheKingOfVa360]

We look like championship contenders, with the one big caveat: Arenas absolutely must be able to integrate into the team with what it's doing now, rather than disrupt the flow we've currently got going. If he can come in and be a 25/7 guy who plays average defense, rather than the 29/6 guy who thinks steals are the only way to guard an opponent, the sky is the limit for this team.

I agree with you. If Arenas can come back and be a 22 ppg 8 apg with good defense and good shooting from the field then we will be in the Eastern Conference Finals.

[wermolwermol777]

According to my super calculations, the Wizards could be 78-4 good.

It's crazy math, but that's the outcome.

I'm on the same boat with you on this one.

[Wiz99]

When Gil returns we should improve. And with some teething pains, my hope is the Wiz will improve.

But as I read it, this is a question of upside. And I think what might cap Les Wiz from being true title contenders is two things. We may be much better on D, but we're still mediocre. What championship team has taken the trophy with just so-so defense? In fact, I'd say a lot of champs have D that's nastier than their offenses are dominant. Last champ I can think of where it was the opposite was the Showtime Lakers, who truly had a powerful offensive attack. But even they had Michael Cooper, the Secretary of Defense.

The Lakers bring up another thing I think we lack: dependable low-post scoring. Even with all the razzle dazzle, they still had Kareem. And when they needed a bucket, they could ALWAYS go to Mr. Goggles with the Sky Hook. Money. Playoffs roll around, games slow down as defenses tighten up. Being able to get dependable points at any point is gold. I suppose you could argue Gil could be our money guy, but why is it that teams pound it down to their big guy when they need a bucket? Because a shot from 5 feet is almost always more likely to go in than one from 20.

So, I still see defense and lack of a big time post presence as capping the Wizards potential.

[Ruzious]

Maybe we're not quite as good as Lakers Showtime. We just need to sign McAdoo to come off the bench. I'd settle for Elton Brand. But seriously, I think we do set the inside tone early on purpose. Notice Haywood usually gets inside buckets early in games. It establishes the inside threat, and you don't have to keep going back to it to keep the threat. Also, Jamison has gone inside quite a bit this season - with his array of flip shots.

I never would have guessed how balance this roster has become. I always thought EG was a solid GM, but he's shown a vision that I didn't see coming. Everyone seems to fit. And if everything with Gil works out, we've got a championship contender, imo, and a great future.

[hands11]

We look like championship contenders, with the one big caveat: Arenas absolutely must be able to integrate into the team with what it's doing now, rather than disrupt the flow we've currently got going. If he can come in and be a 25/7 guy who plays average defense, rather than the 29/6 guy who thinks steals are the only way to guard an opponent, the sky is the limit for this team.

Id take a 20 and 8-10 guy over a 25 and 7 guys any day.
Just as a note. GA has never done either before.

If he was a 20 and 8-10 guy in about 35 mins, no one could stop us. Well, given he has a decent A/TO number.

We are winning with AD only averaging 9 pts in 31 mins with a A/TO 3.39. We dont need a PG who scores 25 to win. With AD there, this have been proven. We just need another PG who brings everything Superman AD bring so we have that quality of PG on a court at all times.

If that is all we gained when GA returns, we would be a lot better. Now if GA can bring just a little more such as some timely deep in the clock bail out shots, then we will be great. We really don't need anything more then that. Just having him on the court will keep the D a little more honest. He doesnt have to shot a lot. He just needs to score when no one else is hot or when he needs to keep them honest.

We have a defense now. We don't have to put all over energy into hoping we can outrun and gun score them.

I want GA of 02-03 with a few more assists.

[MJG]

-= original quote snipped =-
Id take a 20 and 8-10 guy over a 25 and 7 guys any day.
Just as a note. GA has never done either before.

I was just trying to keep it fairly realistic. Arenas simply isn't a 20/8-10 type of player. I doubt he'd be truly happy in a system that capped him at 20 PPG, I can't see him averaging 8+ assists period. I figure 25/7 is within his reach though, which is why I targeted that.

[hands11]

When Gil returns we should improve. And with some teething pains, my hope is the Wiz will improve.

But as I read it, this is a question of upside. And I think what might cap Les Wiz from being true title contenders is two things. We may be much better on D, but we're still mediocre. What championship team has taken the trophy with just so-so defense? In fact, I'd say a lot of champs have D that's nastier than their offenses are dominant. Last champ I can think of where it was the opposite was the Showtime Lakers, who truly had a powerful offensive attack. But even they had Michael Cooper, the Secretary of Defense.

The Lakers bring up another thing I think we lack: dependable low-post scoring. Even with all the razzle dazzle, they still had Kareem. And when they needed a bucket, they could ALWAYS go to Mr. Goggles with the Sky Hook. Money. Playoffs roll around, games slow down as defenses tighten up. Being able to get dependable points at any point is gold. I suppose you could argue Gil could be our money guy, but why is it that teams pound it down to their big guy when they need a bucket? Because a shot from 5 feet is almost always more likely to go in than one from 20.

So, I still see defense and lack of a big time post presence as capping the Wizards potential.

Let me add that those post points are usually

1) a lot more predictable. There is usually some pounding of the rock and a fake or 2 so the your teammates have time to position themselves for rebounding and getting back on D.

2) After the pounding of the rock and the set up fakes, the shot is taken from 10ft and closer. That leaves a lot more of your teammates between the other team and the hoop you are trying to defend.

3) the missed shots don't rebound 10 ft from the hoop leaving the court unbalanced in a scramble for the loss ball.

Since most great teams have a post presence, this is a big reason why the game slows down and why defenses are better. Once they do this to you, you can't fast break so your offense slows down also.

A team like the Magic Johnson Lakers had a hall of fame passing PG and the whole team that could pass really well. They could fast break on a made basket like very few teams in the history of the game. They also had the advantage of being able to leave KAJ back to defend the hoop.

Having a passing PG and a post game are key. You have to take smart shots and control the tempo.

[hands11]

-= original quote snipped =-


I was just trying to keep it fairly realistic. Arenas simply isn't a 20/8-10 type of player. I doubt he'd be truly happy in a system that capped him at 20 PPG, I can't see him averaging 8+ assists period. I figure 25/7 is within his reach though, which is why I targeted that.

I get cha. Makes sense how you were doing it.

But that is one of my challenges with GA. I think he has the talent to be a
20 and 10 guy. He can be as good or better then Chris Paul who is an MVP candidate. I know the man likes the lime light. If he could just see that players like Nash and Chris Paul are getting it. Also if he would be that kind of player, that is what would make us the best team in the league.

This is what we need from Gil
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/chris_pau ... stats.html

If he does this, he can be MVP and we can be champs. Isn't that what everyone wants?

[fishercob]

OBVIOUSLY you'd prefer 20 and 10 over 25 and 7! Assuming efficiency is held constant, and each assist is worth two points, the 25 and 7 player gets you 39 points and the 20 and 10 get you 40. But I wouldn't prefer 20 and 9 (38) to 25 and 7 (39). I just don't think it's useful to look at a player's per-game averages and then say "he needs to average X" in order for the team to do well. Gil needs to come back and play his game and the rest will take care of itself.

Anyhow, I actually think how good the Wizards can be has more to do with Blatche, Pecherov and Young than it does the vets. We know how good the vets are, but these kids -- who are all uber-talents -- can bring this team to another level. So my hope is that whatever happens this year, that the kids -- especially the bigs -- get meaningful playoff experience.