Free Agency Thread

[fishercob]

So with all of these teams angling for cap room in summer of '10, what's going to happen this summer when Kidd, Iverson, Ben Gordon, Bibby, Artest, Lamar Odom, Sheed, Dre Miller, and possibly Boozer are on the market.

I would imagine that some of these vets are going to take MLE type deals to go to contenders and some are just going to get signed on the relative cheap. This is where having an owner who is willing to pay the luxtax is a big advantage. I would not be surprised to see the "rich get richer" and a couple of these landing with the Lakers ,Celtics and possibly Cavs for a chance at a ring.

[lupin]

Buss doesn't really like the Luxury Tax anymore than Pollin.

[fishercob]

Buss doesn't really like the Luxury Tax anymore than Pollin.

Yeah, but it's easier to stomach when you have an additional 8+ sellouts from playoff games, plus all the associated revenues.

[nate33]

So with all of these teams angling for cap room in summer of '10, what's going to happen this summer when Kidd, Iverson, Ben Gordon, Bibby, Artest, Lamar Odom, Sheed, Dre Miller, and possibly Boozer are on the market.

I would imagine that some of these vets are going to take MLE type deals to go to contenders and some are just going to get signed on the relative cheap. This is where having an owner who is willing to pay the luxtax is a big advantage. I would not be surprised to see the "rich get richer" and a couple of these landing with the Lakers ,Celtics and possibly Cavs for a chance at a ring.

I made a post about this a week ago in the trade thread, but since you dug this thread up, it probably makes sense to repost it here:

I was just thinking about free agency in 2009. With so many teams positioning themselves for free agency in 2010, there will be very few teams with cap room in 2009 and a willingness to spend it.

OKC (assuming they're not too cheap)
Memphis (assuming they're not too cheap)
Atlanta has $15M or so, but they need to retain Bibby or some other PG
Detroit has about $16M assuming Rasheed and Iverson are let go.
Portland has about $18M assuming Blake and Outlaw are retained.
Miami will have about $7-8M available if Marion walks, but they're saving for 2010.

That's about it. And there are handful of pretty good free agents who happen to be in situations where their existing teams won't be able to keep them. The Lakers are paying a luxury tax even if they let Odom and Ariza walk. They certainly won't retain both and it a good bet that they won't retain either. Chicago probably won't retain Ben Gordon if somebody bids high. Utah can't afford both Boozer and Millsap, one of them must go. Miami will probably let Marion walk. New York will let both Nate Robinson and David Lee go to keep the Lebron dream alive. Detroit will probably let Rasheed and Iverson walk. Dallas has to make a decision on Kidd. Philly has A.Miller. Gooden might out there. Wally Szczerbiak. Joe Smith.

So the follow free agents could be available:
PG's: Kidd, Iverson, Bibby, A.Miller, N.Robinson, R.Felton
SG's: Gordon, M.Daniels, A.Parker
SF's: Marion, Ariza, Artest, Wally, Turkaglu, M.Williams, M.Barnes
PF's: Boozer, Rasheed, Odom, Millsap, Gooden, Lee, Wilcox, Bass, J.Smith
C's: Nesterovic, Okur (ETO)

Detroit will basically have their pick of the top tier of guys. Portland may or may not get involved. (I figure Boozer will definitely stay in Utah or go to Detroit.) But after the two good teams take their pick, the rest of those players will have to choose between Memphis, OKC or MLE offers. If there's any time to actually get a bargain in the free agency market, 2009 is the year.

We don't really have a chance to get under the cap. But if we can get far enough under the luxtax to use our MLE, we might end up with a real bargain because there will be so few other teams in position to use the MLE.

To have MLE room, we need to unload both AD and Etan for expiring contracts. Either that or we need to trade Jamison for expirings. If we do so we could end up with a pretty good young player at a cheap price.

[nate33]

Looking at that list, I really like the idea of going after either Ariza, Parker or Barnes if we can get them cheaply. We don't have any long swing men who can defend and shoot 3's.

[nate33]

One other concern. The following teams will be in position to have a ton of cap room in 2010 free agency:

Atlanta
Boston
Cleveland
Dallas
Houston
Memphis
Miami
New York
New Jersey
OKC
Phoenix
Sacramento

The good news is that most of these teams will therefore refrain from utilizing their MLE this summer. The bad news is that there will be a lot of money floating around in 2010. It is paramount that we lock up Haywood now because some team is going to miss out on the Lebron/Bosh/Amare/Nowitzki/Wade/Yao sweepstakes and will be forced to throw their money at second tier guys like Haywood.

Of course, Haywood's agent is well aware of this and he's going to make it difficult to resign Haywood to a favorable contract.

[fishercob]

I have to wonder whether the events of the day affect the desirability of DC as a free agent destination. I think DC just became a cooler place to be, and with the talk of the construction of a court in the White House and the Wiz offering up the Phone Booth as the temporary "First Court," I wouldn't be surprised if some NBA players are now more interested in playing here than they once were.

[spaceman_E]

Looking at that list, I really like the idea of going after either Ariza, Parker or Barnes if we can get them cheaply. We don't have any long swing men who can defend and shoot 3's.

Add Josh Childress to that list who has an opt out after 1 season in Europe. I actually think he would be the best fit and is restricted I believe but Atlanta also has to save room for Bibby and Joe Johnson next year as well as their other young guys coming up soon. I also think Ariza would be a really nice fit. At PF I think milsap would be very nice if Utah lets him loose but he seems the type that one of those young teams with cap space (OKC, Memphis) could throw a competitive deal at.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree, 100%, spaceman_E, on Childress and Millsap. Love Ariza's game, too.

What I think will happen is Millsap will be matched by Utah. They love him and really already want to trade Boozer. Likewise, I think Ariza's the man in LA and the Lakers would move Odom and Walton before they' want to part with Ariza. (nate can give you a sound point of view on the dollars and cents of what will happen--I don't know what cap constraints will force teams to do).

For me, I want the Wizards to do whatever they can do to get Childress if he opts out. I've always thought he'd be the utlimate sidekick to a healthy Gil, and that he could co-exist with Butler and Jamison.

Jamison, Butler, Young, Blatche, McGuire, James, Crittenton, Songaila, McGee with healthy Brendan, Gil, and acquired J Chill would be an awesome roster! Add whomever the Wizards draft and Washington could have an Instant title contender IMHO. (With the right coaching/system for the talent).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just found Childress' news today.

http://www.euroleague.net/news/i/42640/180/item

Olympiacos Pireaus on Tuesday announced that forward Josh Childress will undergo hernia surgery today and miss most, if not all, of the Top 16. Childress (203, 25) is the third-best scorer (10.7 ppg.) and second-best rebounder (5 rpg.) for the Reds, while leading the team in minutes played (26.3 mpg.). Childress returned to the United States over the weekend for medical attention concerning an inguinal hernia.

[BigA]

<snip>
I made a post about this a week ago in the trade thread, but since you dug this thread up, it probably makes sense to repost it here:
<snip>

This post has a higher level of analysis and better in-depth research than 90%+ of stuff you read on the NBA from professional journalists. Nate, you need to find someone to pay you for putting these together.

[LyricalRico]

Looking at that list, I really like the idea of going after either Ariza, Parker or Barnes if we can get them cheaply. We don't have any long swing men who can defend and shoot 3's.

Of that group, Ariza will be the most expensive, coming in at about the MLE. Unless there is a run on SGs, Parker is probably looking at a deal like Songaila got. Barnes will always be cheap IMO.

[fishercob]

I'd love Chill. I like Parker the most of the aforementioned three. We need his perimeter shooting, and I like the fact that he has excelled in the less "me-centric" world of Euroball. And having him would make it an easier adjustment for Bosh, when we trade for him this summer .

[spaceman_E]

I just found Childress' news today.

http://www.euroleague.net/news/i/42640/180/item

Olympiacos Pireaus on Tuesday announced that forward Josh Childress will undergo hernia surgery today and miss most, if not all, of the Top 16. Childress (203, 25) is the third-best scorer (10.7 ppg.) and second-best rebounder (5 rpg.) for the Reds, while leading the team in minutes played (26.3 mpg.). Childress returned to the United States over the weekend for medical attention concerning an inguinal hernia.

Obviously a back injury is never good news but how long would he actually be out for? If it's only a month or so that's not too serious an injury. At least it prevents him from being like playoff MVP and doubling his contract value.

[hands11]

Bring back Sheed.

If he were on the cheap. That would be a nice piece.

He is tough. Knows team ball. Can shoot with range.

He could teach Blatche and McGee some savy vet game with toughness.

Haywood, Wallace, Blatche

Wallace, McGee, Blatche

I'm more and more ready to see use move one or more of CB, AJ or GA.

I would like to add players like Wallace, Odom, Turk,

One the big time side...Wade and Mello

I'm kind of done with CB, AJ and GA. It could have worked a few years ago if GA was more of a PG first and EFJ played more Haywood and Blatche but I think that day has passed. We got good with them. Got back on the map. But I think they may just end up being a step in our recovery.