The Dominic McGuire Problem?

[JWizmentality]

Okay, so has DMac all but secured the starting spot over Desuck? How will the lineup be shuffled when we have healthy bodies again? Will Caron be moved back to the 3? Will Dom be sent back to the bench? How will the new coach utilize his talents? I for one couldn't stomach seeing Desuck start while DMac rots on the bench. DMac is averaging 9pts/10rbs/2blks over the past 5 games (One of you stat nerds dig deeper into those numbers to make them look more legend like), all the while shooting damn near 60% from the field. Desuck has never touched those numbers in his career, and I shudder to think what we could have possibly done with Dom had Desuck not EPICALLY sucked this year.

I'd like to have DMac in the starting spot long term. He's a godsend for this defensively (Please Use More Appropriate Word) team. I suppose it all depends on what we do this offseason. I know some of you hate Caron at the two, but it seems like he's molding to the roll. Although DMac is developing a consistent jumper, I wouldn't move him from the three. Depending on what we do with Twan...we could be looking at

Haywood
Griffin
DMac
Caron
Arenas

or

Haywood
Bosh
DMac
Caron
Arenas

At least, that's what I'm hoping for. If not, then how do we utilize DMac. I don't think he'll be effective coming off the bench. He never really has been, but he's blossomed in the starting role and has quickly become our most promising young talent. I initially thought of him as a defensive stopper of the bench, but **** that ****! He's a stat stuffer, he gives you everything. I think he'd be wasted coming off the bench. In my opinion, EG should make his offseason decisions with DMac in mind. At this point, I think he's untradeable. Damn, I'm salivating here thinking about a lineup of Haywood and DMac. What do you guys think?

[bulletproof_32]

Nate posed a question in the game thread about who should be the 5th starter next year and I personally think that barring any crazy trades this off-season we'll start the 09 season with a lineup of GA, DS, CB, AJ, Wood. Not saying that's who I think should start but I think that's what the coach of the 09 Wiz will go with.

The only way I could see DMAC supplanting DS in the starting lineup is if he works his arse off with Hopla this summer to develop a consistent spot up 3. His mechanics on his spot ups in the 18-20 foot range have looked pretty good recently (especially tonight against the Bulls) but (among other things) he's really going to need to extend his range out to 24 feet in order to enter the starting lineup conversation.

[lupin]

Really depends on the coach. A real outsider will have an objective view about the roster.

When I saw the title of this thread I thought it would be about keeping McGuire from winding up in a Spurs uniform...

[doclinkin]

We talked about this a bit in the long-term plan thread.

No problem at all. Dominic is an ideal fit next to Gil et al. What you have to understand is that in the Princeton hybrid sets we're playing, Dominic has been playing in the off-guard position for a little while now. Notice most of the time Caron is not face-up at the top of the key expected to create off the dribble. In fact Dom will often initiate the drive from up there then pass off.

Now as a '2-guard' Dom is the top rebounder and top shotblocker in the league. And over the past few games has begun to develop bro-diculous shooting efficiency as well. He doesn't have to be able to hit the three to play next to Gil, he just has to be able to hit an open shot and do _something_ of use without the ball. That he does, in spades. Pass, defend, bring the ball up, lead the break.

Dom guards 4 positions, where DSteve guards three. And he pulls down boards where Stevenson does little to nothing. McGuire alters shots as well, and makes perimeter players second-guess. Most importantly he covers for Jamison defensively. Whichever player is the mismatch SF/PF, Dominic takes the assignment. Factor in the concept that DSteve's injury is likely a career-long problem from here on out (according to the Drs. and especially based on the idea that DSteve has refused to ever consider surgery) and Dominic becomes the only answer.

And he makes Caron better, since opponents aren't sure whom to send their SF after. When the shorter Caron is matched on a 2-guard he beats them into bloody stool in the post.

Will Dom be better when he can get confidence with his outside shot, yes. Though he's hitting a 50% clip this year on his limited attempts, suggesting that confidence and repetitions are all it'll take. But he's gonna be left wide open right now for a while with Caron and Jamison on either side of him. Mike James is a Gilbertesque player, it bodes well that Caron can set him up and make him look good. But next to Gil, Dmac will be left wide open for well long enough to line-up that shot and step into it. No 'Mr 19%' right there.

No problem, no question. I think we can stick with the kid and be happy with the ultimate result. Dom next to Haywood will be a pretty solid core to start with. Imagine if McGee developed into a PF between the two. Now that would be completely silly. Mania-inducing. Seems to me.

[Ruzious]

Basically, Dom has the old JarJeff role - and he's even got the poor jump shot that Jeffries established for the role. But luckily, he's much more aggressive than The Big Oface - making him on the verge of being a much more effective role player. I like the plan of him starting and having the more offensive-minded player coming off the bench.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If EJ were still the coach, Dom would be the SG and he'd be a better version of Jared Jeffries. I believe McGuire's like Jared and Boris Diaw in that he can play 2, 3, or 4 pretty effectively. Here's how Dom lines up statistically with those two players each his second NBA season:

* (doclinkin made a comparison like this in another thread and I thought it was interesting to try and project what player Dom will become)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... 01&y3=2005

Per-36 Minutes for each player in second NBA season

Code: Select all

     FG FGA  FG%  3P  3PA  3P% FT FTA  FT%  ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF  PTS
Diaw 3.0 7.0 .435 0.2 0.9 .197 1.3 2.0 .665 1.9 4.0 5.9 3.8 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.6 7.6
Jeff 3.4 8.7 .389 0.1 0.6 .222 2.0 3.3 .605 3.4 4.5 7.9 1.8 0.9 0.5 2.1 3.9 8.9
McGu 2.3 5.6 .419 0.1 0.2 .300 1.1 1.8 .615 2.5 5.3 7.8 2.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 3.3 5.8

Dominic is a far better shotblocker than either Diaw or Jeffries. He's as good a rebounder as Jeffries, who was a very strong rebounder for his position with the Wizards. Dom's Ast/TO (not shown) is virtually identical to Diaw's. Although Dom doesn't have the assist totals of Diaw there's reason to believe McGuire could really distribute the ball as well in an emerging role.

McGuire IMO could already be the Wizards SG of the future. I think he lines up real well next to Gil because McGuire defends the perimeter very well. Dom's lack of offense would be no problem at all next to Gil because McGuire's so effective doing other things.

[tkunit]

Trade Caron for a real 2 guard. I can feel the hate already but that is what we should do.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Trade Caron for a real 2 guard. I can feel the hate already but that is what we should do.

Honestly, if Vince Carter were 2-3 years younger I'd say it's a no-brainer.

Carter's game is fading now but for years he's been underrated as a defender and distributor at both the SG and SF positions.

Personally, IMO Caron's tough just like EJ said and a guy who seems steadier to me, but Carter's an athletic freak who's not overmatched physically on either side of the ball. He's not as good any more but at one time Vince could get just about any shot he wanted on the court and he could finish with the best of them.

tkunit, yep, the haters will come. One thing I will say is make that trade and I'd hate to play New Jersey. Caron would go off each time against the Wiz.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

What I would do is not trade Butler at all. Wizards probably could address SG in the draft. Maybe Terrance Williams? Big SG who can defend, rebound, and distribute.

I would like to see the Wizards try and get somebody like Bruce Bowen on their roster, I guess in place of DeShawn Stevenson. Bowen wouldn't play much at all but he'd be a coach on the floor for Nick Young and to a lesser extent Dominic (because he doesn't need that much help defensively).

Ironicallly, DeShawn would also help the Spurs IMO. He can move his feet and defend and he makes few turnovers. I just think Dom has more upside and that the Wizards need to add more well rounded SG than Nick.

A guy the Wizards could trade is Nick Young IF they don't plan on using him as a go-to scorer a la Rip Hamilton. That's all Nick can do well IMO. That said, I'd trade DeShawn before I'd trade Nick.

[nate33]

Trade Caron for a real 2 guard. I can feel the hate already but that is what we should do.

Who did you have in mind? Who is good enough and young enough (and available enough) to be considered in a trade? This hypothetical SG should also have a good contract.

I'd trade Butler for Brandon Roy in a heartbeat, but I don't see Portland pulling the trigger.

Talentwise, Joe Johnson would make sense, but Atlanta needs another small forward like they need a hole in the head, and Johnson costs $4M more than Butler - not to mention he's a flight risk in 2010.

The only other guy I can think of that might make sense is Kevin Martin, but I don't think he's worth it. He puts up nice numbers but he sure hasn't helped Sacramento win many games. Butler's defense may be inconsistent, but it's also pretty darn good at times. Martin's D is consistently bad.

Most other SG's are either too old or not good enough to be worth Butler.

I'm content with DMac playing SG. As CCJ's numbers show, he's already as good as Jeffries. And if you looked at just his numbers as a starter, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a good bit better than Jeffries.

My dream scenario would be to trade away Stevenson, Young, Etan and our pick, and get back Gerald Henderson, and a quality vet SG/SF like Salmons or M.Miller (and also get some cap relief). If we could go into next year with Butler, M.Miller, Henderson and DMac handling the SG and SF positions, we'd be in damn good shape.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My dream scenario would be to trade away Stevenson, Young, Etan and our pick, and get back Gerald Henderson, and a quality vet SG/SF like Salmons or M.Miller (and also get some cap relief). If we could go into next year with Butler, M.Miller, Henderson and DMac handling the SG and SF positions, we'd be in damn good shape.

Wow, nate, I just got through posting in another thread that Gerald Henderson makes sense for the Wizards only if Young's traded.

Also, watching Salmons yesterday I couldn't help thinking that guy would be terrific as the Wizards SG.

[dobrojim]

Basically, Dom has the old JarJeff role - and he's even got the poor jump shot that Jeffries established for the role. But luckily, he's much more aggressive than The Big Oface - making him on the verge of being a much more effective role player. I like the plan of him starting and having the more offensive-minded player coming off the bench.

I take exception to this apparently conventional wisdom that Dom's
jumper is problematic. At the risk of damning with faint praise, it's better
than DeBrick's, it's better than AredEffries. Last year it was problematic.
But he's pretty comfortable sticking that shot right now. He doesn't appear
to have 3 range, but that's OK.

I like him a lot as a role player. He's coming along fine for being
a 2nd yr, 2nd round pick. Would that our 1st rnd pick (07) was developing
as well but that's for another thread.

I agree completely with your conclusion, that he should start ahead of
more offensively gifted, but less well rounded players.

[Ruzious]

Basically, Dom has the old JarJeff role - and he's even got the poor jump shot that Jeffries established for the role. But luckily, he's much more aggressive than The Big Oface - making him on the verge of being a much more effective role player. I like the plan of him starting and having the more offensive-minded player coming off the bench.

I take exception to this apparently conventional wisdom that Dom's
jumper is problematic. At the risk of damning with faint praise, it's better
than DeBrick's, it's better than AredEffries. Last year it was problematic.
But he's pretty comfortable sticking that shot right now. He doesn't appear
to have 3 range, but that's OK.

I like him a lot as a role player. He's coming along fine for being
a 2nd yr, 2nd round pick. Would that our 1st rnd pick (07) was developing
as well but that's for another thread.

I agree completely with your conclusion, that he should start ahead of
more offensively gifted, but less well rounded players.

The conventional wisdom has basis in fact - in this case. Per 82games.com, Dom's EFG% on jump shots is a putrified 31.4% this season. Stevenson - even with his injuries and horrific slump is .376 this season and was .481 last season. But I have no doubt that Dom will improve.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Poor mans Andrei Kirilenko. I'll take it. He fills up the stat sheet and has an impact almost every game in one way or the other.

He's better than DeShawn already. Please don't send him back on the bench. He's the perfect guy to have on the court next to three star caliber scorers.

[barelyawake]

I certainly can live with Dom, Caron, Crit, Arenas and Young manning the guard rotation. I think there are several combos there that are championship quality. I'd rather have a vet than Young. Anthony Parker would be nice. A vet PG would be better, but I can't find one I like that is available. But, I certainly have no problem with having the above rotation next year, as we figure out what needs minor tweaking. I have no problem with keeping Young (I like his upside). But, if we can get value out of trading him, and can get a tougher vet here with higher b-ball IQ, I would certainly do that. I think it's always good to keep a tough-minded, vet guard around (especially one with a lil clout), when you have Arenas. Just to assure that the ego stays in check -- and his defense/distribution growth progresses. That means look for tougher ADs, not more TMACs.

[doclinkin]

The conventional wisdom has basis in fact - in this case. Per 82games.com, Dom's EFG% on jump shots is a putrified 31.4% this season.

Based on an early run of horrible shooting. If you iso for his more recent games (since starting say) he's hauling that % up from the gutter. Here's the quick sort:

http://tinyurl.com/d2u7dy

Granted that's tips dunks and jumpers mixed, but he's got a rack of good high% games in the mix.

[dlts20]

I totally disagree with everyone. Last year everyone was acting like Caron was one of the best players in the league and even better then Gil but now he is average? Even in the offseason everyone was saying that we needed to add another guy like Posey or anyone to play backup SF and now Dmac is GOD?

1st off I think Tap is an idiot for starting Dmac at the 3 and Caron at the 2. No one would be questioning Caron if he was still at the 3 and was playing with a real PG. Now Caron catches the rock behind the 3pt line on most plays and has to create off the dribble. Alot of times we go inside, start swinging the ball, and Caron ends up with it behind the arch with a man right on him. What is he going to do after that? Its not his game. Put him back at the 3, let him catch the ball on the wings in his sweet spot, and you will see him being a consistant dominant player again. At the 2 he will be average, espicialy without a real PG or another scorer beside him at the 3.

Im the biggest Dom fan there is but if were fully healthy next year then you need to start Deshawn. Again, I swear everyone forgets how good this cat was when we were all healthy. I thought he was maybe the best role player in the leauge that 1st year. Shooting 50% from the field, 40% from the 3pt line, over 80% from the FT line, and was one of the best perimiter defenders in the league. I also felt that it was his great passing skill that made Caron and Gil start to make better passes. Deshawn was the 1st one. He also had the ability to play the point when needed. How come everyone forgets that. He did all of that even with a slow start that year. After like the first 10 games, he probably shot close to 60% the rest of the year and 50% from the 3pt line until we got hurt late. It seemed like he never missed. Also, if you have the big 3 & Wood then most likely you will need someone with 3pt range to stretch the D.

That way you can still keep Dom off the bench with his energy. With that being said, we all have to wait and see. Deshawn may still suck and I wouldnt be shocked if Dom & Caron look a ton better with Gil on the floor pushing the rock. I still think that if Dom does start though then it should be at the 2 or were still hurting ourselves. Tap is just an idiot. If he switched now then Caron would be a monster while Dom would still be getting the wide open shots and driving so why not make the move? Are they that dumb. The bottom line is that I have always felt that the young guys would look 10x better with Gil on the floor and we all know that no matter what, Deshawn will still get some minutes. That means that Deshawn almost has to start or you will have 2 SG's on the bench and a PG in Critt. Thats even if were able to get rid of James. If not then you will have like 20 guards on the bench and no SF's. It just makes more sense to start Deshawn but also dont got down in flames with him like our other idiot coaches have.

[doclinkin]

One of the most impressive players of the night was Dominic McGuire, who continues to prove he can be a player in this league, pulling down 11 rebounds, handing out four assists, scoring 10 points and posting three blocks. I asked him about his impressive passing tonight, which on more than one occasion led to highlight worthy plays for Jamison and Butler.


"I take pride in my passing," Dom said. "I used to play quarterback, so I have great court vision and see things before they happen, so that's why it works."


Dom on his big block on Tim Thomas early in the fourth quarter: "I probably caught him by surprise. I messed up my wrist on that. I thought I had him the next time also, but he said it was a foul, but I didn't think so."


Dom on his versatility, which is starting to serve the Wizards well: "I try to focus on my all-around game and not just be one-dimensional. There are a lot of scorers in this league, so if you can do other things, you'll stick around. I've always been a versatile player, now I'm getting the minutes to show what I can do, so that's the biggest thing and just going out there and playing with confidence."

Linketty.

[nate33]

Im the biggest Dom fan there is but if were fully healthy next year then you need to start Deshawn. Again, I swear everyone forgets how good this cat was when we were all healthy. I thought he was maybe the best role player in the leauge that 1st year. Shooting 50% from the field, 40% from the 3pt line, over 80% from the FT line, and was one of the best perimiter defenders in the league. I also felt that it was his great passing skill that made Caron and Gil start to make better passes. Deshawn was the 1st one. He also had the ability to play the point when needed. How come everyone forgets that. He did all of that even with a slow start that year. After like the first 10 games, he probably shot close to 60% the rest of the year and 50% from the 3pt line until we got hurt late. It seemed like he never missed.

That's not true. He started off shooting about 50% but his FG% actually dwindled in the 2nd half of the season.

The bottom line is that I have always felt that the young guys would look 10x better with Gil on the floor and we all know that no matter what, Deshawn will still get some minutes.

Exactly. But if DMac is already playing well now, think of how good he'll look with Arenas around.

[nate33]

The conventional wisdom has basis in fact - in this case. Per 82games.com, Dom's EFG% on jump shots is a putrified 31.4% this season.

Based on an early run of horrible shooting. If you iso for his more recent games (since starting say) he's hauling that % up from the gutter. Here's the quick sort:

http://tinyurl.com/d2u7dy

Granted that's tips dunks and jumpers mixed, but he's got a rack of good high% games in the mix.

That's a creative way of screening for specific stretches of games. I'm gonna have to steal that idea!