ginobili

[DallasShalDune]

Something Lyrical posted struck me just now. Sometimes you have to consider why your potential trading partner wants to give you a player for a pick, especially when that potential trading partner has the track record in personnel that Pop has.

I am now re-thinking my "pro" stance with respect to acquiring Manu.

Yeah, Erinie should play it like this:

*Phone rings...*

Pop: "Hello?"
EG: "Hey, Pop! How's it hanging?"
Pop: "A little to the left but the Mrs. doesn't mind. You given any thought to my offer of Manu for the #5?"
EG: "Sure have. I think we might be able to make a deal!"
Pop: "Great! Let me start the paperwork."
EG: "By the way, just curious - who you guys gonna take?"
Pop; "Let me tell ya, we're really excited about [Player Name] and..."

*CLICK*

With the 5th pick in the 2009 NBA draft, the Washington Wizards select [insert whoever Pop said he was going to pick]".

That is hilarious, and it isn't even a knock on Ernie! That'd be genius!

[Ruzious]

If the rumored offer is in fact what's on the table, I'd to it in a second. Yeah, Manu got hurt last season. But he was as good as ever when he played, and this injury doesn't tell me he's breaking down. The 5th plus Blatche would be well worth the price, in my opinion.

I saw comments here from someone saying they wouldn't want to give up both Young and McGuire. Let's be honest -- both guys are AT BEST off-the-bench role players on a good team. For Manu, I'd trade them both plus add stuff.

And for those concerned about whether Manu is breaking down, umm... don't. Manu's contract expires after next season. That's double-edged, in my opinion. If he breaks down, great -- the Wiz are rid of him with no further obligation. If he's fantastic -- something that's possible considering his playing ability and the fact that it's a contract year -- his pricetag might be too steep. Regardless, a healthy Manu is one of the best guards in the league, and he'd make a formidable backcourt with Gil. He's worth the risk. Especially if the team is giving up something like Blatche and the pick.

Sorry TSW. I agree with you 99% of the time, but I can't go along with you on this. Manu can't stay healthy even though Popovich curtails his minutes more so than any other top tier player. Let me put it this way: in each of the past 5 years, Caron "Glassman" Butler has played more total minutes than Manu did in the healthiest season of his career. Manu is a fabulous player when healthy and he's a perfect fit on this team, but the risk is just too great.

As usual, the problem boils down to the fact that our Big Three just isn't good enough to seriously compete for a title. It's foolish to sacrifice signficant assets to find a short term fix at SG because no matter who we add, we just won't be good enough to win it all. The focus needs to be to upgrade Jamison, or perhaps Butler. We can worry about quality depth after improving our core.

It should be 100%. That's the way they run things in San Ant - they make sure they don't wear down the big 3 during the regular season. Not only does that keep them fresh, it gets the "supporting cast" plenty of PT. Unfortunately, sometimes their supporting cast resembles a quality... rec league team. Duncan's played about 33 minutes a game for years, and I'm too lazy to look up Mr. Longoria.

But like I said - if he's healthy, wouldn't SA be crazy to trade him? It's the same logic as the Wizards with Arenas. If Arenas is healthy, the Wiz'd be nuts to trade him. If I'm missing something there, someone tell me what it is.

[clubbing_caveman]

Folks, its obvious to me that we are in a "win now" mode. The window of opportunity is 2 or 3 years, given the make up of the current squad. So, is (Ginobili + Hill) = (Blatche + #5)? As many have said Ginobili is injury prone. However, when he is on, he is on. He does have to pass the medical before the trade gets consummated. Ginobili still has 2 more good years in him, I think, if he is 100% healthy. Ginobili is a smart player...meaning his b-ball IQ is pretty good. He can make plays. Blatche has had his ups and downs here. Couple of black marks on his record. He is still immature, and I for one, dont think he will grow out of it while in DC. If he develops, he can be pretty good...a 12 pts 10 reb player. If he doesnt mature (mentally and physically), he will remain where he is now. His b-ball IQ is pretty low, IMO. Is Hill = #5 pick? Given this years draft class, I'd have to say yes. As others have said, we cant do a 2 for 1 trade. So, chances are there is another player involved...maybe DeBrick. If so, I probably wouldnt do that trade. However I would strongly consider Gino + Hill + future 2011 pick FOR Blatche + DeBrick + #5. I think something like this may be whats on the table. We dont need any more young players right now. However, when this team collectively starts to decline in 2 years, we'd need those picks. Keep in mind that this could be just the first of a few moves...

[TheSecretWeapon]

If the rumored offer is in fact what's on the table, I'd to it in a second. Yeah, Manu got hurt last season. But he was as good as ever when he played, and this injury doesn't tell me he's breaking down. The 5th plus Blatche would be well worth the price, in my opinion.

I saw comments here from someone saying they wouldn't want to give up both Young and McGuire. Let's be honest -- both guys are AT BEST off-the-bench role players on a good team. For Manu, I'd trade them both plus add stuff.

And for those concerned about whether Manu is breaking down, umm... don't. Manu's contract expires after next season. That's double-edged, in my opinion. If he breaks down, great -- the Wiz are rid of him with no further obligation. If he's fantastic -- something that's possible considering his playing ability and the fact that it's a contract year -- his pricetag might be too steep. Regardless, a healthy Manu is one of the best guards in the league, and he'd make a formidable backcourt with Gil. He's worth the risk. Especially if the team is giving up something like Blatche and the pick.

Sorry TSW. I agree with you 99% of the time, but I can't go along with you on this. Manu can't stay healthy even though Popovich curtails his minutes more so than any other top tier player. Let me put it this way: in each of the past 5 years, Caron "Glassman" Butler has played more total minutes than Manu did in the healthiest season of his career. Manu is a fabulous player when healthy and he's a perfect fit on this team, but the risk is just too great.

As usual, the problem boils down to the fact that our Big Three just isn't good enough to seriously compete for a title. It's foolish to sacrifice signficant assets to find a short term fix at SG because no matter who we add, we just won't be good enough to win it all. The focus needs to be to upgrade Jamison, or perhaps Butler. We can worry about quality depth after improving our core.

I understand all that, and I'd still make the trade. It's worth the risk in my opinion, because I don't think the Wiz will get a significant player at 5, and I don't have a high opinion of Blatche or Young. I think 1-4 years of 65 games (plus playoffs) of Ginobili is worth more to the Wiz than the next decade of what they'll get from the 5 plus Blatche or Young. Yes it's a risk, but it's a relatively low cost one because the assets they'd be giving up aren't high value, and they can get move on from the risk after just one season if they want.

The assets folks are resisting parting with are eminently replaceable. You can get guys as productive as Young or Blatche without a lot of trouble. I haven't researched the 5th pick, but my guess is that you're just as likely to get a mediocre player or a scrub than you are a quality pro. Guys like Ginobili are much rarer. Well worth the health risk, in my opinion.

Obviously, if there's a player as good with a better track record that the Wiz could acquire with this kind of package, they should do that instead. Who's that player, though? Where's that rumor? In this scenario, I think the Wiz would improve by acquiring Manu.

[nate33]

Folks, its obvious to me that we are in a "win now" mode.

That's just the problem. I contend that we aren't in "win now" mode because we lack the talent. I think we're better off looking 2-3 years down the road when Arenas, Butler and Haywood are still in their prime and Blatche, Young, McGuire, McGee and the #5 are experienced enough to be consistent.

If we want to win now, we need to acquire Bosh or Amare.

[fishercob]

Folks, its obvious to me that we are in a "win now" mode.

That's just the problem. I contend that we aren't in "win now" mode because we lack the talent. I think we're better off looking 2-3 years down the road when Arenas, Butler and Haywood are still in their prime and Blatche, Young, McGuire, McGee and the #5 are experienced enough to be consistent.

If we want to win now, we need to acquire Bosh or Amare.

Disagree. The Orlando-Cleveland series proved to me that if healthy and with an upgrade or two, we can win the East.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Unless we acquire a franchise big man like Bosh or Stoudemire, no way in hell we beat Orlando or Cleveland in a playoff series. An aging SG who is most likely beyond his prime will not put us over the top in the East nor will it solve our biggest problem which is interior defense and offense.

I would love to have the Ginobili that made huge plays for the Spurs game after game in the playoffs. So would San Antonio. If they are shopping, they obviously believe an upgrade is available because they sure aren't rebuilding with Duncan and Parker still on the roster. Vince Carter and Rip Hamilton don't make us all that better either. A quality SG won't put this team over the top.

[albert]

I love the civility between the WAS and SAS boards, both trying to figure out the details to the trade offer. Very commendable.

[LyricalRico]

Unless we acquire a franchise big man like Bosh or Stoudemire, no way in hell we beat Orlando or Cleveland in a playoff series. An aging SG who is most likely beyond his prime will not put us over the top in the East nor will it solve our biggest problem which is interior defense and offense.

I'm not so sure about that.

We've already proven we can match up with Cleveland. As long as LeBron isn't allowed to blatantly travel I like our chances against them, especially now that their frontcourt has gotten older and their bench has gotten weaker. They could lose Verajso in free agency and their only trade pieces are an aging ilgauskas and Big Ben's expiring contract. Barring a Kwame-for-Gasol-like deal, if we have a healthy Gil plus Manu we'd be favored to beat them in a second round series IMO.

As for Orlando, I like our chances against them with Ginobili also. We've got the ability to defend Howard without double-teaming because of Haywood. Jamison/Butler and Lewis/Turkgolu cancel each other out IMO. We then have advantages at the point (Gil > Nelson), SG (Manu > Lee/Pietrus), and frontcourt depth (especially if they can't afford to re-sign Gortat).

Boston will be older next year and have even less depth if they are forced to choose between Big Baby and Powe. Atlanta isn't ready to contend, Miami won't spend the $$$ to get better until 2010, and Philly is being coached by Eddie Jordan. None of them scare me.

[Dat2U]

And for those concerned about whether Manu is breaking down, umm... don't. Manu's contract expires after next season. That's double-edged, in my opinion. If he breaks down, great -- the Wiz are rid of him with no further obligation. If he's fantastic -- something that's possible considering his playing ability and the fact that it's a contract year -- his pricetag might be too steep. Regardless, a healthy Manu is one of the best guards in the league, and he'd make a formidable backcourt with Gil. He's worth the risk. Especially if the team is giving up something like Blatche and the pick.

I'm sorry, how can you validate Ginobili being worth a two of our best trade assets when its very possible and quite likely we may only get one year out of him. It's not "great" if he breaks down b/c that would mean we gave away the 5th pick for nothing. There's also no sure bet that he resigns with us if he even manages to stay healthy next year.

If we were on a cusp of competing for a title or had our own version of KG in the mix and this move could be the final piece of the puzzle, I'd say it would be a risk that's worth taking but Nate is right, we are not contending for a title. The talent isn't there, and no team with Antawn Jamison defending PFs for 40 minutes a night is going to win anything.

Paying the 5th & Blatche for Ginobili would be like selling your soul for a one year run at the 2nd round and that's only if all parts could stay healthy.

To me you have to look at the trade partner involved. This is San Antonio were talking about. I believe the notion that San Antonio would be crazy to trade Ginobili if he was healthy is dead on. Something is up if they willing to deal him for a '#5 pick in a weak draft and a backup PF'. We may devalue our own assets but it's the best assets we have without giving up a member of the big three or our most talented young player in Javale.

San Antonio may be looking for a sucker to take on someone they feel has seen his best years and get value while they still can before he hits free agency next year. Based on his age, style of play and how much they've limited his minutes in the past I have to believe the Wizards would be getting the short end of the stick.

I'm all for taking risks but trading young for old & short for tall just seems like this organization's MO, whether its Nash, Unseld or Jordan making the deal. I guess EG feels like he might need to get in on that action too. It's too short-sided and potentially a devasting setback to the roster long term.

[Wizards2Lottery]

Unless we acquire a franchise big man like Bosh or Stoudemire, no way in hell we beat Orlando or Cleveland in a playoff series. An aging SG who is most likely beyond his prime will not put us over the top in the East nor will it solve our biggest problem which is interior defense and offense.

I'm not so sure about that.

We've already proven we can match up with Cleveland. As long as LeBron isn't allowed to blatantly travel I like our chances against them, especially now that their frontcourt has gotten older and their bench has gotten weaker. They could lose Verajso in free agency and their only trade pieces are an aging ilgauskas and Big Ben's expiring contract. Barring a Kwame-for-Gasol-like deal, if we have a healthy Gil plus Manu we'd be favored to beat them in a second round series IMO.

As for Orlando, I like our chances against them with Ginobili also. We've got the ability to defend Howard without double-teaming because of Haywood. Jamison/Butler and Lewis/Turkgolu cancel each other out IMO. We then have advantages at the point (Gil > Nelson), SG (Manu > Lee/Pietrus), and frontcourt depth (especially if they can't afford to re-sign Gortat).

Boston will be older next year and have even less depth if they are forced to choose between Big Baby and Powe. Atlanta isn't ready to contend, Miami won't spend the $$$ to get better until 2010, and Philly is being coached by Eddie Jordan. None of them scare me.

To many hypothetical situations. Cleveland and Orlando are teams that have shown the willingness to play on both ends of the court. Talent is only half the battle but at the end of the day, you have to be able to be solid on both ends of the court to contend.

Simply acquiring Manu doesn't improve our defense or the teams willingness to defend. Also, it's easy to create situations where you believe Haywood can defend Howard but once playoff time rolls around, Howard is sure to get Haywood in foul trouble, especially since he is a superstar who will get the benefit of the doubt.. Then we have Blatche, Songaila and Thomas to defend him who will all get their breakfast, lunch and dinner eaten by D12. Same for LeBron, who guards him? You know Cleveland will defend their tails off and they will score with LeBron. Will we do the same?

The Celtics, Cavaliers and Magic are all better than us in a four game series because they defend and have superstars who want to defend, setting an example for the bench and role players. Our team despite how hard it might try will remain an offensive team, especially with all this talk of adding a scoring SG though Ginobili would be head and shoulders above anyone on this team in terms of defense.

[P'Oed]

I'm not sure this makes any sense at all. We were making a run at an upgrade at the 4 and all of the sudden we have to have ourselves a shiny, new shooting guard? And hey, forget shiny and new anyway, the guy is close to done. Something isn't right here. Could it be possible that this is just part of a 3-way trade?

[Dat2U]

Folks, its obvious to me that we are in a "win now" mode.

That's just the problem. I contend that we aren't in "win now" mode because we lack the talent. I think we're better off looking 2-3 years down the road when Arenas, Butler and Haywood are still in their prime and Blatche, Young, McGuire, McGee and the #5 are experienced enough to be consistent.

If we want to win now, we need to acquire Bosh or Amare.

Disagree. The Orlando-Cleveland series proved to me that if healthy and with an upgrade or two, we can win the East.

Disagree. The Orlando-Cleveland series did not prove to me that Jamison could defend the PF position.

Orlando has Dwight Howard to cover for Rashard Lewis. And while Lewis is no lockdown defender he's at least capable of moving his feet and being active on D. And while I love Haywood he's no Dwight Howard.

Also I'd have hard time believing that Boston wouldn't have beaten Orlando if KG was healthy.

All the Orlando/Cleveland series showed is that if surround a low post beast like Dwight Howard with four shooters, you can make it tough for a defense to account for all the scoring options.

[WizarDynasty]

the whole point of getting manu at 32 is because he automatically boost nick young's value. What make Manu so valuable is high basketball iq at the shooting guard spot. If Nick Young imitates and learns the secrets of Manu, we would have the second coming of manu for years to come since Manu and Young are built the same physically. Nick young lacks championship basketball IQ and maturity for a shooting guard that Manu possesses.
I see Nick blossoming into a superstar under the guidance of Manu. There are only a handful of shooting guards in the nba that have at least made the all nba third team and manu is one of them.
It's the basketball IQ to be an allstar in this league..is the invaluable asset that Manu brings. Manu brings to this team more than anything that has to be valued. This is classic EG move. He loves bringing in Vets with high IQ like AD or Songalia and we often see a spike in Basketball IQ and maturity..aka Haywood with Songalia and Arenas with AD.
Manu brings the championship mentality and leadership and proven record needed. The team has the physical talent, and now it needs the players who aren't that far removed from being all nba allstars. We automatically get the best teachings of the successful Greg Popovich sytem with the addition of Manu.

[Rafael122]

I've been back and forth on this all day. Clearly, this tells me Ernie is looking for a 2 guard.

But anyway, I agree with TSW here. If it doesn't work out, the only thing we have given up is Snatch and the 5th pick. So ask yourself this, would you do that trade for Manu?

And like TSW, if it doesn't work out, fine...its a 2 year rental, but if he can completely change a team? Would it be worth it if we got to the 2nd round, maybe even the conference finals?

I'm 50/50 on it though. I'd rather have Amare, but its not like Manu is 37 years old and at the twilight of his career. He's probably got 3 years left.

[clubbing_caveman]

That's just the problem. I contend that we aren't in "win now" mode because we lack the talent.
If we want to win now, we need to acquire Bosh or Amare.

I think we have the talent to compete at a very good level. We have the talent to get us into the playoffs, where anything can happen. We didnt have a defensive coach or a playoff-mature coach to lead us once we got into the playoffs. When healthy, the big 3 can compete and win. I believe that the record shows that when healthy, the big 3 can win games. You'll probably want proof of this, and I think previous posters have done this leg work in the past. I recall you mentioning this same argument in the past and it did generate some "proof in the pudding" responses. If you dont believe it, for now lets just say for arguments sake that this is true. Given the age of the big 3, most will agree that we have 2-3 years to do something. Providing that Ginobili passes the physical, this will give us a good SG + backup PG (+ hopefully future pick) for our #5 + Blatche + some lesser player. Yes, I think we probably need Amare or Bosh, or some player like that. So, maybe we arent done after this Ginobili trade. Would future 2010 pick + future Spurs pick + McGee + James get us Amare or Bosh? Doesnt EG have another big stashed away somewhere in Europe?

[FreeBalling]

Folks, its obvious to me that we are in a "win now" mode.

That's just the problem. I contend that we aren't in "win now" mode because we lack the talent. I think we're better off looking 2-3 years down the road when Arenas, Butler and Haywood are still in their prime and Blatche, Young, McGuire, McGee and the #5 are experienced enough to be consistent.

If we want to win now, we need to acquire Bosh or Amare.

I see it the same way Nate, with the 5th pick we can save a little cash.

But I'm all for bringing Bosh to DC.

[Rafael122]

BTW, also something to think about: this was probably leaked from someone in the Wizards front office to get the word out about what type of offers the Wizards are getting and/or asking for. It's like they are indirectly saying "we could get Manu for the 5th pick, so sweeten your offer."

[Benjammin]

I'm enjoying the good give and take of the arguments. We really have an astute group on our board. There are some fundamental questions this rumor poses:

1. Would trading for Ginobili make the Wizards legitimate title contenders?
2. How much does Ginobili have left?
3. What is the value of the 5th pick and someone like Blatche?


1. I think a healthy Ginobili (with a healthy roster and the planets all aligning perfectly) would make the Wizards a very dangerous team that would cause matchup problems 1-3 (PG,SG, SF). A healthy Boston has more talent overall, yet they are aging. Orlando if they keep their team together should only get better. We have to wait to assess Cleveland to see what moves they may make, yet no one should question their defense. The Wizards will still be weak defensively at the 4 and overall at the forward spots. That is not helped by trading away Blatche. Even with Ginobili and everything aligning perfectly, I think the Lakers are still more talented, along with having championship experience and playing defense (they keep Odom/Ariza or a reasonable facsimile).

2. How much does Ginobili have left? This is the question. He's played a lot of minutes (taking into account playoffs and international play) yet when his minutes are limited in the regular season he still seems injury prone. He'll be 32 in July. He has a very reckless style of play, but also a high skill level that is not completely dependent upon his athleticism. While the sins of the past should not deter the Wizards from making a move, band-aid basketball has not worked well for them in the past 28 years or so.

3. What is the value of the 5th pick and Blatche (another young player)? This is a weak draft, but at the 5th pick will there be someone who can be a consistently good performer on a reasonable contract for the next four years? I think the answer to that question is "yes" (Curry, Harden, Evans). I've heard that Blatche's contributions are easily replaced. At 3 million a year, I don't think so. People get wrapped up in what Blatche does not do or how he will never reach his potential, and lose sight of the contributions he does make at a very reasonable rate of pay by NBA big man standards.

The most I give for Manu is the 5th pick and salary filler. With that I'd like to get George Hill as well (selfish I know). I would be okay with trading Nick Young, but certainly not Blatche. The risk/benefit ratio just isn't good when you pay too much for an aging, beat up Manu.

[WizarDynasty]

When healthy, the big 3 can compete and win. I believe that the record shows that when healthy, the big 3 can win games.

I think the Big 3 theory has already been shot down. If none of your big three excels in defense then the big three isn't going anywhere.
The original big dynasty was based on michael jordan, scottie pippen, and horace grant. The original big three all excel both of offensive and defense.
Our version of the big three is based on a boat load of perimeter shots and arenas drawing fouls with no defense played. The failed phoenix suns theory is that we can outscore our opponents by playing a fast paced offense. Phoenix got nowhere in the playoffs with the run and gun offense just like the wizards didn't.
So again a person needs to understand who the original successful big three dynasty was and that was bulls. Each of the big three members was above average on defense. Michael and Scottie were first team nba defenders. None of our big three even scratches the surface of being on the all nba second team defense. Cartwright to the big three was what Bendan Haywood is to us. shotblocker who is mechanical in the post. Horace Grant was a defensive rebounder who could score inside and shotblock. That was the big three. Horace Grant and Jamison can't even begin to compare to Horace Grant on defense and post offense. Arenas on defense compared to michael jordan on defense...not even close. Scottie Pippen on defense compared to Caron Butler on defense. Not even close. So again people, the original BIG THREE were two way players that were above average defenders. Our Big Three is a scam. Arenas is the only one that has made second team all-nba and not one player on our squad has ever made the all nba second team defense in their entire careers in the nba.
So to say the big three can win games..is a paints a picture that our Big Three deserve to be compared to original BIG THREE that Horace grant..the THREE PEAT. That is the successful mold for building the BIG THREE. Our Big Three is something to make wizard fan base feel good but not one member of the big three compares to the TRUE BIG THREE of the Chicago Dynasty Three Peat Dynasty. So if you want success, you study success from the past and that's why EJ got fired for pumping up a shadow of the real big three to the media. Hopefully EG sees the truth before his job gets axed by Leonsis and develop the GM tools needed to predict which players will develop into all nba defensive players with above average offensive ability. True GM skills.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three#Basketball

and then look at the Big Three Dynasty back in 1994-1995. Scottie and Michael first team all nba defense..and guess who is second team all team defensive you bet..Horace Grant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Defensive_Team
Not one of our so called BIG THREE even sniffs all nba second team defense. People are completely lost when understanding DYNASTIES that made up the big three..all of them had two top defensive players as part of the big three. The wizard big three is FRAUD.

The bulls were smart enough to get Rodman..a player who had already made the all defensive nba team to replace Horace Grant when he left their dynasty. Our Blueprint and hope of the future to be contenders for years based purely on offense is naive. EG has led his sheep astray.