Wizards vs. Bucks (Wednesday, December 2nd)

[closg00]

Re: Jennings

I have to say that I was surprised how deferential he was, I was expecting him to be a lot more of an aggressive scorer, perhaps he was asked to pass more after he dropped 55 once. Still, Jennings has a bright future at PG, it's all upside now.

[queridiculo]

Butler's stat line wasn't gaudy, but his 6 RBs, 4 assists, largely solid D, and highlight reel dunk made this maybe his best game to me. I don't care if he averages 14-16 PPG, if he plays like this every night, Miller comes back, and Arenas keeps pushing forward, this wreck might just come together.

My main beef with Butler to start the season was the amount of shots he was taking. He was shooting at a 16 attempts per game clip while averaging just over 17 points.

Over the past 5 games he's been averaging just over 10 shots with a low of 9 and a high of 12, while largely maintaining his scoring average.

That's a huge jump in efficiency, and our offense, while still looking stagnant and out of sync, has benefitted from the ball being shared more.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ugh, just lost a lengthy post. Will try to quickly reconstruct so I can make some actually money today...

On Earl: Bringing him in in the 4Q is like bringing in a 100 MPH closer when the opposing lineup has been facing a junkballer all night. Very tough change of pace, especially on tired legs. And I've been meaning to point out the guy is NOT a pure PG. He's much more of a shooter/scorer than Muggsy was, but just gets pigeonholed b/c he's teeny.

There are matchups that aren't good for him, but there are plenty that are. Point is, he's a reliable weapon that flip can keep in his quiver (or at least a baby bjorn).

I disagree with D10 about the last two possessions being bad. They just took time to develop. It's hard to play on-ball defense for 15 seconds. Earl ended up making the perfect read on the dish to Haywood, and on the game winner he took advantage of Jennings anxiety to get a hand up. That's just good basketball.

My issue with Earl at the point is that Gil looks very uncomfortable off the ball. But that's just another adjustment Gil has to (and will) make. He either stood still or moved much too deliberately off screens. He needs to watch those same tapes Flip showed to Nick. Gil catching the ball with a little space and a defender off balance will be death to defenses.

Was disappointed McGee got the DNP. I was hoping we'd see him when Bogut was resting, especially since we seemed to excel in transition.

Speaking of Bogut, I was so pleased to see him have a crappy game. As I've mentioned before, he was a real prick when I sat near him during a playoff game (I think vs. Bulls) his senior year, and said he didn't want to come to Washington. Well, Brendan Haywood says hello, a-hole.

Turned to my buddy I was with at the game and asked at one point "has Butler done anything that Mike Miller can't?" Before I could finish the question he answered "NO." Butler wasn't bad. Had a great facial and two sweet dishes. But still took some out of rhythm long jumpers (long two's at that -- groan). I just think Miller's just as good an overall player, and a better fit for this squad.

Stats are funny sometimes. Dray was 5-5 from the field and minus-12!

Bottom line: good win. The rhythm was much better overall and we got the W. Earl is taking a lot of pressure off Gil right now so there's no pressure on him to take over games. Come springtime I think he'll be back to doing just that.

Let's get another one on Friday!

fisher, with Flip being flexible of late and with them winning 4 of 5 I wasn't going to bring that up. I'm glad you did. I won't add to what you said, other than to agree.

[dobrojim]

I was wondering about the very last play which obviously
ended up in our favor (so Flip is a genius) but in a situation
with extremely short time on the game clock and the other
team inbounding the ball, I like the idea of a really tall long
armed defender harassing the person inbounding the ball.
Javale would've been perfect for that 1 second. And he
probably could've played FO minutes. Maybe Flip just
wanted to get FO a little time and figured the advantage
from keeping FO from getting too rusty was worth giving
the youngster the DNP-CD.

[fishercob]

I was wondering about the very last play which obviously
ended up in our favor (so Flip is a genius) but in a situation
with extremely short time on the game clock and the other
team inbounding the ball, I like the idea of a really tall long
armed defender harassing the person inbounding the ball.
Javale would've been perfect for that 1 second. And he
probably could've played FO minutes. Maybe Flip just
wanted to get FO a little time and figured the advantage
from keeping FO from getting too rusty was worth giving
the youngster the DNP-CD.

I had the same thought at the time -- Mcgee, Blatche or McGuire on the ball harassing the passer. Turns out they didnt even guard the passer, which I'm not a fan of (I think they were doubling Jennings). All's well that ends well.

[yungal07]

He might also be the only conservative in the NBA.

I think you have Spencer Hawes too lol.

Jason Smith of the 76ers as well.

Might as well make it all the white guys in the NBA minus Mike Miller.

[montestewart]

You know on the free throws, I don't buy that at all. They shot a lot of free throws and made 74% as a team. That's not leaving points on the floor, that's taking a high volume of free throws and hitting your average.

Look at the box score, Jamison was 3-4. Ok, unlucky break. Butler was 7-10. I mean he took ten frickin free throws, what do you want? Maybe he should've made ONE more. Boykins was 7-10. That's a LOT of free throws, maybe he should've made ONE or TWO more. Haywood was 0-1 - so what? Gil was 1-2 - so what? So maybe -- MAYBE -- we left two points on the floor. That's IT. People make a big deal about us missing 9 free throws -- well, yeah, we took THIRTY FOUR FRICKIN FREE THROWS PEOPLE. We made 74% of them. Statistics is a bitch -- take a lot of free throws and you're going to miss some. That's life.

And don't say, oh man a lot of those were late in the game. So what? That's why the game is 48 minutes. They all count the same.

It's not that simple. Teams generally shoot around 76% from the line, but that's because their guards and skill players shoot in the 80's while their centers and defensive role players shoot in the 60's and low 70's. I expect to shoot 75% as a team in games where Haywood goes 4-8 from the line because I expect Arenas, Boykins, Butler, Young and Jamison to shoot in the mid 80's.

In this game, Haywood shot just 1 free throw. Our (ostensibly) 3 best FT shooters: Arenas, Butler and Boykins, combined for 22 attempts and shot just 68%. I'd dismiss it as a one-time fluke, but it's not. Arenas is averaging just 74% from the line this season. Jamison is shooting just 59% from the line! That's lower than Haywood's 60%.

Still... 80% of 34 is 27. That's only three more than we actually made. Now if they consistently leave three points per game on the floor each game that's a problem, but three within an individual game is just statistics.

And I fully dismiss Jamison shooting 59% as a fluke. He is a career 73% ft shooter and will be by the all-star break, I'd put money on it. Arenas will be an 81% ft shooter by the all star break too. Neither of those outcomes is statistically unlikely for a given month in an eight month season.

I agree (or at least I hope) that Jamison's FT% is a fluke, fallout from his injury. It's too early in the season for me to jump to a conclusion, but when FTs are a large part of your scorers' games and their FT percentages are falling off, it can make a difference in close games, and if the drop off appears long term, other teams might begin to alter defensive strategies, trying to shut down the strengths of their games and gambling on them losing at the foul line

In Arenas' case, his difficulties in finishing (someone observed that he seems to have lost lift in his left leg) and his new-found difficulty in getting favorable calls are further complicated by a lower FT%. Worst case scenario: defenders will foul him more, but he won't get the calls as much, and even when he does, he'll convert at a lower rate.

[nate33]

Hmmm. What about double teaming the passer with two 7-footers? Force the passer to make a high arching lob which will allow the remaining 3 defenders to get under it.

We defintely should have had our longest, most agile players on the court to switch on every screen. The thing is, there was no need to worry about a secondary pass. Whoever got the ball was gonna shoot. I'd have put Haywood, McGee, Blatche, DMac and Young on the court with Blatche on the inbound passer (Blatche probably has the best combination of long arms and quick hands). That leaves Haywood to contend with any big man trying to muscle for position in the lane. McGee, DMac and Young are all fast and long and can chase the guards around and make sure to get a hand in the face on the final shot attempt.

Indeed, that's a drill Flip should work on in practice. Have all the best scorers (Arenas, Foye, Miller, Jamison, Butler) practice trying to get off a shot offensively. Have the longest defenders practice stopping it. The only problem is that Blatche probably belongs on both units. (I'd like to see Blatche as the inbound passer on the offensive unit.)

[closg00]

Hmmm. What about double teaming the passer with two 7-footers? Force the passer to make a high arching lob which will allow the remaining 3 defenders to get under it.

We defintely should have had our longest, most agile players on the court to switch on every screen. The thing is, there was no need to worry about a secondary pass. Whoever got the ball was gonna shoot. I'd have put Haywood, McGee, Blatche, DMac and Young on the court with Blatche on the inbound passer (Blatche probably has the best combination of long arms and quick hands). That leaves Haywood to contend with any big man trying to muscle for position in the lane. McGee, DMac and Young are all fast and long and can chase the guards around and make sure to get a hand in the face on the final shot attempt.

Indeed, that's a drill Flip should work on in practice. Have all the best scorers (Arenas, Foye, Miller, Jamison, Butler) practice trying to get off a shot offensively. Have the longest defenders practice stopping it. The only problem is that Blatche probably belongs on both units. (I'd like to see Blatche as the inbound passer on the offensive unit.)

Agree 100%, this is a common-sense tactic used by coaches and I was surprised that we didn't do it.

[dandridge 10]

I disagree with D10 about the last two possessions being bad. They just took time to develop. It's hard to play on-ball defense for 15 seconds. Earl ended up making the perfect read on the dish to Haywood, and on the game winner he took advantage of Jennings anxiety to get a hand up. That's just good basketball.

Come on Fish, you really believe that ONE guy dribbling around with the ball for 15 seconds (I actually think it was more like 20 seconds) without a single pass is good basketball? I agree that Earl made a nice dish to Haywood and the outcome was good, but any coach would tell you that is not good basketball. If it is because its "hard to play on-ball defense for 15 seconds," Flip might was well just have Earl or Gil dribble the ball for 15-20 seconds every possession until the defense gets tired and then try to make a pass or shot...I'm sure that would go over real well on this board.

[dobrojim]

Skiles suspended for his actions after getting tossed Wed night.