Dr Positivity mock 06/26/13 - Full mock w/ explanations ed.

Dr Positivity · Post #41 » by **Dr Positivity** » Fri Dec 21, 2012 5:28 am

12/20/12

1. Washington Wizards - PF Nerlens Noel (drafting big fits them, Grunfield has had a history of loving athleticism)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG Michael Carter-Williams (CLE uses stats system favoring non scoring stats, and MCW's ast, stl, reb combination per 40 minutes is WTF good. I think CLE is in love with MCW)
3. New Orleans Hornets - C Alex Len (think Len and Goodwin will be consensus BPA after Noel. Len fits their team more)
4. Detroit Pistons - SG Archie Goodwin (I expect Goodwin to separate himself as best SG. Fits Detroit's needs perfectly)
5. Charlotte Bobcats - PF Anthony Bennett (fits their lineup at PF and I expect CHA is smart enough to not be afraid of Bennett's height)
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto Raptors) - C Jeff Withey (Withey's shotblocking at C compliments their team beautifully. I expect Withey vs Zeller to become debate just because of how much shotblocking valued at C)
7. Sacramento Kings - SF Alex Poythress (likely drafting PG or SF. Poythress fits team)
8. Phoenix Suns - SG Shabazz Muhammad (need a scorer + Shabazz will be big faller by this point)
9. Philadephia 76ers - C Cody Zeller (big faller by this point + draft a C to replace Bynum)
10. Phoenix Suns (from Los Angeles Lakers) - C Rudy Gobert (Gortat is on the way out, + with two picks they take risk on Gobert
11. Portland Trailblazers - SG Ben McLemore (will go higher on most mocks. Just with way order ended up in this mock he ended up falling)
12. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart (gives them a long term PG, Nicholson pick last year showed they might be into high IQ/non explosive athletes)
13. Dallas Mavericks - SF Le'Bryan Nash (high upside pick for the Mavs)
14. Utah Jazz - SF Otto Porter (could use a young SF)

Post #42 » by **B Mac** » Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:24 am

You honestly think the Cavs will draft a PG with the 2nd pick in the draft when they have Kyrie? I applaud you for thinking outside of the box in your mocks, but that pick is not going to happen.

Dr Positivity · Post #43 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:56 am

He'd likely start out as 6th man combo-ing PG and SG minutes. It's a weird pick but Cavs have been weird the last 2 years

Dr Positivity · Post #44 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Jan 1, 2013 1:55 am

12/31/12

1. Washington Wizards - PF Nerlens Noel
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Alex Len
3. New Orleans Hornets - SG Ben McLemore
4. Charlotte Bobcats - SG Archie Goodwin
5. Detroit Pistons - SG Shabazz Muhammad
6. Phoenix Suns - C Rudy Gobert
7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) - C Cody Zeller
8. Sacramento Kings - SF Alex Poythress
9. Dallas Mavericks - PF Anthony Bennett
10. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart
11. Philadelphia 76ers - SF Le'Bryan Nash
12. Utah Jazz - PG/SG CJ McCollum
13. LA Lakers - SF/PF Tony Mitchell
14. Portland Trailblazers - PF/C Isaiah Austin

Dr Positivity · Post #45 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Jan 1, 2013 2:03 am

Personal top 10

1. C Alex Len
2. PF Anthony Bennett
3. C Rudy Gobert
4. C Cody Zeller
5. PF/C Isaiah Austin
6. SG Archie Goodwin
7. PG Marcus Smart
8. SG Ben McLemore
9. SF Le'Bryan Nash
10. PG Michael Carter-Williams

chad42 · Post #46 » by **chad42** » Wed Jan 2, 2013 8:57 pm

1)Isaiah Austin 8-)

2)Anthony Bennett
3)Ben Mclemore
4)Willie Cauley-Stein
5)Shabazz Muhammad
6)Kelly Olynyk
7)Nerlens Noel
8)Trey Burk
9)Glenn Robinson III
10)Cody Zeller
11)Tony Mitchell
12)Alex Poythress
13)Otto Porter
14)Russ Smith

comingbacktousa · Post #47 » by **comingbacktousa** » Tue Jan 8, 2013 10:24 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:12/31/12

1. Washington Wizards - PF Nerlens Noel
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - C Alex Len
3. New Orleans Hornets - SG Ben McLemore
4. Charlotte Bobcats - SG Archie Goodwin
5. Detroit Pistons - SG Shabazz Muhammad
6. Phoenix Suns - C Rudy Gobert
7. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) - C Cody Zeller
8. Sacramento Kings - SF Alex Poythress
9. Dallas Mavericks - PF Anthony Bennett
10. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart
11. Philadelphia 76ers - SF Le'Bryan Nash
12. Utah Jazz - PG/SG CJ McCollum
13. LA Lakers - SF/PF Tony Mitchell
14. Portland Trailblazers - PF/C Isaiah Austin

Any reason why you are really high on Le'Bryan Nash? I've noticed you've been pretty high on him all season. He really isn't producing at all. Poor fg % and 3%. I'd rate someone like Glenn Robinson 3 higher than him.

Dr Positivity · Post #48 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Jan 8, 2013 11:52 pm

I care less about college production than 99% of people, so Le'Bryan's shockingly low production doesn't ruffle me that much. I didn't realize just how low he's gotten statistically though, he's back down to a 15.7 PER - on my next mock I'll probably reflect that by dropping him because GMs aren't going to take a player high when he's producing so weakly.

But I love his talent level, other than his size and athleticism IMO his skill game potential is underrated. When he does go off he's doing things like smoothly scoring in the post, hitting outside jumpers (and 80% FT is decent sign of shooting potential), creatively finishing at the rim. I think he has the TALENT to do a lot of the same things in terms of his skill game that Rudy Gay does

Dr Positivity · Post #49 » by **Dr Positivity** » Thu Jan 10, 2013 5:21 am

01/09/13

1. Washington Wizards - PF Nerlens Noel

I'm leaning increasingly towards putting McLemore as the #1 pick, but Washington will almost surely be interested in a frontcourt player. Grunfield also has a history of liking athletic freaks who need to work on their skill game as seen by the Vesely and McGee picks. Noel gets #1 spot for now at least until I start lotto generating the top 3 for my picks

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams

Going to keep calling all year that Cleveland will make another advanced metrics "weird" pick. This blog will be an excellent Cavs indicator http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=965 since he's a stats guy who ranked both Thompson and Waiters as the #2 guys in his draft. He seems to have MCW as his 2nd favorite prospect after Noel. The Cavs metrics seem to favor every stat but scoring and MCW putting up 12 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 3.8 stls for a PG per 40 minutes makes him a freak of nature in non scoring stats for a PG.

3. Charlotte Bobcats - SG Ben McLemore

The guy I'm favoring overall for the #1 pick right now and he fits Charlotte more than anyone else, due to how well his shooting and spacing would compliment MKG and Kemba. Perfect pick

4. New Orleans Hornets - SG/SF Shabazz Muhammad

Shabazz's scoring this year should make him a near lock to go top 5. He gives the Hornets a fairly formidable 1-2 punch in their eyes with Anthony Davis

5. Phoenix Suns - SG Archie Goodwin

I expect Goodwin to be a hot riser at the workout and combine time period. His athletic tools and ability to get in the paint is extremely dynamic. A team will believe they have a player with star upside in Goodwin and that's why he will go high

6. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart

Some team is going to fall in love with Smart's size, skill, vision and leadership potential. I'll say it's Orlando and Rob Hennigan for now as Smart also fits their lineup

7. Detroit Pistons - PG Trey Burke

Obviously they're angling for Shabazz or McLemore, but if they can't get either they'll have to look elsewhere. Burke's play is making him a likely top 12 pick and they can fit him in their lineup by moving Knight to the SG in a Jason Terry role, also Knight isn't a caliber of player you draft around at this point anyways.

8. Sacramento Kings - C Alex Len

I don't expect Len to end up dropping this far, it's just how the order of the teams went that he did in this mock. Anyways I expect Sacramento to be planning on a future without Cousins, so drafting Len who would be considered the clear BPA at this point IMO, makes sense with their franchise

9. Dallas Mavericks - SF Otto Porter

Dallas is probably another team who'll use the draft statistical analyses they've spent millions on, to make this pick. Porter has a nice combination with 9 rebs, 2.4 stl, 1.5 blk, 3.5 asts for a SF and Marion is a good mentor for him

10. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) - PF/C Cody Zeller

Dark day for opposing GMs and fanbases. Perfect, almost unfair fit for their lineup.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - PF Anthony Bennett

Another player who's ultimately unlikely to fall this far, but Philly would love the idea of a dynamic talent like Bennett being available this far down, in all liklihood

12. Phoenix Suns (from Los Angeles Lakers) - SF Alex Poythress

They grab a 2nd Kentucky guy, giving them an excellent upgrade athletically on the wings

13. Minnesota Timberwolves - SG CJ McCollum

Nice fit for the Wolves, giving them a shooter/scorer in the backcourt beside Rubio

14. Utah Jazz - C Rudy Gobert

Yes the Jazz have to stop drafting bigs at some point, but I Gobert would clearly have great value here and I think they'd be happy taking a player and using him as a trade asset, possibly stashing Gobert for a year

chad42 · Post #50 » by **chad42** » Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:09 pm

Always fun to see your updated list.

Isaiah Austin vs Nerlens Noel.
Isaiah Austin seems like the superior prospect to me. He possesses greater fluidity, a feel for the game that Noel may never have, offensive skills and versatility that Noel will never have. Imagine Austin at 24, 7'1 235lbs, running the floor, pick n pops, facilitating from the high post, facing up putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim, bothering shots on the defensive side of the ball, his post game is developing, every interview and story points to him loving the game. If you watch Baylor this year you'll see him already stepping up as a leader. Austin's upside as a complete basketball player and a match up nightmare is so much greater than Noel's.

Dr Positivity · Post #51 » by **Dr Positivity** » Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:29 pm

Noel vs Austin is a good test case for my belief that physical tools is 1/3 of talent, while skills and IQ/feel is the other 2/3. Noel's strength (physical tools) only make up the 1/3 in that scenario while his weakness (skill and feel) is the 2/3. Austin is the inverse, his weakness (physically imposing himself) is the 1/3 and his strength (natural skill and feel) is the 2/3. Last year I thought Nicholson and Robinson's draft rankings should've been switched for the same reason (Robinson had elite athleticism but weak skill and feel, Nicholson had weak athleticism but elite skill and feel)

-Kees- · Post #52 » by **-Kees-** » Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:52 pm

A few comments on the latest mock...

Would CLE take another combo guard with their pick? Not like MCW is a bad talent or anything, but they don't really have anyone on the wing, you think they'd pass up on a more traditional wing like Bazz or Ben McLamore, move Waiters to the 6th man role?

Also the Bobcats. I really think they'll need a big, especially since I'm guessing they'll want a Wiggins type next draft to put next to MKG. I don't see them passing up a Zeller, Bennet or Len for another wing.

And I'm also questioning the Jazz taking another big when they have too many already. Ideally one of Burke, Smart or MCW will drop to them, but even if they don't, I still see a wing pick for them.

Otherwise it looks pretty good. I've been following your 33 pt method and I like how it's produced, keep it up.

Post #53 » by **Jake0890** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:18 am

You really think Zeller drops below Len? I just don't see that happening.

Jazzfan12 · Post #54 » by **Jazzfan12** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:39 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Noel vs Austin is a good test case for my belief that physical tools is 1/3 of talent, while skills and IQ/feel is the other 2/3. Noel's strength (physical tools) only make up the 1/3 in that scenario while his weakness (skill and feel) is the 2/3. Austin is the inverse, his weakness (physically imposing himself) is the 1/3 and his strength (natural skill and feel) is the 2/3. Last year I thought Nicholson and Robinson's draft rankings should've been switched for the same reason (Robinson had elite athleticism but weak skill and feel, Nicholson had weak athleticism but elite skill and feel)

Ehh, Greg Monroe has struggled this year while Larry Sanders is doing great. Evan Turner isn't good while Paul George is an all-star. Intelligence might matter more than athleticism, but athleticism matters a lot more than skill (especially for big men)

Dr Positivity · Post #55 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue Jan 15, 2013 4:49 am

Prospect power rankings/generic mock draft (not taking team needs into account, just how I think they'd be taken, in a generic order)

1. SG Ben McLemore
2. PF Nerlens Noel
3. SG Shabazz Muhammad
4. C Alex Len
5. SG Archie Goodwin
6. PF Anthony Bennett
7. C Cody Zeller
8. PG Marcus Smart
9. C Rudy Gobert
10. SF/PF Alex Poythress
11. PG Trey Burke
12. PG Michael Carter-Williams
13. C Jeff Withey
14. PF Isaiah Austin

Gilles · Post #56 » by **Gilles** » Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:17 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Noel vs Austin is a good test case for my belief that physical tools is 1/3 of talent, while skills and IQ/feel is the other 2/3. Noel's strength (physical tools) only make up the 1/3 in that scenario while his weakness (skill and feel) is the 2/3. Austin is the inverse, his weakness (physically imposing himself) is the 1/3 and his strength (natural skill and feel) is the 2/3. Last year I thought Nicholson and Robinson's draft rankings should've been switched for the same reason (Robinson had elite athleticism but weak skill and feel, Nicholson had weak athleticism but elite skill and feel)

Robinson became Kansas' best scorer last season after being a roleplayer for two previous seasons. Then came the draft where he spoke about his desire to be #1 pick. After that Kings coaching staff used him as #1 ballhandler in Summer League because they didn't bother to invite anybody who can create for others to their roster. That's called enabling. There were a couple of games where he focused only on defense and hustle - he looked great. Usually he tries to do too much and is failing miserably. He improved his skills a great deal during his 3 years in Kansas, but it turned out what was passable in college just isn't enough for NBA.

Dr Positivity · Post #57 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Jan 19, 2013 11:05 pm

01/19/13

Going to start mixing up the top 3 now. And full mock

1. Charlotte Bobcats - SG Ben McLemore
2. Phoenix Suns - PF Nerlens Noel
3. Washington Wizards - C Alex Len
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams
5. New Orleans Hornets - SG/SF Shabazz Muhammad
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) - C Willie Cauley-Stein
7. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart
8. Detroit Pistons - SG Archie Goodwin
9. Sacramento Kings - PG Trey Burke
10. Dallas Mavericks - PF Anthony Bennett
11. Philadelphia 76ers - C Cody Zeller
12. Phoenix Suns (from LA Lakers) - SG Jamaal Franklin
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - SG C.J. McCollum
14. Houston Rockets - SF Otto Porter
15. Charlotte Bobcats (from Portland) - C Rudy Gobert
16. Boston Celtics - PF/C Isaiah Austin
17. Utah Jazz - SF Dario Saric
18. Milwaukee Bucks - PG/SG Russ Smith
19. Atlanta Hawks - SF/PF C.J. Leslie
20. Denver Nuggets - SF/PF Alex Poythress
21. Brooklyn Nets - PF Mason Plumlee
22. Utah Jazz (from Golden State) - PF James Michael McAdoo
23. Chicago Bulls - C Jeff Withey
24. Indiana Pacers - SF Le'Bryan Nash
25. Phoenix Suns (from Memphis via Minnesota) - SF Glenn Robinson III
26. New York Knicks - SF Sergey Karasev
27. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami) - SF Kyle Anderson
28. San Antonio Spurs - PF/C Gorgui Dieng
29. Los Angeles Clippers - PG Lorenzo Brown
30. Oklahoma State Thunder - SF/PF Doug McDermott

[RCG] · Post #58 » by **[RCG]** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 6:16 am

I can't see MCW going to Cavs at #4 with Irving/Waiters. I know why you put him there and its probably not where you'd take him but IMO it'd be the biggest mistake of the draft. Jonny Flynn should be a warning to anyone looking at Syracuse PGs.

I think Porter will end up going a little higher and Goodwin a little lower if they keep playing how they are but that's just my opinion. Nice mock!

Gilles · Post #59 » by **Gilles** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 2:34 pm

If that's how draft plays out at #1-#8, Kings would need a lot of convincing not to take Porter or Poythress.

Dr Positivity · Post #60 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:35 pm

01/27/13

1. Detroit Pistons - SG Ben McLemore
2. Phoenix Suns - PF Nerlens Noel
3. Charlotte Bobcats - PF Anthony Bennett
4. Washington Wizards - PF Isaiah Austin
5. Cleveland Cavaliers - PG/SG Michael Carter-Williams
6. New Orleans Hornets - SG/SF Shabazz Muhammad
7. Orlando Magic - PG Marcus Smart
8. Sacramento Kings - PG Trey Burke
9. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto) - C Alex Len
10. Minnesota Timberwolves - SG C.J. McCollum
11. Philadelphia 76ers - C Cody Zeller
12. Dallas Mavericks - SG Archie Goodwin
13. Phoenix Suns (from LA Lakers) - SF Otto Porter
14. Charlotte Bobcats (from Portland) - C Rudy Gobert
15. Boston Celtics - SF Le'Bryan Nash
16. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston) - SG Jamaal Franklin
17. Utah Jazz - SF Kyle Anderson
18. Milwaukee Bucks - SF Sergey Karasev
19. Atlanta Hawks - C Willie Cauley-Stein
20. Brooklyn Nets - PF James Michael McAdoo
21. Indiana Pacers - PF C.J. Leslie
22. Denver Nuggets - C Jeff Withey
23. Utah Jazz (from Golden State) - PG Lorenzo Brown
24. Chicago Bulls - SF/PF Alex Poythress
25. New York Knicks - PF/C Gorgui Dieng
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis) - SF Glenn Robinson III
27. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami) - SF/PF Tony Mitchell (North Texas)
28. Los Angeles Clippers - PF Mason Plumlee
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - PF Doug McDermott
30. San Antonio Spurs - SG Nick Johnson