2023 Full Mock

[babyjax13]

Thoughts based on at least 1 full game for about half the prospects in the draft (most of the first round)

1) San Antonio: Victor Wembanyama [range: 1]
Offensively he is incredibly fluid as a ball handler and shooter for his size, and can sometimes finish rather creatively. He should be able to take centers off the dribble, but will be affected by the physicality of the league before he fills out. I expect him to be less efficient than someone like Giannis, but to still be an extremely good offensive option. Defensively, his length, mobility, and instincts for his size are absolutely unheard of. I expect him to be extremely impactful on this end from day one, even if he occasionally loses some matchups due to the physicality of the NBA. He is the best prospect since Luka, who in my mind, was the best prospect since LeBron. As long as injuries don't affect his career, he has a clear path to superstardom.

2) Charlotte: Scoot Henderson [range: 2-3]
Rare combination of athleticism, coordination, and ball handling. Has plus vision for a point guard, but perhaps not outlier vision (say ... maybe top 10 at the position?). Has a nice midrange jumper but settles for it way too much. Three-point shot has improved despite percentages being poor, and I believe in his form. I think an NBA team will change his shot profile a bit and he will be more efficient (e.g., Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton cutting out a lot of the midrange games).

3) Portland: Brandon Miller [range: 2-4]
Excellent catch and shoot player, moves well off ball. Ball handling can get him past the first defender sometimes, but not as reliably as you'd hope. However, the contracted college court makes him look worse than he is at getting to the rim. Makes really good reads with his passing, doesn't dominate the ball. Can shoot of the dribble if given space. Ball handling could use some improvements. Plays with pace really well, very rarely seems rushed. In that regard, he reminds me a bit of Joe Johnson, but that is the only way. He doesn't have the same ball-handling, passing, or individual creation with his ball-handling. Defensively gives effort, has some nice moments where he gets weakside blocks or uses his length to be disruptive, but can also get caught on screens or put out of position by stronger defenders. I don't think he will be particularly good or bad on that end.

4) Houston: Amen Thompson [range: 3-7]
Extremely powerful finishing around the rim through contact, big strides, explosive first step. Give him any space and he can explode to the rim. Unfortunately, he can't punish teams for sagging off of him, his jumper is fundamentally broken. His form is rigid and jerky, and for a player with tremendous touch and hands around the rim, and the ability to manipulate the ball with nice passes, he looks like he has hands of stone every time he tries to shoot. Freethrow shooting is no better. Shooting will be the swing skill that results in him either being a star, or just a really interesting player that could be much more effective if he could develop that one skill. Defensively gambles some, but has the height, reach, explosiveness, and anticipation to make some really spectacular plays. I expect him to be good on that end, and if his jumper doesn't develop he will have to lean into that identity. He could end up, without a reliable jumper, as something like an early career Andre Iguodala.

5) Detroit: Jarace Walker [range: 4-13]
Really appealing for his ability to contain wings and guards on the dribble, but also be physical enough to disrupt bigs. Reminiscent of Robert Covington in terms of the defensive role you hope he can play, though I doubt he has the same level of shotblocking as Covington at the next level (think, something between Covington and Tucker...has the lateral quickness and strength combo of Tucker, with more length a la Covington, and more rim protection). Offensively shows nice vision, and has a reasonably developed handle for someone of his size. This adds some versatility, and helps make up for what he lacks as a shooter right now. Defensively he does sometimes get caught ball-watching, but he's obviously better than average. I've seen several mocks with him top 5, and I'm not sure I see that. But if you need a really nice linking piece who can do a lot to anchor a defense, I think Jarace is exactly that.

6) Orlando: Cam Whitmore [range: 4-13]
Athletic profile is pretty insane. Really explosive first step, really strong. Faster in a line than laterally, but still moves well any direction he needs to go. Active defender, seems to be smart about the risks he takes. Does not look to have outlier vision as a playmaker, but does not strike me as selfish. Jumper could use some work, it reminds me a bit of Anthony Edwards' form in Georgia. I'm not sure he ever becomes a standout shooter, but he is a good FT shooter and shouldn't be left open in college. I think the likely scenario is that he becomes a player that occupies a similar role to OG Anunoby or Andrew Wiggins, as a tertiary scorer who defends pretty well. That's a really valuable archetype. There is some outlier potential, too, especially if either his court vision or shooting improves. Seems to be a solid ballhandler for his size, too.prcoesses the game slowly at times, and this is my biggest worry with him.

7) Indiana: Taylor Hendricks [range: 5-11]
In many ways the opposite of GG Jackson. Fundamentally sound and aware on defense, goes vertical when he should go vertical, has a good understanding of which rotations he is supposed to make. Offensively he cuts pretty well, and is active trying to get offensive boards. Generates pressure on the rim with his strength and verticality, but lacks a bit of touch, and not the best ball handler. Reminds me a bit of Jerami Grant in Denver, but Hendricks is a better shooter at this point and physically is strong enough to bully smaller players and push some guys off their spots. That said, I think the shooting is a bit deceptive, his shot is rigid, and I'm not sure his first year it extends well to the NBA line. I do think he develops in this regard so it is not a long-term concern. I think Jackson has higher upside but I trust Hendricks to reach his way more.

8) Washington: Anthony Black [range: 4-10]
Long. Not explosive but moves well laterally for his size, well enough to stick with smaller courts on the college court. Gets caught on screens because of his size, and it remains to be seen if he can contain NBA-caliber point guards on the bigger court. Very good court vision, probably not upper one percent in the NBA, but close. Makes very nice reads, deliveries are extremely accurate, and he knows how to play angles to get the ball where it needs to be. Hits open shots but takes few that are contested, unlikely to become more than a complimentary scorer, but will probably be efficient. Really good activity off-ball, can get some offensive rebounds and cut for some baskets. I imagine he plays a role in the NBA like Marcus Smart or Lonzo Ball, but he'll make an impact in that role in his own way

9) Utah: Kobe Bufkin [range: 8-18]

10) Dallas: Bilal Coulibaly [range: 6-16]

11) Orlando (Chicago): Ausur Thompson [range: 6-14]
Less explosive than his brother, but has a shooting form that I think can come around. Still evaluating, but at the moment, could see him being the first twin off the board for teams scared by Amen's jumper..

12) Oklahoma City: Grady Dick [range: 11-19]
Moves really well off-ball on cuts to the basket, and screens for open shots. Hits shots while in motion, has a lightening fast release. Defensively his height can cause some issues, but looks to be a liability on that end. Lacks plus lateral quickness, and lacks strength. Does operate well within a scheme, and is more disruptive on ball than off.

13) Toronto: Cason Wallace [range: 8-18]
Wallace is, in a way, boring. He isn't a fancy passer, but the ball goes to the right place. He isn't the best athlete in the world, but he is *just* athletic and big enough to be disruptive. He isn't the best shooter, but he is a good one. The one standout thing he does, is he can really operate well with no space and the ball in his hands. I don't know that he has star upside, but he is very reminiscent of the caliber of player Andre Miller was --- just really, really solid in a lot of ways that matter.

14) New Orleans: Jalen Hood-Schofino [range: 10-19]
Inconsistent passing vision. Does a wonderful job finding people when he is driving to the lane, throws some beautiful bounce passes in traffic, especially, and some good lobs (very good in PnR). Can miss people open on the perimeter, but when he sees them throws very accurate passes. Handle is unspectacular but not bad. Very good midrange jumper, I don't see issues with him becoming a reliable three-point shooter in the long term while also generating pressure in the midrange and at the rim. Goes under a lot of screens, but this is because of Indiana's scheme, think he has the lateral mobility to navigate them defensively and stick with most guards. I think he will be a solid NBA player for a long time.

15) Atlanta: Leonard Miller [range: 10-19]
High-effort player with disruptive length and lateral quickness. Sometimes bobbles passes (low ones, which might affect his PnR effectiveness a bit) but other times looks very fluid. Improving jumper, seems to know where to be on the court with cuts, screens, offensive rebounds, etc. I think he is going to be a high-IQ player which is good with his very good physical tools. Does lack vertical explosiveness, which is about his only physical shortcoming. Has some interesting ball handling and passing, think more development needs to happen with the handle before it is a real NBA weapon.

16) Utah (Minnesota): Keyonte George [range: 9-20]
Active defensively but can get caught out of position. Really nice shooting form and can score at all three levels. His lateral speed seems fine defensively, has a slightly high center of gravity, and doesn't get into a full defensive stance on all possessions. Loads up really well and is laterally explosive on offense, seems promising for his ability to contain guards defensively. I am confident his scoring will translate, but I'm not sure if that results in a star player, consider his range on offense to be something like a really good complimentary scorer (e.g. the role of Jordan Clarkson) to a high-level offensive option but not necessarily a transcendent star (e.g. Bradley Beal, Jamal Murray). I think the chances of him exceeding this are pretty low, but if he did, he'd look something like Devin Booker. Consensus seems to be that he is slipping, so I have moved him down, but I think he should be higher than the consensus.

17) LA Lakers: Derreck Lively

18) Miami: Nick Smith [range: 17-30]

19) Golden State: Dariq Whitehead [range: 14-30]
Deadly shooter who might make a good high-upside swing for a team. As long as he recovers the worst case is that you get a 6-6 guy with an automatic stroke when open who can also hit shots when challenged, etc. If his athletecism starts to come back he could return much better value than where he is drafted, and for that reason, I don't think he should fall too far outside of the lottery (think no later than 23rd or so).

20) Houston (LA Clippers): Jett Howard [range: 18-35]
Shoots on the move extremely well. Will have value as a player who can come off screens, or make hard cuts and get a shot off with minimal space. Will have one of the fastest releases in the NBA on day one. Very active off ball, makes good reads to get himself open. Not a great ball handler or distributor, but this is mitigated by how quickly he makes decisions. As a passer makes simple, but generally correct reads. Sometimes Michigan has him act as a secondary playmaker, but I don't think this will be his role in the NBA. Instead, think of guys on offense like Luke Kennard and Klay Thompson, whose job is to either get free and take a shot, or move the ball as fast as possible if they aren't open. Defensively doesn't seem to lack for speed, but is very slight of frame and will get bullied by stronger guards. Probably better as a 2 than a 3, likely will be a mismatch if he has to defend bigger and stronger players.

21) Brooklyn (PHX): Maxwell Lewis
Lacks and advance handle but can make some straight-line drives. At the college level is asked to be the engine of the offense, often takes stepback threes, etc. That just won't be his role in the NBA, and I don't think it was his ideal role in college but it did force some development. When set has a nice stroke, it looks a lot rougher when he has to take a dribble or move. Decent but not elite athlete, has good length. Not a creative passer, just a big wing who can shoot, but those are really valuable and teams often overthink this.

22) Brooklyn: James Nnaji
23) Portland (NYK): Olivier-Maxence Prosper
24) Sacramento: Kris Murray
25) Memphis: Noah Clowney

26) Indiana (Cleveland): GG Jackson [range: 14-35]
Totally disinterested in playing within a team framework at South Carolina. Terrible body language, sits in the corner with his hands on his knees unless the ball is in his hands. Black hole, ball movement for South Carolina dies when he is on the court. With his ability to handle the ball for his size his advantage should be as a connective piece that can move the ball, and create pressure on the rim when defenses are bent. Jumper looks like it will be okay at the NBA level, which for his size and fluidity at his size should make him a valuable piece if he can play within a team concept. South Carolina might be bad, but GG makes them worse, and that should be worrisome to people. Can't tell if he is disinterested defensively, or just has trouble getting over screens, because he gets taken advantage of if on a wing who can come off a screen. Demonstrated some vision when I watched him play in high school, so perhaps that will be more apparent in the NBA. I think that, and much better shot selection, has to be the hope in the NBA if you are drafting him in the top 20. Effort level, basketball IQ, attitude, propensity to isolate, all of these things are frankly embarrassing and need to improve if he is going to make it in the league. It has been a long time since I have seen someone with such an alarming attitude on the court.

27) Charlotte (Denver): Jordan Hawkins [range: 13-30]
Chasing him around screens is a nightmare. Can get his shot off with minimal room, the best shooter in college basketball. Defensively can give good effort and fight over screens, but lacks elite physical tools to be better than average on that end. Fantastic cutter off ball, makes quick decisions with the ball. If he puts it on the floor expect him to decide to shoot or pass very quickly, but doesn't have an advanced handle to break down a defense. Still fills a very valuable niche.

28) Utah (PHI): Ben Sheppard
29) Indiana (BOS): Sidy Cissoko

30) LAC (MIL): Rayan Rupert
A bit stiff and upright at times, while at others looking fluid and coordinated. In that sense, he reminds me of Josh Green. Doesn't have an advance handle, but does operate well as the ball handler in PnRs. Has a really pretty shot when set, but the loadup is a bit slow. Has a shot that also looks nice off the dribble, but again, slow loadup. In-between game looks like it has potential with a variety of floaters and midrange jumpers of the dribble/in traffic. Really plays with nice pace and makes good decisions. Seems like the kind of guy who is ideal as a 4th or 5th best starter, with upside to be something a bit more.

2nd round
31) Detroit: Brice Sensabaugh [range: 15-35, barring medicals]
Excels at short midrange shots, and is deadly from three if left open. Makes really simple reads as a passer and can over-dribble, but I think fears of him never passing are probably overblown. Extremely concerned about how he impacts the game if he is not scoring, for what that looks like, see his game against Michigan.

32) Indiana (Houston): Colby Jones [range: 17-35]
Extremely active, physical defender who fights over screens and boxes out. Strong, but does not have elite physical speed. Makes up for this in the college game with fantastic court awareness and switches 1-4 at that level with ease. In the NBA his physical tools mean that he may not be as impactful defensively, but this should still be a strength for him. Hits open jumpers but needs a bit of time to get it off, does not look like he will be hitting stepbacks, etc. with regularity. Throws some really nice passes with either hand, and can handle the ball a bit, but does not have the kind of advanced handle to regularly break down defenses. On offense he is likely a guy who can attack a bent defense and move the ball to the correct spot when he does so.
33) San Antonio: Brandin Podziemski
34) Charlotte: Jamie Jacquez
35) Boston (Portland): Jordan Walsh
36) Orlando: Julian Phillips
37) OKC (WAS): Kobe Brown
38) Sacramento (IND): Tristan Vukcevic
39) Charlotte (UTA): Mouhamed Gueye
40) Denver (DAL): Ricky Council IV
Plus athlete that can break down the defense with his handle. Good midrange shooter, but question whether he will be more than average from three. Always attacking, not a creative passer but can make the right reads on dumpoffs and kickouts generated by his rim-pressure. Has a clear NBA role as an athletic 6-6 2/3 who can break down a defense. Activity off-ball could improve. Physical defender who can defend up a position, but his defensive impact probably looks a bit worse because of how outshined he is by Black and Walsh on that end.
41) Charlotte (OKC): Andre Jackson
42) Washington (CHI): Trayce Jackson-Davis
43) Portland (ATL): Seth Lundy
44) San Antonio (TOR): Isaiah Wong
45) Memphis (MIN): Marcus Sasser
46) Atlanta: Keyontae Johnson
47) LA Lakers: Amari Bailey
48) LA Clippers: Jalen Wilson
Obviously not super fast in a line or laterally, but extremely big with good length. Probably translates as a power forward. Defensively can get beaten by quicker players and does not generate a ton of blocks or steals, switches onto college centers now and then and is not tragic. Very good rebounder. Fantastic shotmaker, any spot on the court he can make it if you give him even a sliver of daylight. Can shoot over players, crafty at navigating the court and finding ways to get free. Very efficient midrange, obviously a devalued skillset but might be good enough that he gets medium volume on those attempts. Ball doesn't stick to him, but not a creative passer.
49) Cleveland (GSW): Mojave King
50) OKC (MIA): Jaylen Clark
51) Brooklyn: Terquavion Smith
52) Phoenix: Julian Strawther
53) Minnesota (NYK): Jacob Toppin
54) Sacramento: Taevion Kinsey
55) Indiana (CLE): Emoni Bates
56) Memphis: Jordan Miller
57) Washington (BOS): Chris Livingston
58) Milwaukee: Oscar Tsheibwe


UDFA: Caleb McConnell, Drew Timme, Mike Miles, Kendric Davis, Jalen Slawson, Kevin McCullar


2024: Tyler Smith, Ugonna Kingsley-Onyenso, Kamari Lands, Matthew Cleveland, Chance Westry, JJ Starling, Leon Bond, Julian Phillips, MJ Rice, Terrence Arceneaux, Tyrese Proctor, Chris Livingston, Caleb Love, Daimion Collins, Hunter Dickenson, Mark Mitchell, Antonio Reeves, Arterio Morris, Harrison Ingram, Armando Bacot, Norchard Omier, Johni Broome, Nate Bittle, Ernest Udeh, Baba Miller, Kel'el Ware, Kyle Filipowski, Adem Bona, Reece Beekman, Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes, Coleman Hawkins, Terrence Shannon, Trey Alexander, Dillon Mitchell, Arthur Kaluma, Bobi Klintman, Grant Nelson, Nikola Durisic

[babyjax13]

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes) bold = solidly in the tier they are in, red = very shaky in this tier

Tier 1 (the future MVP candidate):
Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2 (the franchise centerpiece):
Scoot Henderson

Tier 3 (the robin/centerpiece of a low-tier playoff team, but not a contender):
Brandon Miller
Amen Thompson

Tier 4 (all-star, third-best player on a contender)
Anthony Black
Cam Whitmore
Ausur Thompson
Keyonte George

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a really good starter)
Jarace Walker
Cason Wallace
Taylor Hendricks
Kobe Bufkin
Dariq Whitehead
Bilal Coulibaly

Tier 6 (solid starter)
Grady Dick
Leonard Miller
Ben Sheppard
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Jordan Hawkins
Derrick Lively
Nick Smith
GG Jackson

Tier 7 (Low-end starter/high-end bench player)
Jett Howard
Colby Jones
Kobe Brown
Rayan Rupert
Ricky Council
Sidy Cissoko
Noah Clowney
Brice Sensabaugh
James Nnaji

Tier 8 (early sub, 7th-9th man)
Kris Murray
Jordan Walsh
Branden Podziemski
Seth Lundy
Isaiah Wong
Jalen Wilson
Andre Jackson
Julian Phillips

Tier 9 (rotation player)
Jamie Jasquez
Kevin McCullar
Marcus Sasser
Jaylen Clark
Keyontae Johnson
Nikola Durisic
Julian Strawther
Taevion Kinsey
Trayce Jackson-Davis

Tier 10 (end-of-rotation)
Tristan Vukcevic
Drew Timme
Amari Bailey
Mojave King
Emoni Bates

Tier 11 (summer league MVP)
Oscar Tsiebwe
Mike Miles

Tier 12 (summer league rotation player)
Dillon Mitchell
Baylor Scheierman
Caleb McConnell
Adem Sanogo

Tier 13 (summer league flier)
Markquis Nowell
Azuolas Tubelis

[clyde21]

GG Jackson reclassed?

[babyjax13]

GG Jackson reclassed?

Rumors yesterday were that he was going to, but today he went on instagram live and said it was just rumors. More fun to have him, though, and I think there is a non-zero chance he does.

[clyde21]

GG Jackson reclassed?

Rumors yesterday were that he was going to, but today he went on instagram live and said it was just rumors. More fun to have him, though, and I think there is a non-zero chance he does.

why I like to include Buzelis

like the Anthony Black ranking, think he's a sleeper for the top5 if his ball skills and passing juice are real. he's kinda like a poor man's Cade.

[babyjax13]

GG Jackson reclassed?

Rumors yesterday were that he was going to, but today he went on instagram live and said it was just rumors. More fun to have him, though, and I think there is a non-zero chance he does.

why I like to include Buzelis

like the Anthony Black ranking, think he's a sleeper for the top5 if his ball skills and passing juice are real. he's kinda like a poor man's Cade.

That's the vibe I got. Obviously it's super early and I only have some confidence in the top 2, but I really like what I saw out of the Arkansas backcourt. That team looks special. And Cade was who I immediately thought of.

[babyjax13]

GG Jackson reclassed?

Rumors yesterday were that he was going to, but today he went on instagram live and said it was just rumors. More fun to have him, though, and I think there is a non-zero chance he does.

why I like to include Buzelis

like the Anthony Black ranking, think he's a sleeper for the top5 if his ball skills and passing juice are real. he's kinda like a poor man's Cade.

That's the vibe I got. Obviously it's super early and I only have some confidence in the top 2, but I really like what I saw out of the Arkansas backcourt. That team looks special. And Cade was who I immediately thought of.

[clyde21]

Arkansas looks absolutely bonkers this year, Smith/Black back court and they also got Walsh, and their transfer class is insane, Trevon Brazile and Ricky Council

Brazile possibly an NBA prospect as well

[babyjax13]

GG Jackson reclassed?

Update: yes!

[babyjax13]

I've started getting cute with it by reading way too much into the draft workout list.