Some small posts about my top 10 prospects this year. These rankings factor in my own thoughts on team building for the current NBA
HOF player Tier 1 Unreal prospect1.
Victor Wembanyama Wemby is an insane prospect, really special. Probably the best defensive prospect I have ever seen, easily rivals Kentucky AD, then throw in ridiculous movement skills and a high skill level already at a young with a 7’4 frame and you have a potential HOF player. Hard to overstate just how crazy of a prospect he is. He may be completely game changing. I suspect an Allstar in his rookie year.
Tier 2- N/ATier 3- potential all star The floor general2.
Scoot Henderson Although Scoot was a bit underwhelming this season, he still seems like a good bet to be a high level guard. He has flaws, mainly in his short stature, some defensive issues, and a still progressing jump shot. But he is a very advanced PNR handler for his age and a great athlete, though not as elite as his reputation seems to be. Seems like a safe pick to return a high level starter. There are some larger questions about how valuable his archetype is, but I think that discussion is getting a little overboard.
The ‘high floor low ceiling’ fallacy guys 3.
Jarace Walker Jarace is the guy I am highest on in comparison to the consensus rankings. He is someone that has moved up the more I watch his film. He blends together a unique combination of size/skill/co-ordination. He played a major role on an outstanding college team that usually doesn’t play freshman. This is meaningful. I think there is a little bit of a misconception regarding his offensive potential, and ultimately why I have more belief in his upside than others seem to.
There is a tendency to see guys like Walker and Hendricks as ‘high floor/low ceiling’ prospects. But these type of freshman are overlooked every year, in favour of ‘high upside’ swings, which generally means someone who is currently worse at basketball but has more ‘room’ to improve + is athletic. I think at the moment you can't get enough 6'6+ 2 way players on your team, the fact these two are already good basketball players at 19 years old shouldn't be held against them.
Firstly, regarding his offence. He seems to be categorised as a big/small ball 5 by most, but I think he will end up more as a slashing wing. You watch a player in college to know what they look like in a system but watch them in high school and you can see what else they can really do. This is even more true playing at a heavily upperclassmen contender like Houston was this season. So, jump to Jarace’s high school years.
He has a great high school pedigree, 4 seasons at IMG playing high level comp. The interesting thing about Jarace in high school is that he played almost exclusively on the perimeter, and played as a guard for his freshman and sophomore seasons. As a freshman he stepped up big in the 2019 national final against La Lumiere. In 2020, he had big moments against the stacked Montverde squad that featured Cade/Moody/Barnes/Sharpe/Houston/Nembhard.
These high school years helped sharpen his handle, footwork and skill on the perimeter. Over his final year in AAU and senior year in HS, Walker had s 48.6% eFG% on 74 OTD jump shots in the half court. He was elite as a creating wing in HS.
Coming back to his time at Houston, although he had a fairly defined role at Houston in Sampson’s system, there were plenty of flashes that give some evidence to the idea that there is a lot of untapped offensive potential here. His own team mates consider him a guard.
If we just look at his general overall offensive production, he profiles more as a wing. Over 100 drives in the half court, over 50 non-rim 2pt makes, over 30 3pt makes. He took over 100 combined dribble jumpers+floaters.
Now, if Jarace can play as more of a perimeter based/slashing wing he becomes a lot more interesting offensively. This would add another dimension of versatility to his offensive game. Right off the bat, he very likely won’t have a long leash offensively. But he should be able to play as a roll man and as a DHO operator. But I think there is chance he could end up being utilised has a mid-post or even 3pt line initiator ala Siakam.
This will depend on the jump shot continuing to improve, however the flashes are absolutely there, and the propensity to take so many OTD jumpers and floaters in the NCAA is actually a positive indicator of his touch and skill for me in this regard. The elephant in the room is how poor his percentages were as a half court driver, though I think in a more spaced NBA court and continued improvement of the jumpsuit he will grow here. His overall shot profile is reminiscent of SDSU Kawhi in terms of being able to create and take OTD jumpers and floaters but not necessarily being able to make them consistently. If he is able to make this leap, his outstanding passing will become even more useful.
I think his handle and footwork for a guy his size and frame is rare
In regards to his reliance on floaters and contact aversion, this does seem like an easy fix developmentally, primarily because his physicality should actually be a strength. He has an elite frame and I think he just doesn’t really know how to maximise his body/tools yet. It’s not as if he has to rely on floaters and non rim 2’s because he is frail/skinny. This just adds another level for his offensive game to grow.
Now, it should be mentioned that a major draw for him as a prospect is that he does have a very unique profile as a 2 way prospect. Since 2008 there is only one other high major freshman to combine 12% AST rate with 5% BLK rate and a 2% STL rate with 25+ dunks
Defensively Jarace is pretty special, he has outstanding defensive awareness and instincts. He seems to make very few mistakes and is adept at covering up others. He’s a great processor on this side of the ball. His hips are pretty stiff and he can struggle switching on to guards and quick wings (in comparison to someone like Hendricks), that being said he has great recovery tools that he utilised well at Houston even in situations where he was beaten off the dribble. I think he’s best suited as a roaming 4 on defence, who causes mass chaos off ball, but can still provide great 1 on 1 D.
He was in the 97th percentile on defending dribble jumpers, holding his opponent to 5/31 FG, and in the 92nd percentile guarding all field goals overall. Additionally he was in the 83rd percentile as an isolation defender allowing 4/20 fg, and 70th percentile guarding both PNR roll man and PNR handler.
Lastly just want to mention his play against strong competition.
His numbers in the 12 games (1/3 of his season) against top 50 teams were super elite.
11.2 BPM, 15% AST rate, 8.4% BLK rate, 2.7% STL rate, 78% FT, 39% 3pt. In the last 15 seasons there has only been 7 freshman with an 11+ BPM against top 50 teams :
DeAndre Ayton, Anthony Davis , Karl-Anthony Towns, Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Jalen Suggs and Marcus Smart.
All of them are top 5 picks.
Ultimately in a draft that is short on top end talent, I think Jarace presents as a potential 2 way star, with a very high floor and that pushes him into the top 3 for me.
4.
Taylor Hendricks Hendricks seems like a very solid bet to be a good rotation piece, with upside for more. Like Walker, his defense should get him on the court early on, and his size+perimeter shooting is a very solid base for a young prospect. He fits a nice modern archetype as a switchable big who can provide secondary rim protection on D, while providing great perimeter shooting. On top of this, his athleticism is good enough that he can play in the dunkers spot or as a roll man.
His offensive profile is strong, 98th percentile as a roll man, 73rd percentile as a spot up shooter, and great in transition in the 95th percentile. 58& eFG as on all catch and shoot attempts is great for a 6’10 guy. The obvious concern is the rim finishing where he was at 57% overall and just 44.7% on layups (15th percentile). I think part of this comes from a lack of touch, but he has some really bad misses for a guy his size. The shooting numbers look great, but there are also some really bad misses which isn't always a great sign for 'shooting' prospects.
His ball handling is not where it needs to be, and he just generally looks uncomfortable and awkward operating from the perimeter in most situations. That being said if he can develop at least a functional handle, he can flourish as a much more versatile shooter.
He joins a small group of freshman (including Jarace) which fit this archetype
Defensively he’s a very strong rim protector, and a very strong switchable big. I don’t think his defensive awareness/iq is quite on the level of Jarace, but he absolutely should be able to be a plus defender at the NBA level.
Overall these its hard to go wrong with these two prospects, and which way a team leans may rely more on their current roster construction.
The Wings 5.
Brandon Miller A bit lower on Miller than the consensus, but there is a lot to like here. In terms of an analytical projection from his profile, he has probably one of, if not the strongest stat profiles of any of the NCAA group. He is in pretty rare company as far as freshman wings.
Only two other high major freshman 6’8 or taller shot >83% FT and >10% AST rate, Cade Cunningham and Jayson Tatum (and Cade isn’t really 6’8). So the combination of elite shooting with a decent set of secondary skills in terms of passing and size is very nice.
On the other hand, he has ghastly finishing numbers, was simply terrible around the rim for someone his size. He struggles to create separation, he has a low release point on his jumper, he defends at an average to decent level and he’s a sophomore aged freshman. On top of this, his numbers against top 50 schools plummeted.
For the season he had an 11 BPM, 58%TS, 1.5 STL rate and 48% 2pt, 38% 3pt
Against top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM, 50% TS, 1.1 STL rate and 38% 2pt, 31% 3pt
These games against top 50 teams account for half of his season. So there may be a bit of a question here as to whether he’s just an old freshman beating up on bad teams, or was it a string of bad luck games that happen to occur against strong defences.
Guys that are 6’8, great shooters that can pass and hold their own on defense should have a pretty high floor though, so I think even a low level outcome should be a starting level player.
6.
Brice SensabaughBrice is an incredibly good scorer, elite shooter and tough shot maker. His numbers are really off the chart this year.
1st in high major NCAA for PPP on catch and shoot jumpers (minimum 120 attempts)
25th in all NCAA for PPP on catch and shoot jumpers (min 100 attempts)
15th in high major NCAA for PPP on dribble jumpers (min 100 attempts)
23rd in PPP on all jump shots (minimum 200 attempts)
Just a ridiculous offensive output this season. A OBPM of 7.4 as a freshman is elite.
Since 2008 there has only been 12 freshman enter the draft with an OBPM of 7.4 or higher
Zion - pick 1
AD - pick 1
Ayton - pick 1
Fultz - pick 1
Beasley - pick 2
Bagley - pick 2
Russell - pick 2
Lonzo - pick 2
Kevin Love - pick 5
Trae Young - pick 5
Jamal Murray - pick 7
Lauri Markkanen - pick 7
Average draft pick = 3
This year two more have a chance to be added to this group, Brandon Miller and… Brice Sensabaugh.
Brandon Miller is expected to go picks 2-3, and Brice is currently projected to go 15-25.
He joined James Harden as the only <6’6 high major player since 2008 to have a season with 30 USG + 55% EFG
You look at HM freshman guards/wings that were able to score at this efficiency and its a tiny but extremely strong list.
50/40/80 freshman, only 2 guys make the list
Contextually, there are issues. Sensabaugh played a lot off the bench this season, which can skew numbers. Ultimately though it's just an indication that he was able to handle a huge offensive load, and do so very efficiently.
Now, obviously there are some flaws with Brice and legitimate reasons for concern that others who are less high on him point at. He is currently a bad defender, he’s not a great athlete and he has a football build more than a basketball build. There are additional questions about how valuable he is in a scaled down role, and also where exactly do you play him, is he a guard is a forward etc. Then you have to wonder why his coach only played a scorer of this calibre so few minutes.
I personally think he ends up as a forward, and more than likely ends up guarding wings and even bigger wings where he can use his physicality. It’s worth noting that he had the highest defensive rebounding percentage of any high major freshman 6’6 or below this season, so I think it’s within the realm of possibilities that he could slide up a bit on defence.
Athletically there may be issues, in terms of getting separation as a shot creator. I think this is where is strength and footwork is going to be vital, because he’s never going to be blowing past dudes off the dribble really.
As far as scalability I think it's possible he flourishes an off ball guard, at OSU he was given the ball a lot and asked to self create or just simply catch and shoot. However he was in the 98th percentile of all NCAA players in PPP off screens, and had an 86% TS off 19 attempts of screens. It might age poorly but I think there are paths for Brice to be a legitimate high level scorer at the NBA level. His skill level, touch and footwork are just so outstanding already.
7.
Cam WhitmoreI’ll say right off the bat, I’m not a huge Whitmore fan. When I watch his tape, it sometimes seems like he has no processing skills at all or that he has never been coached properly before. Too often he just looks like a bull in a china shop, who, as soon as he catches the ball is looking for an opportunity to put his head down, and just drop his shoulder and drive to the rim, with no thought of a back up plan. On top of this he has no in between game, so when he was driving, you knew he was going to take it all the way to the bucket, come hell or high water. It seemed like passing was not part of the equation. Far too often this ended with him stuck stranded, playing off 2 feet with nowhere to go except to throw something up, or try to finish through defenders.
To Cam’s credit, his way worked fairly well at the NCAA level, he shot very efficiently for a 6’6 player, nearly 60% on 2’s is outstanding, and his isolation numbers were great.
My first concern is I just don’t know if this is going to work for him at the NBA level. His handle isn’t great outside of 2 dribbles, and I’m not sure its entirely feasible to play in him a heavy on ball role given just how inept he seems as a passer/playmaker for others.
My 2nd concern would be that I don’t really buy the jump shot. It’s very slow, so slow in fact that Synergy considers 71% of his jump shots are guarded. That ratio of contested/uncontested puts him in the 95th percentile. Of course, in the NBA the margins are even smaller and defenders are longer and more athletic, this is problematic for an average shooter with such a slow release. The percentage and volume were good, but he wasn’t a strong shooter prior to the NCAA and the FT % is pretty underwhelming for a guard.
The third concern would be the terrible AST rate, its just usually a really bad sign in prospects.
The list of non center lottery picks with single digit AST numbers. Keep in mind Whitmore’s 6.4% AST rate would actually be near the bottom of this list.
Defensively he’s very hit and miss. The steal rate is impressive, but the eye test is less so. He falls asleep off ball a lot and gets lost. However on ball, he should be able to hold his own based off his physical strength, quick hands and elite athleticism. I think he should be able to be a neutral defender at the NBA level considering his tools.
HOWEVER, all of this being said, I think there are some strong outcomes for him. Guys like this don't grow on trees.Athletic freaks who are physically strong with actual perimeter skill are a pretty safe bet for value. He’s very young which should be beneficial and he has similarities to Jaylen Brown as a very strong athlete with some nice flashes of skill and scoring. I think he may end up going something along the lines of Miles Bridges, as a play finisher with a fairly simple role, but a role where you can get the most out of his athletic tools and finishing ability. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him around 20ppg at some point.
Tier 4 - High level impactThe upside defensive guards 8.
Ant black Ant is one of my favourite prospects in the class, primarily because of how well he sees and reads the game. Very smart player. Combine his feel/iq on offense with strong defense + his size and you have a very strong guard prospect. His major strength outside of playmaking right now is his ability to get to the rim and get to the line.
There just aren’t a lot of freshman guards in the same class in this regard. Ant currently does basically everything at a high level, except for one thing, which is shooting. My only hesitation with Ant, is in fact his own hesitation. At times he seems hesitant to shoot or look for his own shot, and if he is going to play as high usage point guard, this can make things difficult.
In 21/36 games for the season, he played 30+ minutes while taking 10 or less shots. This is a really low mark for a top 10 pick guard. Its like freshman Halliburton level. Now, some of this can be explained by games where Ant had a lot of free throw attempts, but even just on the eye test, there are too many plays where he just isn’t looking like a threat to score at all.
Part of his hesitation to shoot likely comes from the fact that he’s not a very good shooter, which is understandable. The hope is that the jumper improves at least to an average level. In that case he becomes a jumbo creator who is great on D.
9.
Cason Wallace Cason seems like a really easy pick as a top ten type of guard. He should bring some level of shooting + elite D. He, like Ant Black, bring a bit of everything you want in a modern non-star guard.
This is essentially my ideal archetype for a non star guard in the current NBA. Teams are consistently spending huge paychecks on guards like Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro, but these types of 3+D guards just seem like far better value. Cason is so close to Jrue that comp is too easy to make, but its hard to see Wallace failing to find a role in the NBA.
Over 40% OTD jumpers this year, good catch and shoot numbers, 70th percentile as a PnR handler. Throw in the fact Kentucky guards seem to show a lot more in the NBA, yeah he’s an easy top 10 guy.
10.
Amen ThompsonHonestly don’t know where to put him. Probably the most ridiculous mover I can remember seeing on a basketball court, he does things on drives I just haven’t seen before. He really is in the elite of the elite in terms of functional athleticism. It’s like he can move in all dimensions without any friction. On top of this he has shown some solid playmaking skills and the ability to play point guard to a high standard in a bad comp. All of this in a 6’6 frame with a 7’0 wingspan.
However, pretty much anything else after that is entirely theoretical. He is a terrible jump shooter with a completely broken looking shot. I would think he’s several years away from a serviceable shot. He looks good on defence in spurts but a lot of that comes from being a freak athlete playing against younger less developed kids. He should be able to be a good defender at the NBA given his tools, but there is a lot that goes into being a truly elite defender in the NBA.
I’m not sure he ends up being a point guard in the NBA, and may end up more as a wing.
Personally, I wouldn’t want to be the team taking a chance on either of the Twins in the top 5, but I can see Amen having some outcomes where things come together for him and he is able to blend his size/athleticism/feel into an impact player
Tier 5- Rotation11. Grady Dick
12. Derrick Lively
13. Ausar Thompson
14. Leonard Miller
Other guys I like (no particular order)Brandin Podziemski, Colby Jones, Whitehead, Jacquez, Cissoko, Phillips, Strawther, TJD
