CptCrunch 2023 Big Board

[CptCrunch]

Link to 2022 Big Board: viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2200885

Link to 2021 Mini Board: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2089310&start=540#p92809709

5/18 - Post Lotto Draft

Tier 1 - Franchise Changing Talent
1. Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2 - Lower Tier Franchise Player
2. Brandon Miller

Tier 3 - All-Star Median Outcome
3. Scoot Henderson
4. Anthony Black

Tier 4 - Role Player Median Outcome
5. Taylor Hendricks
6. Grady Dick
7. Cason Wallace
8. Ausar Thompson
9. Cam Whitmore

Tier 5 - Role Player Good (80th Percentile) Outcome
10. Jett Howard
11. Jarace Walker
12. Keyonte George
13. Dereck Lively
14. Amen Thompson

[CptCrunch]

Reactionary end of May big board update based on median outcome. Does not take into account off court issues.

5/29 - Post Lotto Draft

Tier 1 - Franchise Changing Talent
1. Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2 - Lower tier franchise player
2. Brandon Miller

Tier 3 - All-star median outcome
3. Scoot Henderson

Tier 4 - Role player median outcome
4. Anthony Black
5. Taylor Hendricks
6. Jarace Walker
7. Grady Dick
8. Cam Whitmore
9. Cason Wallace
10. Ausar Thompson

Tier 5 - Bench player median outcome
11. Dereck Lively
12. Jett Howard
13. Keyonte George
14. Jordan Hawkins
15. Kobe Bufkin
16. Brice Sensabaugh
17. Dariq Whitehead
18. Jaime Jaquez

Tier 6 - Looking for some kind of role/career in the NBA
19. Amen Thompson
20. Bilal Coulibaly
21. Leonard Miller
22. Amari Bailey
23. Trayce Jackson-Davis

Tier 7 - Unordered, looking for player with upside, roles in the league
Brandin Podziemski
GG Jackson
Jullian Phillips
Kris Murray
Marcus Sassar
Noah Clowney
Rayan Rupert
Sidy Cissoko
Zach Edey

[clyde21]

i see J Hawk twice on there, 14 and 18

otherwise solid, higher on KG/Phillips than you, lower on B Miller/Howard

[The Sebastian Express]

Will you have a writeup of the players and why closer to the draft like you did for the 2022 big board you linked? That was actually a pretty enjoyable read.

[CptCrunch]

i see J Hawk twice on there, 14 and 18

otherwise solid, higher on KG/Phillips than you, lower on B Miller/Howard

Everyone got +1 rank after Hawkins

[CptCrunch]

Will you have a writeup of the players and why closer to the draft like you did for the 2022 big board you linked? That was actually a pretty enjoyable read.

I will try before the draft in June. I need to cheat by checking Kevin O'Conner's picks and making some counter picks.

[CptCrunch]

Written report for this year, written by yours truly, semi-cleaned up in textual structure with help of GPT4.

Tier 1 - Franchise Changing Talent

1. Victor Wembanyama – Wembanyama is an exceptional prospect of his generation, possessing a unique combination of size and skills that sets him apart. The absence of comparable players to Victor further highlights his exceptional attributes. It's important to note that the lack of prior examples does not determine a player's potential for success, as we have witnessed the rise of extraordinary talents such as Shaq, Zion, and LeBron who have all defied historic molds. Victor easily surpasses both analytical evaluations and the eye test. Defensively, his instincts are solid, and he excels as a weak-side shot blocker, showcasing elite mobility and lateral quickness for someone of his stature. Offensively, his shooting ability is steadily improving, and his ball-handling skills are on par with elite NBA power forwards or even larger players. However, it's worth acknowledging that injuries pose a potential threat to his career trajectory. Historical data on NBA players of similar size suggests a less positive outlook for an extended career; though this assessment may be influenced by an undetermined type of sampling bias. If the injuries experienced by previous big men in the NBA were indeed a result of physiological limitations of man, then Victor's ability to stay healthy is indeed in jeopardy. Don’t let fear of failure ruin a chance at greatness; there is no other option than Victor at #1.

Tier 2 - Lower tier franchise player

2. Brandon Miller – Miller's performance in the early part of the season was exceptional. However, he experienced a decline in production against higher-ranked teams later in the reason (see possible reason end of paragraph). While these fluctuations in statistical output can raise concerns, it is important to avoid labeling players as "chokers" or "clutch" based on a small sample size at the college level, as these traits are heavily influenced by mental makeup that we cannot reasonable determine without extended NBA playoff minutes. Miller's impressive 3-point shooting percentage of 38.4% and high free-throw percentage of 85.9% on significant attempts make him a great but unsparing prospect. I can envision a trajectory similar to that of Paul George in a reasonably good development path. It is worth noting that Miller was involved in a homicide case, in which he was found to be not chargeable under Alabama law (imo deeply flawed). This may result in a drop in his draft stock, but this is a big board. Furthermore, it is likely that a civil suit might be filed against him once he signs a rookie contract guaranteeing his millions in NBA salary.

3. Scoot Henderson - There seems to be a waning interest in Scoot Henderson, who burst onto the scene by joining the G-League at the age of 17 and delivering an impressive season. Unfortunately, during his second season, he only managed to maintain a similar, if not slightly improved, level of play compared to his debut. Scoot's playing style reminds me of De'Aaron Fox. Both are undersized (relative to what you would want in size), athletic guards with limited natural passing abilities, questionable shooting skills, and the potential for playmaking. If you don’t like Fox, some shade of Morant, Rose, Westbrook are somewhat reasonable outcomes for Scoot. From all available accounts, Scoot is a consummate professional well loved by his G-League coaches. I view Scoot as a very safe pick given the recent hit rate of guards at the top of the lottery has been excessively high. My only reservation is the impact (or the lack of) of smaller lead guards; it is easier for larger wing players to dominate in the NBA today than it is for a small guard to become the best player in the NBA. Otherwise, I would place Scoot above Miller; Scoot has more talent, but will probably experience less success than Miller in the median case.

4. Anthony Black - Black's standout attribute is his combination of size and playmaking ability. As my personal prospect of interest for the year, I may have become overly invested in the hype surrounding him. However, I am genuinely convinced of Black's potential when it comes to reading NBA defenses; he is arguably one of the most cerebral point guard prospects I have witnessed. His ability to quickly and efficiently make the right decisions on the court is undoubtedly his greatest strength. Regarding Black's physical attributes, standing at 6'5.75" without shoes, he ranks among the tallest point guards in the league. While his wingspan of 6'7.5" may be slightly underwhelming, I don't believe it significantly diminishes his prospects as a player. He possesses notable speed and impressive leaping ability as well. It may come as a surprise, but Black is arguably the most exceptional wing defender among the lottery prospects this year, with the potential to become a Defensive Player of the Year caliber player. Later in the season, Black was a menace on defense in SEC play with teams shying away from him on offense. (Think the Dwight Howard effect). However, Black's scoring ability remains a limitation; he hasn't demonstrated a natural scoring instinct and often prefers to pass up shots. Although his shooting technique is not flawless, it is not irreparable either. If Black were to possess an elite shooting ability, I would confidently rank him as the second-best prospect easily. One interesting thing that people miss about Black is that he is a free throw merchant with a 0.57 FTR as a freshman; this is quite absolutely insane as it is higher than Zion’s 0.467. I see Black as a better prospect than Cade Cunningham pre-draft. Black’s floor is a bit lower than Scoot and Henderson, but I am going to perhaps blindly put him into this tier regardless because I love this kid’s game.

Tier 3 - All-star median outcome

Empty

[CptCrunch]

Tier 4 - Role player median outcome

5. Taylor Hendricks - Hendricks stands out due to his intriguing defensive versatility. At 6'9, he possesses impressive footwork and showcases rim protection skills with almost 2 blocks per game. His shooting numbers are quite amazing for a PF this size - hitting 39.4% from beyond the arc on 4.6 attempts per game and maintaining a solid 78.2% free-throw percentage. Additionally, his nearly 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio passes the smell test for basketball IQ. Hendrick’s low high school RSCI near 50 and his play in a mid-major conference gives me pause in terms of his upside. If I don’t draft for upside, I think Hendricks is as good a role playing defensive PF as one can reasonable draft.

6. Jarace Walker – Walker, the player with the highest RSCI among the 3 PF prospects in this year, is a member of the best team in college. His significant contribution to the top-ranked college team speaks volumes about his skills and abilities. Notably, Walker excels in blocks, steals, and rebounds, showcasing impressive stats in these areas. Although his shooting may not be exceptional, a functional shot is sufficient for a power forward prospect. Walker is most likely a glue guy much like Draymond Green, but it is unrealistic for any prospect to develop into a prime Draymond (during the GSW collusion era). I came across a tweet praising Jarace Walker for being the kindest person one could ever meet, and actually believe this to be true. However, it's worth noting that being nice doesn't always correlate with success in sports.

7. Grady Dick – Dick is a sharpshooter with an unique ability to move off the ball. However, in my opinion, he may be slightly overrated due to the scarcity of impressive small forward prospects. Regardless, Dick was probaby the best player on Kansas this year despite being a Freshman. While his defense may leave something to be desired, his offensive skills are truly exceptional in terms of future potential. Interestingly, I can envision a path for him to develop into a player who excels on both ends of the court - a plus defender and an offensive force rolled into one. There really isn't anythign that would stop him from developing on both ends.

8. Cam Whitmore – Whitmore is an incredibly gifted and young player who is a dominant presence on the court. Picture DeMarcus Cousins, but scaled down in size with even more athleticism. Even before his freshman season, he showcased immense talent and explosiveness while representing the USA U18 team. However, it seems he may have added a bit too much bulk, which has somewhat impacted his agility and movement. While his versatility falls short compared to Walker, and his defense isn't on par with Hendricks, I believe Whitmore has the highest upside among power forwards in this range. At the very least, I see him evolving into a player akin to OG Anunoby, and there's even a chance he reaches the level of a Jaylen Brown. On the flip side, if his shooting doesn't progress as desired, I can see him follow the path of bad porn Maggette.

9. Cason Wallace – Wallace is a defensive point guard who should absolutely not be drafted above Black. At this point, I’m basically willing to draft any guard out of Kentucky. Calipari has a talent for making any guard look worse than they actually are at Kentucky. Kids committing to Kentucky are pretend playing school. To be fair, Wallace looked pretty damn good as a freshman. Defensive guards are pretty rare and we have two of them in the lotto this year in Black and Wallace, both of whom are SEC freshman.

10. Ausar Thompson – Read Amen Thompson below, subtract 20% athleticism, 30% play making, but unbrick the shot into a level where you are confident Ausar can become an average shooter. That’s Ausar. Sure, I think this kid and his brother can immediately combust into flames the moment they set court in the NBA, but there is no denying their athletic talents and playmaking potentials.

Tier Special – Amen Thompson is a fraud tier (draft 20+).

Amen Thompson's draft prospects are clouded by concerns surrounding his shooting mechanics, which appear to be among the most flawed among top perimeter prospects in recent memory. While some emphasize his ability to break down defenses, it is essential to recognize the challenges posed when defenders consistently play off him, similar to Ben Simmons or Westbrook. Historically, there are more instances of unreliable shooters failing to find success in the NBA compared to those who improved their shooting at the professional level (therefore I don't care if you want to list a dozen poor shooters who made in the league). Thompson's performance in OTE as a 20-year-old against younger competition was not dominant, with his scoring primarily reliant on transition opportunities, struggling in half-court sets. Notably, other players such as Dominick Barlow and Jean Montero, who performed equally if not better in OTE, went undrafted. Thompson's and Ausar's rankings around #30 in their high school class two years ago, combined with their subsequent seasons in a weak league and flashy highlight tapes, raise skepticism about their substance and the possibility of riding an online hype wave. I have unfounded suspicions that Thompson's rise is a result of a calculated and manufactured media campaign, it is important to evaluate Amen's stats in the OTE context and not give in to the manufactured and regurgiatated fud floating around. The downside of this player is too scary to warrant drafting in the lotto. If drafted top 5 as mocked, Amen is possibly the worst shooter among guards drafted this high.

Will finish with rest of my lotto and special unique prospects before the draft.

[Kalamazoo317]

White hot take on the Thompson Twins. I’m here for it!

[CptCrunch]

6/14 - FInal Bigboard

Tier 1 - Franchise Changing Talent
1. Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2 - Low tier franchise player

Tier 3 - All-star median outcome
2. Anthony Black
3. Brandon Miller
4. Scoot Henderson

Tier 4 - Role player median outcome. I feel pretty good about the top 9 prospects this year.
5. Cam Whitmore
6. Jarace Walker
7. Taylor Hendricks
8. Cason Wallace
9. Grady Dick

Tier 5 - Bench player median outcome - players here have significant issues as prospects.
10. Dereck Lively
11. Keyonte George
12. Bilal Coulibaly
13. Dariq Whitehead
14. Ausar Thompson
15. Jett Howard
16. Brice Sensabaugh
17. Jaime Jaquez
18. Kobe Bufkin
19. Jordan Hawkins
20. Amen Thompson

Rest of first round from 21 onwards, to be honest I've not looked at studied, read about these players enough to correctly rank them. Quick scan of stat scan plus reading group think mock draft mostly placed them here. Probably reasonble to draft them somewhere in the first round.

Brandin Podziemski
Leonard Miller
Amari Bailey
Trayce Jackson-Davis
GG Jackson
Jullian Phillips
Kris Murray
Marcus Sassar
Noah Clowney
Rayan Rupert
Maxwell Lewis
Sidy Cissoko
Jalen Hood Schifino
Nick Smith Jr
Amari Bailey