Jazz 2024 Mock Draft Thread

JazzP · Post #1 » by **JazzP** » Mon Jun 5, 2023 12:30 am

Perhaps it's silly to get started before the 2023 draft even happens, but since we mostly know who's staying and who's going, I wanted to take a preliminary take at outlining the 2024 draft. I'm sure things will move a lot and these initial takes might be a bit irrational anyways, but it felt like a fun starting point.

ROUND 1

JazzP · Post #2 » by **JazzP** » Mon Jun 5, 2023 1:24 am

Oh, missed some big names like Thierry Darlan, Alexandre Sarr, and Izan Almansa. Well, definitely more to keep tabs on throughout the coming year!

Norm2953 · Post #3 » by **Norm2953** » Mon Jun 5, 2023 10:11 pm

Lots of unknowns in 2024 for the two foreign bigs headed to UCLA and Arizona might be
lottery picks if they develop in college

JazzP · Post #4 » by **JazzP** » Tue Jun 6, 2023 2:37 am

Norm2953 wrote:Lots of unknowns in 2024 for the two foreign bigs headed to UCLA and Arizona might be
lottery picks if they develop in college

Definitely! I look back to some of my takes at the beginning of this past season and well, a lot has changed lol.

Is there a foreign big headed to UCLA? The foreign players I know of going there are Ilane Fibleuil and Jan Vide.

Arizona getting Motiejus Krivas is huge, I do think he is considered a valuable prospect. However I'm not sure he's going to start over Oumar Ballo this year and I don't know if Arizona would start them both (though I suppose it might not matter if he does start).

I also 100% overlooked a few players on my own radar and I'm sure there are plenty of established prospects that aren't on my radar and plenty that are yet to really debut as prospects.

JazzP · Post #5 » by **JazzP** » Fri Jul 28, 2023 9:39 pm

Well, I think there's a *bit* clearer of a landscape for what teams will look like. I think I'm being a bit optimistic about potential, so I'm sure this is still very wrong- and it does look plenty weird to me. But I made a pretty large big board that I may post elsewhere if I have time, and I scrapped together a mock draft from my various lists of NCAA/International/GLI+OTE ranks.

ROUND 1

JazzP · Post #6 » by **JazzP** » Fri Aug 25, 2023 7:35 pm

International rosters are *starting* to fill out, and I'm a bit surprised at how many young players have been signed to top level international teams. It feels like a rather stark contrast to last season. Games have yet to be played, so we'll see what the minutes and performance look like, but I think this is going to be an interesting year ahead for the NBA draft! Anyways, here's a quick update, since this is still a preseason mock I always have to put the tagline that it's bound to look silly later on, but I do think it looks a bit better than the last.

ROUND 1

Isaiah Collier, USC
Ron Holland, G-League Ignite
Justin Edwards, Kentucky
Ruben Prey, Joventut Baladona (Spain)
Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite
Jared McCain, Duke
Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana
Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky
Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse (France)
D.J. Wagner, Kentucky
Aday Mara, UCLA
Xavier Booker, Michigan St.
Jarin Stevenson, Alabama
Omaha Biliew, Iowa St.
Stephon Castle, Connecticut
Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor
Nikola Topic, KK Mega Bemax (Serbia)
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut
Cody Williams, Colorado
Kel'el Ware, Indiana
Izan Almansa, G-League Ignite
Elliot Cadeau, North Carolina
Tyrese Proctor, Duke
Mohammad Amini, FREE AGENT
Riley Kugel, Florida
Alexandre Sarr, Perth (Australia)
Bruce Thornton, Ohio St.
Nae'Qwan Tomlin, Kansas St.
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
Mookie Cook, Oregon

ROUND 2
Tyler Smith, G-League Ignite
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
Hansen Yang, Qingdao (China)
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
Sean Stewart, Duke
Mohamed Diawara, Paris Basket (France)
London Johnson, G-League Ignite
Paulius Murauskas, Arizona
Alexandros Samodurov, Panathinaikos (Greece)
Judah Mintz, Syracuse
Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide (Australia)
Kwame Evans, Oregon
Tidjane Salaun, Cholet (France)
Bobi Klintman, Cairns (Australia)
Kam Jones, Marquette
Mehmet Demirel, Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
Jordan Dingle, St. John's
Mark Mitchell, Duke
Melvin Ajinca, Saint-Quentin (France)
Trey Alexander, Creighton
Jeremy Fears, Michigan St.
Bronny James, USC
Thierry Darlan, G-League Ignite
Berke Buyuktuncel, UCLA
Arthur Kaluma, Kansas St.
Ajay Mitchell, UC Santa Barbara
Zach Edey, Purdue
Thijs de Ridder, Bilbao (Spain)
Dajuan Harris, Kansas
Reynan dos Santos, FREE AGENT

I'm still a bit high on Mohammad Amini, even though he has yet to be signed to a top level team. I think he's focusing on representing Iran at the World Cup right now and I remain optimistic that the general eagerness of teams to sign top talent means he will get his contract. He was in the AS Monaco organization (France's championship team) last year, so I think that's probably the likeliest place for him to end up.

I wasn't really expecting Hansen Yang to be signed to a team this year, even though I was including him on my 2024 prospect lists I thought it was more realistic that he'd be a prospect for later years (which he still very well might be). I remember a lot of guys I wanted to keep tabs on from U18 tournaments last year faded unsigned into obscurity.
However, it seems that Hansen Yang is one of the earlier players that have been signed for the upcoming CBA season, and he is the only player who is confirmed for Qingdao's 2023-24 roster as of yet (according to AsiaBasket).
It's fortunate to see that a team bought in and that he will get experience in a pro season this year. He's one of the most interesting prospects in recent years, in my opinion. I don't think a team in the modern NBA is going to lock in first-round contract commitments on a guy slated to be this draft's "mystery man" with some notable flaws still to work out but I also think he wouldn't last long on the board after that, he's still a very interesting unicorn with a statistical profile similar to that of a taller and (much) more raw Cooper Flagg in the limited appearances he's made.

JazzP · Post #7 » by **JazzP** » Fri Dec 1, 2023 2:51 pm

I had just been working on updating this and my big board, and I saw that ESPN had made their mock draft yesterday. I think it's interesting to see the similarities and the differences. I think they're holding a little bit closer to their preseason projections, which is probably sound (especially for a major publication).

My last version was certainly due for an update.

ROUND1

Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Robert Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Nikola Topic, Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2005
Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: NCAA 2003
Kam Jones, Marquette: NCAA 2002
Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2004
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
Jarin Stevenson, Alabama: NCAA 2005
Killian Malwaya, ALM Evreux: French LNB Pro B 2005
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Justin Edwards, Kentucky: NCAA 2003
Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
KJ Lewis, Arizona: NCAA 2004
Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Aday Mara, UCLA: NCAA 2005
Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Tyler Harris, Portland: NCAA 2005
Alex Toohey, Sydney: Australian NBL 2004
Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004

ROUND 2
Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Kobe Johnson, USC: NCAA 2003
Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Kylan Boswell, Arizona: NCAA 2005
Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
Tyrese Proctor, Duke: NCAA 2004
Wooga Poplar, Miami: NCAA 2003
Sam Alexis, Chattanooga: NCAA 2004
Judah Mintz, Syracuse: NCAA 2003
Bruce Thornton, Ohio St: NCAA 2003
DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Oleksandr Kovliar, Monbus Obradoiro: Spanish ACB 2002
Anton Watson, Gonzaga: NCAA 2000
Tamin Lipsey, Iowa St: NCAA 2003
Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
Terrence Edwards, James Madison: NCAA 2002?
Fedor Zugic, BG Goettingen: German BBL + FIBA Europe Cup 2003
Xaivian Lee, Princeton: NCAA 2004
Adem Bona, UCLA: NCAA 2003
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas: NCAA 2000
Harrison Ingram, North Carolina: NCAA 2002
Bryson Warren, Sioux Falls: G League 2004
PJ Hall, Clemson: NCAA 2002
Cade Tyson, Belmont: NCAA 2003
Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Vladislav Goldin, Florida Atlantic: NCAA 2001
Yannick Kraag, Joventut Baladona: Spanish ACB, Eurocup 2002

JazzP · Post #8 » by **JazzP** » Sun Dec 3, 2023 5:50 pm

I've looked at a few different recent mock drafts now, and I do realize that mine is fairly different. I stand by most of these impressions as of right now, but I definitely do want to note some mistakes.

I missed on Ryan Dunn. Feels obvious- he should be here. I wasn't aware of just how good his defensive impact is.
I think not including Dillon Mitchell, Baba Miller, or Trey Alexander is probably an oversight as well. I don't think I was as high on them as prospects last year, but I think I do a disservice to the improvements they have made so far this year, they should probably be included.
DJ Wagner, Trevon Brazile, and Dillon Jones should probably be on here. I can see a good case for Dalton Knecht,
Terrence Shannon, Oso Ighodaro, and Tristan da Silva; though I think they'd be more borderline.

I'm not sure I'm sold on the idea of Tidjane Salaun, Melvin Ajinca, Riley Kugel, Jared McCain, Elliot Cadeau, Mark Mitchell, or Berke Buyuktuncel declaring for 2024. I'm sure some will and any of those who do will likely get drafted, I should probably mock accordingly. Yet I think it's reasonable that all could improve their situations by waiting a(nother) year, though it's just a guess.

I do have some guys that likely won't be declaring this year on my list anyways; I think Tyler Harris can (and will) rise to legitimacy much like Taylor Hendricks did at UCF last year, but there are still plenty of games left to be played to warrant that sort of consideration, and I don't think he'd quite be a lottery pick the same way Hendricks was. But that certainly depends on if scouts think similarly. I also think Sam Alexis is a genuine breakout player, though I'm not sure Chattanooga will provide the notoriety this season he'd need for clear NBA attention.
Judah Mintz is fairly popular on mocks, but this might not be a great year for him to declare either. Bruce Thornton, DaRon Holmes, Xaivian Lee (stellar season that he's having so far), Harrison Ingram, and Cade Tyson all very well might be more likely to stay in college.

However, I do think I still have a few players included that I'm very surprised aren't more popular in other mocks:
Otega Oweh has taken the reigns of a surprisingly good Oklahoma team in his 2nd college season. I can see why the NBA might be hesitant to consider a 6'5" wing without a 3 point shot too highly, as he's only taken 5 shots from distance all season (and made all of them, though his FT% suggests that's mostly just luck). However, I think everything else about the way he's played this season, including helping to spur an upset over USC, has shown why a glass-half-full perspective might be in order: Imagine what Oweh can do when he develops a shot.
It could certainly just be me, but Oweh sort of reminds me of Jimmy Butler in playstyle. He's certainly not Jimmy's size (probably closer to Dwyane Wade's), and he's still a long ways away from being that kind of player in a league like the NBA. But he's taken a massive leap this year already as a solid two way player and I can't help but think at least the path for him to get there is visible.

Milan Momcilovic was a top 50 high school prospect averaging 14 ppg on lights-out shooting so far on a high-major college team. I feel like I'm missing something.

I sort of understand why Killian Malwaya might not be on mocks right now. I think a prospect that isn't even playing in a premier league (Malwaya is in France's LNB Pro B) probably isn't garnering the most attention right now. However, I do think Malwaya has been considered as a valuable potential prospect for the future. While his competition is not elite, I think he is still leapfrogging a few of his fellow French prospects at this particular moment in time. Other rather promising French prospects in Pro B such as Ilias Kamardine, Zacharie Perrin, and Noah Penda show just how far ahead Malwaya has surged by comparison.

I can see why KJ Lewis may not have distanced himself from McCain and Cadeau as a one-and-done worth widely considering yet, but Lewis has established a clear role on an extremely deep team that doesn't exactly have many minutes to give and I think he's done the best job so far in proving why. He seems like a jack of all trades but master of none, though I think he's genuinely good enough at everything to carry over that versatility to the NBA- something that I think is very difficult to achieve even for many with such aspirations. Arizona certainly appreciates his impact and I do think it shows.

Hansen Yang not being universally mocked seems like one of the biggest oversights around, perhaps equivalent to how I missed Ryan Dunn. I don't care what anybody's' impression of the CBA is-- Hansen Yang is the co-star of a really good team there. Like most pro leagues, there aren't many young players getting any playing time, only a handful of players under 21 have even an end of bench spot. And 18 year old Hansen Yang is *co-starring* with ex-Seton Hall star/Philadelphia 76er injury replacement Myles Powell.
His 3-point shot is still too poor to be legitimate and he absolutely still needs to hone his playmaking, averaging 3.7 assists to 3.9 turnovers per game- concerns I can understand that NBA teams might have. However, he's still a 7-1 C averaging about 17 ppg, 13 rpg, and 3 blocks per game too. I think his performance at the FIBA U19 World Cup drew some attention as a true potential unicorn who was very raw and a few years away. I don't know how many of those scouts are aware that he IS starring in a professional league right now, and even if he still isn't quite NBA ready, he might not even be as far away as many had originally thought. He absolutely should be considered a VERY real 2024 prospect and I would think the only question is where he would be drafted, not if he would.

Iowa St might just be disappointing in relative terms, but Tamin Lipsey should be a prospect. His jump shot has shown clear improvement, and even if it's still a work in progress it is legitimate. He's undersized but he's one of the few guys who I think is rather clearly good enough to compensate for it.

Speaking of undersized guards who still strike me as clear NBA prospects, I'm surprised at how little attention Mark Sears has. Perhaps the perception of Alabama is just low after losses to Ohio St and Clemson? Sears did take a pretty big step back in transitioning from mid-major Ohio to Alabama last year, and perhaps it will take more games against top schools at his current pace to win NBA teams over- but his current pace is blistering. I think he figured it out. The NBA is another huge talent gap also, but now he's developing a track record of being able to adjust.

I think the OTE program has largely been met with hesitance by the NBA, but it hasn't been completely ignored. I think media has largely ignored just how talented the prospects that have entered the program are, and I think they have honed those skills in a gauntlet of the highest precision. However, I do not think they've really had a good environment to apply those skills and I'm not sure their exhibition season has really had the same effect as even a high school competitive circuit, let alone a college or international professional circuit. I think both of these things are generally apparent in Summer League/preseason showcases that have included OTE players.
I may be overestimating Robert Dillingham (and the game against UNC Wilmington last night may be evidence), but I also think he is being slighted a bit too. Bleacher Report compared him to Bones Hyland, and with all due respect to Bones Hyland, I think that underrates Dillingham's abilities. Dillingham is not a combo guard-- even if he likes to shoot at high volume, he is an excellent passer. I think it's easy to dismiss a prized Kentucky guard as a combo guard because that seems like what practically all of them have been over the past couple years (TyTy Washington, Cason Wallace, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander [though he is a good true PG], Jamal Murray, Devin Booker). Dillingham is not that. As much as he likes to shoot, his AST% is still 39% of possessions. Even after last night's game, his AST/TO ratio is still 3.31.
I think it speaks to his ball handling, isolation intuitiveness, and quick shot to compare him to Bones Hyland in that manner. But I think the way that Dillingham has so quickly adjusted to his role on his team at the college level does not get enough attention. I probably overrated him at 3, but he should be a lottery pick, and perhaps top 10 still.

I think I could be overestimating the potential intrigue of Bryson Warren, who has not been stellar in the G League. However, he is not part of the G League Ignite program, he is playing on a far more experienced team (Sioux Falls Skyforce).Teafale Lenard (formerly of Middle Tennessee St) is in a similar situation for the Texas Legends and is unable to establish a role on the team as of yet. However, Warren has received opportunities and had a few games where he really broke out and looked solid. I'm not sure if teams will take stock in the mere flashes, and enough to draft him rather than simply leave a Summer League roster spot open, but I wouldn't disregard the possibility. I do think it's admirable that Warren jumped straight from OTE into perhaps the toughest level of competition for a prospect (save for maybe a few international leagues like Spain), and also one where he would likely have less notoriety. And even though he's been struggling a bit, I'd say he's genuinely staying afloat.

JazzP · Post #9 » by **JazzP** » Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:40 pm

I thought I'd give this another update!

I wanted to make this better fall in line with the speculation I've seen from scouts, but also still be my own interpretation of what has happened and what will happen.

ROUND 1

Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Nikola Topic, Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2005
Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Kylan Boswell, Arizona: NCAA 2005
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Dillon Mitchell, Texas: NCAA 2003
Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2004
Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
KJ Evans, Oregon: NCAA 2004
Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: NCAA 2003
Judah Mintz, Syracuse: NCAA 2003
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Justin Edwards, Kentucky: NCAA 2003

ROUND 2
Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: NCAA 2001
DJ Wagner, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Adem Bona, UCLA: NCAA 2003
Wooga Poplar, Miami: NCAA 2003
Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001
Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Trey Alexander, Creighton: NCAA 2003
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
PJ Hall, Clemson: NCAA 2002
DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Caleb Foster, Duke: NCAA 2004
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas: NCAA 2003
Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
Joel Soriano, St. John's: NCAA 2000
Killian Malwaya, ALM Evreux: French LNB Pro B 2005
Kam Jones, Marquette: NCAA 2002
Alex Toohey, Sydney: Australian NBL 2004
Terrence Edwards, James Madison: NCAA
KJ Simpson, Colorado: NCAA 2002
Terrence Shannon, Illinois: NCAA 2000
Anton Watson, Gonzaga: NCAA 2000
Fedor Zugic, BG Goettingen: German BBL + FIBA Europe Cup 2003
Xavier Johnson, Southern Illinois: NCAA 2000
Zach Harvey, KK Zdravlje Leskovac: Serbian KLS 2001

I think this draft will present opportunity for more unusual picks than would normally be the case, simply because it seems so varied. I'm finding it hard to guess what the early entry list will look like, so I'm leaning a bit more into seniors at this point in time, if only a bit.

I think it might be unwise to have dropped Tyrese Proctor from this mock- I know people seem fairly high on him and he has been a steady PG. That being said, I think he's not been remarkable and neither has Duke so far. His injury only further puts a damper on his season. I think that early 2nd round feels to me like where he would fall should he declare, and I think his ability as a prospect and the growth he has already shown, plus the premier program that he is on, afford him the opportunity to stay another year and look for a better position later.
It feels extremely difficult to guess who is staying or going at Duke, but I'm leaning with Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor staying at this point in time (with Jared McCain, Kyle Filipowski, and Caleb Foster declaring).

I think there is starting to be a fairly distinct tier of the top 8/9 prospects, but I think the order is a full-on crapshoot. I don't think Collier nor Sarr have separated themselves from the pack, particularly. But neither has anybody else. Ron Holland has as much to work on as anybody, the G League Ignite season has not been successful so far and he has a concerning TO rate and 3PT%. However, his scoring efficiency/volume is still pretty great in spite of his shooting struggles and he is consistent. Plus, he has really started to pick it up in the past few weeks, indicating strong signs of growth, I think. Of anybody in this class, I do think that Holland probably has the highest chance of breaking out into a superstar in the NBA.

Though, I think Hansen Yang might be in the top 3 of such a list of potential superstars also. I recognize that having him as a lottery pick is a reach, and that the early 2nd round where I had him in last week's mock is probably more within the boundary he will likely fall into. It makes little sense, with as much information as we do now in the modern NBA, to take a prospect in the lottery who is likely not NBA ready at this point and very reasonably may never be. However, I do think Hansen Yang has the reward to match that risk, and in a draft like this one, I think there's a team who would be willing to roll those dice rather than take a guaranteed role player, solid prospects though there still may be at that juncture of the draft.

There really haven't been many prospects from the CBA, and the recent track record is not amazing, so I do understand that there may be some reservations from the NBA. If I'm not mistaken, the last prominent prospect was Wang Zhelin, a Center who was drafted with the 57th pick in 2016.
The prospect who perhaps most fits Hansen Yang's profile might dubiously be Yi Jianlian, a lottery bust drafted in 2007.
I can't find any stats recorded for Yi Jianlian's career prior to being drafted- the first CBA stats I can see for him are those from after he left the NBA. In 2012/2013 (his age 25 season), he returned and played very well for a dominant CBA team, and according to international FIBA performances throughout his career it seems he really did start to hit his stride as a player post NBA, though he very well may have never quite gotten to an NBA level anyways.
Wang Zhelin only played 8 games the year before he was drafted, I believe due to an injury. But in the year prior (his age 20/21 season), he put up very good individual stats for a bad CBA team.

Both players' CBA stats do compare fairly evenly with Hansen Yang's stats. I think both prior prospects looked better at scoring, and it seems Jianlian's game was a bit cleaner post-NBA than Hansen's right now. But Yang looks rather clearly better at everything else. Rebounding, defense, the flashes of dynamic playmaking (that does still need work)-- On the whole, I think Yang at 18 years old still compares favorably to either of them at 21/25. Each player is their own person, I think this only describes a comparison between similarly sized prospects from the same league. I do think a franchise drafting Hansen Yang has to understand that it is a "project" pick- that being said, he did just have a 19pt/25 reb/8 ast game earlier this week (his 4th straight with 8 assists) and if he ever comes *close* to realizing his 17 pts/13.5 reb/4 ast/3 blk game within the NBA, no team in the league is going to want to say they passed over him for their 4th or 5th option (which might even still be optimistic for most late lottery/post lottery picks). I think he is fairly significantly less offensively developed than Alperen Sengun was, but I think he is ahead defensively and *could* end up comparing similarly as a prospect and player.

JazzP · Post #10 » by **JazzP** » Tue Dec 19, 2023 12:44 am

ROUND 1

Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Nikola Topic, Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2005
Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
KJ Evans, Oregon: NCAA 2004
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
DJ Wagner, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: NCAA 2003
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
Judah Mintz, Syracuse: NCAA 2003
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
Dillon Mitchell, Texas: NCAA 2003
Kylan Boswell, Arizona: NCAA 2005
Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Justin Edwards, Kentucky: NCAA 2003
Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
Caleb Foster, Duke: NCAA 2004

ROUND 2
Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Braden Smith, Purdue: NCAA 2003
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2004
JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Joel Soriano, St. John's: NCAA 2000
Wooga Poplar, Miami: NCAA 2003
Dedan Thomas, UNLV: NCAA 2005
Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001
Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas: NCAA 2003
Alex Toohey, Sydney: Australian NBL 2004
Terrence Shannon, Illinois: NCAA 2000
Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
Adem Bona, UCLA: NCAA 2003
Micah Peavy, TCU: NCAA 2001
David Jones, Memphis: NCAA 2001
Matt Bewley, Chicago St (denied eligibility by NCAA) 2004
KJ Simpson, Colorado: NCAA 2002
Zach Harvey, KK Zdravlje Leskovac: Serbian KLS 2001
PJ Hall, Clemson: NCAA 2002
Max Abmas, Texas: NCAA 2001
Kevin Cross, Tulane: NCAA 2000
Musa Sagnia, BAXI Manresa: Spanish ACB 2003

JazzP · Post #11 » by **JazzP** » Mon Jan 1, 2024 4:56 pm

Ok, I changed out quite a few players for this latest version.

I promise, I'm not a Kentucky fan, though I guess it kind of feels that way in this mock. I think this is going to be a really fun draft, I think there are definitely *some* trends that are starting to solidify but for the most part I think it will remain stunningly wide open.
I had also run a draft using RealGM's tool and lottery simulator and tried to account for team needs, and it looked quite a bit different from this version anyways.

ROUND 1

Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda: Adriatic ABA + Euroleague 2005
Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: NCAA 2003
KJ Evans, Oregon: NCAA 2004
Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Tamin Lipsey, Iowa St: NCAA 2003
Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Matthew Murrell, Mississippi: NCAA 2001
Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
Devin Carter, Providence: NCAA 2002
Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Jackson Shelstad, Oregon: NCAA 2005
Dillon Mitchell, Texas: NCAA 2003
Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001

ROUND 2
Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Kylan Boswell, Arizona: NCAA 2005
Braden Smith, Purdue: NCAA 2003
Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2004
Joel Soriano, St. John's: NCAA 2000
KJ Simpson, Colorado: NCAA 2002
DJ Wagner, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Wooga Poplar, Miami: NCAA 2003
Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
Judah Mintz, Syracuse: NCAA 2003
Antonio Reeves, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
Justin Edwards, Kentucky: NCAA 2003
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Robbie Avila, Indiana St: NCAA (2003?)
Kadary Richmond, Seton Hall: NCAA 2001
Roddy Gayle, Ohio St: NCAA 2003
Yannick Kraag, Joventut Baladona: Spanish ACB + Eurocup 2002
Bryson Warren, Sioux Falls: G League 2004
Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
David Jones, Memphis: NCAA 2001
Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Trazarien White, UNC Wilmington: NCAA 2000
RJ Davis, North Carolina: NCAA 2001
Ariel Hukporti, Melbourne: Australian NBL 2002
PJ Hall, Clemson: NCAA 2002
Tre Mitchell, Kentucky: NCAA 2000

JazzP · Post #12 » by **JazzP** » Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:38 pm

I decided to mock with teams and team needs at this stage of the process; I think it's still really difficult to try to gauge early entry decisions, but I think eligible standouts are starting to separate themselves. There are still a few big changes in this version but I think things might start to settle a bit from here, aside from confirmed and noteworthy decisions.

ROUND 1

Detroit Pistons - Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Washington Wizards - Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
San Antonio Spurs - Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Charlotte Hornets - Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Portland Trailblazers - Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Memphis Grizzlies - Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto) - Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda: Adriatic ABA + Euroleague 2005
Atlanta Hawks - KJ Evans, Oregon: NCAA 2004
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Kanaan Carlyle, Stanford: NCAA 2004
Chicago Bulls - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Memphis Grizzlies (from Golden St) - Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
New Orleans Pelicans (from LAL) - Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Houston) - Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Utah) - Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
Phoenix Suns - Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Orlando Magic - Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Miami Heat - Wooga Poplar, Miami: NCAA 2003
New York Knicks (from Dallas) - Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
New York Knicks - DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
New Orleans Pelicans - Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Cleveland Cavaliers - Otega Oweh, Oklahoma: NCAA 2003
Atlanta Hawks (from Sacramento) - Matthew Murrell, Mississippi: NCAA 2001
Indiana Pacers - Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
Philadelphia 76ers - Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Denver Nuggets - Malique Lewis, Mexico City: G League 2004
Milwaukee Bucks - Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Oklahoma City Thunder - Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: NCAA 2001
Minnesota Timberwolves - Tamin Lipsey, Iowa St: NCAA 2003
Boston Celtics - Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004

ROUND 2
Toronto Raptors (from Detroit) - Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Detroit Pistons (from Washington) - Jaedon LeDee, San Diego St: NCAA 1999
San Antonio Spurs - Antonio Reeves, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
Portland Trailblazers (from Charlotte) - Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
Milwaukee Bucks (from Portland) - DJ Wagner, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Memphis Grizzlies - Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Los Angeles Clippers (from Toronto) - Kadary Richmond, Seton Hall: NCAA 2001
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Devin Carter, Providence: NCAA 2002
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
San Antonio Spurs (from Chicago) - Jackson Shelstad, Oregon: NCAA 2005
Houston Rockets (from Golden St) - Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
San Antonio Spurs (from LAL) - Great Osobor, Utah St: NCAA 2002
Houston Rockets - Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2004
New York Knicks (from Utah) - Tre Mitchell, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
Washington Wizards (from Phoenix) - Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Orlando Magic - Chibuzo Agbo, Boise St: NCAA (2001?)
Atlanta Hawks (from Miami) - Zvonimir Ivisic, NO TEAM (Signed with Kentucky but ineligible): 2003
Sacramento Kings (from Dallas) - Ariel Hukporti, Melbourne: Australian NBL 2002
Philadelphia 76ers (from New York) - Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
New Orleans Pelicans - Coleman Hawkins, Illinois: NCAA 2001
Los Angeles Clippers (from Cleveland) - Emanuel Miller, TCU: NCAA 2000
Sacramento Kings - Bryson Warren, Sioux Falls: G League 2004
Indiana Pacers - Owen Freeman, Iowa: NCAA 2004
Los Angeles Lakers (from LAC) - David Jones, Memphis: NCAA 2001
Orlando Magic (from Denver) - Joel Soriano, St John's: NCAA 2000
Indiana Pacers (from Milwaukee) - Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon: NCAA 2000
Houston Rockets (from OKC) - Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco: NCAA 2001
Oklahoma City (from Minnesota) - Zyon Pullin, Florida: NCAA 2001
Charlotte Hornets (from Boston) - Cam Spencer, Connecticut: NCAA 2000

JazzP · Post #13 » by **JazzP** » Fri Feb 9, 2024 8:38 pm

Whew, it's been almost a month since I've posted any updated to this list. I definitely have since made a few changes, including catching up to the consensus on Donovan Clingan and Trey Alexander a bit. I remain high on Otega Oweh and Tamin Lipsey, but I opted to consider them prospects for future drafts at the moment.

One prospect in particular that my ranking drastically changed on (and differs from most others still at this point I think) is that of Indiana State's Robbie Avila, who I have as a top 5 prospect in my mock draft (and also my big board, which I have not updated online yet). I think he was already a solid player as a freshman last year who probably deserved scouts attention, though perhaps he was still very much in the periphery. But the growth he has shown from last year to this one, as well as as this very season has progressed, is remarkable. I think that's a stellar trajectory and the similarity in his playstyle to that of Nikola Jokic is likely to affect his prospect status as well. I had initially had him as a 2nd round pick whenever I did consider him as a 2024 prospect, but his productivity has ballooned even since then. I think that even if Avila were still a 2nd round "tier" prospect, teams would not let him fall that far for fear of repeating the mistake of Jokic's draft selection.
But I also just don't think he's still only a 2nd round prospect anyways. I am not going to call him the next Jokic just because he has a similar skillset. I think Kelly Olynyk is probably a more likely comparison, and I think it might even be optimistic to assume that Avila's transition to the NBA would be as seamless as Olynyk's. However, I do think that Avila has shown PLENTY of promise and that his quick improvement has shown that a superstar ceiling is certainly achievable for him. I think he could still very easily wind up on a trajectory like Alperen Sengun, too.
I'm not sure that he's quite in the true inner circle of prospects in this class, I do still think there are some safer bets, but I also genuinely don't think there are many players at all that have a higher chance of being incredibly impactful. I'm fairly sold on Avila being a lottery pick caliber prospect at this stage, with cause for higher interest still.

I know a few picks were traded at the deadline, but I'm just going off of the information I have. It isn't gonna be the lack mock I make, so I'll just try to get the updated pick rights in the next one.

ROUND 1

Detroit Pistons - Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Washington Wizards - Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
San Antonio Spurs - Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Charlotte Hornets - Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Portland Trailblazers - Robbie Avila, Indiana State: NCAA 2003
Memphis Grizzlies - Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
San Antonio Spurs (from Toronto) - Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda: Adriatic ABA + Euroleague 2005
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Atlanta Hawks - Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Houston) - Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Chicago Bulls - Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: NCAA 2001
Memphis Grizzlies (from Golden St) - Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Utah) - Johnell Davis, Florida Atlantic: NCAA 2001
New Orleans Pelicans (from LAL) - Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Orlando Magic - Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Miami Heat - JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
New York Knicks (from Dallas) - DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Toronto Raptors (from Indiana) - Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Atlanta Hawks (from Sacramento) - Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
New Orleans Pelicans - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Phoenix Suns - Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001
Philadelphia 76ers - Milan Momcilovic, Iowa St: NCAA 2004
New York Knicks - Kanaan Carlyle, Stanford: NCAA 2004
Milwaukee Bucks - Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Cleveland Cavaliers - Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
Minnesota Timberwolves - DJ Wagner, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Denver Nuggets - Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
Toronto Raptors (from OKC) - Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Boston Celtics - Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004

ROUND 2
Toronto Raptors (from Detroit) - Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Detroit Pistons (from Washington) - Antonio Reeves, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
San Antonio Spurs - Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Portland Trailblazers (from Charlotte) - Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Milwaukee Bucks (from Portland) - Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Memphis Grizzlies - Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Los Angeles Clippers (from Toronto) - KJ Evans, Oregon: NCAA 2004
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Braden Smith, Purdue: NCAA 2003
Houston Rockets - Adem Bona, UCLA: NCAA 2003
San Antonio Spurs (from Chicago) - Coleman Hawkins, Illinois: NCAA 2001
Houston Rockets (from Golden St) - Johnny Furphy, Kansas: NCAA 2004
New York Knicks (from Utah) - Devin Carter, Providence: NCAA 2002
San Antonio Spurs (from LAL) - Trey Alexander, Creighton: NCAA 2003
Orlando Magic - Anton Watson, Gonzaga: NCAA 2000
Atlanta Hawks (from Miami) - Jaedon LeDee, San Diego St: NCAA 1999
Sacramento Kings (from Dallas) - Melvin Ajinca, Saint-Quentin: French LNB 2004
Los Angeles Clippers (from Indiana) - Emanuel Miller, TCU: NCAA 2000
Sacramento Kings - Jackson Shelstad, Oregon: NCAA 2005
New Orleans Pelicans - Johni Broome, Auburn: NCAA 2002
Washington Wizards (from Phoenix) - RJ Davis, North Carolina: NCAA 2001
Philadelphia 76ers - FORFEIT
Philadelphia 76ers (from New York) - Caleb Love, Arizona: NCAA 2001
Indiana Pacers (from Milwaukee) - Andrej Jelavic, Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2004
Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland) - Hunter Cattoor, Virginia Tech: NCAA 2000
Los Angeles Lakers (from LAC) - Malique Lewis, Mexico City: G League 2004
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Minnesota) - Gabe McGlothan, Grand Canyon: NCAA (?)
Orlando Magic (from Denver) - Ariel Hukporti, Melbourne: Australian NBL 2002
Houston Rockets (from OKC) - Matthew Murrell, Mississippi: NCAA 2001
Charlotte Hornets (from Boston) - Ta'Lon Cooper, South Carolina: NCAA (?)

I have Tyler Kolek a bit higher in this mock than I do in my big board, but I don't think Phoenix adheres to others rankings much and I think they really need a point guard.

I'm growing less and less fond of the idea of Jackson Shelstad as a 2024 prospect, though I still have him here for the time being.
If I had to pick 10 candidates to take his place, they would probably be:

Boo Buie, Cam Christie, Justin Edwards, Riley Minix, Jonathan Mogbo, Malik Reneau, Myles Rice, Myles Rigsby, Hunter Sallis, Jamal Shead

I feel like it's a bit pre-emptive to have Myles Rigsby as a candidate- I certainly am quick to overestimate the resume legitimacy of low-major underclassmen, I think, and this could be no exception. But I do like Troy's team as a whole and I think the Sun Belt conference that they play in is sneaky competitive this year. But even more than that, I ask that you look deeper into Myles Rigsby's game logs- he had a solid start, but not anything noteworthy for the NBA as far as I can tell. However, he has really elevated his gameplay in the last 12 games, and I would argue he is perhaps the leading player on a rather deep team that has a solid shot at making the tournament and perhaps even causing an upset.
Something about his rise throughout the season and his playstyle reminds me very much Riley Kugel's emergence as a prospect last year, though perhaps that's a dubious comparison at this very moment in time.

HadAnEffectHere · Post #14 » by **HadAnEffectHere** » Fri Feb 9, 2024 8:40 pm

People have got to stop mocking Sarr to the Pistons, please stop it.

He's never going to learn how to shoot and Weaver has to build the entire team around Ausar and Cade to save his job. That means that if the Pistons get a center, they're getting a real stretch 5 because Ausar's offense is too bad to function otherwise.

"You don't draft for fit!" this is the idea that got the Pistons into this hole in the first place and it's not like Sarr has created any separation from the other guys in this class.

JazzP · Post #15 » by **JazzP** » Fri Feb 9, 2024 9:10 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:People have got to stop mocking Sarr to the Pistons, please stop it.

He's never going to learn how to shoot and Weaver has to build the entire team around Ausar and Cade to save his job. That means that if the Pistons get a center, they're getting a real stretch 5 because Ausar's offense is too bad to function otherwise.

"You don't draft for fit!" this is the idea that got the Pistons into this hole in the first place and it's not like Sarr has created any separation from the other guys in this class.

I agree that Sarr hasn't created much separation from the other guys in this class, if even any.
But I disagree with the notion that he will never learn how to shoot or that he even isn't potentially the best FIT option for Detroit as a 4. I could be mistaken but honestly I think his wing defense is at least as good as his post defense at the moment anyways, which is part of the intrigue.
He's certainly no sniper now though, so I could certainly see them going for someone with a more immediately developed shot. I'm not really sure anybody in this class is "the answer" for Detroit no matter what. Ideally, they don't really need anything but time, they're all a bunch of rookies and sophomores lol.

It's definitely not a projection I'm too tied to, personally. I wonder what direction they do end up leaning.

HadAnEffectHere · Post #16 » by **HadAnEffectHere** » Fri Feb 9, 2024 9:19 pm

I'm pretty certain Ausar will never learn how to shoot and thus he has to play center on offense. He's the worst shooter in NBA history relative to his era and position and he's already fairly old. You need a stretch 5 badly and Sarr's percentages from the line suck so bad that there should be no hope here.

There's no players that will fix the Pistons, but a Sarr pick just guarantees that (along with Duren), he or Ausar will get traded pretty soon and maybe not for a lot (because centers have minimal value in the NBA and Ausar requires you to build your team around him so he will have minimal value).

JazzP · Post #17 » by **JazzP** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:45 am

Here's my latest mock! I might be reaching a bit with a few mid and low major stars in the 2nd round, but I do think they're legitimate prospects whether or not they get to hear their name called. This seems like the type of year where late bloomers or underexplored talent might get a bit more opportunity, but I think the early entry list will shed the most light on the direction of the draft.

I am seeing Ulrich Chomche pop up on a lot of official mocks- I am excited by his potential, but the only news I see is that he's visiting colleges, which is consistent with what he said his plan was last fall. I think he's waiting to declare until at least 2025, though I suppose if he were to get a NBA team guarantee or something (which makes sense) it would probably be hard to pass up. I'm leaving him off until I see more buzz that he's declaring, though.

On a similar tangent, I wonder if Matt and/or Ryan Bewley declare for the draft this year, or if they opt to play internationally or in the G League or something? I don't know if they have a lot of draft "cache", but I wouldn't write off the possibility.

ROUND 1

Detroit Pistons - Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Washington Wizards - Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
San Antonio Spurs - Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Charlotte Hornets - Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Portland Trailblazers - Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Toronto Raptors - Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda: Adriatic ABA + Euroleague 2005
Memphis Grizzlies - Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Utah Jazz - Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Atlanta Hawks - Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Chicago Bulls - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Houston) - Robbie Avila, Indiana State: NCAA 2003
Portland Trailblazers (from Golden St) - Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Philadelphia 76ers - Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
New Orleans Pelicans (from LAL) - Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Miami Heat - Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
Toronto Raptors (from Indiana) - Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
New York Knicks (from Dallas) - Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: NCAA 2001
Atlanta Hawks (from Sacramento) - DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Orlando Magic - Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Phoenix Suns - Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001
New York Knicks - Devin Carter, Providence: NCAA 2002
Cleveland Cavaliers - Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State: NCAA 2004
New Orleans Pelicans - Terrence Shannon, Illinois: NCAA 2000
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Milwaukee Bucks - Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
Minnesota Timberwolves - JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Toronto Raptors (from OKC) - Darrion Williams, Texas Tech: NCAA 2003
Denver Nuggets - Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State: NCAA 2003
Boston Celtics - Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005

ROUND 2
Toronto Raptors (from Detroit) - Jaedon LeDee, San Diego State: NCAA 1999
Minnesota Timberwolves (from Washington) - KJ Simpson, Colorado: 2002
Phoenix Suns (from San Antonio) - Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Portland Trailblazers (from Charlotte) - Antonio Reeves, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
Milwaukee Bucks (from Portland) - Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
Philadelphia 76ers (from Toronto) - Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
Memphis Grizzlies - Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Memphis Grizzlies (from Brooklyn) - RJ Davis, North Carolina: NCAA 2001
New York Knicks (from Utah) - N'Faly Dante, Oregon: NCAA 2001
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Coleman Hawkins, Illinois: NCAA 2001
Boston Celtics (from Chicago) - Johnny Furphy, Kansas: NCAA 2004
Houston Rockets - Mantas Rubstavicius, New Zealand: Australian NBL 2002
Houston Rockets (from Golden St) - Malique Lewis, Mexico City: G League 2004
Philadelphia 76ers - FORFEIT
San Antonio Spurs (from LAL) - Anton Watson, Gonzaga: NCAA 2000
Atlanta Hawks (from Miami) - Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Los Angeles Clippers (from Indiana) - Trey Alexander, Creighton: NCAA 2003
Boston Celtics (from Dallas) - Enrique Freeman, Akron: NCAA 2000
Sacramento Kings - Pelle Larsson, Arizona: NCAA 2001
Orlando Magic - Chris Youngblood, South Florida, NCAA 2002
Washington Wizards (from Phoenix) - Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon: NCAA 2000
Philadelphia 76ers (from New York) - Andrej Jelavic, Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2004
Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland) - Johni Broome, Auburn: NCAA 2002
Indiana Pacers (from New Orleans) - Trey Townsend, Oakland: NCAA 2002
Los Angeles Lakers (from LAC) - Jamal Shead, Houston: NCAA 2002
Indiana Pacers (from Milwaukee) - Cam Spencer, Connecticut: NCAA 2000
Denver Nuggets (from Minnesota) - Hansen Yang, Qingdao: Chinese CBA 2005
Memphis Grizzlies (from OKC) - Riley Minix, Morehead State: NCAA 2000
Phoenix Suns (from Denver) - FORFEIT
Charlotte Hornets (from Boston) - LJ Cryer, Houston: NCAA 2001

I absolutely don't think he's quite identical to Dalton Knecht, but I think that Riley Minix is a shockingly similar prospect. A bit more of a bruiser than a shooter, but also a wing that started below D1 and has kept their absurd scoring pace at higher levels in D1 and took over as the primary option for their teams, perhaps somewhat unexpectedly.

I think Trey Townsend looked like perhaps the best player on the floor in both of his tourney games. I don't think he was entirely off the radar beforehand, either, especially after (quietly?) working on his jumper a bit. He's certainly not the main distance shooter of Oakland and probably never will be on an NBA team, but the viable threat goes a long way to complement the rest of his game.
In spite of my hesitance to put him in my mocks this year, I've been a fan of Dillon Jones for years now. I honestly wouldn't have expected coming into this year to favor Trey Townsend over him, but I really do think it would make more sense if Townsend declared early than if Dillon Jones did.

JazzP · Post #18 » by **JazzP** » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:41 pm

I wanted to update this now that there's a bit (if only still a bit) of intel about who's staying and who's going.
The standings being finalized also makes this a good time.

Here's what I have at the moment:

ROUND 1

Detroit Pistons - Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg-en-Bresse: French LNB + Eurocup 2005
Washington Wizards - Alexandre Sarr, Perth: Australian NBL 2005
Charlotte Hornets - Jared McCain, Duke: NCAA 2004
Portland Trailblazers - Ulrich Chomche, NBA Academy Africa: BAL Qualifier 2005
San Antonio Spurs - Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda: Adriatic ABA + Euroleague 2005
Toronto Raptors - Donovan Clingan, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Memphis Grizzlies - Rob Dillingham, Kentucky: NCAA 2005
Utah Jazz - Stephon Castle, Connecticut: NCAA 2004
Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn) - Isaiah Collier, USC: NCAA 2004
Atlanta Hawks - Cody Williams, Colorado: NCAA 2004
Chicago Bulls - Ron Holland, G League Ignite: G League 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from Houston) - Dalton Knecht, Tennessee: NCAA 2001
Portland Trailblazers (from Golden St) - Ja'Kobe Walter, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Atlanta Hawks (from Sacramento) - Zach Edey, Purdue: NCAA 2002
Miami Heat - Mark Sears, Alabama: NCAA 2002
New Orleans Pelicans (from LAL) - Kyle Filipowski, Duke: NCAA 2003
Philadelphia 76ers - Terrence Shannon, Illinois: NCAA 2000
Toronto Raptors (from Indiana) - Pacome Dadiet, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2005
Orlando Magic - JT Toppin, New Mexico: NCAA 2005
Cleveland Cavaliers - Reed Sheppard, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
New Orleans Pelicans - Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh: NCAA 2005
Phoenix Suns - Devin Carter, Providence: NCAA 2002
Milwaukee Bucks - Kel'el Ware, Indiana: NCAA 2004
New York Knicks (from Dallas) - Ryan Dunn, Virginia: NCAA 2003
New York Knicks - DaRon Holmes, Dayton: NCAA 2002
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Minnesota Timberwolves - KJ Simpson, Colorado: NCAA 2002
Denver Nuggets - Tidjane Salaun, Cholet: French LNB + FIBA BCL 2005
Toronto Raptors (from OKC) - Yves Missi, Baylor: NCAA 2004
Boston Celtics - Izan Almansa, G League Ignite: G League 2005

ROUND 2
Toronto Raptors (from Detroit) - Malique Lewis, Mexico City: G League 2004
Minnesota Timberwolves (from Washington) - Noah Penda, JA Vichy: French LNB (Pro B Division) 2005
Portland Trailblazers (from Charlotte) - Tyler Smith, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Milwaukee Bucks (from Portland) - Kevin McCullar, Kansas: NCAA 2001
Phoenix Suns (from San Antonio) - Antonio Reeves, Kentucky: NCAA 2000
Philadelphia 76ers (from Toronto) - Tyler Kolek, Marquette: NCAA 2001
Memphis Grizzlies - Bobi Klintman, Cairns: Australian NBL 2003
New York Knicks (from Utah) - Mantas Rubstavicius, New Zealand: Australian NBL 2002
Memphis Grizzies (from Brooklyn) - Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide: Australian NBL 2005
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Johnny Furphy, Kansas: NCAA 2004
Boston Celtics (from Chicago) - Tristan da Silva, Colorado: NCAA 2001
Houston Rockets - Dillon Jones, Weber State: NCAA 2001
Houston Rockets (from Golden St) - Ugonna Onyenso, Kentucky: NCAA 2004
Sacramento Kings - Jaedon LeDee, San Diego State: NCAA 1999
Miami Heat - Jalen Bridges, Baylor: NCAA 2001
San Antonio Spurs (from LAL) - Johni Broome, Auburn: NCAA 2002
Philadelphia 76ers - Anton Watson, Gonzaga: NCAA 2000
Los Angeles Clippers (from Indiana) - Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon: NCAA 2000
Orlando Magic - Cam Spencer, Connecticut: NCAA 2000
Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland) - Adem Bona, UCLA: NCAA 2003
Indiana Pacers (from New Orleans) - Nikola Djurisic, KK Mega MIS: Adriatic ABA 2004
Washington Wizards (from Phoenix) - Justin Edwards, Kentucky: NCAA 2003
Indiana Pacers (from Milwaukee) - Trevon Brazile, Arkansas: NCAA 2003
Boston Celtics (from Dallas) - Jamal Shead, Houston: NCAA 2002
Philadelphia 76ers (from New York) - FORFEIT
Los Angeles Lakers (from LAC) - Coleman Hawkins, Illinois: NCAA 2001
Denver Nuggets (from Minnesota) - Ajay Mitchell, UC Santa Barbara: NCAA 2002
Phoenix Suns (from Denver) - FORFEIT
Memphis Grizzlies (from OKC) - N'Faly Dante, Oregon: NCAA 2001
Charlotte Hornets (from Boston) - Nique Clifford, Colorado State: NCAA 2002

tester551 · Post #19 » by **tester551** » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:44 pm

JazzP wrote:
Portland Trailblazers - Ulrich Chomche, NBA Academy Africa: BAL Qualifier 2005
Toronto Raptors (from Indiana) - Pacome Dadiet, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Johnny Furphy, Kansas: NCAA 2004

Holy hell - These are strong takes.... I mean I appreciate it, but some of these are shocking.

Chomche at #4?
Dadiet at #18?
Buzelis at #26?
Furphy at #40?

I actually like all 4 of these players (which is why I noticed their placements). Why are you so high (relative speaking) on Chomche & Dadiet and so low on Buzelis and Furphy?

JazzP · Post #20 » by **JazzP** » Thu Apr 18, 2024 1:05 pm

tester551 wrote:
JazzP wrote:
Portland Trailblazers - Ulrich Chomche, NBA Academy Africa: BAL Qualifier 2005
Toronto Raptors (from Indiana) - Pacome Dadiet, Ratiopharm Ulm: German BBL + Eurocup 2005
Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) - Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite: G League 2004
Portland Trailblazers (from Atlanta) - Johnny Furphy, Kansas: NCAA 2004

Holy hell - These are strong takes.... I mean I appreciate it, but some of these are shocking.

Chomche at #4?
Dadiet at #18?
Buzelis at #26?
Furphy at #40?

I actually like all 4 of these players (which is why I noticed their placements). Why are you so high (relative speaking) on Chomche & Dadiet and so low on Buzelis and Furphy?

I really don't know what to do with Chomche, but I do think the absurd potential he is billed to have is real. I feel like he's NOT NBA ready yet, but I'm guessing he knows that himself, which is why I think his original plan was to go to college this coming year.

But I'm assuming that he declared with some greater awareness of how teams value him right now, and I think because this draft is so relatively weak I think his draft stock might snowball leading up to the draft. I think he is perhaps the player with the highest potential in the whole draft, even if he is decidedly a pick for the distant future.
And I think a desperate team will roll the dice surprisingly early for their opportunity to kickstart what could be their own version of "the process".
I don't know that I'm going to keep him quite that high but I do think that's roughly the tier he belongs in.

I do think teams have been much better at shying away from uncertainties with early picks, but I also think that very much has not been Portland's MO, I think they'd gladly swing for the fences once again.

As for Dadiet, I suppose there isn't much that really separates him from Furphy other than being a year younger. I was a bit surprised to see that his shooting efficiency had dipped a bit across the span of the season and he didn't get a ton of playing time, but I found the fact that he was able to be consistently rather useful (albeit not quite hyper productive) at a high professional level to be encouraging. I also don't really think there's too many question marks in his game, even if he doesn't necessarily strike me as a potential high usage NBA player. I don't know that Dadiet has enough draws to really justify putting him as high as I did, but I can see him rather easily fitting somewhere into future plans for a lot of different teams, which could help him get drafted a bit early. The fact that he can likely play 2-4 helps too.

I'm perhaps a bit lower on Buzelis than most, but not necessarily as low as this mock reflects. I have Buzelis as about 17-20th in my general big board. Maybe lottery teams will be interested in Buzelis as some mocks project, I could see it. I do think there's a lot to like in Buzelis.
But I think the shooting is a concern, I don't think he's the top prospect he came into the season as.
And part of the slide I have for him in my mock is simply that I don't think a lot of the teams in the late teens/early 20's really need to prioritize someone who will require an adjustment to be NBA ready, even if there is rather considerable potential. I could easily see him going earlier and that notion being wrong but I just couldn't really find that obvious place, myself.
Even those teams where it sorta made sense, I just happened to like another prospect for the fit.
Toronto? I do think Buzelis is the higher ceiling prospect (and perhaps the "better" one overall), but I do think Dadiet is the "safer" long term prospect and I think Toronto loves positional versatility to an absurd degree.
Orlando? JT Toppin is younger, yet still I think he's more ready immediately, and could offer more positional use as a PF/C than exclusively fighting Banchero and Wagner for minutes as I think Buzelis would be. Buzelis is STILL the higher ceiling prospect IMO, but I'd probably take Toppin if I was Orlando.
Maybe in New Orleans over Bub Carrington? I think Carrington is even further from being ready, but I think his own potential is considerable. I don't know.
I would be shocked if Phoenix, New York, or even Milwaukee were to opt for Buzelis instead of a more experienced player, regardless of Buzelis' own talents.
I also think the disaster of the G League Ignite season doesn't affect these prospects too much (fortunately), but might send a bit of ripples. I think teams were fairly cool on Ignite prospects like Miller and Cissoko last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if even the surefire prospects slip a bit, if only a bit. The only reason I don't think Almansa might slip further is because I feel as though Boston would never pass up the opportunity to draft an Al Horford successor if it's available.

I think Buzelis IS better than 26th, concerns and all, but I don't think this is outside of reason either.

Furphy I don't really have an explanation for. I *think* I was one of the first people to start putting Furphy on my mocks (idk if I posted it here in a way that matches that timeline and I could definitely be wrong), but I'll admit I haven't changed my ranking much ever since I initially did so.
I think he is tough and canny, offers a lot of that positional versatility that I valued Dadiet for, and has a solid jump shot (perhaps ahead of Dadiet? I don't tend to think so but at the very least similar). I think he's an NBA player for sure, should he choose to be, and I think he has a first round case. I genuinely could just be slow on the uptake with him. I just think he's a role player, I don't think he's a particularly EXCITING prospect either. I guess it's pretty arbitrary but I just kinda figured the season he had for Kansas put him in the 35-42 range or so. I think McCullar is still probably the slightly better prospect of the two honestly, but I think they both have good profiles and I could be underrating them both (or I could again just be flatly wrong in my evaluation between the two).