2024 Mock (but it's bad): 1-58

[babyjax13]

Tankathon sim
Have watched MOST players in the draft

1. HOU (BRK): Nikola Topic
Have not watched a ton, but my primary observation is that he has a pretty unique skill to dictate the pace of a game and manipulate defenses. I see some of what Haliburton does by using positioning, deceptive movement, and his eyes to manipulate defenses and generate open looks (by his eyes, I mean you don't know if he is looking at a player because he will pass it to them, or if he is looking at them to manipulate the defense --- Ginobili also had this). I don't quite have him on par with Brandon Miller as a prospect, but I am higher on him than earlier in the year (this could be Stockholm Syndrome). His shooting needs to improve and he lacks the shiftiness of some elite point guards.
(shades of Tyrese Haliburton, Manu Ginobili, Evan Turner)
[other picks: Bobi Klintman]

2. UTA: Kyshawn George
I'm much higher on George than the consensus and I think NBA teams will catch up. Imagine that there are several 'filters' that are predictive of success. I would argue that a player who is 6-8 and can be described as a plus shooter and plus passer has a great chance of being an impact player in the NBA. The two closest players to this archetype - which I think is one of, if not the most valuable in the NBA - are Kyshawn George and Cody Williams. Williams is younger with better physical tools, but I think George is more skilled. I do think Williams goes before George but I would feel more comfortable with Kyshawn.
(shades of Joe Ingles)
[other picks: Tidjane Saluan, Johnny Furphy]

3. POR: Alexandre Sarr
Sarr's mobility and defensive upside are intriguing, but his upside as a #1 caliber prospect, even in this draft, is dependent on your assessment of his shot. I think it is at least a few years away from projecting out to the NBA 3-point line with any reliability, which means he is a mobile and impactful rim protector who is a poor rebounder and lacks physicality. I'm not saying I dislike him, just that he is a project and I am not sure a team in the top-3 should be drafting someone who probably won't pop in his rookie year.
(shades of Jonathan Isaac, Myles Turner, Eddie Griffin)
[other picks: Tyler Smith, Hunter Sallis, Izan Almansa]

4. WAS: Stephon Castle
Castle has great feel for the game. He is an unselfish connective passer who can do some work with the ball in his hands. He is not an elite ballhandler and his shot needs a lot of work. Some players can do that, and I don't think Castle has poor touch in other areas of his game. Solid defender who is fundamentally sound and follows rotations. A team needs to value him for what he is (connective passer who is a plus defender) rather than expecting him to be Jimmy Butler - that comparison always leads to disappointment.
[other picks: Carlton Carrington, PJ Hall]

5. DET: Cody Williams
His shooting is a bit of a mirage. He shoots at low volume and is a mid-shooter from the line. I think that is a recipe for a guy who is a threat in the NBA but not elite, maybe even below average. Part of that is the setup with his legs, he has a narrow base and needs time to get it off, an NBA team should be able to do a lot to fix that. With some physical development he should draw some fouls and get to the rim in the NBA, I don't think he has the best touch but it is not terrible. Defensively very toolsy.
(shades of Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Tim Thomas)
[other picks: Melvin Ajinca]

6. CHA: Zaccharie Rissacher
Rissacher is 6-8 and can shoot, but he is not an elite shooter and I don't think has the touch to be. Handle is loose and you can tell that it is his lack of touch. Shows some passing vision but the impact of that will be mitigated a bit by his lack of handle. I like his defense, I think he is intense and smart on that end and will be an impactful roleplayer for a team. I had him #1 for a while, but some other guys have more appealing tools. That said, I think Rissacher would be a great pick in the 4-6 range.
(shades of Tayshaun Prince w/less ball handling, Wesley Johnson)
[other picks: Baylor Schiermann]

7. SAS: Ron Holland
Holland is all energy and effort with very good physical tools and underdeveloped swing skills. His shot has come a long way in the Gleague (at least, the form has) but he still shoots very poor percentages. I think, eventually, he becomes passable from three. He does not have an advanced handle or footwork and plays a bit of bully ball, but he's effective in transition and a good run-jump athlete. He does have strange moments where he gets a bit ground-bound, he seems to need a bit of a runway for his athleticism to really pop. I think this means he will be a good player in transition but less effective in the half-court. If the shot comes around, the game slows down a little, and his handle gets more advanced he could be the best player in this class ... but that's three big swing-skills to reach his maximum outcome. If he doesn't shoot, doesn't handle the ball, and doesn't process the game better - what is he? I would argue...not an NBA player.
(shades of Miles Bridges, Desmond Mason)
[other picks: Rob Dillingham, Trey Alexander, Adem Bona]

8. SAS (TOR): Rob Dillingham
Dillingham is a cerebral player who always seems to be in the right place. Extremely quick, good shooter, can attack a defense and create opportunities with his handle. He isn't a pure distributor but he is still more of a point guard than a 'combo guard.' Defense will obviously be an issue with his slight frame, but I thought he played passing lanes well and was generally in the right position.
(shades of Jeff Teague, Immanuel Quickley)

9. MEM: Donovan Clingan
Clingan's appeal is great rim protection, great rebounding, and good passing for his position. Poeltl and Bogut comparisons are probably overused, but he does remind me in some respects of the Utah centers of yore. Questions remain about his ability to play starter's minutes and whether he will be impactful on offense. Right now I see a player who should be similar in impact to Poeltl and Mitchell Robinson as he develops an NBA-ready body.
(shades of Jakob Poeltl, Chris Kaman)
[other picks: Terrence Shannon]

10. ATL: Matas Buzelis
At this point in the draft teams must choose between hypothetical skillsets from players with interesting physical tools, or actual skillsets from players that lack those tools. Buzelis feels like a Toronto pick: long, competitive, hypothetically a good playmaker for his size who is also hypothetically a good shooter.
[other picks: none]

11. CHI: Dalton Knecht [other picks: none]
12. OKC (HOU): Ja'Kobe Walter [other picks: none]
13. SAC: Jared McCain [other picks: Nikola Đurišić]
14. POR (GSW): Tyler Smith
15. MIA: Isaiah Collier [other picks: Dillon Jones]
16. PHI: Tristan da Silva [other picks: Oso Ighodoro]
17. LAL: Reed Shepperd [other picks: Grant Nelson]
18. ORL: Kel'el Ware [other picks: Juan Nunez]
19. TOR (IND): Kevin McCullar [other picks: Ulrich Chomche]
20. CLE: Cam Christie [other picks: none]
21. NOP (MIL): Kyle Filipowski [other picks: none]
22. PHX: Devin Carter [other picks: none]
23. MIL (NOP): Jaylon Tyson [other picks: Ajay Mitchell, KJ Simpson]
24. NYK (DAL): Ryan Dunn [other picks: Zach Edey, Justin Edwards]
25. NYK: Zach Edey
26. WAS (LAC): Carlton Carrington
27. MIN: Jamir Watkins [other picks: Trevon Brazil,
28. DEN: DaRon Holmes [other picks: Matthew Cleveland]
29. UTA (OKC): Tidjane Salaun
30. BOS: Yvis Missi [other picks: Coleman Hawkins]

31. TOR (DET): Ulrich Chomche
32. UTA (WAS): Johnny Furphy
33. MIL (POR): Ajay Mitchell
34. POR (CHA): Hunter Sallis
35. SAS: Trey Alexander
36. IND (TOR): Kwame Evans [other picks: Pacome Dadiet, Noah Penda]
37. MIN (MEM): Trevon Brazil
38. NYK (UTA): Justin Edwards
39. MEM (BRK): Terrence Shannon Jr.
40. POR (ATL): Izan Almansa
41. PHI (CHI): Oso Ighodaro
42. CHA (HOU): Baylor Schiermann
43. MIA: Dillon Jones
44. HOU (MIN): Bobi Klintman
45. SAC: Nikola Đurišić
46. LAC (IND): Tyler Kolek
47. ORL: Juan Nunez
48. SAS (LAL): Adem Bona
49. IND (CLE): Pacome Dadiet
50. IND (NOP): Noah Penda
51. WAS (PHX): PJ Hall
52. GSW (MIL): Judah Mintz [other picks: none]
53. DET (NYK): Melvin Ajinca
54. BOS (DAL): Coleman Hawkins
55. LAL (LAC): Grant Nelson
56. DEN (MIN): Matthew Cleveland
57. MIL (OKC): KJ Simpson
58. DAL (BOS): Antonio Reeves

Bubble: Reece Beekman, Wooga Poplar, Wesley Cardet Jr., Jonathan Mogbo, Sion James, Ugonna Onyenso, RJ Davis, Hunter Dickenson, Jamal Shead, Harrison Ingram, David Jones, Thierry Darlan

Players I am interested in (bold = probably moves into the mock): Leon Bond, Caleb Love, Ernest Udeh, Arthur Kaluma, Jarin Stevenson, Cameron Carr, Omaha Biliew, AJ Johnson, Garwey Dual, Mathias M'Madi, Jan Vide, Efe Abogidi, Babacar Sane, Guillermo Diaz, Riley Kugel, Kanaan Carlyle, Bruce Thornton, Nique Clifford

2025: Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau (late first to UDFA), Trentyn Flowers, Kylan Boswell (2nd round), Alex Karaban (late first to mid second), Bronny James (2nd to UDFA), Robbie Avila, Tyrese Proctor, Aaron Bradshaw, Mackenzie Mgbako, Zvonimir Ivisic, DJ Wagner, Dink Pate, Hansen Yang, Thierry Darlan, Otega Oweh

[clyde21]

Livingston already drafted

[babyjax13]

Working on update

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes)
Subject to change, have seen everyone play a full game other than Juan Nunez

Tier 1 (future MVP candidate):
no one

Tier 2 (all NBA + multi-time all star):
no one

Tier 3 (multi-time all-star):
1. Nikola Topic
2. Kyshawn George
3. Cody Williams
4. Ron Holland

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a good starter):
5. Zaccharie Rissacher
6. Stephon Castle
7. Alexandre Sarr
8. Donovan Clingan
9. Zvonimir Ivisic

Tier 6 (solid starter):
10. Matas Buzelis
11. Isaiah Collier
12. Ja'Kobe Walter
13. Rob Dillingham
14. Jared McCain
15. Reed Sheppard
16. Zach Edey
17. Kyle Filipowski
18. Tyler Smith
19. Tidjane Salaun

Tier 7 (Low-end starter/high-end bench player)
20. Johnny Furphy
21. Carlton Carrington
22. Yvis Missi
23. Jamir Watkins
24. Oso Ighodaro
25. Kwame Evans
26. Kevin McCullar
27. Trey Alexander

Tier 7 (high-end bench player, 6th/7th man)
28. Devin Carter
29. KJ Simpson

Tier 8 (solid rotation player, 7th-9th man)
30. DaRon Holmes
31. Baylor Schiermann
32. Matthew Cleveland
33. Pacome Dadiet
34. Hunter Sallis
35. Bobi Klintman
36. Coleman Hawkins
37. Izan Almansa
38. Hansen Yang
39. Dillon Jones
40. Adem Bona
41. Trevon Brazil
42. Judah Mintz
43. Terrence Shannon Jr.

Tier 9 (edge of rotation)
44. Kel'el Ware
45. Nikola Đurišić
46. Antonio Reeves
47. Tristan da Silva
48. DJ Wagner
49. Melvin Ajinca
50. Mackenzie Mgbako
51. Juan Nunez
52. Grant Nelson
53. RJ Davis

Tier 10 (fringe-NBA player)
54. Ryan Dunn
55. Tyler Kolek
56. Cam Spencer
57. PJ Hall
58. Jamal Sheed
59. Aaron Bradshaw
60. Reece Beekman
61. Wooga Poplar
62. Hunter Dickenson

[HadAnEffectHere]

Is there literally anything Matas does well other than being tall.

[babyjax13]

Is there literally anything Matas does well other than being tall.

I think he will be a good shooter, very fluid for his height, I think he's going to be a power forward who puts the ball on the floor, shoots well, and as he fills out will be probably below average defensively.

[babyjax13]

Updated, still more guys I need to see that likely make it into the mock, so the back end of this are more likely to be UDFA. Some guys that I've watched but are placed more based on initial impression than an eval based on a few games (Ivisic, Kyshawn George, Brazil). Still, I'm getting closer to having something plausible, I think.