Prince among Thieves – securing your steals: 2023-2024

[PerkinsFor3]

Man, blocks and steals are harder and harder to find, meaning you’ll likely have to pay up a fair amount if you’re looking to obtain them through trades or early on in drafts.

As always, let’s take a look at some numbers from the past, and see how they compare to the current day NBA. For these numbers, I only go by the top 180 Fantasy players for each season.

How many players averaged 2 steals per game, or more in the 2022-2023 season?

22: 0
21: 1
20: 1
19: 2
18: 3
17: 6
16: 3
15: 6
14: 4
13: 3
12: 4
11: 3
10: 3
09: 3
08: 2
07: 6
06: 7
05: 5
04: 5
03: 4
02: 6
01: 4
00: 7
99: 7
98: 13
97: 8
96: 9
95: 8
94: 7
93: 9
92: 10
91: 12
90: 15
89: 14
88: 15
87: 13

As you can see, 22-23 was the first season in modern day NBA where not a single player averaged two steals or more per game. And we could’ve seen it coming, as we only had two players (Butler and Dejounte) topping that number over the past two seasons. Looking at averages, steals have been clearly trending down, as well:

2022 – 2023 OG Anunoby at 1.90
2021 – 2022 Dejounte Murray at 2.00
2020 – 2021 Jimmy Butler at 2.10
2019 – 2020 Ben Simmons at 2.00
2018 – 2019 Paul George at 2.20
2017 – 2018 Victor Oladipo at 2.36
2016 – 2017 Draymond Green at 2.03
2015 – 2016 Stephen Curry at 2.14
2014 – 2015 Kawhi Leonard at 2.31
2013 – 2014 Chris Paul at 2.48
2012 – 2013 Chris Paul at 2.41
2011 – 2012 Chris Paul at 2.53
2010 – 2011 Chris Paul at 2.35
2009 – 2010 Rajon Rondo at 2.33
2008 – 2009 Chris Paul at 2.77
2007 – 2008 Chris Paul at 2.71
2006 – 2007 Baron Davis at 2.14
2005 – 2006 Gerald Wallace at 2.51
2004 – 2005 Larry Hughes at 2.89
2003 – 2004 Baron Davis at 2.36
2002 – 2003 Allen Iverson at 2.74
2001 – 2002 Allen Iverson at 2.8
2000 – 2001 Allen Iverson at 2.51
1999 – 2000 Eddie Jones at 2.67
1998 – 1999 Kendall Gill at 2.68
1997 – 1998 Mookie Blaylock at 2.61
1996 – 1997 Mookie Blaylock at 2.72
1995 – 1996 Gary Payton at 2.85
1994 – 1995 Scottie Pippen at 2.94
1993 – 1994 Nate McMillan at 2.96
1992 – 1993 Michael Jordan at 2.83
1991 – 1992 John Stockton at 2.98
1990 – 1991 Alvin Robertson 3.04
1989 – 1990 Michael Jordan at 2.77
1988 – 1989 John Stockton 3.21
1987 – 1988 Michael Jordan 3.16

What’s the average amount of steals these top 180 players got for each season?

2022 – 2023: 0.91414065
2021 – 2022: 0.93410100
2020 – 2021: 0.93027035
2019 – 2020: 0.94299695
2018 – 2019: 0.94633821
2017 – 2018: 1.02901983
2016 – 2017: 1.01595659
2015 – 2016: 1.05094439
2014 – 2015: 1.00882484
2013 – 2014: 1.02068121
2012 – 2013: 1.05136976
2011 – 2012: 1.01746295
2010 – 2011: 0.98020540
2009 – 2010: 0.99888955
2008 – 2009: 1.01569093
2007 – 2008: 1.01325937
2006 – 2007: 1.01503578
2005 – 2006: 0.99135125
2004 – 2005: 1.04485752
2003 – 2004: 1.07774316

Where it was hovering around 1 steal per game for years, it’s now clearly in danger of dipping below 0.9 steals per game, which means guys getting close to 2 steals per game are becoming more and more valuable.

Your league leaders for steals (all avg over 1.5 spg):

Anunoby – 1.9
Delon Wright 1.8
Jimmy Butler – 1.8
FVV – 1.8
SGA – 1.7
Melton – 1.6
Haliburton – 1.6
Ant Edwards – 1.6
Trent – 1.6
Herb Jones – 1.6
Players averaging over 1.3 spg:

Chris Paul – 1.5
Smart – 1.5
Dejounte Murray – 1.5
Caruso – 1.5
Paul George – 1.5
KCP – 1.5
Donovan Mitchell – 1.5
Fultz – 1.5
Oubre – 1.4
Kevin Porter jr. – 1.5
Kahwi – 1.4
Jalen Williams – 1.4
Killian Hayes – 1.4
Doncic – 1.4
That’s it. For reference, 10 years ago, in the 2012-2013 season, there were 21 players who averaged 1.5 steals per game, or more.

Let’s zoom in on some of the names listed here:

OG – Always averaging around 1.5 spg, with a bump last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down a bit more, towards 1.5 spg again.
Delon – Bit up and down, obviously heavily related to his minutes increase/decrease. Charlotte likes him as a back up PG, so situation probably wouldn’t change too much for him. I see him getting around 24 mpg again, which means he could end up top 3 in spg again. What I don’t like is that his role always seems to be somewhat up in the air. Just needs ~24 mpg to make a dent in spg, but doesn’t help out much elsewhere.
Butler – The safest play you could make for steals, however his games played per season hovers around 60, so that means he’s probably gonna max out at 120 steals for the season: still good.
FVV – Now in Houston. Probably will split some minutes with KPjr and Thompson. FVV likes to gamble playing the passing lanes. Every season since 19-20 he’s almost reached 2 spg. I don’t think he dips too much, but who knows: Nurse’s system really pushed for players to put unrelenting pressure on ball handlers.
SGA – Keeps trending up. I would not be surprised to see him lead the league in steals next year. Even though the usage might decrease a bit, he still is a good bet to give Jokic some competition as the best overall fantasy performer next year.
Melton – Sixers guaranteed his contract, and with Harden’s status up in the air, it’s hard to predict what will happen. He’s now coached by Nick Nurse now, so that should at least keep your eyes on Melton as a possible league leader in steals. Also posted a single game-high (along with D’Angelo Russell) of 7 steals last season.
Haliburton – While not a great defender, I can see his steals sustain, or rise, as the rest of the team matures.
Ant Edwards – stock will be soaring in drafts, and I feel his hype might be overblown a bit. Incredibly interesting upside, though. Do I see a lot of upside here for steals, beyond what he’s shown? I doubt it.
Trent – Not buying this stock. Nurse is gone, and I’m not even sure if Trent’s role is secure. Might even get dealt. I’m looking elsewhere for steals.
Herb Jones – I think he is what he is. And that’s usueful. However, what if the Pelicans have Zion more available this season? Do you continue to play him with Herb, or do you opt to surround Zion with better shooters, like Trey, most of the time?
Dejounte Murray – Probably more of the same – led the league in steals during his last season with the Spurs, but now gambles a bit less and has to cover for Trae a bit more. 1.5-1.6 is what I expect from him, as is the case with Smart, Paul, George, and Mitchell. Kawhi could increase his averages from a career-low 1.4 per game, but I just don’t trust him enough to play sufficient games.
I won’t be buying any KPjr, Hayes, Oubre or Fultz stock for steals this year, as they either won’t play enough or will have tough competition for their roles (Fultz). Doncic’ steals dipped post AS game, which also was when Kyrie played most of his games. I don’t trust Doncic to sustain the 1.4 spg he posted last season, and expect him to average closer to a single steal a game.
Jalen Williams is a dark horse to make it to the top three in steals this season. Hovered right around 1.7-2.0 steals per game post-all-star, and that team continues to improve, with Holmgren now manning the paint.

Some under the radar names to keep an eye on, in rostered % tiers:

50%+ rostered
Immanuel Quickley – Such a fun player, and I think he’s only going to continue to improve. Plays both ends of the floor really well, and I’d just love to see him and Grimes in the back court together. I feel like Quickley is one of the more underrated guards in the league. 61% rostered.
Tre and Tyus Jones – Both in somewhat similar situations in San Antonio and Washington. I don’t trust either of them long term, but time and time again, they’ve also shown to be incredibly useful back up point guards. Both should get enough minutes to produce in assists and steals (at least 1.2 per game), while not ruining your TO (Tyus sitting at 5.2:0.9).
Zach Collins – Where many believed Wemby would push Zach to the bench, it sounds like they’re going to start together. Zach Collins is a sneaky play for steals at the C position, as he averaged over a steal per game post AS break last season. Rostered in 62% of Yahoo’s leagues, he’ll be hard to obtain.

25-50% rostered
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Only rostered in 50% of Yahoo’s leagues now. Granted, he’s a specialist, but getting 1.8 threes and 1.5 spg at his price, could be a bargain. Secure role with the Nuggets, and doesn’t dent your team anywhere, really.
Paul Reed – Keeping a firm eye on Reed and the Sixers’ situation. With the Celtics and Bucks improving their teams a lot, and the Sixers (and Heat) sitting on their thumbs, mostly, I could see Morey wanting to start with a clean sheet soonish. Reed is locked up on a quite friendly contract and has huge upside. I know there were videos of him shooting the three off the dribble, but the shot still looked bad. Otherwise, Reed can do it all. Including racking up steals. As a center, which makes them even more valuable. Just a lot of risk involved, as his role is up in the air right now. Rostered in 33% of Yahoo’s leagues, Reed does almost always produce when getting the minutes (14 steals, 22 blocks in 8 games in which he got 20+ minutes).
Tari Eason – Rostered in 46% of Yahoo’s leagues, most people can’t wait until Eason breaks out. Already averaging 1.2 spg in just 21 mpg, his upside is incredible for fantasy managers. I really want to see Eason (and Smith) run with a point guard, instead of whatever KPjr thought he was doing. Eason averaged almost two steals in 5 games as a starter, and he could find himself in the top three next season.
Amen and Amir Thompson – While they’re quite different as players, I believe both will be among the league leaders in steals from the get-go. They’re very strong and have both quick hands and feet. Minutes are available for both, as well.

0-25% rostered
Matisse Thybulle – Could walk into a starting SF role with the Blazers, and averaged close to 1.7 steals per game over his last 20 games last season (27.6 mp).
Delon Wright – As mentioned above, status is up in the air, and with him, it’s really only about steals. But he racks them up. Only rostered in 8% of Yahoo’s leagues.
Donte DiVincenzo – Numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s useful (1.3 spg). Knicks have some interesting positional battles, which brings me to…
Quentin Grimes – One of my favorite break out players for next season. I’m incredibly sure he’s going to put it all together. His defense hasn’t translated to great steals numbers as of yet, but I’m willing to bet money that he’s gonna be a hot target soon. Propping up Quickley and Grimes makes me sound like a Knicks fan. Which I’m definitely not. Only rostered in 20% of Yahoo’s leagues.
Josh Green – Dallas has horrible depth, and horrible defense. Josh Green should see a lot more minutes this season, and he’s a good defender. As with Grimes, the defense hasn’t translated to great steals numbers as of yet, but he could get there soon. Rostered in 7% of Yahoo’s leagues.
Jaden Springer – Only rostered in 1% of Yahoo’s league for a reason. Still can’t shoot, or score, really. But his defense is amazing. In the right built, he could be a fun player down the road (do the Sixers blow it up? And is Springer going to be part of any plans after that?), but right now the Sixers have a better, and more complete version of Springer in Melton.
Anthony Black – Only rostered in 10% of Yahoo’s leagues, which is less than Suggs (13%), and I truely believe Black is going to kill it this season. Such a smart, strong and skilled player. I also think he’ll be among the rookie leaders in steals per game. I’m not too worried about Suggs, and I think he’s also a better fit than Fultz.
Kris Dunn – Depending on how the Jazz back court shakes out (I believe Keyonte George will be starting before year’s end), Dunn could win that starting PG position, as he did quite well for the Jazz later last season. If he does, he could be a top 5 player in steals per game. Interesting streamer, rostered in 8% of Yahoo’s leagues.
Cam Whitmore – With KPjr being gone, minutes have just opened up for Whitmore, who could surprise a lot of people (rostered in 9%), as he can produce across the board if give minutes. Averaged 1.4 steals per game in college.
Dyson Daniels – Sometimes reminds me of Anthony Randolph, in the sense that he has so many tools and so much raw talent, yet he’s also so incredibly… raw. A lot of the stuff he does seems to be relying on talent and instincts, but going back to the basics is hard for him. The Pelicans have quite a few options at guard, but I’m interested to follow Daniels closely.
Jaylin Williams – I truely believe Chet Holmgren would play best, at least early on in his career, with Jaylin next to him. If Williams tops 24 mpg, he could be a useful source of steals at the C position. I think Jaylin Williams could develop into a player in the mold of an Al Horford (albeit the chance of reaching that same level is small).
Alex Caruso – Definitely belongs as a target for any team looking to add steals to its roster. Caruso will see enough minutes to be useful, and always comes through. With steals. Can you survive the lack of production in other cats?