Big Ten fans will have to wait one more week for my final preview, but my ACC Preview, MWC Preview, SEC Preview, WCC Preview, A10 Preview, Big East Preview, American Preview, Pac-12 Preview, MVC Preview, and Big 12 Preview are now online. Today I want to talk about the other 21 conferences.
Most college basketball writers (including me) will tend to focus on the 11 conferences above because those are the conferences that are the most likely to produce multiple bids to the NCAA tournament. The WCC is really only on the list because of the top of the league (Gonzaga, BYU, and St. Mary's), and the MVC has been fading in recent years. But since the MVC has a high number of returning minutes this year, you can make a compelling case that the distinction between the Top 11 and the Next 21 is only going to grow.
Conference realignment has only magnified the separation, as the major conferences have done their best to absorb the most successful mid-major programs. If you take the average Pythagorean Winning Percentage of every D1 program since Ken Pomeroy has been tracking the stat, the Top 70 programs are all in those 11 conferences. In fact, 94 of the Top 100 programs in that time span are in those 11 conferences. The exceptions are UAB, Kent St., Old Dominion, Akron, UTEP, and Charlotte. (Kent St. may be a bit of a surprise since they haven't been to the tournament a lot, but last year was Kent St.'s first losing season in the MAC since 1997.)
Recruiting is a key distinction between the top 11 and the next 21. The Top 11 conferences have 314 players who were Top 100 recruits out of high school. The other 21 conferences have only 18 players who were Top 100 recruits out of high school. But teams in the next 21 conferences are often very skilled even without elite recruits. Often the bigger obstacle these teams face is the lack of opportunities to play Top 100 opponents at home or on a neutral court. Without those chances, it can be difficult to build an at-large worthy resume.
Stephen F. Austin isn't going to make the tournament based on great margin-of-victory numbers. Their only hope is to pick up two or three signature non-conference wins against elite programs. Every year someone will do that, but guessing which of the many talented teams from these 21 leagues will build the best non-conference profile is always a roll of the dice. And the team that picks up a couple of signature non-conference wins isn't necessarily the best team.
The next table shows how I project these leagues shaking out this season. Rank LY is the rank of the conference last year based on the average Pythagorean winning percentage of the teams. Proj Rk is the rank of the conference this season based on the average projected Pythagorean winning percentage. Avg RM is the average returning minutes in the conference.
|
Conf |
Rank LY |
Avg RM |
Proj Rk |
|
Ivy |
3 |
69% |
1 |
|
BW |
8 |
66% |
2 |
|
MAC |
5 |
66% |
3 |
|
Horz |
1 |
54% |
4 |
|
CUSA |
4 |
54% |
5 |
|
MAAC |
2 |
64% |
6 |
|
Pat |
10 |
75% |
7 |
|
Sum |
7 |
57% |
8 |
|
CAA |
6 |
51% |
9 |
|
OVC |
12 |
56% |
10 |
|
SB |
9 |
49% |
11 |
|
BSth |
16 |
64% |
12 |
|
WAC |
11 |
44% |
13 |
|
BSky |
15 |
63% |
14 |
|
AE |
17 |
57% |
15 |
|
ASun |
14 |
62% |
16 |
|
SC |
19 |
59% |
17 |
|
NEC |
13 |
59% |
18 |
|
Slnd |
18 |
54% |
19 |
|
MEAC |
20 |
53% |
20 |
|
SWAC |
21 |
55% |
21 |
Obviously a conference average doesn't tell the whole story:
Ivy League: I won't argue with anyone that puts Harvard in their Top 25, but they don't have quite enough guard depth for my model to put them there. Siyani Chambers and Wesley Saunders are going to have to play basically the whole game, and they need Corbin Miller, returning from his LDS mission, to pick up where he left off and make some threes. It is amazing to say it, because Kyle Casey was a brilliant player, but Harvard's frontcourt may be even more productive this season. Steve Moundou-Missi is a total stat-sheet stuffer. Jonah Travis is a pure scorer (who might have to play some at the wing this year.) Kenyatta Smith is returning from injury and he's going to play a major role. Zena Edosmwan didn't play much last year, but as one of the highest ranked Harvard recruits of all time, either the recruiting experts were wrong or he is in for a big sophomore leap. Angunwa Okolie will also benefit from the sophomore leap, and Chris Egi is another very highly ranked freshmen. I don't know exactly which players win that competition for playing time, but I'm pretty sure the winners are going to be good.
But the reason the Ivy League moves up to the best of the rest this year is because there are three other very good teams at the top. My model always seems to love Columbia a little too much, but head coach Kyle Smith has steadily improved this program. Columbia used to finish every season in the 250-300 range. But under Smith they finished with the 123rd best margin-of-victory in the nation last year. And with everyone back, a Top 100 finish is within reach. Meanwhile, Yale brings nearly everyone back, Princeton is always good, and all three of those teams can give Harvard a competitive game.
But it doesn't just end at the top. Brown and Dartmouth bring nearly everyone back and will be better. And even bottom feeder Cornell should benefit from the return of Shonn Miller, who was injured last year. Only Penn seems headed in the wrong direction. Last year's 5-9 Ivy League mark looked like rock-bottom, but based on the improvements elsewhere in the league, Penn could be headed to even fewer conference wins this season. Penn head coach Jerome Allen is firmly on the hot seat.
My main worry with Ivy League is simply the lack of neutral site games against quality opponents. Since the Ivy League teams still have to play most of their marquee games on the road, I'm not sure their non-conference win-loss profile will reflect how good the conference is this year.
Big West: Thanks to 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye, UC Irvine's defense should stay elite. UC Irvine’s offense was pretty dreadful last year, but with the majority of the rotation back, the offense should improve. And with a passable offense, Irvine might even be able to sneak into the at-large discussion. UC Santa Barbara still has super-scorer Alan Williams and they get TJ Taylor back from injury. Taylor was a great passer and solid outside shooter as a sophomore, but he had hip problems that held him out last season. Meanwhile, Long Beach St. was a different team after UCLA transfer Tyler Lamb became eligible last December. Having Lamb for the full season will be huge.
Even the bottom of the league will be better. CS Fullerton adds some key transfers that are going to move the needle quite a bit. And after three key players sat last year (two due to injury) for UC Davis, I expect the return of those players to make UC Davis one of the most improved teams in the country. I still expect UC Davis to finish near the bottom of the Big West, but because the Big West will be better from top to bottom, I expect this to be one of the most improved conferences in the nation.
MAC: Toledo is going to get a lot of love based on the players they have coming back. The only reason I don’t have them as the clear MAC favorite is that I think they still have a lot of questions in the front-court. Nathan Boone is 6'9" but he is a poor rebounder and he plays much smaller than his size. Matt Smith is gone. And as great a rebounder as JD Weatherspoon is, he's still only 6'6". Toledo was a brilliant offensive team last year, but the lack of quality interior play meant the team's 2 PT FG% defense was dreadful. And if Toledo can't stop opponent from making 2's, I'm not sure they can do much to improve on last year's record. They need one of the young forwards to take an unexpected leap forward. Unfortunately, Zach Garber was very passive last year, and Aubrey Williams barely saw the court, so there isn't a lot of reason to expect those two to be quality post players this year.
Akron loses a ton of production, but Deji Ibitayo and Isaiah Johnson were quality reserves that should be ready to step into bigger roles and keep the team on a winning roll. The return of Jake Kretzer, who was injured in mid-February last year, will also be huge. Ohio also loses a ton of production, but their MAC title chances hinge on whether Kenny Kaminsky is granted immediate eligibility. Since he was dismissed from Michigan St., I think there is a strong chance Kaminsky will be granted a waiver.
When you look at my rankings at the end of October, Western Michigan may stand out as a surprise. A lot of people will have them as the MAC favorites after star David Brown was granted an extra year of eligibility. But I’m really concerned about the loss of 6'11" center Shayne Whittingon. Western Michigan didn't have another player over 6'6" in the final rotation last year and they don't have any key transfers coming in. They will likely be using a low-skilled inexperienced big man, or a very small lineup next year. Brown's return means the offense will be better, but with a slightly worse defense, I see them as a MAC title contender, not the favorite.
Finally, Kent St. looks like a sleeper team. Not only are four efficient starters back (Kris Brewer, Derek Jackson, Devareaux Manley, and Kellon Thomas), the team also adds three D1 transfers. The key is Jimmy Hall. Hall was kicked out of Hofstra after being arrested for burglary, but he was off to a brilliant start as a freshman. He looks like a very high potential option. Rutgers transfer Craig Brown and Rhode Island transfer Blake Vedder don't have quite the same upside, but the drop in competition level should help them, and after how poorly Kent St.'s bench played last year, their experience will help a lot.
Horizon: In March, Cleveland St. looked like they might be the favorite. But then it was announced that Sebastian Douglas was done with basketball due to all his knee injuries. And then it was announced that leading scorer Bryn Forbes was transferring to Michigan St. Defending champ Green Bay brings back a lot of players, but the loss of the 7 footer in the middle is going to hurt the defense quite a bit. Both teams will still be the class of the conference, but they don’t look quite as strong as last year.
Conference USA: CUSA has more high school talent than the other conferences in this preview, but they lack a clear at-large caliber team at the top, largely because many of the top teams have suffered devastating talent defections this off-season. Southern Miss, UAB, and Middle Tennessee are basically starting over, and while they have some transfers to help with that process, they will have a hard time finishing in the Top 4 in CUSA.
Louisiana Tech loses a ton of talent to graduation, but the return of Raheem Appleby, who missed much of last year due to injury, might make them the favorite. UTEP should also be in the conversation for the league title. Few teams could lose a post player that rebounds and scores as effectively as John Bohannon and not suffer because of it, but UTEP had incredible post depth with Matt Wilms, Cedrick Lang, and Vince Hunter last year. They shouldn’t miss a beat.
Old Dominion might be my biggest sleeper team nationally. I know Dimitri Batten left for Boston College, but he shot too much, and his efficiency was below that of most of his teammates. ODU returns six effective players, Aaron Bacote, Keenan Palmore, Richard Ross, Denzell Taylor, Ambrose Mosley, and Jordan Baker, the last three of whom should benefit from the sophomore leap. Deion Clark should be back after suffering a knee injury last summer. But the reason I have ODU jumping up so much nationally is that they add two high impact transfers. Trey Freeman was a very efficient PG who played major minutes and scored major points for Campbell two years ago. And George Mason’s Jonathan Arledge was a dominant big man. Arledge was aggressive, efficient, great on the boards, and an occasional shot-blocker for George Mason. Those two players will upgrade ODU substantially.
I’m also very high on Western Kentucky. They only have 60% of their minutes back which doesn’t sound that high, but that is deceiving. Aleksej Rostov and Kevin Kaspar played limited minutes last year due to injury. And Chris Harrison-Docks and Trency Jackson didn’t debut until December. The loss of senior starter Caden Dickerson is also highly over-rated as Dickerson used only 11% of his team’s possessions when on the floor. WKU is really a veteran team with most of its points’ producers returning.
The one team I’m not as high on as some other prognosticators is Charlotte. The 49ers add two 4-star transfers in Clemson’s Bernard Sullivan and Florida’s Braxton Ogbueze. You might think I’m not excited because those two players didn’t perform well with their last teams. But with talented athletes, sometimes they just weren’t a good fit with the previous team. The real issue is that my model doesn’t believe in head coach Alan Major at this point. I know that the Charlotte roster was not in great shape when he took over, but Charlotte was not one of the dregs of D1 either. They have had plenty of 3 star recruits and transfers to work with the last four years. And yet in four seasons, Major has never produced an offense better than 190th in the country. With the resources at his disposal at Charlotte that’s under-achieving. Major is firmly on the hot-seat this season.
MAAC: The MAAC's ranking in the above table is a bit misleading because the average is really being dragged down by the bottom of the league. Marist and Niagara's programs are not in good shape right now. Niagara in particular was terrible last year and they lose all their best players. Canisius was good last year, but they had a ton of roster turnover, and they are going with a freshmen heavy roster this year.
But that shouldn't distract us from the fact that the top three teams in the league are very strong. I think Manhattan is probably getting too much hype with the addition of Cincinnati transfer and former Top 25 recruit Jermaine Lawrence. Manhattan loses two of the best guards in the league, and they will be hard to replace. But Manhattan will be in the mix. Siena returns everyone who played last year, and Jimmy Patsos team should be in the hunt for the league title. And don't overlook Iona. While they lose some key players, transfer Jeylani Dublin was an amazing per minute scorer at Longwood. He averaged 10 PPG while playing 20 minutes per game. And I need to start campaigning for Iona head coach Tim Cluess for consideration for a Top 11 job. The man is brilliant offensively. His offenses have ranked 27th, 17th, 19th, and 7th in the nation the last four years.
One final note on the MAAC: When my numbers are released, you will see that Rider gets a big boost defensively from the addition of 7 foot Utah St. transfer Matt Lopez. Lopez hasn't played major minutes at his previous two programs, but given Rider's rotation I think he is going to get meaningful playing time. And 7 footers often improve a team’s 2 PT defense. If I'm wrong about Lopez's playing time, the defensive prediction may be too optimistic. But there are other reasons to expect Rider's defense to be better. Rider's defense fell off a cliff last season, but they also were a little unlucky. Teams made threes and free throws at a very high rate against them. Weaknesses in those areas are unlikely to be repeated. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that last year's defensive collapse was a fluke.
Patriot League: The Patriot League is a mixed bag. While the league as a whole is very experienced, I’m not sure the teams at the top will be better. And a league like the Patriot league is judged based on its best teams, not its depth. Boston University lost several key players to graduation, and Maurice Watson’s decision to transfer to Creighton may have ruined their chances of repeating as conference champs. Big man Tony Wroblicky was probably American’s most important player, and while Nevada transfer Kevin Panzer might take some of his minutes, he seems like a pretty significant downgrade. Similarly, Holy Cross simply has no one on the roster who can replace big man Dave Dudzinski. Army, Lafayette, and Navy should be better in the middle and bottom of the league, but that might not help the league’s reputation.
Summit: The top teams in the league all lost multiple valuable players, which may make Denver the favorite. But even Denver loses all-around star Chris Udofia. On paper, the top of the conference takes a big step back.Oral Roberts is back after spending two years in the Southland. Oral Robert’s head coach Scott Sutton had the worst season of his career last year, and my model thinks it was a bit of a fluke.
CAA: I’ve never seen a circumstance where a league’s standings could almost completely flip upside-down, but that could happen in the CAA this year. Hofstra was the second to worst team in the CAA last season, but I actually think they might be the favorite this season. What you have to remember is that when Joe Mihalich came from Niagara, he brought two of his best players with him in Juan’ya Green and Ameen Tanksley. They had to sit out last year, but now they are eligible. Meanwhile, Hofstra returns three very good players in Jamall Robinson, Dion Nesmith, and Moussa Kone. The lack of depth on the roster is very disturbing, but as Towson showed when they added some key transfers a couple of years ago, sometimes all you need is two or three outstanding transfers, and a team’s outlook can change in a second.
Meanwhile, first place Delaware is a shell of the team that won the league last season. Losing the best four players is bad enough, but what you have to remember is that they were not only four very efficient players, they were all very aggressive too. Delaware’s four returning rotation players used 17%, 14%, 12%, and 9% of the possessions when on the floor last season. When you ask players like that to shoot 20% or more, their efficiency tends to plummet. Delaware is headed for one of the biggest falls in D1.
Towson may be headed for a big fall too given that they also lose their best players, but Towson is rolling the dice on another group of under-achieving major conference transfers. That worked two years ago, so perhaps they aren’t in for a big fall. But based on who they lost, a big collapse isn’t out of the question. Drexel also loses a ton of production, but at least they get Damion Lee back. Overall the conference standings may look nothing like they did last season.
OVC: On the flip side, I don’t expect much change in the OVC standings. When I listed the top 100 programs in the tempo free era, Murray St. and Belmont narrowly missed the cut. And there is no reason they won’t be the OVC favorites again.
Sun Belt: Besides Harvard, and Irvine, the other great small conference team this year is Georgia St. Did you know that even though Georgia finished third in the SEC, Georgia St. actually had a better margin-of-victory than Georgia last season? The Panthers lost by one point in OT to Elfrid Payton and Louisiana Lafayette in the Sun Belt tournament, but that should not take away from how great this team was. Ryan Harrow might have been a bust for Kentucky, but he wasn’t a bust for the Panthers. And along with the super-efficient RJ Hunter, who made 95 threes last year, and Curtis Washington, who shot 65% while becoming a dominant shot-blocker and rebounder, Georgia St. has enough key pieces back to be great again. The team does lose a couple of key starters, but with a quality bench, and the addition of former 4-star recruit and Louisville transfer Kevin Ware, the sky is the limit.
The only thing that may hold Georgia St. back is that the Sun Belt as a whole is going to be weaker this year. Western Kentucky has left for CUSA, Payton has left Louisiana Lafayette for the NBA, and as a whole the league does not return a lot of minutes. I fear Georgia St. may be criminally under-seeded come tournament time.
Big South: South Carolina transfer Brian Richardson will help High Point challenge a veteran Coastal Carolina squad for the league title.
WAC: New Mexico St. will take a big step back defensively with the loss of 7’5” Sim Bhullar in the middle. I know he received a lot of criticism for leaving early for the NBA draft, but he still earned a contract with the Sacramento Kings, and I certainly understand his comments that he will receive better training and medical care with a professional team. With Daniel Mullings, Tshilidzi Nephawe, and DK Eldridge back, no one should feel sorry for New Mexico St. They still have the most tradition, most talent, and given how few players are returning in the WAC this season, they are the overwhelming favorite.
I still don’t know how Utah Valley won the regular season title last year. At the start of conference play, they were 6-7, with the 240th best margin-of-victory in the nation. Yet somehow Utah Valley won more conference games than a very talented New Mexico St. team. According to Kenpom.com, Utah Valley was the second luckiest team in the nation (behind only Tulane). I don’t expect a repeat.
Big Sky: Jack Murphy has taken Northern Arizona from 342nd nationally, to 294th two years ago, to 262nd last year. And with almost everyone back, I see them reaching new heights. I think Weber St. and Montana’s dominance at the top of the conference standings may be about to end.
American East: Even though Vermont and Stony Brook lose a lot, I don’t expect their dominance at the top of the conference standings to end.
Atlantic-Sun: Brent Comer and Bernard Thompson are still around and Florida Gulf Coast adds five transfers with D1 experience. That core should be good enough for a league title.
Southern Conference: The top eight players are back on a Wofford team that made the NCAA tournament last year.
NEC: Robert Morris might still be the favorite, but they aren’t the overwhelming best team in the league like last season.
Southland: After two of the best seasons in team history, Stephen F. Austin loses quite a few key players and should take a step back. But with Thomas Walkup, Jacob Parker, and a few key transfers, they are still the favorite.
MEAC: I’m very excited about the group of transfers joining North Carolina Central this season.
SWAC: The APR ban hit some teams hard. Central Arkansas and Florida A&M rosters were completely decimated by the ban. But somehow Lewis Jackson held the Alabama St. roster together. And now his team will be in an intense battle with Texas Southern for the regular season title.