On Tuesday, February 27th, Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard hit a game-winning runner to help the Wildcats beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs at the buzzer. That shot capped one of the best prospect performances of the college basketball season, as Sheppard scored 32 points and had seven assists, five rebounds, two blocks and two steals in a difficult road environment. The 6-foot-3 guard also did it on 11-of-14 shooting from the floor, 4-of-7 shooting from deep and 6-of-6 shooting from the free throw line. As has been the case all year, Sheppard was lethal when he needed to be, and his efficiency was off the charts. Now, Sheppard is getting a brief moment as the center of attention in the 2024 NBA Draft class. But interestingly enough, he’s a little more polarizing than you’d expect.
There aren’t many people out there that will tell you Sheppard can’t play. It’d just be disingenuous to do so. However, people are a bit worried about his lack of size, especially considering he projects as more of an off-ball guard. There are also questions as to whether or not he has the burst and wiggle required to consistently create offense for himself at the next level. And truth be told, both of those are fair concerns. However, if Sheppard was 6-foot-5 and had the ability to blow by defenders regularly, he’d be considered a generational prospect. That’s not the case, and that’s completely fine. Nobody is perfect. With that in mind, it’s a little surprising that Sheppard hasn’t solidified himself as a top-five prospect in the class.
Nothing about Sheppard’s 12.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game jumps off the page. But the 19-year-old is doing it on 53.8 percent shooting from the floor, and he’s also hitting a ridiculous 51.7 percent of his threes. Sheppard is one of the most impressive shooters to come out of the draft in years — especially as a freshman. His 67.3 effective field goal percentage is also completely outrageous. There’s nobody in college basketball that is making more of their touches than Sheppard. That’s something that can’t be ignored, especially considering the history of Kentucky guards that have outproduced their draft positions.
Sheppard might not be a lead guard at the next level, but he’d be perfect next to a bigger primary playmaker. That would allow Sheppard to defend point guards, which he should be able to do at a high level. He’s an energetic on-ball defender and a very bright team defender. That’s part of the reason he is averaging 2.7 steals per game this season, and he has a Defensive Box Plus-Minus of 4.3. If Sheppard is able to guard point guards, he’ll get right up on them and make it hard for them to put the ball on the floor. Sheppard will also fight like hell to get his hand on the basketball, whether it’s with a strip or by jumping passing lanes. That said, Sheppard might not be able to defend up a couple of positions. But he’ll be a plus-level defender when stuck on players his own size — and maybe a bit bigger.
Offensively, playing next to another elite ball handler will allow Sheppard to focus on his shooting. Even if he’s a bit small for an off-ball guard, Sheppard’s quick release and ability to shoot off movement will allow him to be an elite shooter in the NBA. We really don’t see players with his type of accuracy from deep in college. But when we do, they hardly ever flame out at the next level. If anything, Sheppard will be playing with a lot more space than he does with Kentucky. To his credit, John Calipari did a lot over the summer to modernize his offense, and the result is a team that is sixth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. But Sheppard will still see better looks from deep in the pro game. That’s just the nature of the NBA right now.
Sheppard also has a little more burst than people think. He might lack sizzle as a ball handler, but he has a purposeful first step and understands how to take advantage of angles. He’s also a very smart decision maker, which is why he should be a very good secondary or tertiary offensive piece in the pros. The best teams in the NBA have multiple guys that can make plays with the ball in their hands. Sheppard can be one of them.
It just feels like the draft process can occasionally skew a little too negative. Sure, there might be things preventing Sheppard from being a franchise changer, but at what point do we ignore that and focus on the fact that this kid is just really freaking good at basketball? After all, no other freshman guard in the Sports Reference database has averaged at least 10.0 points per game with a Defensive BPM of 4.0 or higher while also shooting at least 45.0% from three and having an effective field goal percentage of 65.0% or higher. What he is doing for Kentucky is simply unprecedented, and the team’s on/off splits show that they’re a completely different group when he’s on the floor.
Last year, there were a few things to pick at with UCLA forward Jaime Jaquez Jr., but he was a jack of all trades that played with poise and consistently produced for the Bruins. Now, Jaquez looks like one of the steals of the 2023 NBA Draft, and he has quickly become a big part of the Miami Heat’s core. Sheppard isn’t anything like Jaquez stylistically, but the negativity feels somewhat similar. Looking back, there weren’t many reasons to think Jaquez’s game wouldn’t translate. And if people continue to nitpick Sheppard’s game, there’s a chance we’ll be saying the same things about him.
Sheppard just feels like a player with the floor of an insanely high-level role player. In a draft class with a lot of question marks, that should be enough to get him taken early. However, if Sheppard lands in the right spot, he has the potential to be much, much more. He’s the exact type of player that can thrive next to players like Cade Cunningham or Amen Thompson. If he does end up in the right situation, look out.