Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory

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The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:52 am

Zion Williamson doesn’t dunk anymore. Okay, that’s not true: he has attempted 65 dunks this season, or roughly one per game. But he attempted none against the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night, despite all of his field goals coming from within the paint—and most were within the restricted area. He scored 34 points, and his New Orleans Pelicans won 112-104. And while there was something incredible about each of his buckets, there’s no mistaking it: Williamson is now a layup artist, getting on the scoreboard in decidedly less pyrotechnic ways than before.


Many bodacious young dunkers go this way. Their knees and feet, destroyed by crunchy post-slam landings, demand it. The drunken, post-biological hype that greets the shocking beginnings of their careers reduces into a quieter appreciation, shared mostly between the fans of said player’s home team and those studious enough to follow the second-act star into their less aesthetically gobsmacking era. Zion’s second chance came early, though: he’s still just 23, playing through the first year of his first big contract, which is full of performance-related financial stipulations put in place because of how turbulent the first four years of his career were.


At this still pretty green age, Williamson has already changed a lot, and has the posture and grimace of a man more than a decade into the NBA—he has missed over 200 games due to injury, been criticized for his body and diet, and had some gnarly formative romantic episodes exposed at a level that no one would like. But the discourse about him has been more muted, lately. He is healthier, having played 55 out of 66 possible games, as he and the Pelicans seem to have finally figured out a plan for ramping him up as the season goes along; his bouncy athleticism is now cresting, his bursts to the rim more unguardable with every week.


He’s looking trimmer, too, and perhaps most important of all: those layups. They are the work of a weathered craftsman, more Andre Miller than Ja Morant. His finishing package is no longer viral fodder, unless the internet is about to be composed exclusively of 42-year-old men who value subtle grace and finesse more than the loud, mean, explosive stuff Zion used to be known for. Now, he uses just as much of his powers as he needs to. This is partly because he has a better understanding of the advantages he gets from his feathery touch; his ability to loft the ball home from strange, kinetic bodily angles better than anyone except maybe Nikola Jokic.


But he now also has a dad-dominating-on-the-driveway literacy with angles. Zion can take three dribbles and use his shoulders to create a one-man hallway for himself, yes. But he can also jump into a defender’s realm only a little bit, but still stay flying exactly long enough to release the ball after their contesting arms have descended a smidge. He can switch shooting hands as he attacks. He can go Moses Malone mode, and out-muscle a crowd for a rebound and putback. He can recognize defenses over-exerting on Brandon Ingram or CJ McCollum, and flash into the lane, off-ball, for a quick pass and finish. He can spin and lean and score as he’s almost falling. If all else fails, he can forego the big man battlefield by stopping short and delivering a high-arc teardrop shot over everything. These are all ways of being a layup guy, and Zion is the most formidable of those alive right now. He is Mister Layup.


Surround Williamson with playmakers like Ingram and McCollum, three-and-D wings like Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones, a huge skilled center in Jonas Valanciunas, and perpetual rascals like Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., and Naji “The Knife” Marshall and you’ve got quite the constellation of talent around the ultra-dense basketball planet that is Zion. The Pelicans would be clear underdogs against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, but for any other Western Conference playoff opponent they may field, fear of the bird is an appropriate feeling.


Pelicans fans can’t quite believe in what’s happening yet, no matter how obvious their team’s ascendance is starting to look. It has been a star-crossed decade and a half for this post-Hornets franchise, with only one playoff series win coming out of the bayou. And in the Williamson/Ingram years, especially, injuries seem to occur with a timing and pattern that suggests God doesn’t want them to succeed. But usually, that’s already happened to them by mid-March. Thriving and unencumbered by curses, with 16 games left, the Pelicans are in territory both unfamiliar and promising. 

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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#2 » by puja21 » Mon Mar 18, 2024 10:00 pm

Nothing in my reply to "Zion is Still Here" piece has markedly changed since Dec 20th

Whether dunking or "Mister Layup," his numbers are worse when comparing his entire career up to this season:

Zion is shooting 17% fewer shots at the rim.

Zion moved those shots farther out, increasing the number of his 3 to 16 foot attempts, but also shooting a worse percentage now in that range (worse than he was from 3-16 but when taking fewer attempts).

Rebounding rate way down (26% offensive, 16% total)

VORP, BMP, and PER all down significantly

TS% down

FT Rate down 15%

Hard to get excited about a guy who was as dominant as him already "playing like a dad in the driveway" at 23.

This is a salvage project more than a coming of age.
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#3 » by Cassius » Thu Mar 21, 2024 3:51 am

puja21 wrote:Nothing in my reply to "Zion is Still Here" piece has markedly changed since Dec 20th

Whether dunking or "Mister Layup," his numbers are worse when comparing his entire career up to this season:

Zion is shooting 17% fewer shots at the rim.

Zion moved those shots farther out, increasing the number of his 3 to 16 foot attempts, but also shooting a worse percentage now in that range (worse than he was from 3-16 but when taking fewer attempts).

Rebounding rate way down (26% offensive, 16% total)

VORP, BMP, and PER all down significantly

TS% down

FT Rate down 15%

Hard to get excited about a guy who was as dominant as him already "playing like a dad in the driveway" at 23.

This is a salvage project more than a coming of age.


On the one hand, if he can't control his diet to a level that would reduce the inflammation enough to protect his body from injuries, then maybe this is the only way to get Zion to perform for 70 games a year as a top 20 player instead of at his potential as a top 5 guy.

On the other hand, how is the author not going to cite the "Fred Van Vleet Effect" of becoming a father? For decades, dudes have turned their careers around one way or another as a result of bringing a child into the world.
I_Like_Dirt wrote:The whole comparison to Kevin McHale is ridiculously close, imo... And that's without more hilarious aspects of the comparison, e.g. if Wally Sczerbiak were 7 feet tall with the slower reflexes that came with the additional height, he'd be Bargnani.
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#4 » by beads » Thu Mar 21, 2024 4:03 pm

puja21 wrote:Nothing in my reply to "Zion is Still Here" piece has markedly changed since Dec 20th

Whether dunking or "Mister Layup," his numbers are worse when comparing his entire career up to this season:

Zion is shooting 17% fewer shots at the rim.

Zion moved those shots farther out, increasing the number of his 3 to 16 foot attempts, but also shooting a worse percentage now in that range (worse than he was from 3-16 but when taking fewer attempts).

Rebounding rate way down (26% offensive, 16% total)

VORP, BMP, and PER all down significantly

TS% down

FT Rate down 15%

Hard to get excited about a guy who was as dominant as him already "playing like a dad in the driveway" at 23.

This is a salvage project more than a coming of age.


You're ignoring that he's averaging the most assists he ever has and has the best AST/TO ratio of his career by far. He is basically averaging one less rebound per game than he has over his career so far, which isn't even close to a sign of dramatic decline. He currently has the 2nd best VORP of his career and is PER is 23.5 which is 9th best in the entire NBA. 2nd best STL% of his career and best BLK% of his career. 2nd best OWS of his career and best DWS of his career. TS% is well within normal variance - a difference of 0.03% is not some major sign of decline.

And of course, the most obvious thing that you're ignoring is that the Pelicans are having the best season they've had since he's been on the team and he's been the obvious best player.
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#5 » by puja21 » Fri Mar 22, 2024 1:21 pm

beads wrote:[He is basically averaging one less rebound per game than he has over his career so far, which isn't even close to a sign of dramatic decline.


if you don't think zion's lack of rebounding is a problem, we'll have to agree to disagree.

I watched the Pels lose to Dallas this year -- in a game Luka didn't even play -- where Zion had ONE rebound in 32 mins.

there's no explanation for that level of apathy
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#6 » by puja21 » Fri Mar 22, 2024 1:25 pm

beads wrote:TS% is well within normal variance - a difference of 0.03% is not some major sign of decline


3% is not the same as 0.03%

First three seasons Zion's TS% 64.3% -- when I responded to the first article (Christmas) Zion was at 61.1% TS

(he's come up to 61.9% since)

For context, consider the difference between a 38% and 35% 3P shooter

This is a level of significance that the NBA cares about.
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#7 » by beads » Fri Mar 22, 2024 2:42 pm

puja21 wrote:
beads wrote:TS% is well within normal variance - a difference of 0.03% is not some major sign of decline


3% is not the same as 0.03%

First three seasons Zion's TS% 64.3% -- when I responded to the first article (Christmas) Zion was at 61.1% TS

(he's come up to 61.9% since)

For context, consider the difference between a 38% and 35% 3P shooter

This is a level of significance that the NBA cares about.


You're right, I was looking at his eFG%. Still, his TS% hasn't been poor this season by any stretch of the imagination. He's top 40 in the NBA and in front of Curry, Doncic, Booker, etc. He has the 2nd best FT% of his career as well. Given that a 35% 3P shooter is generally considered average to poor and a 38% 3P shooter is considered above average, the better comparison for Zion's TS% would be the difference between a 41% 3P shooter and a 44% 3P shooter. Both are above average, like Zion's TS%.

Rebounding is the area where Zion can improve the most, but he's still second on his team in RPG and averaging 6 a game. We can trade anecdotal examples about specific games all day, but that's what averages are for - he had a game this month with 12 rebounds, so does that mean his effort level is now through the roof?
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Re: The Pelicans Are In Unfamiliar, Promising Territory 

Post#8 » by puja21 » Sat Mar 23, 2024 12:21 am

beads wrote:Still, his TS% hasn't been poor this season by any stretch of the imagination. He's top 40 in the NBA and in front of Curry, Doncic, Booker, etc. He has the 2nd best FT% of his career as well. Given that a 35% 3P shooter is generally considered average to poor and a 38% 3P shooter is considered above average, the better comparison for Zion's TS% would be the difference between a 41% 3P shooter and a 44% 3P shooter. Both are above average, like Zion's TS%.


this is true, except it's what made Zion special

He's not an off the dribble creator

a stopper

a rebounder

or a spot up shooter

"above average" isn't good enough in this one area for zion (based on his NBA skillset/production shown so far).

(That's not to say he "can't" do the other things at an elite-level. he just hasn't yet)

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