Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
Tier 2: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady
Tier 3: Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson
Tier 4: Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Eli Manning
Tier 5: Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Michael Vick
Tier 6: Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman
Tier 7: Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis
As you can see, we have terrific depth at quarterback this year. Unless you play in a league that starts two QBs, there is no urgency to select a QB early. What should be no surprise, Rodgers and Brees comprise the top tier, with Manning (the elder), Newton and Brady rounding up tier-two. Out of tier-three, Ryan is the safest bet, with the two mobile NFC West QBs also strong options as a starting fantasy QB. Demonstrating just how deep the QB position is this year, the tier-four group also sports solid starting options, and I find Stafford and Manning (the younger) to be a bit underrated based on current ADP. Once you venture into tier-five and beyond, you’re into backup QBs, although not necessarily disastrous if you need to start one of these guys.
So what’s the strategy here for QBs? My recommendation would be to wait before selecting your first QB. Because of the RB situation this season (10 or so top options, followed by question marks in the next group) and the outstanding QB depth, I recommend drafting a stud RB with your first pick. If you want Rodgers or Brees, that’s fine, but wait until Round 2. Otherwise, you can wait to draft a QB sometime in Rounds 4 through 6, depending on how the draft board looks when your selection is up. Just to demonstrate the depth here, Romo and Eli Manning as the back end of tier-four are the 12th and 13th QBs based on rank. In 12-team leagues, you can be the last to draft a QB and still get one of these two (or someone equivalent).
Another strategy along those lines which I endorse is to wait on QB and grab a tier-four guy, and follow that up by drafting another QB with your next few picks (giving you a solid 1-2 punch). This would give you the opportunity to play the matchups each week with two good QBs in hand. But the takeaway here is that we have a deep QB pool, so draft accordingly. Let’s get the QB discussion going – hit me up via email or twitter and let me know your thoughts.
Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM. He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.
