I get asked loads of questions about the draft, be it email (jeff.risdon@realgm.com), Twitter (@JeffRisdon), or in the RealGM “Ask Jeff Risdon a question” thread on the NFL Draft message board. Here are some of the more interesting ones from the past couple of weeks. Some are paraphrased or modified slightly for clarity.
From gswhoops: With Jarvis Jones face-planting his pro day, how far will he fall?
There are minimum athletic benchmarks for positions that the vast majority of NFL teams hold, even if they don’t like to admit it. Jones failed to meet several of those. It’s not just his 4.9+ 40 time, which is absurdly slow for an outside linebacker. His vertical leap and broad jump numbers are also decidedly below the benchmarks for explosion attributes. To put it in perspective, I’m 40, white, and have chronic toe issues and I have a better vertical and broad jump than the 24-year old Jones, who has been training for these drills for months.
It wouldn’t be so damning if Jones could play DE, but at 245 he’s too small and he’s still slower and less explosive than almost every DE in this draft as well. Obviously he plays faster than he performs in workouts, but there is an awful lot of ugly tape of Jones at Georgia. Just because of his prominent production I suspect Jones will remain in the first round, but not in the top 20. And I’ll finish on Jones with this thought: at least Aaron Maybin was fast.
From Roger Murdock: Say Geno Smith is on the board at 6. What are the chances Buffalo makes a move to get him, and what would it take?
First, I will be absolutely shocked if Geno is still available at the six spot. I am 100% convinced he will be drafted in the 2-4 spots, though I can’t tell you which. But if Smith is there at six, Buffalo would need to give up the eight pick plus their third round pick to move up. If they truly covet Smith, and I’m not sold that they do yet, they figure to need to offer the eight pick, their third round pick this year, and their first round pick next year to Jacksonville at the two spot. The Jaguars would definitely answer that phone call.
From @MotorCityManiac: Tavon Austin to the Lions at the #5 pick?
I doubt it but it’s not as far-fetched as it might appear on the surface. I believe it was more in play before Jeff Backus retired, leaving another big hole with very talented prospects at that particular spot. Now if the Lions get a taker and are able to trade back a handful of spots selecting Austin would not surprise me. I wouldn’t do it personally, but it wouldn’t make me angry either. Austin will be gone no later than 11th overall.
From Chris in St. Joes: With Urlacher now gone the Bears have to get a linebacker at #20, right?
Chicago certainly has to address their linebacking issues early, but not necessarily in the first round. DJ Williams is an effective bandage for a year, and James Anderson is probably an upgrade over Nick Roach as long as they don’t ask him to blitz. And there is the potential for Shea McClellin to play strongside backer too.
So I wouldn’t reach if there is a higher rated option at other spots of need like offensive line, defensive end, or perhaps cornerback. I like some middle round LBs quite a bit as value picks as well, players like Devonte Holloman from South Carolina, Trevardo Williams from UConn, AJ Klein from Iowa State, and Kiko Alonso from Oregon. Having said all that, Arthur Brown from Kansas State makes a lot of sense at No. 20.
From kdawg: Is there anyone in this draft who can actually be a NFL caliber starting center? It seems like the top centers (Barrett Jones and Travis Frederick) are considered guards. That is very true; neither Jones nor Frederick should be centers in the NFL unless out of desperation. Both are much better guard prospects, as is North Carolina’s Jonathan Cooper, who indicated a willingness to move at the Combine. Cooper would be the best of the three as a center if forced to choose and he is a first round talent at either spot. Frederick likely sits in the 50-75 overall range, while Jones looks like a fourth or fifth rounder in part due to an injury that is likely to cut deep into his rookie campaign.
As far as players who were actual full-time centers in college, Brian Schwenke from Cal is probably the best and he should not be taken before the fifth round. I like Patrick Lewis from Texas A&M but he must disprove the “soft” tag that has often dogged him. Mario Benavides from Louisville is technically proficient but sorely lacks strength and bulk. Suffice to say it is a very bad draft to need a center, though I suspect a late round or even undrafted surprise will emerge. Two candidates: Eric Kush from California PA and Graham Pocic from Illinois.
From @CBauerNFLDraft: What do you think of DJ Swearinger?
The South Carolina safety is a frustrating evaluation. There are games (Arkansas and Michigan) where Swearinger looks like the best safety in this draft, combining range, intensity, smarts, and power to make plays big and small. Then there are games (Florida and Clemson) where Swearinger is a jumble of bad angles, poor technique, and lousy decisions. I struggle with players who are so wildly up and down in not just their performances but in their technique. A lot is going to depend on his chemistry with his teammate and coaches. I think he is a late second round prospect and the good will outweigh the bad at the next level, but will never be a star.
From @thegrobber: What do you see Philly doing at #4? Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Dee Milliner, Eric Fisher?
It’s my somewhat informed opinion that the most likely pick will be one of two names not listed here, Geno Smith or Dion Jordan, although the Connor Barwin signing tempers the Jordan thoughts. Of the names you provided, I believe the most likely pick is Fisher. Athletic linemen were the bedrock of Chip Kelly’s offenses at Oregon and Fisher is ready to step right in and thrive at either tackle spot. But if Geno Smith is still available…
From Da Schwab: What is Minnesota going to do with those two first round picks? Are they going to package and move up?
The Vikings still need another wideout even after signing Greg Jennings. As much as they have invested in poring over the wideouts in this draft, I have a hard time seeing them not replacing Harvin directly with one of the two picks. They must give Christian Ponder no excuses; it is his third season and they must ascertain if he is truly their franchise QB or if he needs replacing, and arming him with strong receiving options is an imperative. From what I’ve gathered, GM Rick Speilman feels this way.
I don’t believe they have much interest in parting with the extra pick. Those two picks sit in the range where the most coveted value is in this draft. Having a chance to make as many picks as possible in this range, especially at the top of it, is not something that Speilman will take lightly or want to squander. Look for a wideout and a defensive front seven talent from the two picks.
From Guy in Stacey Augmon jersey at the gym who fouls too much in pick-up basketball games: Please tell me all this EJ Manuel in the first round talk is BS!
Personally I think it’s ridiculous, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen. He might not even make it to the Texans pick at No. 27, and I’m not sure Houston GM Rick Smith would pass on him there. I will not deny Manuel’s physical tools or his intelligence that come across in talking to him, but I liked his FSU predecessor Christian Ponder more and no one has ever accused me of being a Ponder fan.