Prediction: In a decade the CBA will be on par with Spain

[jt142]

What ridiculous comparisons. When will the United States, with 250 million inhabitants, surpass Spain, with 45 million, in soccer?

Yeah, but here's the BIG difference: Soccer will never be the most popular sport in America, but basketball could certainly become, if it's not already, the most popular sport in China. Still, I don't see it happening any time soon, so don't worry about it.

[MrSparkle]

Spanish league got better by bringing in a lot of international talent. More money involved, so they were able to attract Argentine, Italian, and Eastern European stars. China is hardly going to become a superpower basketball league with a purely domestic talent pool, when USA and Europe are already eons beyond.

[jt142]

Spanish league got better by bringing in a lot of international talent. More money involved, so they were able to attract Argentine, Italian, and Eastern European stars. China is hardly going to become a superpower basketball league with a purely domestic talent pool, when USA and Europe are already eons beyond.

They are importing some sub-par foreign players, most from America. Problem is, it seems like the CBA is trying to copy the NBA style game when its obvious that the Chinese just don't have the athleticism and creativity to do so. The Europeans, while not as athletic as the American players, focus more on teamwork and fundamental skill. Maybe China should do the same.

[jman3134]

People are making very valid points about Spain's history and love of the sport. The thing they don't have is a billion people moving from poverty to the middle class. Also in most of the world the athlete will choose soccer first. Even in the USA many kids would rather play football or baseball (even if it isn't their favorite sport- they have longer more lucrative careers with fewer injuries). If you have a group of people that large and nearly all the top athletes would like to play you are looking at an unparalleled situation.

But how exactly does a billion people moving above the poverty line result in an influx in basketball talent? I mean you can give greater training I would guess, but isn't that provided by the government already? Also, basketball is a low budget sport.

[Tyler_Durden76]

There is a lot of China bashing out there, of course because there is

a. Jelousy
b. Racism
c. anti-communist rhetoric.

The propaganda off western media is so pervasive it is difficult not to be convinced by the lies. I bet jt42 has never been to china so has no knowledge of what he is talking about.

--------------------

As for BBall. I would say China in 10-20 years time has a good chance of having a league comparable to europe just as the initial poster say. That is a conservative estimate, that is also based if the political landscape aka US empire still exist as the top dog in the next 20 years (which I believe very unlikely so).

But if you consider the politics and economic problems the US is facing, I can also make a statement that the US basketball (not considering the nation itself which I doubt will still exist) is all down hill from here. With the pending World War (US naval blockade of Iran should start soon and the first wave of war against Russia already in progress, Russia has SS21 Nuclear missiles already on Ossetia ready to launch if US intervenes) and the probable collapse of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, GM and the US dollar in the few months to come (I am telling you now, Russia and China will sink the dollar as retribution for US interferance on their affairs, Iran will be the last straw), I doubt the likelihood of the US ever fielding any sports team in the next 20 years to come after the nuclear clouds clear up in this soon to be chaotic land divided all into small warring nations.

[aroba]

Hey Durdyn
- Most of countries have a lot of respect to China and is huge milennary culture.
-Many. many families in Spain that can't have children are going to China to adopt chinese orphans because we feel close to that greatness and we think asian people are beautiful.
- Noone is going to sink the dollar because all economies are connected. Money doesn't really exist you know, it's just a piece of paper that means a value....with no backup in gold nowadays as it used to be.
- China can't depend only on it's own resources since you have so many population. You need to import.
- A lot of spanish and chinese enterprises are making business between each others. Spain is nº1 country in the world on ecologic energy resources and just made deals with China to improve your natural environment.
- China will surely have a great league in following years, but what makes spanish ACB league (as well as other european leagues like greek and Italian) so competitive is 2 things: Tradition and international competition (clubs).

China doesn't have enough competition inside and Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, India, etc doesn't play much bbal either.

Besides we have a basketball tradition of almost a century. Great names, great clubs and great competition and features happened for decades. Sabonis, Petrovic, Oscar Schmidt, Gasol... Great histories at European cup (what is Euroleague nowadays), rivalries that last half a century...You'll get that with time but not soon.

- Comunism is just another old idea from the beggining of 20th century that didn't work. We have to find something else....together.

[DelaneyRudd]

People are making very valid points about Spain's history and love of the sport. The thing they don't have is a billion people moving from poverty to the middle class. Also in most of the world the athlete will choose soccer first. Even in the USA many kids would rather play football or baseball (even if it isn't their favorite sport- they have longer more lucrative careers with fewer injuries). If you have a group of people that large and nearly all the top athletes would like to play you are looking at an unparalleled situation.

But how exactly does a billion people moving above the poverty line result in an influx in basketball talent? I mean you can give greater training I would guess, but isn't that provided by the government already? Also, basketball is a low budget sport.

Money= resources. Youth leagues will flourish, health will improve athletic ability. Being able to devote yourself to sport takes resources. There is a myth that the average NBA player comes from the poor inner-city. The average NBA player comes from a middle class background. There are of several course exceptions, but the exceptions end up with top notch coaching and get scholarships to exclusive prep-high schools. The idea some people here have floated saying Chinese people aren't athletic or have an innate ability for basketball IQ is ridiculous.

[salaner]

Let's see China surpass Lithuania (two million people) in basketball first, then let's talk about Spain or anyone else...

[salaner]

And, by the way, Lithuania just defeated Russia. Two million people vs. 141 million people. Food for the population theoreticians...

[Ryoga Hibiki]

It's CBA vs ACB or Spain NT vs China NT?

Btw, 10 years is like half a generation, a lot of things can change.
Comparing the leagues is easy, it's all about money. Is the CBA going to pay more than the ACB?
It depends on how much that league is going to be popular in their own country (Chinese people look more interested to the NBA than to their domestic league, while in Spain there's a stronger tradition) and how much th Chinese economy is going to keep growing at this rate.
If you're comparing NTs, you first have to consider what are the factors that determine the level of the sport in each country: it's a combination of genetics, quality of training, passion for the sport AND population.
Lithuania and Slovenia have average genetics, a few millions in population but gigantic passion and great training.
France have good genetics, 50 millions in population, solid training but little passion, and are roughly at the same level.
Italy have average genetics, 60 millions in population, average training, average passion and so we're... average!
Russia have average genetics, 140 millions in population, above average training, average passion.
Spain have average genetics, 40 millions in population, very good training and and good passion, so they're above them all.
China have average genetics, 1.3 billion in population but so far little passion and horrible training. What's going to happen if really they're becoming basketball maniacs and the government is going to heavily invest in training programs bringing in valuable coaches from all over the world? Yao won't have the luck to play with decent teammates, but the passion he created will influence bball in China for generations!

A few comments: I put genetics in but I was really simplistic about it, I have no clue who actually have the better genetics, I just wanted to say it's an important factor. Then, this is all about probability, you can still be lucky and come out with a Dirk Nowitzki or a Steve Nash defying the odds.

[salaner]

I hope China develops any sort of a credible professional league in ANY sport, from soccer to baseball to team handball. Then we'll be able to ascertain what their chances of sustaining a pro basketball league with any credibility really are. They are great at developing state-sponsored athletes and national teams aimed at Olympics and world championships. But a pro league based on individual, privately owned clubs is an entirely different story, and they have zilch tradition in that field, whereas Europe and the US have more than half a century's experience in basketball (and a century in soccer.)

[Apollo64]

People are making very valid points about Spain's history and love of the sport. The thing they don't have is a billion people moving from poverty to the middle class. Also in most of the world the athlete will choose soccer first. Even in the USA many kids would rather play football or baseball (even if it isn't their favorite sport- they have longer more lucrative careers with fewer injuries). If you have a group of people that large and nearly all the top athletes would like to play you are looking at an unparalleled situation.

But, you're not taking into consideration other aspects of the game that can't be taught (i.e athleticism, creativity, mental toughness, and competitiveness). While I truly believe that the creativity and court vision are innate qualities, they can also be developed over a long period of time, depending on the social environment. There's a lot more to producing a basketball superpower than money and population. China can certainly find plenty of 7 footers out of 1.3 billion people. However, as we all know, height isn't everything. Whether or not any of them will be as good as Yao depends on a lot of other factors, which I've mentioned in previous posts. These 7 footers could just as well be the next Peter Ramos, Shawn Bradley, Menke Bateer, or worse.

China will eventually catch up to European countries like Spain, but I think it's going to take a lot more time than you're predicting.

Pretty much a racist statement. So, you are saying that the Chinese as a nation are too dumb and soft to play competitive basketball?

[jt142]

People are making very valid points about Spain's history and love of the sport. The thing they don't have is a billion people moving from poverty to the middle class. Also in most of the world the athlete will choose soccer first. Even in the USA many kids would rather play football or baseball (even if it isn't their favorite sport- they have longer more lucrative careers with fewer injuries). If you have a group of people that large and nearly all the top athletes would like to play you are looking at an unparalleled situation.

But, you're not taking into consideration other aspects of the game that can't be taught (i.e athleticism, creativity, mental toughness, and competitiveness). While I truly believe that the creativity and court vision are innate qualities, they can also be developed over a long period of time, depending on the social environment. There's a lot more to producing a basketball superpower than money and population. China can certainly find plenty of 7 footers out of 1.3 billion people. However, as we all know, height isn't everything. Whether or not any of them will be as good as Yao depends on a lot of other factors, which I've mentioned in previous posts. These 7 footers could just as well be the next Peter Ramos, Shawn Bradley, Menke Bateer, or worse.

China will eventually catch up to European countries like Spain, but I think it's going to take a lot more time than you're predicting.

Pretty much a racist statement. So, you are saying that the Chinese as a nation are too dumb and soft to play competitive basketball?

No, I didn't say they're dumb. You're putting words in my mouth. Either that, or your just angry because my home country (USA) kicked Greece's butt and is once again dominating the international bball scene.

Back to the topic at hand: I said they lack creativity, mental toughness, and physical attributes that are either innate or developed by the environment you grow up in. In addition, China still lacks the infrastructure, funding, and training system to develop top quality players. It's just not there. They will continue to develop average CBA players until the system of developing and training players is overhauled. Spain has a proper training and developmental system in place which has worked wonders over the years, the Chinese don't. They're still using old Soviet style tactics in order to find the best possible talent for certain sports, including basketball. While this system works when trying to develop gymnasts and divers, it has proven to be unsuccessful in developing top-quality basketball and soccer players. The players that are produced by the Soviet style system are usually extremely mechanical and lack creativity (i.e Yi). The teenagers who might have the proper psychological attributes to be great basketball players might not even get past the measuring stage of the Chinese basketball system.

The Chinese NT has been given a gift of having one of the best centers in the world on their team and they still can't finish any higher than 8th place, mostly because of their atrocious guard play. A better topic would be: Will China ever develop a half-way decent guard? Once Yao retires after the Olympics, their NT will be in serious trouble.

[BarbaGrizz]

So you agree that in 20 years the CBA will be on par with the NBA?

No way...

It´s the equal to say that the Chinese soccer league will someday be on par with any major euro league...never gonna happen!

[aroba]

@Ryoga Hibiki, I don't agree with the "genetics" theory. Pretty racist if you let me say it.

Why does France have overall better genetics for Basketball than countries like Lithuania, Russia or Spain?. Do you mean that black people are superior "genetically" for this sport? Just taking physique on consideration or talent overall?

Lithuanian people for instance, not only have the size but also the power and the talent to play this sport. Being black doesn't mean you're going to be taller, faster and stronger but most of all, it doesn't mean your going to be more talented for bball.

Besides, england also have an important black community and you didn't even mention it. They supposedly could be the next powerhouse because of his latent "genetic potential" producing the likes of Ben Gordon or Luol Deng. Also African countries should have world leader leagues if they start to play basketball, no matter how much money they have to invest.

NO
Proof is if your theory doesn't explain miracles like this: NOONE, I repeat NOONE have better "genetics" for basketball than balcanic people (all ex- yugoslavian countries: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro...). HANDS DOWN. They just produced so many talent for so many years having, tall talented players, great shooter and competitors. The best country bball factory in the world taking total population on account.
....but have an average league ( by european standards).

Then the main concern is not genetics nor total population, but competition itself. CBA needs to be competitive in order to be on par with ACB, no matter how many chinese people play the game.

[TheCardinal20]

If the Chinese government wants a dominant basketball program, and follows through on the plans to basically take the children from the cradle, it's simply a matter of time before they pass Spain, and pretty much any other country much smaller than their own. Spain will always have a solid team due to the status of basketball in the country, but quite simply, the resources the Chinese have at their disposal dwarf the Spanish side...again, it's simply a matter of time/commitment...

[TheCardinal20]

What ridiculous comparisons. When will the United States, with 250 million inhabitants, surpass Spain, with 45 million, in soccer?

Quite simply, soccer is a minor sport in the US, and the government doesn't plan on taking the 5 year olds from their parents and giving them a "soccer education". If they planned on doing this, it would simply be a matter of time before the US side started dominating international play.

[jt142]

^^

I think your opinion about American soccer is correct; however, I disagree with you concerning China's future basketball prospects.

The fact of the matter is, China's still a developing country and the majority of their population is still poor and weak (700 million + peasants living on less than $3/day). What system does the Chinese government have in place to make sure that prospective players from the hinterlands succeed? Where's the infrastructure? I'm sure the Chinese government is more worried about improving the peasants' living standards than producing bball players. Also, these 700 million + Chinese peasants are still poor and lack the diet of people from the coastal cities. In addition, the current Chinese bball developmental system has consistently failed to produce an NBA quality guard (not scrubs like Chen Jianghua and Sun Yue) for over a decade. I don't see the proper sports authorities doing anything about this. They seem too content with winning medals in diving, gymnastics, ping pong, and badminton to care. The system of finding and training prospective athletes at a young age based on measurements and tests, which the Chinese have adopted, has produced a few great NBA players in the past (Divac, Kukoc, Sabonis, Petrovic, and Marciulionis); however, it has failed to produce any superstars.

Yes, China has a huge population, but that alone doesn't make it inevitable that they'll eventually become a basketball superpower. Moreover, they lack the innate qualities and social environment which make American players so great. China's best bet is observe countries with great developmental programs (Spain, Argentina, Lithuania, etc.) and study how they train their players. This might allow them to make some progress in a short period of time. Nobody, and I mean nobody, can replicate what American players like Wade, Lebron, and Kobe do on the court, unless you come from a similar background. In other words, unless you're tall, athletic, and "look the part," you need to focus on fundamentals and teamwork in order to gain an advantage over American players. There's no denying this. Players like Bird, Stockton, Mullin, Price, Nowitzki, etc. are rare, but they prove that players who possess solid fundamental skills, high bball IQs, and determination can compete and beat players with superior athleticism and talent. That should give China some hope. What's great about America is that we're producing players who possess all of these traits (i.e. Jordan, Lebron, Wade, and Kobe).

[redred9]

considering that full strength Chinese teams still get regularly beaten by Australian CLUB teams (nevermind the national team) id say they still have a LONG, long, way to go yet before they can even beat a top Spanish ACB club without a fluke. They will continue to win Asia, but thats not exactly saying much yet.

I think it will take longer than ten years. Even superstar Yi looks like a bit of a bust so far, and it is a matter of real lack of fundamentals not physical attributes (he cant catch, lacks strength, lacks bball iq etc).

[DelaneyRudd]

Wait so pro-Aussie teams beat the Chinese national team?