DRAFT LOTTERY 24

[yosemiteben]

I will give him credit, shooting 50/50/80 is crazy.

People don't want to draft a short (if 6'3 is short for a 1 these days lol) white guy, even if he might be John Stockton with better shooting but not quite as good a passer.

Derrick White seems like a median Sheppard outcome to me.

There is no world where Sheppard becomes a Derrick White level defender though, and that’s the problem. He might shoot better and be more of a threat offensively, but the defense is a full two or three steps down from White.

He has zero chance of becoming of the best shot blocking guards ever, perennial all-defensive candidate, and arguably the Celtics secondary rim protector. The defensive value he provides is massive.

What is this based on? As a freshman Reed averaged 2.5 stl and almost a block a game. He seems to have elite defensive awareness.

[Chapelchilla]

I don't think Reed will be available at 6. His skills are just too valuable to let slip, Castle and Holland may be pretty good, but they also might be just a guy. MKGx2.
After the Frenchies, I would probably prefer Clingan, Topic, Bruzelis, Dillingham or Sheppard. But, the predraft process has not really started and I trust Kupchak to help steer the noobs towards making a good pick once they have eye balled everybody.

[EmpireFalls]

People don't want to draft a short (if 6'3 is short for a 1 these days lol) white guy, even if he might be John Stockton with better shooting but not quite as good a passer.

Derrick White seems like a median Sheppard outcome to me.

There is no world where Sheppard becomes a Derrick White level defender though, and that’s the problem. He might shoot better and be more of a threat offensively, but the defense is a full two or three steps down from White.

He has zero chance of becoming of the best shot blocking guards ever, perennial all-defensive candidate, and arguably the Celtics secondary rim protector. The defensive value he provides is massive.

What is this based on? As a freshman Reed averaged 2.5 stl and almost a block a game. He seems to have elite defensive awareness.

Let’s have this conversation after the combine. That will illuminate quite a bit about these prospects.

[Rainwater]

Castle should be the pick for you guys, makes the most sense.

[Trey24]

LaMelo/Micic
Castle/Mann/NSJ
Miller/Martin
Miles/Grant
Mark/Valanciunas

Lineup cannot survive with two non-shooters. Castle won't be a rotation player next year anywhere until he can shoot. He's a Davion Mitchell level 15 min off the bench right now

I think Mann would start, as added above.

Charlotte is the perfect destination for Castle to expand his range between 2 elite spacers in LaMelo & Miller. Miles also shot 40% from 3 in JB's system one season.

Castle needs our shooting and we need his perimeter defense and playmaking (secondary).

Mann is the perfect bridge to Castle. I want to keep Mann longterm as a hedge and as PG2 when Micic is off the books.

It wouldn't surprise me if Cody Martin would start

If Castle can't shoot 3s then it will severely limit the player he can be.

26% or so last year from College 3 is a concerning # but I really haven't watched him that much.

[JustBuzzin]

Castle should be the pick for you guys, makes the most sense.

Agreed.

People concerned with his shooting, but he actually fits well with Melo/Miller because of his cutting ability. He's going to be a secondary playmaker for the offense. If he can improve his shot then we really have a potential stud on our hands.

[Rainwater]

Castle should be the pick for you guys, makes the most sense.

Agreed.

People concerned with his shooting, but he actually fits well with Melo/Miller because of his cutting ability. He's going to be a secondary playmaker for the offense. If he can improve his shot then we really have a potential stud on our hands.

Yeah, his shot can easily be worked on. His defense and playmaking next to Melo/Miller just makes it perfect,

[EmpireFalls]

Castle should be the pick for you guys, makes the most sense.

Agreed.

People concerned with his shooting, but he actually fits well with Melo/Miller because of his cutting ability. He's going to be a secondary playmaker for the offense. If he can improve his shot then we really have a potential stud on our hands.

Yeah, his shot can easily be worked on. His defense and playmaking next to Melo/Miller just makes it perfect,

Just wish he was a better athlete. He’s more smooth than truly explosive. You expect him to be this athletic force but he’s kind of a below the rim finisher. He has good dunks occasionally but the hops don’t show up in his layups. He also doesn’t beat players off the dribble at all.

It would be perfect if he were 20% more athletic. But I suppose that’s the downside of picking 6th.

[JMAC3]

Sour Grapes Hot Take: I think the draft lottery is a travesty. .500 Rockets picking 3rd is one example of the stupidity. Guys coming out of college should be free agents. Teams should be able to negotiate with any and all of them. Isn't that what salary caps are for, to prevent them all from ending up on the same team? These guys and the clubs they're going to are worth millions and we're deciding who goes where with ping pong balls. Does no body else think this is stupid. F the draft.

This is a F- Take, especially as a fan of a small market team. Yes, I am sure Anthony Edwards would be on the Timberwolves, Chet the Thunder and LaMelo the Hornets.

Basically the lottery is the only way for small market teams to improve.

[Rainwater]

Agreed.

People concerned with his shooting, but he actually fits well with Melo/Miller because of his cutting ability. He's going to be a secondary playmaker for the offense. If he can improve his shot then we really have a potential stud on our hands.

Yeah, his shot can easily be worked on. His defense and playmaking next to Melo/Miller just makes it perfect,

Just wish he was a better athlete. He’s more smooth than truly explosive. You expect him to be this athletic force but he’s kind of a below the rim finisher. He has good dunks occasionally but the hops don’t show up in his layups. He also doesn’t beat players off the dribble at all.

It would be perfect if he were 20% more athletic. But I suppose that’s the downside of picking 6th.

I really don't think the Hornets need any more offensive players with Ball, Miles, and Miller. There are just so many shots that can go around. If he can just focus on his shooting, he should be a good fit.

[JMAC3]

It is early, but I actually think I have a decent feel for who is and won't be available for us to draft.
1. Atlanta will take Sarr 90% sure.
2. Wizards will take Sarr if ATL doesn't but I think their pick comes down to Topic vs Clingan. They have a bunch of wings in Deni, Bilal, Kispert, Kuzma... Wide open at point and center.
3. Houston is tough to know but I lean towards Risacher, FVV and Green aren't signed long term so I think Dillingham could be the sleeper choice though. Doubt they go center with Sengun, Adams and Landale. Sneaky team to trade out.
4. Spurs will take either Dillingham or Topic I believe. Which makes it unlikely Topic gets through both Wash and Spurs. Risacher fallback if somehow both guards are gone.
5. Detroit needs wings so feels like Risacher floor, they probably decide between Buzelis or Holland if Risacher goes #3.

So at 6. I feel like Sarr, Topic and Risacher are probably gone. Dillingham is likely gone as well, which is fine by me.

Holland- my # 1 target now, Detroit could snag. Have a hard time seeing him get past 8 if Spurs go guard first with Det, Cha, Portland all needing wings 5-7 too.

Castle- I just don't see him going top 5 very unlikely based on scenarios. This has always been his range in my mind 5-9.

Clingan - Washington could shock and take him #2 with an awful defense no center in sight after trading Gafford. Don't see any other team really considering him. After us, Memphis feels like his floor.

Buzelis - Detroit might consider him, but another guy in the 5-9 range

Cody Williams- doubt we consider him over the other the 4 above. Memphis might be his floor.
Reed Sheppard- I think 8-13 makes a lot of sense post lottery.

[JMAC3]

Another Way to look at it by prospect instead of team. First number feels like the ceiling, last number the floor.
Sarr- #1, #2
Topic- #2, #4
Risacher #3, #4 #5
Clingan #2, #6, #9.
Dillingham #2, #3, #4, #8
Holland #5, #6, #7, #8
Buzelis #5, #6, #7, #8
Castle #6, #8, #9
Williams #7, #8, #9
Knecht #8, #9, #10

I think it is likely these 11 guys are the top 10 picks based on the way the board shook out.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Castle should be the pick for you guys, makes the most sense.

I can't shake the Okoro vibes. He shoots less volume and lower percentage than Okoro from 3 as a freshman despite having much better team mates.

[luciano-davidwesley]

Another Way to look at it by prospect instead of team. First number feels like the ceiling, last number the floor.
Sarr- #1, #2
Topic- #2, #4
Risacher #3, #4 #5
Clingan #2, #6, #9.
Dillingham #2, #3, #4, #8
Holland #5, #6, #7, #8
Buzelis #5, #6, #7, #8
Castle #6, #8, #9
Williams #7, #8, #9
Knecht #8, #9, #10

I think it is likely these 11 guys are the top 10 picks based on the way the board shook out.

People trash Sheppard but rate grandpa one trick pony Knecht

[MasterIchiro]

I don't see Topic falling past 2 teams needing a floor general in Wiz and Spurs. His court vision is elite. His passing will translate and these 2 teams likely covet him. I suspect the Spurs would even angle to jump the Wiz and strike a deal with the Hawks for #1 overall.

The Hawks could consider swapping 1 for 4 overall + 8 plus the return of their 2025 and 2027 1st round picks from the Murray trade. Spurs also own Hornets 2025 lottery protected pick plus 2025 top-10 protected Bulls pick.

Open the vault for Topic.

Hawks could still get one of their guys at 4 and 8. They could secure a massive package of draft assets for a deadline deal where they add to Murray/Trae or pivot and rebuild around just one of Trae/Murray.

If the Spurs covet Topic like I do, they will move up to 1 for him, leaving the Wizards without a PG. Wiz take Sarr #2.

I still believe the Rockets will secure rim protection in this draft. They have plenty of offense. The West will spend the next 10-15 years trying to manage against Wemby. He's a roadblock. So Rockets take Clingan #3. He's not an answer but he's going to translate with his length, agility, strong hands and second jump. His touch is only going to get better. And his frame looks like he can add above average strength.

Rockets can always shift Sengün to 4 and Jabari Smith to 3 pr 6th man (their fans would hate hearing this considering they selected him over Chet). There is no PG worth taking here for the Rockets, and they sold the farm for FVV in free agency. Again, their offense is mostly settled.

So far:

1-Topic
2-Sarr
3- Clingan

OR

1-Sarr
2-Topic
3- Clingan.

Spurs trade or no Spurs trade, those are my top-3 talents and snug fits for their destinations.

Hornets don't really need a center with Mark Williams set to return. So no big loss on removal of Sarr and Clingan. Topic will not be able to defend 1-3, and keeping LaMelo on ball enhances his value as a prolific shot creator. So maybe Topic is no big loss (although he's my guy) in terms of fit.

Talent and upside are real. Clingan and Sarr have packages that translate, plus upside.

Spurs (or Hawks at 4) have to take Risacher as BPA. Some mocks have Risacher 1 overall. He won't fall past 4.

Pistons (5) really need a spacer alongside Duren who is a finisher. I can't see them passing on Buzelis.

Hornets projected options (in no particular order):

Holland
Reed Sheppard
Dillingham
Castle

[SWedd523]

Knecht is bigger and more athletic.

I don't really want either one at 6

[MasterIchiro]

Hornets projected options (in no particular order):

Holland
Reed Sheppard
Dillingham
Castle

Put differently, these are leftovers after my top 5 (in no particular order):

Sarr
Topic
Clingan
Risacher
Buzelis

Hornets fans could be split on Reed vs. Dillingham at guard or split between Holland vs. Castle at wing/perimeter defender.

Since I believe we have a systemic issue on defense, I think the debate should focus on Castle vs. Holland as wing defenders.

Castle has experience running PG, so his secondary playmaking boosts the roster more than Holland can. It gives him the edge considering neither will become a spacer nor project as prolific scorers.

They're pretty even defensively.

So any difference in their value boils down to added value on offense and IQ.

Give me the player who arrives with experience at point guard. Holland is never ever ever ever EVER going to develop into a secondary ball handler. Castle is close to NBA-ready in that trait/asset.

As far as IQ, Castle has a reputation of absorbing and complying with coaching/development. Hurley coaches to role. Castle makes good decisions on offense and defense. He was never about showcasing for the draft. He plays within a system and he plays with max effort.

Castle is the pick.

[Bassman]

Lots of good analysis here guys. Should probably move or copy some of these takes to the draft thread. The lottery punked us this year.

[LofJ]

It would have been nice to be at the 4 spot, but not really upset at moving back in this lottery. There isn't much separating the top 4 from the rest of the guys projected in the lottery. Most of my favorite players in this draft (Holland, Collier, Castle, Flipowski) will probably be there when we pick at 6.

[KembaWalker]

This draft was irrelevant anyway, i think i would have been more annoyed if we won this one after all these years being 1 or 2 spots away from a franchise changer

Only thing that matters this offseason is getting an NBA level coaching staff and medical department