Fun with Stats!!!

[yosemiteben]

Check out these defensive win share rankings from last season:

Lance Stephenson - 6th
Al Jefferson - 7th
Kemba Walker - 36th
Josh McRoberts - 46th
Gerald Henderson - 51st
MKG - 91st
Zeller - 92nd
Biz - 94th

Apparently I don't understand what defensive win shares are.

[HornetJail]

Check out these defensive win share rankings from last season:

Lance Stephenson - 6th
Al Jefferson - 7th
Kemba Walker - 36th
Josh McRoberts - 46th
Gerald Henderson - 51st
MKG - 91st
Zeller - 92nd
Biz - 94th

Apparently I don't understand what defensive win shares are.

Our players have high DWS numbers because of how good of a defense we really were.

Look at the top 20 (copy pasted of b-r):
1. Joakim Noah-CHI 6.6
2. Paul George-IND 6.4
3. DeAndre Jordan-LAC 5.8
4. David West-IND 5.0
5. Roy Hibbert-IND 5.0
6. Lance Stephenson-IND 4.8
7. Al Jefferson-CHA 4.7
8. Jimmy Butler-CHI 4.6
9. Tim Duncan-SAS 4.6
10. Kevin Durant-OKC 4.4
11. Serge Ibaka-OKC 4.4
12. Taj Gibson-CHI 4.4
13. Carlos Boozer-CHI 4.3
14. Blake Griffin-LAC 4.1
15. Mike Dunleavy-CHI 4.1
16. Dwight Howard-HOU 4.1
17. Andrew Bogut-GSW 4.0
18. Marcin Gortat-WAS 4.0
19. Stephen Curry-GSW 4.0
20. George Hill-IND 4.0

Just about every player on that list comes from a top-notch defensive team.

DWS are swayed heavily by playing heavy minutes on a great defensive team with a low DRtg or being on a team that simply won a $h*t ton of games, which is why you see the entirety of Indiana's starting five, and most of Chicago's rotation.

Biyombo at 94th in DWS is a nice stat since he was tied for 248th in minutes this season.

[LamarMatic7]

Check out these defensive win share rankings from last season:

Lance Stephenson - 6th
Al Jefferson - 7th
Kemba Walker - 36th
Josh McRoberts - 46th
Gerald Henderson - 51st
MKG - 91st
Zeller - 92nd
Biz - 94th

Apparently I don't understand what defensive win shares are.

The algorithm that calculates defensive win shares heavily relies on how many minutes you played and team's total defensive possessions. Even if you do have a good defensive rating, it can get lost in between all of the other numbers.

[fatlever]

the difference between NBA.com and Bball-ref when it comes to Ortg and Drtg is ridiculous.

For example

thru 5 games.

jason maxiell
nba.com - 102.0 Orgt, 96.6 Drtg
bball-ref - 77.0 Ortg, 102 Drtg

MKG
nba.com - 86.3 Orgt, 95.8 Drtg
bball-ref - 139 Ortg, 95 Drtg

[LamarMatic7]

the difference between NBA.com and Bball-ref when it comes to Ortg and Drtg is ridiculous.

For example

thru 5 games.

jason maxiell
nba.com - 102.0 Orgt, 96.6 Drtg
bball-ref - 77.0 Ortg, 102 Drtg

MKG
nba.com - 86.3 Orgt, 95.8 Drtg
bball-ref - 139 Ortg, 95 Drtg

safe bet that Clifford is using nba.com, I guess.

At first, it feels like Maxiell's on/off is mind-blowing but I guess it makes sense when you go back and thing about the flow of our games. He probably accidentally has been a part of a few runs our bench made after our starters had hit a real big double digit deficit.

[trins]

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/

Wow looking at Big Al in-game, his defense looks worse than the stat posted in nba.com . I mean he only allows 41% FG better than Dwight Howard!

[LamarMatic7]

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/

Wow looking at Big Al in-game, his defense looks worse than the stat posted in nba.com . I mean he only allows 41% FG better than Dwight Howard!

I'm sure he won't be able to keep up a pace that his him going for what would have been a top3 result last season.

[fatlever]

tiny sample size (only 9 minutes) but the lineup of kemba, lance, mkg, zeller, jefferson has a defensive rating in the 30s.

[fatlever]

thru 11 games

i spent a lot of time yesterday on stats.nba checking out our best and worst 3-man and 4-man lineups, using net rating (offense rating minus defensive rating) as the main focal point. when i filtered the lists to show only lineups that had logged a decent amount of minutes together there were some obvious trends.

the main net positive guys right now are gary neal and cody zeller. they showed up in a high percentage of the positive lineups and none of the negative lineups.

there are 11 3-man lineups that have logged at least 50 minutes and produced a positive net rating. here is a list of who showed up the most times in those 11 lineups.

7 - neal, zeller
5 - lance
4 - kemba
3 - maxiel, roberts
2 - jefferson
1 - hairston, williams
0 - mkg, henderson

the 11 worst net rating 3-man lineups with at least 50 minutes

6 - lance, hendo, kemba
5 - mkg, williams, jefferson
0 - neal, zeller

the 4-man lineups that include kemba, lance, marvin and jefferson are the two worst net rating lineups by a huge margin. it doesnt seem to matter if either mkg or hendo is included. however, simply replacing either hendo or mkg with neal and/or replacing marvin with zeller produced two of the best lineups. oddly, lance has played with most of the best units and worst units.

mkg has missed a bunch of games so its really hard to get a read on his impact so far. hendo has played heavily in two of our big blowouts which is killing his net ratings (deserved or not is yet to be seen).

what is very clear is that our starting lineup is a massive disaster right now. how much longer can clifford continue to use that lineup if it keeps producing similar results?

more minutes for neal and zeller are deserved. less minutes for marvin. hendo and mkg to be determined.

[LamarMatic7]

what I found interesting while scooping around stats.nba.com - Kemba takes a bigger share of shots where the defender is "very close" (0 to 2 feet) than Kobe.

[EwingSweatsALot]

what I found interesting while scooping around stats.nba.com - Kemba takes a bigger share of shots where the defender is "very close" (0 to 2 feet) than Kobe.

Your thoughts on why that is? I haven't watched enough Lakers games to know if Kobe is just getting open shots or guys just aren't defending him because he isn't shooting very well.

My biggest issue with Kemba was always him being able to get separation on his shot. One reason why I don't think he will be able to maintain shooting at a respectable percentage. He has good handles and good quickness but for his height both of those have to be elite to be able to get good separation for his shots. He isn't an elite athlete which hurts him and he isn't an elite playmaker (this obviously doesn't matter in this retrospect though).

It could be that maybe Kemba just drives more which I would assume has a higher percentage of a defender being close.

[LamarMatic7]

what I found interesting while scooping around stats.nba.com - Kemba takes a bigger share of shots where the defender is "very close" (0 to 2 feet) than Kobe.

Your thoughts on why that is? I haven't watched enough Lakers games to know if Kobe is just getting open shots or guys just aren't defending him because he isn't shooting very well.

My biggest issue with Kemba was always him being able to get separation on his shot. One reason why I don't think he will be able to maintain shooting at a respectable percentage. He has good handles and good quickness but for his height both of those have to be elite to be able to get good separation for his shots. He isn't an elite athlete which hurts him and he isn't an elite playmaker (this obviously doesn't matter in this retrospect though).

It could be that maybe Kemba just drives more which I would assume has a higher percentage of a defender being close.

Kobe definitely is taking very difficult shots, he really stands out among twos as they in general don't shoot as many shots with a defender so close since their position allows them to come off off-ball screens, space the floor and get catch-and-shoot opportunities. Point guards, having to handle the ball so much, take such shots way more often than twos (except if you're talking about Kobe, haha, he's in front of the majority of them).

But forgetting Kobe and being on a more serious note, I've yet to find a point guard who takes a bigger share of his shots with a defender so close. Jeff Teague is been the only one I've found whose somewhat close.

Kemba's also high in shots after 7+ dribbles but there are guys whose playing styles have them pounding the air out of the ball even more. Control freak like Chris Paul, product of SAS numerous pick-n-roll system in Tony Parker, guy who has to carry his team the only way he knows in Reggie Jackson.

I guess equal parts of the blame is on our stagnant offense and on Kemba himself. I think at this point we pretty much know who he is and how he plays.

[fatlever]

and how many of those contested shots by kemba are mid-range jumpers? my biggest issue with kemba has always been that he settles for contested mid-range jumpers simply because he knows he can get that shot off on pretty much anyone, regardless of defense. its still an awfully low % shot.

same goes for hendo.

[EwingSweatsALot]

what I found interesting while scooping around stats.nba.com - Kemba takes a bigger share of shots where the defender is "very close" (0 to 2 feet) than Kobe.

Your thoughts on why that is? I haven't watched enough Lakers games to know if Kobe is just getting open shots or guys just aren't defending him because he isn't shooting very well.

My biggest issue with Kemba was always him being able to get separation on his shot. One reason why I don't think he will be able to maintain shooting at a respectable percentage. He has good handles and good quickness but for his height both of those have to be elite to be able to get good separation for his shots. He isn't an elite athlete which hurts him and he isn't an elite playmaker (this obviously doesn't matter in this retrospect though).

It could be that maybe Kemba just drives more which I would assume has a higher percentage of a defender being close.

I also saw on twitter that someone tweeted that the close stat doesn't count for wingspan and reach. I am pretty sure this is what they are talking about.

If that is the case, for other PGs to contest they have to be closer to their opponent than a SG would because of height and wingspan. That could also be a factor in why Kemba does have a higher rate than Kobe. Kobe might take more difficult shots but his defender isn't "close" because the guy is 6'7'' and not 6'2''
Kobe definitely is taking very difficult shots, he really stands out among twos as they in general don't shoot as many shots with a defender so close since their position allows them to come off off-ball screens, space the floor and get catch-and-shoot opportunities. Point guards, having to handle the ball so much, take such shots way more often than twos (except if you're talking about Kobe, haha, he's in front of the majority of them).

But forgetting Kobe and being on a more serious note, I've yet to find a point guard who takes a bigger share of his shots with a defender so close. Jeff Teague is been the only one I've found whose somewhat close.

Kemba's also high in shots after 7+ dribbles but there are guys whose playing styles have them pounding the air out of the ball even more. Control freak like Chris Paul, product of SAS numerous pick-n-roll system in Tony Parker, guy who has to carry his team the only way he knows in Reggie Jackson.

I guess equal parts of the blame is on our stagnant offense and on Kemba himself. I think at this point we pretty much know who he is and how he plays.

[EwingSweatsALot]

So I don't know if I would call this FUN with stats, or maybe just stats. Anyways I wanted to see how right the gripes with the Alfense are. How we become stagnant, the ball sticks, we sit around and watch. So I did a quick look at Al's passing, which obviously doesn't show the whole picture, but it does show some of it.

Disclaimer: All these stats are based on a pool of players that have played at least 5 games and average 20 minutes a game.

I first looked at Passes per Touch.

Al passes on 50.5% of his touches. There is only one person in this pool with a lower percentage than that. And I am sure you have guessed it, Kobe Bean Bryant.

I then looked at AstOpp per Touch, AstOpp per Pass, and Ast/AstOpp

Compared to low post players Al actually does pretty well in all three of these. He is high in all three compared to low post players.

So what does it say? I really don't know.

The first stat obviously shows Al is a black hole, which we all know. The ball doesn't come back out once it goes in.

The other three I don't know what to make of it. Are they high because when we actually move Al can find the open guy? Are they all high because Al is a selfish passer and only passes when he believes his teammate can get a bucket, basically saying I have a better chance of scoring then they do? Are they high because most of the other low post players on the list aren't offensive threats so other players aren't open?

Maybe the answer is yes to all three of those. One thing is for sure though is that when Al passes we tend to do well. We shoot 48% on his assist opportunities. He doesn't need to be a black hole for us. We can have a more flowing offense it would seem. The question is how do you balance that with the fact that the only player out of this pool better than him in Pts per Half Court Touch is Anthony Davis?

[HornetJail]

So I don't know if I would call this FUN with stats, or maybe just stats. Anyways I wanted to see how right the gripes with the Alfense are. How we become stagnant, the ball sticks, we sit around and watch. So I did a quick look at Al's passing, which obviously doesn't show the whole picture, but it does show some of it.

Disclaimer: All these stats are based on a pool of players that have played at least 5 games and average 20 minutes a game.

I first looked at Passes per Touch.

Al passes on 50.5% of his touches. There is only one person in this pool with a lower percentage than that. And I am sure you have guessed it, Kobe Bean Bryant.

I then looked at AstOpp per Touch, AstOpp per Pass, and Ast/AstOpp

Compared to low post players Al actually does pretty well in all three of these. He is high in all three compared to low post players.

So what does it say? I really don't know.

The first stat obviously shows Al is a black hole, which we all know. The ball doesn't come back out once it goes in.

The other three I don't know what to make of it. Are they high because when we actually move Al can find the open guy? Are they all high because Al is a selfish passer and only passes when he believes his teammate can get a bucket, basically saying I have a better chance of scoring then they do? Are they high because most of the other low post players on the list aren't offensive threats so other players aren't open?

Maybe the answer is yes to all three of those. One thing is for sure though is that when Al passes we tend to do well. We shoot 48% on his assist opportunities. He doesn't need to be a black hole for us. We can have a more flowing offense it would seem. The question is how do you balance that with the fact that the only player out of this pool better than him in Pts per Half Court Touch is Anthony Davis?

I want to see Jefferson's numbers from last year I bet those are terrific

[fatlever]

2-man lineups with at least 100 minutes together (as of 11/22)

the best 5 in net rating

1. lance/cody +10.5
2. roberts/cody +5.9
3. kemba/cody +5.6
4. neal/cody +3.4
5. neal/lance -1.1

the worst 5 in net rating

1. kemba/mkg -14.9
2. lance/marvin -14.7
3. lance/mkg -14.4
4. mkg/marvin -13.4
5. marvin/jefferson -13.3

others of note

lance/jefferson -8.0
kemba/jefferson -9.3
kemba/lance -4.7

[yosemiteben]

Wtf with those Kemba / MKG and Lancer / MKG net ratings. Would not have guessed that.

[fatlever]

Wtf with those Kemba / MKG and Lancer / MKG net ratings. Would not have guessed that.

we have been really bad in the 1st quarter of most games this year. the starting lineup of kemba, lance, mkg (or hendo or pj), marvin and jefferson - all of those pairings are near the bottom in terms of net ratings. the starting lineup of kemba, lance, mkg, marvin and jefferson has a -19 net rating, worst on the team for any group that has played a large chunk of minutes. the lineup with hendo replacing mkg is 2nd worst (only made better because of last night)

part of the reason i keep looking up these lineup stats is because there is a clear problem with the starting units that cliff is using. last night was one of the only nights where that unit actually played well together. lance and mkg (or hendo) is a spacing disaster. marvin and jefferson is a defensive disaster. lance and kemba don't fit together because neither is good off the ball. lance and jefferson dont work because jefferson clogs the paint taking away what lance does best, driving and creating. jefferson sets lousy picks, which ruins the pick and roll game with those two. lance provides awful spacing for jefferson.

there are so many terrible fits in that starting lineup. i dont think its a lack of chemistry problem or a lack of practice. i dont think that it will get much better as that groups play more minutes together - unless we drastically change our offensive strategy with that group and even then you still have the massive problem of the defensive pairing of marvin and jefferson.

the solution lies with a lineup change, either through benching some starters or from a trade.

there isnt a coach in the world that can make that starting lineup work on both sides of the ball.

[LamarMatic7]

Wtf with those Kemba / MKG and Lancer / MKG net ratings. Would not have guessed that.

we have been really bad in the 1st quarter of most games this year. the starting lineup of kemba, lance, mkg (or hendo or pj), marvin and jefferson - all of those pairings are near the bottom in terms of net ratings. the starting lineup of kemba, lance, mkg, marvin and jefferson has a -19 net rating, worst on the team for any group that has played a large chunk of minutes. the lineup with hendo replacing mkg is 2nd worst (only made better because of last night)

part of the reason i keep looking up these lineup stats is because there is a clear problem with the starting units that cliff is using. last night was one of the only nights where that unit actually played well together. lance and mkg (or hendo) is a spacing disaster. marvin and jefferson is a defensive disaster. lance and kemba don't fit together because neither is good off the ball. lance and jefferson dont work because jefferson clogs the paint taking away what lance does best, driving and creating. jefferson sets lousy picks, which ruins the pick and roll game with those two. lance provides awful spacing for jefferson.

there are so many terrible fits in that starting lineup. i dont think its a lack of chemistry problem or a lack of practice. i dont think that it will get much better as that groups play more minutes together - unless we drastically change our offensive strategy with that group and even then you still have the massive problem of the defensive pairing of marvin and jefferson.

the solution lies with a lineup change, either through benching some starters or from a trade.

there isnt a coach in the world that can make that starting lineup work on both sides of the ball.

to put this into perspective:

if compared to whole teams, they would rank dead last in both eFG% and TS%. the freaking Sixers who are putting up 88.9 points per 100 possessions are about two percent better than our starting five in those categories.