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Fun with Stats!!!

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EwingSweatsALot
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#441 » by EwingSweatsALot » Sat Dec 19, 2015 5:55 pm

So I spent way too much time putting this together, but anyways...

The goal was to determine the players who excel the best at the shots that they take. Basically trying to eliminate the debate of well how come Player A shoots better from MidRange than Player B, well because Player B is defended tighter than Player A. And then the Kemba debate where is FG% is lower because he has to take more difficult shots at the end of the shot clock. Debates like that.

NBASavant.com has every shot taken based off of SportsVU. I compiled all of those and then just did a **** ton of formulas. The factors I used were Shot Distance, Defender Distance, and Shot Clock Time. In my mind the three main factors that are compiled to determine how a guy shoots and how well he does shoot.

The point numbers are based off of 100 shots and those 100 shots compiled of their same shot type percentages they take. The final number is then a difference of the league average.

For example the top two are:

Steph Curry - 26.76
Kevin Durant - 26.51

So it is basically saying that if an average player shot the exact same shots that Curry did then Curry would score 26.76 more points per 100 field goal attempts than that average player.

Best and Worst in FGA ranges:

100-199 FGA
Ed Davis- 23.90
Garrett Temple- -27.30

200-299
JJ Redick- 20.44
Emmanuel Mudiay- -26.85

300-399
Kevin Durant- 26.51
Derrick Rose- -16.66

400+
Stephen Curry- 26.76
James harden- -3.36

Here are the numbers for the Hornets

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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#442 » by Yit » Sun Dec 20, 2015 7:10 am

Updating after Game 26

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16----G17---G18---G19---G20---G21---G22---G23---G24---G25---G26
KW15----49-----36-----34------49-----20------38-----38-------9-----33----37-----41-----43-----32----31-----40-----24
JL7-------28-----27-----18------24-----15------23-----24-----22-----26----31------13----30-----31-----18-----41----28
BR22-----NA-----NA------9------NA----NA------NA-----NA-----23-----NA----UR----UR----UR----NA-----UR----NA----NA
NB5-------10-----32-----22-----30------40------33-----28----40-----45-----30------38----32-----34-----17----NA-----35
JL3-------36-----17-----22------25-----36------33-----39----31-----22-----23------32-----27----34-----44-----24-----41
TD30-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA----NA-----31----NA-----UR-----UR----UR----NA-----UR---- -1----NA
AH9-------NA----NA----UR-----NA------NA-----NA-----NA----UR----NA-----UR-----UR----UR----NA-----NA----NA----NA
MW2-------7-----28-----25------21-----31------23-----28-----UR----25------35-----42-----15----12-----18-----29-----23
PJH19----NA----NA-----NA-----18-----19--------9-----12-----UR------0-----20------19----11-----18-----32-----22----32
MKG14---NA----NA-----NA-----NA-----NA------NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA----NA----NA-----NA----NA----NA
CZ40-----21------8------NA-----22-----30-------29------9------17----35-----39-----21------9-----27-----30-----17----27
FK44-----12------24----28------22------6-------11-----21-----32-----12-----14-----21-----31-----15-----22-----20----22
TH50-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA-----UR----42-----UR----UR-----18-----UR----NA------2-----UR---UR
AJ25------29----36-----52------21-----35-------28-----UR----NA-----NA----NA-----NA-----NA----NA-----NA----NA---NA
SH00-----47-----34-----16-----UR-----NA------UR------22----35-----38-----27-----15-----19-----35------4-----27----28

Averages over 10+games:
KW15 (25Gav) 34 +/- 10
NB5 (25Gav) 32 +/- 10
JL3 (25Gav) - 31 +/- 8
JL7 (25Gav) - 26 +/- 9
MW2 (25Gav) - 25 +/- 8

CZ40 (20Gav) - 22 +/- 10
SH00 (20Gav) - 22 +/- 12
PJH19 (20Gav) - 17 +/- 7

AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
FK44 (15Gav) - 19 +/- 7
Stability is a myth perpetuated by the agents called homeostasis and status quo....
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#443 » by yosemiteben » Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:11 pm

Hornets at home: 104.8 ORTG (9th overall), 96.0 DRTG (6th overall), 8.8 net rating (4th overall)
Hornets on the road: 103.2 ORTG (6th overall), 104.2 DRTG (21st overall), -1.0 net rating (15th overall)

So it turns out that, up to this point in the season, offensively we are better on the road than all but 5 teams. Did not expect that.

Also turns out that our defense does not travel - we suck defensively on the road. Interestingly we have a higher DRB% on the road than we do at home.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#444 » by Yit » Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:00 am

Updating after Game 27

It's quite frustrating when the officials call weird kinds of fouls on the team....but there's still no excuse for poor shooting though sigh....

Contribution Points of Players Per Game
Player---G11---G12---G13----G14---G15----G16----G17---G18---G19---G20---G21---G22---G23---G24---G25---G26---G27
KW15----49-----36-----34------49-----20------38-----38-------9-----33----37-----41-----43-----32----31-----40-----24-----22
JL7-------28-----27-----18------24-----15------23-----24-----22-----26----31------13----30-----31-----18-----41----28-----35
BR22-----NA-----NA------9------NA----NA------NA-----NA-----23-----NA----UR----UR----UR----NA-----UR----NA----NA-----UR
NB5-------10-----32-----22-----30------40------33-----28----40-----45-----30------38----32-----34-----17----NA-----35-----21
JL3-------36-----17-----22------25-----36------33-----39----31-----22-----23------32-----27----34-----44-----24-----41-----31
TD30-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA----NA-----31----NA-----UR-----UR----UR----NA-----UR---- -1----NA-----UR
AH9-------NA----NA----UR-----NA------NA-----NA-----NA----UR----NA-----UR-----UR----UR----NA-----NA----NA----NA-----NA
MW2-------7-----28-----25------21-----31------23-----28-----UR----25------35-----42-----15----12-----18-----29-----23----31
PJH19----NA----NA-----NA-----18-----19--------9-----12-----UR------0-----20------19----11-----18-----32-----22----32-----21
MKG14---NA----NA-----NA-----NA-----NA------NA-----NA-----NA----NA----NA------NA----NA----NA-----NA----NA----NA-----NA
CZ40-----21------8------NA-----22-----30-------29------9------17----35-----39-----21------9-----27-----30-----17----27-----26
FK44-----12------24----28------22------6-------11-----21-----32-----12-----14-----21-----31-----15-----22-----20----22-----33
TH50-----NA----NA-----UR-----NA-----NA------NA-----UR----42-----UR----UR-----18-----UR----NA------2-----UR---UR-----NA
AJ25------29----36-----52------21-----35-------28-----UR----NA-----NA----NA-----NA-----NA----NA-----NA----NA---NA------NA
SH00-----47-----34-----16-----UR-----NA------UR------22----35-----38-----27-----15-----19-----35------4-----27----28------12

Averages over 10+games:
KW15 (25Gav) 34 +/- 10
NB5 (25Gav) 32 +/- 10
JL3 (25Gav) - 31 +/- 8
JL7 (25Gav) - 26 +/- 9
MW2 (25Gav) - 25 +/- 8
CZ40 (25Gav) - 22 +/- 9

SH00 (20Gav) - 22 +/- 12
FK44 (20Gav) - 20 +/- 7
PJH19 (20Gav) - 17 +/- 7

AJ25 (15Gav) - 34 +/- 13
Stability is a myth perpetuated by the agents called homeostasis and status quo....
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#445 » by Roy Tarpley » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:26 pm

Yit, can you explain what your numbers mean? I'm just a caveman.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#446 » by Roy Tarpley » Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:15 pm

Our individual FG%s are looking sucky.

Batum, a 6'8" player, is shooting 41.9% That is his second worst %, next to his career low last year.
Kemba is regressing back to the mean, and he's now at 43.7% but his 3PT% is at 36% and he's at his career average for FT%.
Marvin is at 41.7%, also a career low -- but he's shooting his FTs well and hitting 36% from 3PT.
Cody is at 49%, well above his career average, an encouraging sign.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#447 » by HornetJail » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:37 pm

Virtually night and day when you compare November shooting percentages to December shooting percentages. Everyone who was playing well has started to suck at shooting jumpers, and everyone who was sucking has started to play well.

Nic: 43.0/41.4/89.6 -> 40.2/32.7/78.6
Lamb: 52.3/33.9/68.0 -> 40.8/25.7/73.3
Kemba: 48.3/42.4/78.8 -> 39.5/29.8/84.8
Marvin: 46.6/42.6/86.4 -> 35.2/29.4/100

Spencer: 34.8/32/100 -> 50/50/92.9
PJ: 34.5/25.0/90.9 -> 35.5/38.1/83.3
Lin: 41.1/26.2/80.4 -> 47.9/35.5/68.2
Frank: 41.7/40/75 -> 46.6/34.5/70.8
Cody: 46.2/0/66.7 -> 52.7/0/75.8

I swear every single player in our active roster is either ON or OFF with his shot, and there's virtually no in between. The only player who isn't is Al Jefferson, but he's such an enormous liability on defense, and throws off the rhythm on offense to the point where he may not even be worth playing unless we're struggling and need a couple bail out possessions.
investigate Adam Silver
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#448 » by Roy Tarpley » Tue Dec 22, 2015 8:48 pm

I wonder if it's a minutes issue (i.e., players getting tired).

- For example, Marvin is averaging more minutes this year than he has since 2008-2009 on the Hawks.
- Kemba has played more than 40 minutes over the last 3 games.

I'd like to see Batum play SF, and then have Lin or Lamb start at SG. To address the concern about no bench punch, you can have Lin or Kemba hit the bench early, say at the 6 minute mark, and then come back to lead the second unit in the second quarter.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#449 » by fatlever » Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:56 pm

Is there any correlation to the timing between Jefferson missing games and our 3pt shooting among starters dropping?
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#450 » by Roy Tarpley » Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:14 am

That's a good hypothesis and we can probably just use the Nov/Dec differential since Al stopped playing at the end of November.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#451 » by sidestep » Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:19 am

When shooters are missing lots of WIDE OPEN threes, like last night, it doesn't correlate to anything. They are just missing shots.

IF any correlation exists, it would be with the generation of wide-open 3s, not with the outcome of those 3P attempts per se.

Besides, it's not as if Al ever showed an effective in-out passing game this year. When he got doubled, he mostly just shot it himself anyway. Al benefited from having better shooting around him this year, but the shooters didn't benefit from Al.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#452 » by JDR720 » Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:09 am

fatlever wrote:Is there any correlation to the timing between Jefferson missing games and our 3pt shooting among starters dropping?

i think its more of guys regressing back to their career averages.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#453 » by EwingSweatsALot » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:33 am

sidestep wrote:When shooters are missing lots of WIDE OPEN threes, like last night, it doesn't correlate to anything. They are just missing shots.

IF any correlation exists, it would be with the generation of wide-open 3s, not with the outcome of those 3P attempts per se.

Besides, it's not as if Al ever showed an effective in-out passing game this year. When he got doubled, he mostly just shot it himself anyway. Al benefited from having better shooting around him this year, but the shooters didn't benefit from Al.



Just looked at the consistent starters. Batum, Hairston, Walker Williams.

Before Al got hurt, 33.7% of their 3s were wide open(defender >=6ft away). After he got hurt it has dropped some to 30.9%.

Those 4 are attempting 2 more 3s per game since Al has been out, .2 more wide open threes.

Wide open 3P FG% has slightly dropped for those 4 combined. 37.4% before Al got hurt. 35.0% since Al got hurt.

So it has hurt us but minimally. Those 4 are generating half a point more from 3 with Al out - the opportunity cost of having to take two more threes to do it. Opportunity cost is probably extremely minimal though considering you wouldn't ask any of those 4 to pass up a wide open 3.
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#454 » by EwingSweatsALot » Wed Dec 23, 2015 2:36 am

JDR720 wrote:
fatlever wrote:Is there any correlation to the timing between Jefferson missing games and our 3pt shooting among starters dropping?

i think its more of guys regressing back to their career averages.


Pretty much. On wide open threes before and after Al got hurt. Only Hairston is shooting better out of the 4 consistent starters.

Batum 52.2% ----> 44.4%
Hairston 28.6% ----> 33.3%
Williams 34.2% ----> 29.2% (how this is possible, I have no clue)
Walker 35.3% ----> 33.3%
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#455 » by TinmanZBoy » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:17 am

Perimeter Defenders on PnR handlers
poss----- Freq%-------PPP----- Pencentile
Kemba 181------51.7%------ 0.86------33.8
Nic 68------24.7%-------0.90----- 25
Lin 67------31.9%-------0.63------82.9
Lamb 51------62.3%------- 0.84------36.7
PJ 48------28.9%-------1.35--------0.4
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#456 » by TinmanZBoy » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:31 am

Perimeter Defenders on Spot-up shooting
poss----- Freq%-------PPP----- Pencentile
Kemba 90------25.7%------ 0.94------51.4
Nic 90------32.7%-------0.86----- 68.4
Lin 89------42.4.9%-------1.10------18.6
Lamb 73------37.6%------- 0.66------91.2
PJ 42------25.3%-------1.26--------7.6
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#457 » by TinmanZBoy » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:36 am

Perimeter Defenders on Iso
poss----- Freq%-------PPP----- Pencentile
Kemba 22------6.3%------ 1.05------18.7
Nic 19-----6.9%-------0.89----- 38
Lin 11------5.2%-------0.55------89
Lamb 6------3.1%------- 0.15------n/a
PJ 14-----8.4%-------0.43--------95.4
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#458 » by TinmanZBoy » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:42 am

Perimeter Defenders on Screen
poss----- Freq%-------PPP----- Pencentile
Kemba 20------5.7%------ 0.80------62.9
Nic 32------11.6%-------0.63----- 82.6
Lin 18------8.6%-------0.72------73.8
Lamb 21------10.8%------- 1.19------17.3
PJ 22------13.3%-------1.36--------6.8
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#459 » by TinmanZBoy » Wed Dec 23, 2015 6:55 am

ok, among perimeter defenders, Lin handles the PnR ball handler the best, but he is killed by spot-up shooters, he sometimes cheated too much in helping, and his close-out was not quick enough on the spot-up shooters, particularly when he plays the shooting guard role.... PJ basically is trashed in either situations, facing the best perimeter players of opposing teams has something to do with it, but I've never been sold that he is a good PnR defender.....he did the best on defending Iso....
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Re: Fun with Stats!!! 

Post#460 » by phillycheese » Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:37 pm

I think PJ is a very inexperienced (ie "dumb") defender. On the ISOs there is no other options for him to consider. He does well in these. The guys at Hive Talk Live mentioned they thought Kemba was a better perimeter defender than Lin, but the number just don't support that premise.

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