Ringer: No, the Lakers’ Massive Free Throw Advantage Isn’t a Conspiracy

[ChipotleWest]

I'm the first one that mentioned it's been two years in a row. Do you know much of a coincidence that would be if it was just natural? Because it's not just about the Lakers getting calls, for there to be a disparity their opponents regardless of which team in the entire NBA, have to not get calls and we're in season two of it. Practically impossible.

[NyKnicks1714]

I'm the first one that mentioned it's been two years in a row. Do you know much of a coincidence that would be if it was just natural? Because it's not just about the Lakers getting calls, for there to be a disparity their opponents regardless of which team in the entire NBA, have to not get calls and we're in season two of it. Practically impossible.

No one said it's a coincidence. You're acting like FT differential is just some random thing; if it was, you'd have a great case. It's largely based on both their offensive and defensive game-plans, but I have yet to encounter a single person here who disagrees with me and is willing to actually get into that discussion.

[AussieCeltic]

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.

Not at all. The whistle they got after was the highest 3 month span in NBA history and by a wide margin. It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years. So I’m sorry, there isn’t evidence to support they were getting an unfavourable whistle before. Unless you think 75+ years of history isn’t enough data to back up that claim?

I didn't make the claim they were getting an unfavorable whistle prior to that date. You're the one who brought up that date, not me. All you did was show FTA/g before and after. On it's own that means nothing. You need to be able to actually demonstrate that they got a favorable whistle afterwards. And we don't even know if it's an either/or, a both, or a neither.

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior.

I mean, you said it right there.

It’s like saying, there’s no evidence to say Brook Lopez couldn’t shoot threes before 2017. Like ok, if you just rule out all the stats before and after then sure. But you know what, we have statistical data. It’s right there in front of your face. It’s like a flip was just switched.

October - Jan: middle of the pack free throw differential.

Celtics game with missed foul on Lebron. Lakers organisation and media have the biggest cry I’ve see. Then right after that exact game (not a week before, not a week after), they go on to have the highest free throw differential in NBA history over a 3 month span.

I mean, come on.

[ChipotleWest]

I'm the first one that mentioned it's been two years in a row. Do you know much of a coincidence that would be if it was just natural? Because it's not just about the Lakers getting calls, for there to be a disparity their opponents regardless of which team in the entire NBA, have to not get calls and we're in season two of it. Practically impossible.

No one said it's a coincidence. You're acting like FT differential is just some random thing; if it was, you'd have a great case. It's largely based on both their offensive and defensive game-plans, but I have yet to encounter a single person here who disagrees with me and is willing to actually get into that discussion.

So now you're saying it's just the Lakers play style to not only get free throws but prevent their opponent regardless of which other 29 teams they are from getting them?

[ChipotleWest]

The Lakers are just the GOATs are not only getting calls but not causing fouls it's obvious.

[NyKnicks1714]

Not at all. The whistle they got after was the highest 3 month span in NBA history and by a wide margin. It was also in line what the AD/Lebron Lakers had received the previous few years. So I’m sorry, there isn’t evidence to support they were getting an unfavourable whistle before. Unless you think 75+ years of history isn’t enough data to back up that claim?

I didn't make the claim they were getting an unfavorable whistle prior to that date. You're the one who brought up that date, not me. All you did was show FTA/g before and after. On it's own that means nothing. You need to be able to actually demonstrate that they got a favorable whistle afterwards. And we don't even know if it's an either/or, a both, or a neither.

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior.

I mean, you said it right there.

I absolutely did not, and don't put words in my mouth. Learn the difference between rejecting a claim and making one of your own. I'm saying there's as much evidence to support either claim, and that is none. At least none that I've seen or you've presented so far.

October - Jan: middle of the pack free throw differential.

Celtics game with missed foul on Lebron. Lakers organisation and media have the biggest cry I’ve see. Then right after that exact game, they go on to have the highest free throw differential in NBA history over a 3 month span.

I mean, come on.

Again, you're just telling me they shot more free throws after that date, which I already know. You have presented 0 evidence to suggest it's because they got a favorable whistle afterwards and not an unfavorable one prior which was corrected. It could be either, it could be both, it could be none. I'll be here if you ever want to try show why one is true and not the other. The fact that they were middle-of-the-pack beforehand doesn't offer any support to what you're claiming. A team can be middle of the pack getting the right whistle, a bad whistle, or a good whistle.

[brutalitops]

For my gambler and conspiratorial friends on here, a robust analysis:

Beyond a pernicious plot, moreover, there is ample reason to believe this Lakers team should draw many more fouls than it commits. On offense, the Lakers rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate, per CtG, and are tied for second in the rate of shots they attempt at the rim. (The team with the highest at-rim frequency is Orlando, which leads the league in free throw rate.) In other words, L.A. takes a larger proportion of its shots in the area most likely to draw foul calls.

And on defense, the opposite is true: The Lakers allow the fourth-lowest frequency of shots at the rim and the fifth-highest frequency of 3-pointers, meaning they funnel opposing teams into the sorts of shots that don’t draw fouls. Teams with similar defensive shot charts include the Celtics, who rank second in lowest opponent free throw rate, and the Heat, who rank fourth.

Put another way, the Lakers have taken 435 more free throws than their opponents this season—but they’ve taken 513 fewer 3-pointers (ahead of only the Bulls’ minus-535 margin). Given that not even 1 percent of 3-point attempts produce foul calls, that’s a gigantic number of extra shots on which the Lakers can draw contact.

...

The free throw disparity kings of the 21st century are the 2017-18 Charlotte Hornets, who went 36-46 despite attempting a whopping 722 more free throws than their opponents. It’s hard to imagine that the league office concocted a conspiracy to help those Hornets, whose leading free throw takers were Kemba Walker, Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Clearly, there’s more to a large free throw disparity than player reputation or the whims of referees.

On a percentage basis, those Hornets attempted 48 percent more free throws than their opponents. For comparison, the 2022-23 Lakers were at plus-28 percent (which ranks 15th this century), and the 2023-24 Lakers are at plus-34 percent (which ranks ninth this century) with 10 games to go.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/3/28/24114310/doc-rivers-milwaukee-bucks-lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers

-Celtics average a decent amount of FTA for the second most 3's in the league
-Orlando attack the rim more, Shoot 0.5% more 3's and while attempt more FTA's, the fouling +/- is still insane (plus the magic are a much better defensive team and aggressive/younger which makes a little sense)

That would only make sense if you were counting FTA's, But its the =/-, that the lakers, rightfully are in the top handful of FTA's,

If you look at the Pacers, The get to the rim most of any team, yet get F all shots. I get the Lakers being one of the highest FTA attempts, But the +/- is shocking, Its not like they are an amazing defensive team either. They rebound well, Thats about it.


Also those stats quoted from the Ringer about 5th least allowed at the rim and allow the most 3's is plain wrong.


It's probably not a conspiracy but don't piss on my head then tell me it's raining

[SportsGuru08]

This isn’t very compelling at all

The reason it’s a conspiracy is because it happened literally the moment the referee union tweeted a whistleblowing sarcastic “sleepless nights” tweet promising the Lakers that change was coming for them. And it happened

The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.

Yes but after the Boston game, it turned up to eleven. All of a sudden, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroeder started getting 2006 Dwyane Wade calls. I lost track of how many times the Lakers would have a 10, 15, or 20+ free throw advantage while getting outscored in the paint.

[NyKnicks1714]

I'm the first one that mentioned it's been two years in a row. Do you know much of a coincidence that would be if it was just natural? Because it's not just about the Lakers getting calls, for there to be a disparity their opponents regardless of which team in the entire NBA, have to not get calls and we're in season two of it. Practically impossible.

No one said it's a coincidence. You're acting like FT differential is just some random thing; if it was, you'd have a great case. It's largely based on both their offensive and defensive game-plans, but I have yet to encounter a single person here who disagrees with me and is willing to actually get into that discussion.

So now you're saying it's just the Lakers play style to not only get free throws but prevent their opponent regardless of which other 29 teams they are from getting them?

It's exactly their strategy on defense (and honestly I don't even think it's a good one). Anyone who has watched them play a few times can see this. They minimize the number of FT's their opponents take but at the expense of giving their opponents more open looks at threes (and long twos) than most other teams do.

Not going to pretend to know more than Darvin Ham, but it hasn't proven to be a terribly successful strategy IMO. They're average to slightly below average on defense which seems to be about the minimum they can be with their personnel. A more conventional strategy would serve them better in my view.

[ChipotleWest]

Without the free throw disparity, are the Lakers even a play in team?

Guess the NBA can't have the most well known player sitting at home, which he did the season before the free throw disparity. And with it suddenly he's in the WCF.

[boomershadow]

Pacers fans were in an uproar after the 43-16 free throw disparity a few games ago. Heck, the coach was on about it on live TV.

"Thought our guys really battled in this game, there were just certain things that were impossible to overcome," Carlisle said. "The 27 free-throw differential is one, and the 17 foul differential is the other. And I'll leave it at that."

[Upperclass]

Look up the Pacers v Lakers freethrow disparity in the in-season tourney game..

[JustBuzzin]

Are we shocked?

I mean just watch these Nat'l tv debate shows. They discuss the Lakers even when they suck. The NBA is kind of a joke at this point when your main storyline is the Lakers making the playoffs.

[SNPA]

Shaq wears Webber’s ring.

[KyRo23]

Look up the Pacers v Lakers freethrow disparity in the in-season tourney game..

stop...

Pacers 33 FTs
Lakers 35 FTs

The rigging of the century. Lakers dominated that game in ever way

[ballzboyee]

Rookie analysis by the Ringer, for sure. If this kind of statistical outlier showed up at a casino, the Feds would raid the place and shut it down. Why is the Ringer using a general trend model to explain away a 1 in a Gabillion outlier, when we have shooting chart data on exactly when, who,and where on the court these fouls occur? This is how you would conduct the analysis... on a shot-by-shot basis and then compare to similar players -- not team trends. It just so happens with the shot chart data, we can find out exactly what kind of shooting fouls would lead to such a wild and unexplainable variance in calls. If you are looking at numbers at a casino or some other online betting venture and you see numbers like this, don't walk... but run in the opposite direction. Take your money and don't put in on the Lakers games. It only takes a fraction of percentages on these types of subjective calls to cause huge swings in betting results. This is almost an absolute smoking gun in my opinion that some of these kinds are being influenced by... shall we say... creative ref/league intervention.

[jkvonny]

Ha!!

This is no shocker.
Lakers been gettin whistle friendly calls for years. It is what it is.

[ejftw]

Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.

[HMFFL]

Man, I only wish Norm Powell got the calls Reaves does.

Norm has always the a player that would evolve into greatness but he's looking like he's reached his ceiling.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

[ejftw]

The disparity existed before the Celtics game as well as after, and I've repeatedly listed a myriad of factors that would far more plausibly correlate to an uptick.

Most of sports talk is just collectively writing fanfic and a telenovela for men though, so you do you. This is just for the audience that cares to reference analysis.

It actually didn’t.

They went

October: -1.7
November: +6.5
December: +3.4
January: +1.8 (Celtics game last game in Jan)
February: +11.9
March: +10.6
April: +8.4

It was also IMMEDIATELY after the Celtics game where there was an uptick. Like you can pinpoint it to the exact day.

I mean it must be the world’s biggest coincidence it happened right after the Lakers organisation complained about the calls in the Celtics game.

There's as much evidence to support the idea that they started getting a favorable whistle after that game as there is to support the idea that they were getting an unfavorable one prior. You haven't demonstrated why one of those is the case and not the other.

And I can predict the responses I'll get: "as if the Lakers would ever get an unfavorable whistle", etc. Cool, but that's not anything.

Why would he need to demonstrate they got unfavorable calls?

Such a weird counter attempt to the facts showing that the Lakers got a biased whistle like very little, if any, other.