Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery?

[Johnny Bball]

Detroit is a ghost town. They should be lucky they still have a NBA franchise.

You don't have much knowledge of what Detroit is like.

[JustBuzzin]

Detroit is a ghost town. They should be lucky they still have a NBA franchise.

You don't have much knowledge of what Detroit is like.

Watch on YouTube

[Johnny Bball]

Detroit is a ghost town. They should be lucky they still have a NBA franchise.

You don't have much knowledge of what Detroit is like.

Watch on YouTube

Like I said... you don't know. It is what it is.

Go to Detroit and you will find the downtown/waterfront largely rebuilt. And not a ghost town. And its not the 70's and 80's currently.

[JustBuzzin]

You don't have much knowledge of what Detroit is like.

Watch on YouTube

Like I said... you don't know. It is what it is.

Go to Detroit and you will find the downtown/waterfront largely rebuilt. And not a ghost town.

Buddy said go to Detroit. Are you paying me for that trip then I might think about it. If not then good luck finding me in that dump.

[Johnny Bball]

Buddy said go to Detroit. Are you paying me for that trip then I might think about it. If not then good luck finding me in that dump.

I get it. Its hard to have a passport, or even travel within your own country, or even state. But if you weren't trying to troll other fans or talking straight out your ass you might know what has happened in Detroit.

[Courant]

In the last 4 years, Detroit has had a number 1 pick, 3 top 5 picks, and 4 top 10 picks. They have passed on Maxey, Hali, IQ, Barnes, Mobley, Sengun, Wagner, Jaylen Williams, Mathurin, Sharpe, Cason Wallace, Podz, Cam Whitmore and JJJ to select Hayes, Cunnigham, Ivey and Thompson.

If you maintain they are bad through no fault of their own, you have to tell me you can't build a very promising roster from the above misses + the players they ended up selecting. At some point, it's simply a function of bad team management. THAT should not be rewarded. I love that the odds have flattened and I'd take it a step further and say no team should be able to pick top 5 in 3 consecutive drafts.

Detroit has spent the last four lottery picks on perimeter players who struggle with shooting: Killian Hayes (No. 7, 2020), Cade Cunningham (No. 1, 2021), Jaden Ivey (No. 5, 2022), and Ausar Thompson (No. 5, 2023). At age 22, Hayes is already out of the league because of his offensive woes. It's hard to win in the NBA without shooters when shooting and spacing are so important in the league now.

[whitehops]

it is kind of crazy that if your team finishes last in the league you're still more likely to get the 5th pick then get a top 3 pick. it's MORE likely that a team from 8-14 gets the first overall pick than the 1st team keep the 1st pick.

personally i think the odds should be somewhere in the middle between the current ones and the old ones. it's almost like they over-corrected to deter tanking but now the original intention of the draft order (infusing talent to the worst teams) is almost gone.

[jkvonny]

You really bringing up an 41-41 season in the weak East? That one season? 2019 (swept by the Bucks first round...no shocker).

2016 One WINNING season (44-38). Swept by the Cavs first round.

Ya, they've been pretty much rebuilding the last decade and a half.

The point is, what do you expect them to do to get the necessary star talent to not be a “crappy managed team” if they make a win now move like Blake they’re crippling themselves because there’s literally no other pipeline for talent into their team

Do small markets just have to hit on some insane draft luck like Jokic and Giannis or just accept sucking forever until the flattened odds finally work out for them

Can already see what’s forming next, Minnesota a team that got very lucky to draft Ant is going to dump 60 mil KAT on some small market bad team for 5 1st round picks because teams are pressured to win and he’s the only way they can get any talent at all

Small Market Teams
OKC
Minnesota
Denver
Cavs
Pistons
Heat
Magic
Hornets
Milwaukee
Sacramento
Grizzlies
Pelicans
Spurs
Jazz
Trailblazers
Pacers

Big Market Teams
Knicks
Nets
Bulls
Lakers
Clippers
76ers
Mavs
Raptors
Warriors
Hawks
Rockets
Wizards
Suns
Celtics

Big market teams can make stupid deals also. Look at the Clippers and the Paul George trade, the Atlanta Hawks and the Trae Young trade, or the Suns and the Beal trade. The Bucks made a win-now trade for Jrue Holiday and they won a Championship and the Nuggets made a win-now trade for Aaron Gordon and they won it all. Minnesota and Cleveland made win-now moves for Gobert and Mitchell hoping to contend.

The Nuggets and Bucks won recently. The Thunder have SGA and a million picks. The Spurs have Wemby. If Ja and Zion can get their lives together and stay healthy, the Grizzlies and Pelicans may become contenders. The Jazz have a million picks. The Pacers have Hali.

The Bulls are stuck in the play-in tournament, the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, and Warriors have players who are over the hill, and the Wizards might be the most laughable team now. It used to be the Clippers or Knicks who are from big markets.

Not sure this is a big market/small market issue.

Great post

[Lalouie]

even %odds to the lottery picks. thats 15

the rest of round 1 and 2 picks to the remaining 15 teams...thats 3picks each from the remaining 45

[BDM22]

In the last 4 years, Detroit has had a number 1 pick, 3 top 5 picks, and 4 top 10 picks. They have passed on Maxey, Hali, IQ, Barnes, Mobley, Sengun, Wagner, Jaylen Williams, Mathurin, Sharpe, Cason Wallace, Podz, Cam Whitmore and JJJ to select Hayes, Cunnigham, Ivey and Thompson.

If you maintain they are bad through no fault of their own, you have to tell me you can't build a very promising roster from the above misses + the players they ended up selecting. At some point, it's simply a function of bad team management. THAT should not be rewarded. I love that the odds have flattened and I'd take it a step further and say no team should be able to pick top 5 in 3 consecutive drafts.

Detroit has spent the last four lottery picks on perimeter players who struggle with shooting: Killian Hayes (No. 7, 2020), Cade Cunningham (No. 1, 2021), Jaden Ivey (No. 5, 2022), and Ausar Thompson (No. 5, 2023). At age 22, Hayes is already out of the league because of his offensive woes. It's hard to win in the NBA without shooters when shooting and spacing are so important in the league now.

A lot of draft experts had Killian as having a shot that would develop. KOC famously called perimeter shooting one of Killian's "strengths" . Cade shot 40% from three on high volume and high difficulty as a college freshman. Everyone thought that would be one of his biggest strengths. He was definitely the best shooter in that draft range, and still could be solid there. Looked better after fixing his shin. Ivey took a big leap up in college from year 1 to 2, to a respectable percentage that projected him as a decent 3 point shooter, and still could develop into being at least solid.

Ausar is the only one that came in with shooting as a major question mark, though you could certainly argue not to risk that when you've seen the previous 3 not improve (or get worse) at shooting.

A lot falls on who was available. Do you reach for a player you have ranked much lower if they're better at shooting? Or do you go BPA because you need top-end talent? That's what the Pistons did back when they took Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

Pistons wanted Chet in 2022. They wanted Wemby or Miller last year. They wanted guys that can shoot. But they fell to 5 and didn't get any of them.

I also reject the notion from ForeverTFC that Cade is somehow a "miss" over the players you mentioned (they're all in a similar tier) or Ivey is a "miss" compared to Sharpe/Mathurin who are also in the same tier. JDub is the only guy below that is obviously a massive improvement and no one with their job on the line was taking him over Ivey at 5.

Jury is still out on Ausar. Pointing to high floor, lower ceiling rookies like Jaime Jaquez as proof of something against a raw upside shot in year 1 is pretty pointless.

And every single GM in history has a laundry list of guys they've "passed on". Every one. Show me one GM that got the best player every time or a majority of the time. You can't talk about dudes that get passed on by 25 teams like, "why didn't you take him #1?!?" but of course these discussions always come down to revisionist history.

[WentzerWuver]

In the last 4 years, Detroit has had a number 1 pick, 3 top 5 picks, and 4 top 10 picks. They have passed on Maxey, Hali, IQ, Barnes, Mobley, Sengun, Wagner, Jaylen Williams, Mathurin, Sharpe, Cason Wallace, Podz, Cam Whitmore and JJJ to select Hayes, Cunnigham, Ivey and Thompson.

If you maintain they are bad through no fault of their own, you have to tell me you can't build a very promising roster from the above misses + the players they ended up selecting. At some point, it's simply a function of bad team management. THAT should not be rewarded. I love that the odds have flattened and I'd take it a step further and say no team should be able to pick top 5 in 3 consecutive drafts.

Detroit has spent the last four lottery picks on perimeter players who struggle with shooting: Killian Hayes (No. 7, 2020), Cade Cunningham (No. 1, 2021), Jaden Ivey (No. 5, 2022), and Ausar Thompson (No. 5, 2023). At age 22, Hayes is already out of the league because of his offensive woes. It's hard to win in the NBA without shooters when shooting and spacing are so important in the league now.

A lot of draft experts had Killian as having a shot that would develop. KOC famously called perimeter shooting one of Killian's "strengths" . Cade shot 40% from three on high volume and high difficulty as a college freshman. Everyone thought that would be one of his biggest strengths. He was definitely the best shooter in that draft range, and still could be solid there. Looked better after fixing his shin. Ivey took a big leap up in college from year 1 to 2, to a respectable percentage that projected him as a decent 3 point shooter, and still could develop into being at least solid.

Ausar is the only one that came in with shooting as a major question mark, though you could certainly argue not to risk that when you've seen the previous 3 not improve (or get worse) at shooting.

A lot falls on who was available. Do you reach for a player you have ranked much lower if they're better at shooting? Or do you go BPA because you need top-end talent? That's what the Pistons did back when they took Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

Pistons wanted Chet in 2022. They wanted Wemby or Miller last year. They wanted guys that can shoot. But they fell to 5 and didn't get any of them.

I also reject the notion from ForeverTFC that Cade is somehow a "miss" over the players you mentioned (they're all in a similar tier) or Ivey is a "miss" compared to Sharpe/Mathurin who are also in the same tier. JDub is the only guy below that is obviously a massive improvement and no one with their job on the line was taking him over Ivey at 5.

And every single GM in history has a laundry list of guys they've "passed on". Every one. Show me one GM that got the best player every time or a majority of the time. You can't talk about dudes that get passed on by 25 teams like, "why didn't you take him #1?!?" but of course these discussions always come down to revisionist history.

Passing up on Hali was worse then passing up on Melo or Wade.

Never draft Frenchmens in the top 10. Noted for future reference.

[BDM22]

Detroit has spent the last four lottery picks on perimeter players who struggle with shooting: Killian Hayes (No. 7, 2020), Cade Cunningham (No. 1, 2021), Jaden Ivey (No. 5, 2022), and Ausar Thompson (No. 5, 2023). At age 22, Hayes is already out of the league because of his offensive woes. It's hard to win in the NBA without shooters when shooting and spacing are so important in the league now.

A lot of draft experts had Killian as having a shot that would develop. KOC famously called perimeter shooting one of Killian's "strengths" . Cade shot 40% from three on high volume and high difficulty as a college freshman. Everyone thought that would be one of his biggest strengths. He was definitely the best shooter in that draft range, and still could be solid there. Looked better after fixing his shin. Ivey took a big leap up in college from year 1 to 2, to a respectable percentage that projected him as a decent 3 point shooter, and still could develop into being at least solid.

Ausar is the only one that came in with shooting as a major question mark, though you could certainly argue not to risk that when you've seen the previous 3 not improve (or get worse) at shooting.

A lot falls on who was available. Do you reach for a player you have ranked much lower if they're better at shooting? Or do you go BPA because you need top-end talent? That's what the Pistons did back when they took Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

Pistons wanted Chet in 2022. They wanted Wemby or Miller last year. They wanted guys that can shoot. But they fell to 5 and didn't get any of them.

I also reject the notion from ForeverTFC that Cade is somehow a "miss" over the players they mentioned (they're all in a similar tier) or Ivey is a "miss" compared to Sharpe/Mathurin who are also in the same tier. JDub is the only guy below that is obviously a massive improvement and no one with their job on the line was taking him over Ivey at 5.

And every single GM in history has a laundry list of guys they've "passed on". Every one. Show me one GM that got the best player every time or a majority of the time. You can't talk about dudes that get passed on by 25 teams like, "why didn't you take him #1?!?" but of course these discussions always come down to revisionist history.

Passing up on Hali was worse then passing up on Melo or Wade.

Never draft Frenchmens in the top 10. Noted for future reference.

Famously there's never been a good French rookie.

[flow]

A team that has been worst in the league for three years running and struggles to win over 10 games should not be picking 5th in the draft. For three years in a row. That's just dumb.

There is a reason the foundation of player drafts is based on giving the worst team from the previous season the top pick of the litter going into the next. The NBA has lost its way here.

.

[KembaWalker]

Nobody has actually addressed the avenue they expect small market bad teams to use to improve lol. You make it harder for them to get draft picks and what are they supposed to do to compete when play-in teams are landing top picks?

Everyone knows modern free agency is nothing but absolutely crippling for these kinds of teams, you have to pay a hefty premium, usually max or close to max for 2nd rate players. I saw this on my team with Rozier and Hayward, a guy that can’t even score a point on a playoff team is hosing us for 30 mil because we wanted to “compete” and he was the best available at the time. The trade market has been a disaster for years, you have to mortgage your entire asset collection for a guy like Gobert or Beal, so that stuff only makes sense for teams with a good roster trying to get over the final hump.

You’re basically taking bad small market teams and telling them to be more competitive but just taking away options for them. They have to draft better at 5-10 than teams 1-5 and not only that but draft better enough to overtake the existing talent differential. It’s very dumb

[jbk1234]

I have a problem with play-in teams being eligible for the lottery. I also think the worst team in the NBA should be a lock for a top-4 pick. What happened to the Pistons is ridiculous .

[ForeverTFC]

In the last 4 years, Detroit has had a number 1 pick, 3 top 5 picks, and 4 top 10 picks. They have passed on Maxey, Hali, IQ, Barnes, Mobley, Sengun, Wagner, Jaylen Williams, Mathurin, Sharpe, Cason Wallace, Podz, Cam Whitmore and JJJ to select Hayes, Cunnigham, Ivey and Thompson.

If you maintain they are bad through no fault of their own, you have to tell me you can't build a very promising roster from the above misses + the players they ended up selecting. At some point, it's simply a function of bad team management. THAT should not be rewarded. I love that the odds have flattened and I'd take it a step further and say no team should be able to pick top 5 in 3 consecutive drafts.

Detroit has spent the last four lottery picks on perimeter players who struggle with shooting: Killian Hayes (No. 7, 2020), Cade Cunningham (No. 1, 2021), Jaden Ivey (No. 5, 2022), and Ausar Thompson (No. 5, 2023). At age 22, Hayes is already out of the league because of his offensive woes. It's hard to win in the NBA without shooters when shooting and spacing are so important in the league now.

A lot of draft experts had Killian as having a shot that would develop. KOC famously called perimeter shooting one of Killian's "strengths" . Cade shot 40% from three on high volume and high difficulty as a college freshman. Everyone thought that would be one of his biggest strengths. He was definitely the best shooter in that draft range, and still could be solid there. Looked better after fixing his shin. Ivey took a big leap up in college from year 1 to 2, to a respectable percentage that projected him as a decent 3 point shooter, and still could develop into being at least solid.

Ausar is the only one that came in with shooting as a major question mark, though you could certainly argue not to risk that when you've seen the previous 3 not improve (or get worse) at shooting.

A lot falls on who was available. Do you reach for a player you have ranked much lower if they're better at shooting? Or do you go BPA because you need top-end talent? That's what the Pistons did back when they took Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

Pistons wanted Chet in 2022. They wanted Wemby or Miller last year. They wanted guys that can shoot. But they fell to 5 and didn't get any of them.

I also reject the notion from ForeverTFC that Cade is somehow a "miss" over the players you mentioned (they're all in a similar tier) or Ivey is a "miss" compared to Sharpe/Mathurin who are also in the same tier. JDub is the only guy below that is obviously a massive improvement and no one with their job on the line was taking him over Ivey at 5.

Jury is still out on Ausar. Pointing to high floor, lower ceiling rookies like Jaime Jaquez as proof of something against a raw upside shot in year 1 is pretty pointless.

And every single GM in history has a laundry list of guys they've "passed on". Every one. Show me one GM that got the best player every time or a majority of the time. You can't talk about dudes that get passed on by 25 teams like, "why didn't you take him #1?!?" but of course these discussions always come down to revisionist history.

I didn’t mean to imply that Cade or Ivey were not the correct decision. Obviously the only real miss is Hayes. What I meant to display was the talent available to the Pistons, both in who they selected and who they didn’t. My point is, when you have that much talent that you can choose from, being the worst team in the league 3 years in a row is simply a management and roster construction problem.

[JonFromVA]

No, losing shouldn't be rewarded. Its not like any of the bottom 10 teams are great.

Why do people say this for the NBA but not in the NFL or MLB draft?

Bad teams are bad because they dont have good players, so lets punish bad teams more because they dont have good players?

There are only 5 players per team on a basketball court, but the NFL should definitely consider a draft lottery given then influence a great QB pick can have. MLB recently added one.

So, yes, the goal is to help bad teams, but not encourage teams to be bad. This is their best compromise at the moment.

[doogie_hauser]

I wonder if the effect of Atlanta winning the lotto could result in some treadmill teams in future try bomb out in the play in tournament (especially if it's a stacked draft class)

A team like Chicago (for example) would be much better off getting a high calibre talent in the lottery than make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed and bomb out predictably in the first round

[JonFromVA]

I wonder if the effect of Atlanta winning the lotto could result in some treadmill teams in future try bomb out in the play in tournament (especially if it's a stacked draft class)

A team like Chicago (for example) would be much better off getting a high calibre talent in the lottery than make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed and bomb out predictably in the first round

Some teams actually care about things like extra playoff revenue and the games themselves are a measure of how good the team & coach are otherwise Quinn Snyder would likely still be employed and the media wouldn't be filled with Trae Young trade speculation.

[doogie_hauser]

I wonder if the effect of Atlanta winning the lotto could result in some treadmill teams in future try bomb out in the play in tournament (especially if it's a stacked draft class)

A team like Chicago (for example) would be much better off getting a high calibre talent in the lottery than make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed and bomb out predictably in the first round

Some teams actually care about things like extra playoff revenue and the games themselves are a measure of how good the team & coach are otherwise Quinn Snyder would likely still be employed and the media wouldn't be filled with Trae Young trade speculation.

Synder is still the Hawks coach.

Losing that play in game to the Bulls (ironically) is one of the richest/beneficial losses in Hawks history (despite the perceived weakness of this Years draft)

On the flip side Chicago would have won the lottery based on the algorithm this year, but instead end up with a non franchise changing pick at 11. Lol