2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC)

Moderators: cupcakesnake, Domejandro, infinite11285, Harry Garris, ken6199, Dirk, bisme37, KingDavid, zimpy27, bwgood77

User avatar
SFour
RealGM
Posts: 38,723
And1: 58,742
Joined: Apr 07, 2012
   

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#201 » by SFour » Sun May 12, 2024 7:54 pm

azcatz11 wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:
Chuck Everett wrote:Gotta go to the Raps forum after this. Should be good comedy.


You can just talk to me if you wanna feel our misery lol


Hate to say this but Yall never should’ve traded OG. Biggest mistake by Massai imo


I don't think any Raptors fan regrets the OG trade....both him and Siakam will make too much money, and they weren't producing us the results (wins) that would justify the contracts.
HangTime
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,128
And1: 3,611
Joined: Oct 18, 2011

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#202 » by HangTime » Sun May 12, 2024 7:55 pm

Could you see something like

Trae Young
for
#4, #8, Future 1st, capfiller

-----
Atlanta goes really young like OKC did.

Bring in #1, #4, #8 as a new Core.

Has any team ever gone into training camp with 3 top 10 picks that season?
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 55,835
And1: 15,477
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#203 » by shrink » Sun May 12, 2024 7:55 pm

NyKnicks1714 wrote:
shrink wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:
Everyone celebrated the change a few years ago.

The general public was overly concerned with tanking, moreso than parity and the need for top lottery picks to go to teams and fanbases that need hope.

In the NBA, top picks can make or break franchises, but a good system needs to differentiate between tankers, and teams that are truly bad and need help.


No sport has a system like that. You're basically talking about a committee of some kind deciding which teams are worthy of good lottery odds and which aren't.

No, I would suggest putting a team’s lottery position be decided by a weighted average of the last three seasons records. It also discourages teams from tanking because a team only gets a fraction of the draft effect for one year of tanking, and three years of tanking is very expensive,
User avatar
The Moose
General Manager
Posts: 9,183
And1: 5,151
Joined: Apr 18, 2012
Location: Australia
 

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#204 » by The Moose » Sun May 12, 2024 7:56 pm

BDM22 wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:A lot of outrage from Pistons fan but they had a 47.9% chance of getting the 5th pick. Not like this was some crazy outcome with respect to Detroit's result.

It's not a crazy outcome given the percentages. It's just kinda crazy that the odds are setup like that.


falling to 5th 3 years in a row actually is very unlikely given the odds, less than 10%
Image
bstein14
RealGM
Posts: 31,018
And1: 8,201
Joined: Jun 22, 2001

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#205 » by bstein14 » Sun May 12, 2024 7:56 pm

Pistons got the #1 pick in the year where everyone in the top 6 ended up being pretty good.

Missed out when #1 picks were franchise players like Banchero and Wemby. Honestly this one doesn't hurt as much being a Pistons fan because its pretty likely that #5 is close to #1 or #2 in this draft no one really stands out as a game changer.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 55,835
And1: 15,477
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#206 » by shrink » Sun May 12, 2024 7:57 pm

Contention: The current NBA lottery system is flawed because it doesn’t do its best to promote parity, and it encourages tanking.

Problem: No other major professional can be so impacted by a superstar draftee as the NBA. Only five players are on the court at one time, and they play both offense and defense. This makes it critical that these potential superstars go to the franchises where they are needed most. A system that makes it economically correct to tank to get these high-value players is flawed. This system must differentiate between truly bad teams from artificially bad ones, who are tanking or are already a good team which has a brief down year (usually through injury).

Solution: The lottery system order should be based on a weighted average of win/loss.

50% on the record for last season
30% on the record of the season before that
20% on the record of the season before that.

This system differentiates truly bad teams. Tanking is an economic cost to franchises in ticket sales, merchandise, etc. in this system, tanking has only half the impact on a team’s draft position. Also, it would take three full years of tanking to get the full effect, which would be very expensive.

The system differentiates temporarily bad teams, often when a star gets a one-season injury. The Warriors did not need the #2 pick in the 2020 draft, and the Spurs didn’t need Tim Duncan when David Robinson missed a year.

The system rewards truly bad teams, who’s franchises (and their fanbase), need a better shot at a potential superstar. The system promotes parity, and it promotes profitability, instead of leaving non-free agent destinations without hope.

To complete the process, I would recommend that you continue to still use lottery odds, but with less probability that distant teams get top picks. Also, since this system is intentionally slower to respond, I would propose that if a team gets a top 4 lottery pick, it is ineligible for another top 4 pick the next season (and slides to number 5). This gives more teams a chance at a superstar, and doesn’t reward a team who has been bad for two years, just got one, but he hasn’t taken the team out of the lottery in his rookie season (think Wembanyama).


Top lottery players are always going to be extremely valuable, and the NBA needs a system that insures that they go to truly bad teams for parity and hope. This simple improvement will increase those odds, and simultaneously decrease tanking.

Today’s results show the system is flawed. DET needed a lottery pick most, far more than ATL who was in the Play In Tournament.
Pointgod
RealGM
Posts: 21,195
And1: 21,901
Joined: Jun 28, 2014

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#207 » by Pointgod » Sun May 12, 2024 7:57 pm

bisme37 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter


Wow so Rockets have two lottery picks? Good for them.
canada_dry
Head Coach
Posts: 6,910
And1: 5,380
Joined: Aug 22, 2017

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#208 » by canada_dry » Sun May 12, 2024 8:00 pm

NYPiston wrote:
Dominator83 wrote:Stop tanking


Oh please, don't give us this crap. The Pistons have gotten screwed more than every other team outside of that one time in the Cade draft going back decades so we have a reason to complain. All this suffering for 4 straight #5 picks. Garbage
Thats the result of tanking. So as he said stop tanking lol

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app
Iwasawitness
Veteran
Posts: 2,895
And1: 3,444
Joined: Sep 05, 2023
     

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#209 » by Iwasawitness » Sun May 12, 2024 8:00 pm

Pointgod wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter


Wow so Rockets have two lottery picks? Good for them.


Same with the Spurs, 4th and 8th pick.
xxSnEaKyPxx wrote:NBA: Stop kicking, punching, choking, and stomping on people.

Draymond: This is too much, I quit!
One_and_Done
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,257
And1: 3,052
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#210 » by One_and_Done » Sun May 12, 2024 8:02 pm

Chuck Everett wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:This really came up good for the Spurs. 2 lotto picks and the Hawks have to give minutes to a rookie #1 pick in a year they owe their pick to them.


This is great for the Hawks because they needed frontcourt help. Now if they trade Dejounte, they will have Okongwu, Capela and Sarr, plus Jalen, Bogdan, Hunter, Bufkin and whatever they get for Murray. They should be back improved next year.

Rookies almost NEVER help you win in yr 1, even when they are good prospects. This will maybe help the Hawks long term, but short term helps the Spurs, because Atlanta will be obligated to give this rookie unearned minutes where he kills them.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
zshawn10
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,721
And1: 4,664
Joined: Jul 27, 2015
     

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#211 » by zshawn10 » Sun May 12, 2024 8:02 pm

Pointgod wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter


Wow so Rockets have two lottery picks? Good for them.



They got 12 so it conveys to the Thunder
BigGargamel
Veteran
Posts: 2,999
And1: 6,571
Joined: Jan 28, 2020
     

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#212 » by BigGargamel » Sun May 12, 2024 8:03 pm

shrink wrote:
Contention: The current NBA lottery system is flawed because it doesn’t do its best to promote parity, and it encourages tanking.

Problem: No other major professional can be so impacted by a superstar draftee as the NBA. Only five players are on the court at one time, and they play both offense and defense. This makes it critical that these potential superstars go to the franchises where they are needed most. A system that makes it economically correct to tank to get these high-value players is flawed. This system must differentiate between truly bad teams from artificially bad ones, who are tanking or are already a good team which has a brief down year (usually through injury).

Solution: The lottery system order should be based on a weighted average of win/loss.

50% on the record for last season
30% on the record of the season before that
20% on the record of the season before that.

This system differentiates truly bad teams. Tanking is an economic cost to franchises in ticket sales, merchandise, etc. in this system, tanking has only half the impact on a team’s draft position. Also, it would take three full years of tanking to get the full effect, which would be very expensive.

The system differentiates temporarily bad teams, often when a star gets a one-season injury. The Warriors did not need the #2 pick in the 2020 draft, and the Spurs didn’t need Tim Duncan when David Robinson missed a year.

The system rewards truly bad teams, who’s franchises (and their fanbase), need a better shot at a potential superstar. The system promotes parity, and it promotes profitability, instead of leaving non-free agent destinations without hope.

To complete the process, I would recommend that you continue to still use lottery odds, but with less probability that distant teams get top picks. Also, since this system is intentionally slower to respond, I would propose that if a team gets a top 4 lottery pick, it is ineligible for another top 4 pick the next season (and slides to number 5). This gives more teams a chance at a superstar, and doesn’t reward a team who has been bad for two years, just got one, but he hasn’t taken the team out of the lottery in his rookie season (think Wembanyama).


Top lottery players are always going to be extremely valuable, and the NBA needs a system that insures that they go to truly bad teams for parity and hope. This simple improvement will increase those odds, and simultaneously decrease tanking.

Today’s results show the system is flawed. DET needed a lottery pick most, far more than ATL who was in the Play In Tournament.


Wait. A team that played in the play-in just got the number one pick. Isn't that what everyone wanted? To curtail this imaginary thing known as "tanking"?
User avatar
NyKnicks1714
RealGM
Posts: 24,698
And1: 25,166
Joined: Nov 20, 2001
   

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#213 » by NyKnicks1714 » Sun May 12, 2024 8:06 pm

The Moose wrote:
BDM22 wrote:
NyKnicks1714 wrote:A lot of outrage from Pistons fan but they had a 47.9% chance of getting the 5th pick. Not like this was some crazy outcome with respect to Detroit's result.

It's not a crazy outcome given the percentages. It's just kinda crazy that the odds are setup like that.


falling to 5th 3 years in a row actually is very unlikely given the odds, less than 10%


That's more likely than any other outcome though, by far (if we're talking any of 5-7 in 2022).
User avatar
Dominator83
RealGM
Posts: 19,734
And1: 30,130
Joined: Jan 16, 2005
Location: NBA Hell

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#214 » by Dominator83 » Sun May 12, 2024 8:06 pm

BigGargamel wrote:
shrink wrote:
Contention: The current NBA lottery system is flawed because it doesn’t do its best to promote parity, and it encourages tanking.

Problem: No other major professional can be so impacted by a superstar draftee as the NBA. Only five players are on the court at one time, and they play both offense and defense. This makes it critical that these potential superstars go to the franchises where they are needed most. A system that makes it economically correct to tank to get these high-value players is flawed. This system must differentiate between truly bad teams from artificially bad ones, who are tanking or are already a good team which has a brief down year (usually through injury).

Solution: The lottery system order should be based on a weighted average of win/loss.

50% on the record for last season
30% on the record of the season before that
20% on the record of the season before that.

This system differentiates truly bad teams. Tanking is an economic cost to franchises in ticket sales, merchandise, etc. in this system, tanking has only half the impact on a team’s draft position. Also, it would take three full years of tanking to get the full effect, which would be very expensive.

The system differentiates temporarily bad teams, often when a star gets a one-season injury. The Warriors did not need the #2 pick in the 2020 draft, and the Spurs didn’t need Tim Duncan when David Robinson missed a year.

The system rewards truly bad teams, who’s franchises (and their fanbase), need a better shot at a potential superstar. The system promotes parity, and it promotes profitability, instead of leaving non-free agent destinations without hope.

To complete the process, I would recommend that you continue to still use lottery odds, but with less probability that distant teams get top picks. Also, since this system is intentionally slower to respond, I would propose that if a team gets a top 4 lottery pick, it is ineligible for another top 4 pick the next season (and slides to number 5). This gives more teams a chance at a superstar, and doesn’t reward a team who has been bad for two years, just got one, but he hasn’t taken the team out of the lottery in his rookie season (think Wembanyama).


Top lottery players are always going to be extremely valuable, and the NBA needs a system that insures that they go to truly bad teams for parity and hope. This simple improvement will increase those odds, and simultaneously decrease tanking.

Today’s results show the system is flawed. DET needed a lottery pick most, far more than ATL who was in the Play In Tournament.


Wait. A team that played in the play-in just got the number one pick. Isn't that what everyone wanted? To curtail this imaginary thing known as "tanking"?

I love it. I would rather reward teams stuck in mediocrity, or as we mock them around here as treadmill teams. Give them a chance to make a real improvement instead of the usual "only way to go get out of the middle is blow it up" mantra.
Fantasy Hoops/Football/Baseball fans..

For info on a forum that actually talks Fantasy sports and not spammed with soliciting leagues, PM me. The more the merrier !
User avatar
OldSchoolNoBull
General Manager
Posts: 8,620
And1: 3,805
Joined: Jun 27, 2003
Location: Ohio
 

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#215 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Sun May 12, 2024 8:07 pm

One story I'm looking at in this draft is Memphis. This was a lost season for them with the Morant suspension and then injuries to Morant, Adams, and Clarke, but they were a Top 6 team by record last season and had the #2 record in the league in 21-22, and now they have a #9 overall pick to add. It's a crapshoot in a draft like this, but if they hit on it and add a good player to a core that already consists of Morant, JJJ, Bane, Clark, and Smart, they could really bounce back next season.
scrabbarista
RealGM
Posts: 15,952
And1: 13,878
Joined: May 31, 2015

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#216 » by scrabbarista » Sun May 12, 2024 8:07 pm

zshawn10 wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter


Wow so Rockets have two lottery picks? Good for them.



They got 12 so it conveys to the Thunder


Yeah, Rockets only have one first rounder, #3.
User avatar
stoo
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,412
And1: 1,235
Joined: Jun 11, 2018
 

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#217 » by stoo » Sun May 12, 2024 8:07 pm

rockets are becoming new okc very soon.
also, atlanta is trading trae if they can. maybe someone like la teams or suns are not smart enough and take him. dejounte, good sg, jj, okongwu and sarr are a formidable starting 5
NotSinceWilt
User avatar
durden_tyler
RealGM
Posts: 17,538
And1: 7,614
Joined: Jun 04, 2003
Location: 537 Paper Street, Bradford
 

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#218 » by durden_tyler » Sun May 12, 2024 8:07 pm

Congrats Hawks! It's a lean draft but don't forget that Young-Murray backcourt is NOT working and you have the opportunity to actually rebuild properly now.
If there is no basketball in heaven, i am not going.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 55,835
And1: 15,477
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#219 » by shrink » Sun May 12, 2024 8:08 pm

Dominator83 wrote:
BigGargamel wrote:
shrink wrote:Today’s results show the system is flawed. DET needed a lottery pick most, far more than ATL who was in the Play In Tournament.


Wait. A team that played in the play-in just got the number one pick. Isn't that what everyone wanted? To curtail this imaginary thing known as "tanking"?

I love it. I would rather reward teams stuck in mediocrity, or as we mock them around here as treadmill teams. Give them a chance to make a real improvement instead of the usual "only way to go get out of the middle is blow it up" mantra.

.. at the price of keeping hopeless teams stuck in the basement, even when they aren’t trying to tank?
User avatar
Harry Garris
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 8,132
And1: 13,791
Joined: Jul 12, 2017
     

Re: 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Thread (Sunday 5/12 3pm ET on ABC) 

Post#220 » by Harry Garris » Sun May 12, 2024 8:09 pm

Man if Castle or Holland are still available at #7 that would be a dream scenario
Image

Return to The General Board